Lock-in Effect Research Articles

Formal Modelling and Automated Trade-off Analysis of Enforcement Architectures for Cryptographic Access Control in the Cloud

To facilitate the adoption of cloud by organizations, Cryptographic Access Control (CAC) is the obvious solution to control data sharing among users while preventing partially trusted Cloud Service Providers (CSP) from accessing sensitive data. Indeed, several CAC schemes have been proposed in the literature. Despite their differences, available solutions are based on a common set of entities—e.g., a data storage service or a proxy mediating the access of users to encrypted data—that operate in different (security) domains—e.g., on-premise or the CSP. However, the majority of these CAC schemes assumes a fixed assignment of entities to domains; this has security and usability implications that are not made explicit and can make inappropriate the use of a CAC scheme in certain scenarios with specific trust assumptions and requirements. For instance, assuming that the proxy runs at the premises of the organization avoids the vendor lock-in effect but may give rise to other security concerns (e.g., malicious insiders attackers). To the best of our knowledge, no previous work considers how to select the best possible architecture (i.e., the assignment of entities to domains) to deploy a CAC scheme for the trust assumptions and requirements of a given scenario. In this article, we propose a methodology to assist administrators in exploring different architectures for the enforcement of CAC schemes in a given scenario. We do this by identifying the possible architectures underlying the CAC schemes available in the literature and formalizing them in simple set theory. This allows us to reduce the problem of selecting the most suitable architectures satisfying a heterogeneous set of trust assumptions and requirements arising from the considered scenario to a decidable Multi-objective Combinatorial Optimization Problem (MOCOP) for which state-of-the-art solvers can be invoked. Finally, we show how we use the capability of solving the MOCOP to build a prototype tool assisting administrators to preliminarily perform a “What-if” analysis to explore the trade-offs among the various architectures and then use available standards and tools (such as TOSCA and Cloudify) for automated deployment in multiple CSPs.

Vocational training for unemployed youth in Latvia

We analyze the effectiveness of a vocational training (VT) programme targeting unemployed youth in Latvia, contributing to the scant literature on active labour market policies in transition countries. The programme we analyse is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme (2014–2020), the largest action launched by the European Union to combat youth unemployment after the 2008 financial crisis. Although the programme was targeted to youths aged between 15 and 29, priority was given to those younger than 25 years of age. We exploit this eligibility rule in a fuzzy regression discontinuity design framework to estimate the impact of VT participation on the probability of being employed and gross monthly labour income at given dates after the training. Using rich administrative data, we find that the age priority rule increased programme participation for the youngest group by about 10 percentage points. However, participation in the programme did not lead to statistically significant positive effects in labour market outcomes. We argue that this result could be due to some specific characteristics of the programme, namely the voucher system (potentially inducing lock-in effects) and the type of training (classroom instead of on-the-job training). Moreover, the programme was targeted at ex-ante low-employable individuals (e.g. without vocational qualifications), a fact that is confirmed by our analysis of the characteristics of the population of compliers with the age priority rule.

Water lock-in within China's economic industry based on the input-output method and social network analysis.

As one of the countries with the most severe water resource problems, China faces enormous challenges in the intensive use of water resources. Rapid economic development has led to serious waste of water resources in the industry, resulting in path dependence on water-consuming technologies, namely the concept of 'water lock-in'. This study aims to estimate the water lock-in effects in various industries in China from 1997 to 2017. To this end, a novel combination of the input-output analysis and social network analysis methods is used to calculate 'integrated, intra-sectorial and inter-sectorial' water lock-in, identify the complex water resource dependence relationship and explore the dynamic evolution process of the lock-in mechanism. The research results are as follows. (1) From 1997 to 2017, the integrated, intra-sectorial and inter-sectorial water lock-in coefficients decreased by 82.08%, 77.92% and 83.14%, respectively. (2) Non-metallic minerals and other mining products underwent the largest decline in water lock-in within the sectors, whereas coal, oil and gas extraction products underwent the most significant decline in water lock-in between the sectors. (3) Water lock-in conduction is most durable and obvious from S01 (agriculture, forestry, fishery products and services) to S06 (textiles). Policy recommendations are suggested to realise the water-unlocking path.

Development of an urban household food-energy-water policy nexus dynamic simulator

Increasing pressure from population growth and climate change has placed various challenges to urban systems concerning the sustainable supply and use of food, energy and water. To achieve the synergistic and sustainable management of food, energy and water demand, the inter-linkages between the three subsystems should be explored. Taking Beijing as the case study reproducible in a like manner for other urban systems, this research aims to develop a household Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus dynamic model to explore the influence of various factors on the end-uses. Three main innovation points are included in this research. Firstly, long-term simulations from 2010 to 2050 can be provided in this model to quantitatively estimate climate change potential under possible management strategies. Secondly, three different levels of influencing factors of household resource consumption are included in this model at the same time, including individual level (behaviors), household level (appliances) and government level (resource prices). Thirdly, multiple scenarios combinations are analyzed in this research. The results demonstrate the complex interconnections among the household food-energy-water uses. What’ more, short-term effects, lag effects as well as lock-in effects can influence the policy effectiveness, so that policy combinations or complements are needed to enhance the effects.

A study on the industrial symbiosis in maritime cluster considering value chain and life cycle – case of Dalian, China

ABSTRACT Maritime clusters are conducive to promoting the development of an urban economy and maritime industry. The development of high value-added maritime industry is beneficial to upgrading a maritime cluster and improving its competitiveness. We discuss the symbiosis between ports and various value-added industries within a maritime cluster from a resource perspective, using the theory of life cycle and value chain, in order to answer the question: what role does the port play in the upgrading of maritime clusters? An empirical analysis of Dalian, China, was conducted using the Lotka-Volterra model. Our results show that resources were attracted by ports to promote the shipping industry and marine insurance in the non-decline period (NDP) of the cluster. During the declining period (DP) of the cluster, port development led to intensified resource competition and lock-in effects, destabilizing the relationships within maritime industries. Strengthening inter-industry cooperation, increasing market openness, and granting supportive policies to enterprises may rectify this decline. This study provides a reference for managers and researchers to aid in promoting the coordinated development and upgrade of maritime clusters.

Path dependency, regional variety and the dynamics of new firm creation in rooted and pioneering industries

Abstract This paper explores regional firm entry connecting insights on the role of localised path dependency with the analysis of variety in regional sectoral structures. Using data on 700 SIC5 industries across 174 NUTS3 regions in the UK between 2000 and 2014, we provide evidence of positive complementarities between industrial path dependence and regional-related variety for firm entry in rooted pre-existing industries. These are negative for entry of pioneering firms in industries new to the region, pointing to lock-in effects and the role of unrelated variety in fostering linkages and knowledge spillovers away from established trajectories.

Give it Another Try: What are the Effects of a Job Creation Scheme Especially Designed for Hard-to-Place Workers?

Previous evaluations of job creation schemes (JCS) reveal mostly negative employment effects, mainly due to inherent lock-in effects. In this paper, we assess the impact of an innovative JCS that employs a pre-selection mechanism to target programme participation on unemployed job seekers with very low integration chances, hereby reducing possible lock-in effects. Relying on high-quality administrative as well as survey data, we conduct regression-adjusted matching analyses to estimate the programme effect on integration into regular employment. Our results show that the programme did not succeed to foster labour market integration, but still entails remarkably negative employment effects in the first years after participation. We argue that this results from a principal-agent problem at the last step of the selection mechanism that may have led to cream-skimming rather than targeting on very hard to place workers. However, supplementary analyses reveal that negative effects can be avoided for subgroups with very poor employment chances in case of non-participation. These results are robust to the use of different matching estimators and definitions of non-participation. The inclusion of usually unobservable survey variables as well as placebo tests based on past employment outcomes refute concerns about endogenous selection. From a policy-perspective, these findings imply that targeting JCS on workers with very low integration chances is a key factor to avoid negative employment effects found in previous evaluations. At the methodological level, our analyses add to recent literature that assesses the credibility of non-experimental evaluations based on high-quality administrative data.

Disaster governance and institutional dynamics in times of social-ecological change: Insights from New Zealand, the Netherlands and Greece

In this paper, we engage with the ‘good disaster governance’ imperative and we attempt to empirically capture the (socio-)institutional dimensions and dynamics producing, reproducing or responding to social-ecological change and disasters. Viewing the disaster situation as a project of collective endeavour, we propose a conceptual framing of institutions building on disaster and development studies, governance of social-ecological systems, adaptive institutions research, and sociological institutionalist scholarship. We apply our analytical framework to Christchurch (New Zealand), Groningen (The Netherlands) and the island of Rhodes (Greece) through a relational comparative approach that builds on previous analyses and in-depth interviews with stakeholders. The three case-studies face diverse types of disasters that we conceptually approach around moments of ‘abrupt change’. For Christchurch, the abrupt change refers to the earthquake of February 2011. For Groningen, it is a ‘big’ earthquake with a magnitude of 3.6 in 2012, and for Rhodes the intense water shortages or ‘water crisis’ in July 2017. The results reveal commonalities among the case studies around the crucial role institutions play in creating or exacerbating disasters; technical and structural challenges hindering institutions' adaptiveness; and institutional logics with lock-in effects leading to maladaptation. Our framing and discussion elucidate under-examined and under-theorized aspects of the ‘adaptive governance’ and ‘adaptive institutions’ concepts, and provides the basis for a socio-ecologically and socio-institutionally nuanced analytical approach to the pragmatics of disaster governance.

Do rural school closures lead to local population decline?

In Denmark, many rural schools have been closed since 2000. These school closures have often resulted in heated debates between local politicians and the local population. Locals have feared that closing their school would have adverse effects and lead to local population decline. Meanwhile, previous research has found mixed evidence on the population effect of rural school closures. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature by looking at the case of Denmark. The paper analyses the local population effects of the simultaneous closure of eight village schools in 2011 in the same peripheral municipality in Denmark. The case study offers a quasi-experimental setting, and the population effects are estimated through an ordinary and a flexible difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis. Overall, the results show clear evidence of a negative population effect of rural school closures. The ordinary DiD analysis shows a population decline of 7.6 percentage points during the 10-year post-closure period. The flexible DiD analysis points to long-term effects, as the population decline first becomes statistically significant from the sixth year following the closures and onwards. To qualify the results of the econometric tests, we report findings from interviews with local people carried out in 2015 in four of the eight rural communities. Among other things, findings from interviews point to lock-in effects in terms of social capital and housing markets, which helps to understand the dominance of long-term population effects from school closures.

Decision Drivers for Search Engine Usage – The Mediating and Moderating Role of Lock-in Effects

This study analyzes the central factors influencing the satisfaction and future use of search engines. It examines the influence of technological lock-in effects (e. g. operating systems / browsers providing pre-settings), as well as basic product- and brand-related factors (e. g. search results, user experience, brand image). Data was collected via a quantitative online survey in Germany, which resulted in 236 respondents providing statements about their most recently used search engine. The data shows that all independent variables have a strong impact on the satisfaction with a search engine as well as future usage and explain a lot of the variance of the dependent variables. The satisfaction with the core product has the strongest impact, followed by brand-related aspects and user experience. The results also show an impact of a search engine preset in the browser effects that influences the role of brand and the evaluation of different product characteristics.

Study on the Evolution of the Source-Flow-Sink Pattern of China’s Chunyun Population Migration Network: Evidence from Tencent Big Data

We construct a comprehensive analysis framework of population flow in China. To do so, we take prefecture-level administrative regions as the basic research unit of population flow and use source-sink theory and flow space theory. Additionally, we reveal the dynamic differentiation of population flow patterns and the evolution of population source-flow-sink systems. We try to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of population development policies and regional spatial governance. The results show the following: (1) The Hu Huanyong Line has a strong spatial lock-in effect on population flow. Additionally, provincial capital cities, headed by Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Hefei, have played an increasingly prominent role in population flow. (2) The developed eastern coastal areas have undertaken China’s main population outflow. The net population flow is spatially high in the middle of the region and low on the two sides, exhibiting an “inverted U-shaped” pattern. Furthermore, the borders of the central provinces form a continuous population inflow area. (3) The hierarchical characteristics of the population flow network are obvious. Strong connections occur between developed cities, and the effect of distance attenuation is weakened. The medium connection network is consistent with the traffic skeleton, and population flow exhibits a strong “bypass effect”. (4) The source and sink areas are divided into four regions similar to China’s three major economic belts. The 10 regions can be refined to identify the main population source and sink regions, and the 18 regions can basically reflect China’s level of urbanization. The network of the population flow source-flow-sink system exhibits notable nesting characteristics. As a result, it creates a situation in which the source areas on both sides of the east and the west are convective to the middle. The hierarchical differentiation of the source-flow sink system is related to the differences between the east and the west and between the north and the south, as well as local differences in China.

Effect of frequency lock-in on the dynamic response and heat transfer from a circular cylinder at low Reynolds number

Numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the flow physics and heat transfer from an undamped freely oscillating circular cylinder at low Reynolds numbers, for an incompressible, constant property, Newtonian fluid. Mass ratio is fixed at 10, while the Prandtl number is 7. Natural frequency of the system is set equal to the vortex shedding frequency of a stationary circular cylinder at Reynolds number of 100. New results pertaining to the oscillation trajectory shapes, vortex formation length, influenced wake width and average Nusselt number in view of the pre lock-in, lock-in and post lock-in flow regimes are presented and discussed in detail. Recirculation bubble behind the cylinder disappears for large oscillation amplitudes during lock-in; while a pair of counter-rotating vortices, having opposite rotational directions to what might be expected, is observed behind the cylinder in the mean vorticity field, which alters the shape of the cylinder trajectory. Average drag coefficient is shown to be directly proportional to the vortex formation length while it is inversely related to the influenced wake width. Streamwise oscillations are noted to be more sensitive to the increasing Reynolds number during lock-in, as compared to the transverse oscillations. Progressively increasing space and time-averaged Nusselt number values comparably higher than stationary cylinder are observed as Reynolds number increases. The behavior of time-averaged-local Nusselt number varies with position around the surface of the cylinder. The maximum local Nusselt number on the surface of the cylinder is also seen to vary both in magnitude as well as location on the surface of the cylinder in a direct correspondence with the oscillation amplitudes of the cylinder. Moreover, a regression correlation is proposed which relates Reynolds number, root-mean-squared streamwise and transverse oscillation amplitudes and Strouhal number with the space and time-averaged Nusselt number.

Rethinking the carbon dioxide emissions of road sector: Integrating advanced vehicle technologies and construction supply chains mitigation options under decarbonization plans

The single life cycle assessment on advanced vehicle technologies and clean construction supply chains offers the potential for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from vehicle operation and road infrastructure separately. However, the impact of the combination of these two aspects on CO2 emissions mitigation of road life cycle is less known even though it is critical to the longer-term road transportation decarbonization and long-range policy making for transportation sector, especially under latest worldwide net-zero carbon emission goal. In this study, taking a real project-level asphalt pavement freeway with 15-year life span in China as a case, the amount and hot spots of CO2 emissions of road transportation were evaluated by considering emissions abatement measures of advanced vehicle technologies and construction supply chains which are theoretically practicable in near-, mid-term and long-term future (from 2020 to 2035). Furthermore, a scenario-based sensitivity analysis on different increasing scope together with various increasing degree of abatement levels over time for these measures is provided. Results demonstrate that the timely implementation of combined decarbonation measures of advanced vehicle technologies and construction supply chains by 2035 could reduce 16.3% of total CO2 emissions from a road life cycle. In detail, for maintenance activities and use phase, total CO2 emissions reduce 32% and 16.2% separately. The construction equipment still is the top emissions contributor for maintenance activities. The hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), not battery electric vehicles (EV), replaces conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) and becomes the largest source for passenger-related CO2 emissions from use phase by 2035. Findings are sensitive to assumptions regarding cleaner fuel-produced cement, construction equipment and asphalt, and the market penetration of new energy vehicle. The tight and accelerating pace of primary abatements assist in alleviating the infrastructure carbon lock-in effects caused by maintenance activities with 15% additional CO2 emissions saving, but not bring about a significant additional reduction (no more than 2.0%) for total road life cycle CO2 emissions. Current abatement measures are effective but obvious emissions mitigation substitutes of a road is still required, especially innovative road structure and cleaner supply chains inputs as well as deeper decarbonized electrified vehicle.

The governance role of shareholders and board of directors on firm performance: an eclectic governance-performance model

PurposeThis study aims to examine the governance role of shareholders and board of directors in determining firm performance through an eclectic multi-theoretic model that integrates structure and incentive functions of agency theory and capability aspect of the resource-based view.Design/methodology/approachThe research model uses a large panel data set of 2,364 UK firms over the period 2000–2010 and uses alternative specifications of the model to improve robustness.FindingsThe results show that the industry experience of major shareholders as a proxy for shareholder capability has a significant positive impact on investee firm performance. The findings also reveal that the lock-in effect of the largest shareholder has a positive impact on performance, whereas the monitoring effectiveness of shareholders is not associated with ownership concentration. Moreover, the results indicate the underlying capabilities of the board of directors and their impact on corporate performance – particularly, the interlocking directorates of executives have a positive impact on firm performance but those of non-executives have a negative one. However, the previous directorship experience of non-executives has a positive impact on performance.Research limitations/implicationsThis study presents a more comprehensive and complete understanding of the governance-performance relationship beyond the narrow or partial explanations provided by single-theory-based studies or those of investigating the effect of various governance tools separately.Practical implicationsThis study provides more insights into the capability dimension of shareholders and the role of incentives in motivating shareholders to exercise stronger oversight on the management rather than just using ownership concentration. Hence, the study can serve as valuable guidance for investors, corporate managers and policymakers.Originality/valueTo the best of the knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study that uses an eclectic philosophical approach, integrating the agency theory and resource-based view, to not only examine the impact of board of directors but also investigate the governance role of shareholders in modern corporations to understand how shareholders acquire the requisite skills and information, the best practices and processes, and ultimately use the scarce and inimitable resources that help investee firms in improving their performance.

Digital Antitrust: The Google (Android) Decisions in Russia, Turkey and India

Digital markets and new business models in multi-sided markets with certain market peculiarities (i.e., network, scale, lock-in effects) have challenged the traditional competition tools. National competition authorities (NCAs), especially younger authorities, across the globe have struggled with the investigations of anticompetitive practices in those markets. Specifically, the paper will use Google (Android) as a case study to explore the approaches taken by three competition authorities, based in Russia, Turkey and India, leading to the prohibition decisions of their national competition laws. Discussions centred on the nationalGoogle Android decisions will be placed in a broader context underpinned by recent ongoing developments of competition laws in Russia, Turkey and India. The Google Android case, digital markets, Turkish competition law, Russian competition law, Indian competition law

Important social and technical factors shaping the prospects for thermal energy storage

Thermal energy storage is likely to be integral to a sustainable, secure and affordable energy system facing ever greater challenges in matching supply and demand. Techno-economic studies have explored the potential for thermal storage deployment, but transitions in the energy system are also influenced by the activities and decisions of an array of actors. We gathered new empirical evidence from a desk-based survey on thermal energy storage in the UK and through a sociotechnical analysis explored the status and role of thermal storage in the energy transition. We find the technology remains a relatively niche approach in the UK subject to complex national and local policy and governance arrangements and the impacts of a stable fossil-based heating regime benefitting from significant lock-in effects. Whilst we acknowledge the limitations of a focus on single technology-systems to deliver the transformative energy system change required, we find thermal storage delivering both local and national benefits to support system balancing and mitigate seasonal peaks in demand, whilst having the potential to deliver other benefits. Promising innovations in business models are helping to enable thermal storage deployment, and these are also applicable to low carbon heat provision more widely.

The difficulty of policy transfer in physical education: the failure of UNESCO’s Quality Physical Education in South Africa

ABSTRACT Background Scholars have long emphasised the complexities and difficulties of educational policy transfer as educational systems develop path dependent. Purpose The case study of the Quality Physical Education (QPE) pilot project in South Africa aims to show that besides a lock-in effects in national educational policies, decoloniality, that is, a decreasing acceptance of policy approaches from the Global North in the Global South creates new transfer obstacles. Methods The case study employs a process-tracing research design. The policy revision process of the QPE project is examined in detail. Data sources include governmental reports and minutes, 17 semi-structured interviews and field notes of participant observations. The data were analysed by qualitative inductive and deductive coding. Findings The QPE project failed in its ambition to reinstate PE as standalone subject because it proved impossible to solve the substantial coordination and resource allocation problems between different ministries, the university and the school sector. The project never gained policy salience as it ignored the more fundamental problems of the educational system and the everyday experiences of South African communities. Moreover, South African stakeholders perceived the project as patronising and neo-colonial. Hence, the project rather reinforced the existing policy path, which is focused on sport as extra-curricular school activities rather than PE. Conclusion While the QPE pilot project seems to have catalysed a discussion on PE among South African stakeholders, the failure of the QPE project might indicate a growing resistance against asymmetrical policy transfer from the Global North.

Quantifying stranded assets of the coal-fired power in China under the Paris Agreement target

ABSTRACT Coal-fired power plays a critical role in China’s compliance with the Paris Agreement. This research quantifies China’s stranded coal assets under different coal capacity expansion scenarios with an integrated approach and high-precision coal-fired power database. From a top-down perspective, firstly, the pathway of China’s coal-fired power capacity consistent with the global 2°C scenario is outlined and then those stranded coal-fired power plants are identified with a bottom-up perspective. Stranded value is estimated based upon a cash flow algorithm. Results show that if coal capacity stabilizes during 2020–2030, China will only incur a sizeable yet manageable stranded asset loss (USD 55 billion, 2020–2045). However, a continued increase of coal-fired capacity, of another 200∼400 GW, would significantly enlarge the loss by 2.7∼7.2 times. Further, once commissioned coal-fired power would form a resource lock-in effect. Thus, it will miss a short-term opportunity to develop new energy sources and induce a long-term need to invest in coal-fired power negative emission technology. Therefore, halting the construction of new coal-fired plants is a low-cost and no-regret option for China. Key policy insights Even with the largest coal-fired power capacity in the world, China still has the chance to decommission the coal-fired power units gradually at a relatively low cost. Continuing to build new coal-fired power units in China will increase the risk of stranded assets, especially for North China Grid and Northwest China Grid. Taking immediate action to stop building new coal-fired power units would be the low-cost and no-regret option for China. The local financial sector needs to work with the energy sector to gradually withdraw from the coal sector and support clean and renewable energy.

A quantitative approach for the design of robust and cost-effective conservation policies under uncertain climate change: The case of grasshopper conservation in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany

Climate is a major determinant of the world's distribution of biodiversity and species ranges are expected to shift as the climate changes. For conservation policies to be cost-effective in the long run these changes need to be taken into account. To some extent, policies can be adapted over time, but transaction costs, lock-in effects and path dependence limit the extent to which such adaptation is possible. Thus it is desirable that conservation policies be designed so that they are cost-effective in the long run even without future adaptations. Given that the future climate change is highly uncertain, the policies need to be robust to climatic uncertainty. In this paper we present an approach for the robustness analysis with regard to the cost-effectiveness of conservation policies in the face of uncertain climate change. The approach is applied to the conservation of a grasshopper species in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. For the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of considered policies we develop a climate-ecological-economic model. We show that in the near future all considered policies have a similar level of robustness, while in the more distant future the policies differ substantially in their robustness and a trade-off emerges between the expected performance and robustness of a policy.

Dynamic measurements of the flow and structure oscillations to validate FSI calculations

This paper presents results of dynamic measurements of the flow and structure oscillations. We proposed a model consisting of two in-tandem flexible cylinders in the water cross-flow. During the studies, vibration acceleration amplitudes at the shedding frequency and at the cylinders natural frequency were obtained as a function of the flow velocity. The velocity pulsation and pressure pulsation spectra were determined in the flow. A relatively simple structure enabled the use of non-contact measurement systems for cross validation and uncertainty quantifications. The mutual influence of flow and structural dynamics induced by the lock-in effect between the vortex shedding frequency (or its harmonics) and the natural frequency was analyzed. These activities were conducted to generate representative data in order to validate the requirements for hydrodynamic force calculation accuracy and the methods of one-way and two-way coupled FSI calculations.