Lock-in Effect Research Articles

Humanitarianism’s Thin Red Line: Armed Escorts in Theory and Practice

In armed conflicts around the world, armed escorts are increasingly used by civilian actors in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. These escorts, at times, include peacekeepers, counter-insurgents, armed forces, armed groups or even private security companies. The use of armed actors, however, remains a critically underexplored issue. This paper will assess the theory and practice of the use of armed escorts by humanitarian actors, uncovering the legitimising discourse and the impact that armed escorts have on humanitarian principles and acceptance by local communities. It accomplishes this through a critical analysis of humanitarian guidelines and policy documents and draws from the limited research on armed escorts. The article draws from fieldwork in Sudan in 2022 to empirically show these trends in Darfur, demonstrating that the use of armed escorts by one non-governmental organisation can cause a knock-on effect to others, and that once in place, there is a lock-in effect.

How can local government capacity lift the ‘resource curse’? A study from the perspective of industrial structure transformation

Industrial transformation is crucial for sustainable urban development and economic security. Although more studies have analyzed the relationship between resource endowment and urban industrial transformation, they have failed to include the key factor of local government capacity in the analysis. Based on the panel data from 267 cities in China from 2003 to 2018, the study examines the impact of resource endowment on industrial transformation and the role of local government capacity in it by using linear models and panel threshold models. This study finds that resource endowment promotes the development of the secondary industry in urban, but hinders the development of the tertiary industry. There is a moderating effect of local government capacity that mitigates the lock-in effect of resource endowment on industrial transformation. This moderating effect demonstrates heterogeneity among cities with different levels of resource endowment and geographic locations, and the results are robust. Furthermore, this study concludes that under different local government capacity, the moderating effect of local government capacity on the relationship between resource endowment and industrial transformation is nonlinear, and it also finds that the stronger local government capacity is not the better.

Global value chain embedding and enterprise energy efficiency: A worldwide firm-level analysis

Global value chain embedding brings growth opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises, despite their continuously controversial environmental effects. This study examines the impact of global value chain embedding on the energy efficiency of small and medium-sized enterprises using a worldwide firm-level micro data. Results support that global value chain embedding significantly improves enterprise energy efficiency, and this conclusion holds even after self-selection and endogeneity are considered. Global value chain embedding promotes enterprise innovation and labor productivity through market scale and induced learning effects and improves the energy efficiency. Moreover, the evidence only supports the lock-in effect of low value-added, while the lock-in hypothesis of pollution link and foreign technology is invalid. The positive impact of global value chain embedding on energy efficiency is greater for non-high-tech industries, mainly coming from export learning effect and innovation effect. Furthermore, there is no industry heterogeneity in the lock-in effect. Country heterogeneity in the effect of global value chain embedding on energy efficiency characteristics of regional embedding and industrialization, but not to economic development and human capital.

Research on Energy Trading Mechanism Based on Individual Level Carbon Quota

High economic growth is accompanied by substantial consumption of fossil energy and significant negative externalities on the ecological environment. The global warming effect resulting from environmental pollution caused by energy has brought energy carbon emissions into the forefront of social attention. Establishing a carbon trading market is an essential measure to achieve the “double carbon” goal, with individual and household carbon emissions accounting for 70% of China’s total emissions. Constructing an individual-level carbon trading market will facilitate the efficient realization of this goal. However, addressing the challenge of handling vast amounts of data and network congestion in relation to frequent but small-scale individual carbon trading has become an urgent issue that needs to be resolved. In light of this, the present study designs a digital technology-based framework for the carbon market trading system and proposes an individual carbon asset price-based model for carbon market trading, aiming to establish a research framework for the carbon quota market. Furthermore, blockchain technology is employed as the underlying technology in the proposed carbon trading market model to cater to individual-level carbon trading services and achieve optimal matching between carbon quota suppliers, thereby enhancing profitability of the carbon trading platform. The numerical results obtained from the model demonstrate that in absence of government subsidy mechanisms, individual-level carbon trading can effectively reduce total consumer emissions. The present study successfully overcomes the carbon lock-in effect of consumer groups and achieves the generation and trading of individual carbon assets despite capital constraints. This study facilitates accumulation and trade of individual carbon resources, reduces overall consumer emissions, enhances environmental benefits at societal level, and provides a foundation for governmental decision-making.

The Effect of Volcanic Stone and Metakaolin on the Compressive Properties of Ultrahigh-Performance Concrete Cubes

Over the past few decades, ultrahigh-performance concrete (UHPC) has been widely studied and applied because of its outstanding mechanical properties, such as its high strength and notable durability. However, because of its high cost and easy shrinkage cracking during early pouring in mass concrete construction, to reduce the cost of UHPC and reduce the cracks caused by early pouring, volcanic stone was used as a new type of UHPC coarse aggregate, while metakaolin (MK) was added to the system at the same time, and then two parameters, namely the volcanic rock particle size group and the MK dispersion ratio, were set. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and thermogravimetric (TG) microanalysis methods were used to reveal the influence of changes in the material microstructure, phase composition, material composition and crystallinity of the mineral composition on the compressive properties of the UHPC cubes. The results show that the mechanical “lock-in effect” of the structure formed by the volcanic rock holes and mortar can effectively improve the shear resistance of the UHPC–volcanic rock interface, and the compressive strength of the UHPC cubes increases with the volcanic stone’s particle size. When the MK dispersion ratio is less than 4%, the cube compressive strength of the UHPC and the contents of CaCO3 crystals, C-S-H gel and travertine in the UHPC increase with an increasing MK dispersion ratio. At an age of 28 days, compared with the addition of 1% MK, the addition of 4% MK increases the production of C-S-H gel and travertine in the UHPC matrix by 24.82%. When the MK dispersion ratio is 4%, the crystallinity values of the C-S-H gel, travertine and limestone in the UHPC are greater. Adding MK at a 4% dispersion ratio can promote the crystallization of limestone into a large amount of calcite, which can increase the strength of UHPC. On the one hand, the addition of volcanic coarse aggregate results in the retention of more free water and bound water; on the other hand, it also makes it difficult to crystallize CaCO3. The combined action of MK at a 4% dispersion ratio and volcanic rock significantly inhibits CaCO3 crystallization.

A unified European hydrogen infrastructure planning to support the rapid scale-up of hydrogen production

Hydrogen will become a key player in transitioning toward a net-zero energy system. However, a clear pathway toward a unified European hydrogen infrastructure to support the rapid scale-up of hydrogen production is still under discussion. This study explores plausible pathways using a fully sector-coupled energy system model. Here, we assess the emergence of hydrogen infrastructure build-outs connecting neighboring European nations through hydrogen import and domestic production centers with Western and Central European demands via four distinct hydrogen corridors. We identify a potential lock-in effect of blue hydrogen in the medium term, highlighting the risk of long-term dependence on methane. In contrast, we show that a self-sufficient Europe relying on domestic green hydrogen by 2050 would increase yearly expenses by around 3% and require 518 gigawatts of electrolysis capacity. This study emphasizes the importance of rapidly scaling up electrolysis capacity, building hydrogen networks and storage facilities, deploying renewable electricity generation, and ensuring coherent coordination across European nations.

Implications of the EU ETS on the level-playing field between carbon capture storage & utilisation

System modelling efforts have shown that carbon capture is a key technology to enable a cost-effective reduction of hard-to-abate emissions in energy-intensive industries. The CO2 that is captured can either be utilised (CCU), or stored with carbon capture and storage (CCS). This paper examines the implications of both European carbon pricing mechanisms (ETS I & ETS II) on the level-playing field between CCS and CCU investments. Our contribution is threefold. First, we develop an equilibrium model that enables us to mimic market outcomes under different regulatory conditions. With a numerical case study applied to a fuel production chain, the model confirms that the current ETS regulation can have an adverse effect on CCU uptake. Especially with zero or low ETS II prices a lock-in effect can occur on CCS, potentially prolonging conventional refinery activities. Second, we propose an alternative approach to better integrate CCUS into the EU ETS. Results show that this approach maintains the level-playing field between CCU and CCS, regardless of any carbon price differentials. That results in a closer to Pareto optimal outcome in terms of welfare and emission abatement. Third, we present an analytic analysis to express the CCUS trade-off from a theoretical point of view. This provides generalised and concrete insights into how EU ETS influences the profitability and likelihood of CCUS. Our results help policymakers to gain a better understanding of the impact of ETS regulations on decarbonisation efforts in the industry.

Everybody’s got to learn sometime? A causal machine learning evaluation of training programmes for jobseekers in France

This paper estimates the heterogeneous impact of three types of vocational training- preparation, qualifying, and combined – on jobseekers’ return to employment using the Modified Causal Forest method. Analysing data from 33,699 individuals over 24 months, it reveals a short-term negative lock-in effect for all programmes, persisting in the medium term for combined training. Only qualifying training shows a positive medium-term effect. Seniors, low-skilled, foreign-born, and those with poor job histories benefit most, while youth and higher education levels benefit less. Targeting foreign-born individuals could significantly enhance programme effectiveness, as indicated by the clustering analysis and optimal policy trees.

Inertia of Technology Stocks: A Technology-Explicit Model for the Transition toward a Low-Carbon Global Aluminum Cycle.

Low-carbon technologies are essential for the aluminum industry to meet its climate targets despite increasing demand. However, the penetration of these technologies is often delayed due to the long lifetimes of the industrial assets currently in use. Existing models and scenarios for the aluminum sector omit this inertia and therefore potentially overestimate the realistic mitigation potential. Here, we introduce a technology-explicit dynamic material flow model for the global primary (smelters) and secondary (melting furnaces) aluminum production capacities. In business-as-usual scenarios, we project emissions from smelters and melting furnaces to rise from 710 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2020 to 920-1400 Mt CO2-eq./a in 2050. Rapid implementation of inert anodes in smelters can reduce emissions by 14% by 2050. However, a limitation of emissions compatible with a 2 °C scenario requires combined action: (1) an improvement of collection and recycling systems to absorb all the available postconsumer scrap, (2) a fast and wide deployment of low-carbon technologies, and (3) a rapid transition to low-carbon electricity sources. These measures need to be implemented even faster in scenarios with a stronger increase in aluminum demand. Lock-in effects are likely: building new capacity using conventional technologies will compromise climate mitigation efforts and would require premature retirement of industrial assets.

Labor Force Participation Rate Prediction of China: Scenario Simulation Based on Education and Retirement Strategies

This study uses detailed population statistics and analyzes labor participation rates in China from the perspectives of education and retirement. It presents different hypothetical scenarios and predicts future labor participation rates using queue factors. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, the overall labor participation rate (51.43%) is projected to significantly decrease by 2060 compared to 2020 (73.76%). The lock-in effect of education leads to a declining participation rate for the 15–24 age group, which persists until approximately the age of 50. Generally, women have higher labor participation rates than men prior to retirement. In the education-centered hypothetical scenario, the quantity impact of educational expansion is evident. Although the relative impact of additional education diminishes toward the end of working life (60–74) compared to the entire working life (15–74). The improvement in the labor market due to educational reform is sustainable across all scenarios. In the retirement-centered hypothetical scenario, reducing retirement rates across age groups increases labor force participation, but this improvement mainly focuses on those under the age of 70 and is not sustained. Thus, delaying retirement policies is only effective in the short term.

Establishing interoperability between EMF and MSDKVS: an M3-level-bridge to transform metamodels and models

Many powerful metamodeling platforms enabling model-driven software engineering (MDSE) exist, each with its strengths, weaknesses, functionalities, programming language(s), and developer community. Platform interoperability would enable users to exploit their mutual benefits. Such interoperability would allow the transformation of metamodels and models created in one platform into equivalent metamodels and models in other platforms. Language engineers could then freely choose the metamodeling platform without risking a lock-in effect. Two well-documented and publicly available metamodeling platforms are the eclipse modeling framework (EMF) and the modeling SDK for visual studio (MSDKVS). In this paper, we propose an M3-level-bridge (M3B) that establishes interoperability between EMF and MSDKVS on the abstract syntax level and on the graphical concrete syntax level. To establish such interoperability we (i) compare the two platforms, (ii) present a conceptual mapping between them, and (iii) implement a bidirectional transformation bridge including both the metamodel and model layer. We evaluate our approach by transforming a collection of publicly available metamodels and automatically generated or manually created models thereof. The transformation outcomes are then used to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate the transformation’s validity, executability, and expressiveness.

Nested Markets and the Transition of the Agro-Marketing System towards Sustainability

We are currently witnessing a global transition (albeit slow) towards new, more sustainable models of development and consumption. This transition activates and highlights a series of discrepancies between the various actors in agri-food marketing systems, including the institutions that govern regulatory and trade aspects. These discrepancies highlight that the global agri-marketing system does not provide adequate responses to the principles of sustainability. This is due to a mixture of opportunism, information asymmetries, and ‘lock-in effects’, which create serious market failures. This, in turn, brings structural holes, in which new forms of exchange are born. We identify these as nested markets: hybrid market forms that often use new information technologies and create a new form of proximity in which reciprocity and reputation play a central role. In this article, we argue that the market is not only the place where prices and quantities are assessed. Markets are complex social spaces, where more-or-less stable relationships are formed, based on values of reciprocity and reputation that contain opportunism. This article discusses the many well-documented cases of new markets. This article argues that these new markets are characterized by a strong specificity of the resources used (that include territory, sustainability, and solidarity).

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Carbon Emissions and Their Influencing Factors at the County Scale: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

Significant carbon emissions, a key contributor to global climate warming, pose risks to ecosystems and human living conditions. It is crucial to monitor the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level to reach the goals of carbon peak and neutrality. This study examines carbon emissions and economic and social problems data from 89 counties in Zhejiang Province. It employs analytical techniques such as LISA time path, spatio-temporal transition, and standard deviational ellipse to investigate the trends of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, it utilizes the GTWR model to evaluate the factors that influence these emissions on a county scale. The findings reveal the following: (1) The LISA time path analysis indicates a pronounced local spatial structure in the distribution of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2022, characterized by increasing stability, notable path dependency, and some degree of spatial integration, albeit with a diminishing trend in overall integration. (2) The LISA spatio-temporal transition analysis indicates significant path dependency or lock-in effects in the county-level spatial clustering of carbon emissions. (3) Over the period 2002–2022, the centroid of carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s counties mainly oscillated between 120°55′15″ E and 120°57′01″ E and between 29°55′52″ N and 29°59′11″ N, with a general northeastward shift forming a “V” pattern. This shift resulted in a stable “northeast–southwest” spatial distribution. (4) Factors such as population size, urbanization rate, and economic development level predominantly accelerate carbon emissions, whereas industrial structure tends to curb them. It is crucial to customize carbon mitigation plans to suit the circumstances of each county. This study provides insight into the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level in Zhejiang Province. It offers crucial guidance for developing targeted and practical strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

Open Source Software reference implementations for standards issued by different standards setting organisations: availability, perceptions and practices

Software reference implementations of ICT standards have an important role for verifying that a standard is implementable, supporting interoperability testing among other implementations, and providing feedback to the standard development process. Providing reference implementations and widely used implementations of a standard as Open Source Software promotes wide deployment in software systems, interoperability, longevity of systems and associated digital assets, and avoidance of different lock-in effects. In this paper results are reported on the availability of, and perceptions and practices concerning, reference implementations and widely deployed implementations provided as Open Source Software for standards issued by different standards setting organisations. Specifically, findings draw from observations and analyses related to software implementations for identified standards and policy statements, issued by ETSI, IEC, IEEE, IETF, ISO, ITU-T, OASIS, and W3C.

The evolution of regional triple helix food sector SME interventions: a longitudinal study, Wales, UK

ABSTRACT This paper explores the effectiveness of regional intervention strategies aimed at enhancing ‘low-tech’ SMEs’ sustainable competitive advantage and innovation activities, employing the food sector in Wales (UK) as a case study. It utilizes the triple helix model to analyse these interventions, emphasising collaboration between government, academia, and industry to stimulate knowledge-based economic development. The food sector represents an ideal subject for innovation-focused regional development policies because of its global importance, sustainability concerns, health impact and economic outcomes. A mixed-methods longitudinal case study approach was taken, evaluating a series of intervention programmes over an extended period (12 years in total), all funded by the European Union via the Welsh Government. Data sources included program reports, management committee reports, interviews, and case study testimonials. Frequent intervention activities included quality systems development, technical support, and skills training. They notably improved product and processing innovation for SMEs, key performance indicators revealing over 1,800 new products, safeguarding around 2,300 food sector jobs, and supporting 64 new business start-ups. Findings emphasized the value of consistent policies over an extended time period, albeit with the potential for lock-in effects. Future programme goals should be adapted for broader sustainable development outcomes – these are not uniquely Welsh challenges.

Can industrial structure optimization and industrial structure transition both lead to carbon lock-in mitigation? The case of China.

The optimization and transition of the industrial structure help improve the quality of the economy, moving it toward low-carbon development. By using the Instrumental Variable Generalized Method of Moments model and a city-level dataset covering the period 2006-2019, this paper explores the carbon lock-in mitigation effects of industrial structure optimization and industrial structure transition, respectively. The heterogeneity and the synthetic industrial structure adjustment effect are detected, and the potential impact mechanism is also explored. Some findings have been generated. (1) Both industrial structure optimization and industrial structure transition realize carbon lock-in eradication. (2) Industrial structure optimization and transition are more effective in inhibiting carbon lock-in in cities with a higher level of economic background. (3) By generating an interaction term of industrial structure optimization and transition and examining the impact of the interaction term on carbon lock-in, this paper detects that industrial structure optimization and transition have a synthetic impact on carbon lock-in, showing a "1 + 1 > 2" effect. (4) Industrial structure optimization and transition both affect carbon lock-in by improving technological innovation level, which is the impact mechanism. Some policy implications, such as sectoral diversification and promoting research and development, are put forward for better industrial structure development and carbon unlocking.

Carbon lock-in endgame: Can energy trilemma eradication contribute to decarbonization?

The carbon neutrality agenda requires that carbon lock-in enters an endgame. A well-developed energy system, which is secure, equitable, and sustainable is paramount to getting rid of carbon lock-in and realizing decarbonization. We carry out systematic research to empirically study the possible carbon lock-in reduction effect of energy trilemma based on the instrumental variable-generalized method of moment (IV-GMM) model. We also detect heterogeneous effects in terms of geographical locations and endowments of capital, as well as the impact mechanisms. Moreover, this paper highlights the mediating and threshold role of environmental regulation. We thus get the following conclusions. (1) The paper's primary findings underscore that the continuous increase of energy trilemma exacerbates carbon lock-in and hampers the process of decarbonization; (2) Energy trilemma has a higher stimulating effect on carbon lock-in in provinces that lie in the central region and that have a comparatively low level of physical, social, and human capital; (3) Energy trilemma can also indirectly aggravate carbon lock-in by inhibiting technology innovation and exacerbating carbon emissions intensity; (4) The interaction of environmental regulation and energy trilemma can alleviate the energy trilemma - carbon lock-in nexus, and environmental regulation also shows a significant threshold effect.

Regional decline and structural changes in Northeast China: an exploratory space–time approach

Literature on New Economic Geography (NEG) highlights the importance of spatial concentration and spillover effects in economic growth or decline. Northeast China, as an old industrial base, is experiencing a regional decline since its transition to the post-industrial stage. Therefore, what is the main sectoral composition in Northeast China and how does this influence regional decline? To what extent do spatial spillovers play a role before and during the regional decline of Northeast China? Based on these questions, we investigated the spatial connections between regional decline and structural changes in Northeast China over three development periods: Rust Belt (1995–2002), revival (2002–2015), and decline (2015–2019). The recent exploratory space–time data analysis was employed on prefecture-level income and its structural change components (sectoral output and employment ratio). We found that the possible reason for the regional decline in Northeast China is premature deindustrialisation. Spatial co-decline in the employment of industry and construction, the primary source of regional decline, facilitates most of the space–time patterns of the regional income. Agglomeration of the agricultural sector has shifted to the north, while industry and construction have gravitated towards the middle and south, with no clear spatial patterns in the service sector. Dependence on natural resources has a "lock-in effect" that inhibits the transition from industry to services, so industry and construction remain the most efficient in Northeast China. Strengthening spatial connections is essential for local governments to develop service sectors and overcome declining conditions.

Policies for young adults with reduced work capacity. Labour market impact in Sweden and Norway

The rising numbers of young people with disability pension concerns many advanced economies. We present results from a comparative analysis of the neighbouring countries Sweden and Norway on the impacts of differing policy mixes aimed at enhancing the employability of the work disabled. Using rich longitudinal data, we follow unemployed young adults (ages 25-29) with work-impairment up to four years after they became unemployed to investigate the effect of different types of labour market policies. Our results indicate that, despite differences in programme composition and strategies, there are surprisingly small country differences in treatment effect patterns and signs of estimated impacts. In line with previous studies, we find strong lock-in effects of both workplace-related programmes and training/educational programmes. After participation, workplace-related programmes about double the likelihood of entering regular employment or education. Participating in training courses also increases this likelihood, but effect sizes are smaller.

The Status Quo, Dilemma, and Transformation Path of the Carbon Neutrality-Related Policy of the ASEAN

After joining the globalization initiative, countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have experienced an exponential growth in carbon emissions. The high carbon lock-in of the energy consumption structure and lagged energy infrastructure construction have led to high carbon emissions, which has put great pressure on ASEAN countries to reduce their carbon emissions. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by the middle of this century, ASEAN countries have successively formulated strategic guidelines for energy transformation and green development, focusing on the structural transformation of energy development and utilization, a coal decommissioning plan, grid interconnection, the electrification of urban transportation patterns, energy conservation, consumption reduction, and international technological cooperation. ASEAN countries still face many challenges in achieving their carbon neutrality targets, including unstable policies, poor environmental awareness among residents, poor guarantee for energy transformation, disconnection between technology and capital, and difficulties in regional coordination. These are reflected in the obvious carbon lock-in effect and the strong dependence on carbon in traditional industries. ASEAN countries are seeking a balance of interests in the Sino–US infrastructure game. In this context, China, as an advocate of South–South cooperation, is committed to expanding the cooperation with ASEAN countries on carbon neutrality in the following aspects: the development and utilization of renewable energy resources, formulation of a progressive grid interconnection plan, establishment of the green financial system, and research and development of green technologies. The purpose is to help ASEAN countries achieve their goals of carbon neutrality.