Local Unemployment Rate Research Articles

The impact of unemployment and economic risk perceptions on attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change

This study uses public opinion data from 2006 to 2014 to examine the effect of unemployment and partisan identity on attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change. Results show that while Republican partisanship and conservative ideology are strongly associated with lower reported belief in anthropogenic climate change, these attitudes are also shaped by subjective perceptions of economic risk and increased local unemployment rates. I find that exposure to economic risk increases the likelihood of climate change denial among both Democrats and Republicans. These findings help explain trends in environmental public opinion over the past decade, in particular the increase in reported denial or skepticism about climate change after the 2008 economic recession.

Economic, Labor, and Regulatory Moderators of the Effect of Individual Placement and Support Among People With Severe Mental Illness: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

As Individual Placement and Support (IPS) has become the international standard for vocational rehabilitation of adults with serious mental illness, researchers must consider the relationship between IPS and local environments. This meta-analysis used mixed-effects meta-regressions to assess the impact of site-level moderators on the likelihood that IPS recipients, compared with recipients of alternative vocational services, achieved competitive employment. Potential moderators included change in gross domestic product (GDP), local unemployment and unionization rates, and indices describing employment protection regulations, level of disability benefits compensation, and efforts to integrate people with disabilities into the workforce. Regulatory moderators represent facilitators and barriers to employment that may reinforce or detract from the effectiveness of IPS. Across 30 sites drawn from 21 randomized controlled trials in 12 countries (33% in the United States), IPS recipients were 2.31 (95% CI 1.99-2.69) times more likely to find competitive employment than recipients of alternative vocational rehabilitation services. The significant competitive-employment rate advantage of IPS over control services increased in the presence of weaker employment protection legislation and integration efforts, and less generous disability benefits. Policy makers should recognize and account for the fact that labor and disability regulations can create an arrangement of incentives that reduces the relative efficacy of supported employment.

Retrospective voting in the Italian 2013 election: a sub-national perspective

The Italian 2013 election ended the period of bipolarism that characterized the so-called ‘Second Republic’, and paved the way for new parties such as the Five Star Movement. We investigate that election, which took place after the technocratic government led by Mario Monti, through the analytical lenses of the retrospective theory of economic voting applied at the provincial level. Local unemployment rates shape the electoral performances of those parties that were more supportive and sympathetic to the caretaker executive, thus confirming a distinction between incumbent and non-incumbent even in that critical and politically undecided election. We further contribute to the literature on retrospective voting by relaxing the locally untenable assumption of independence among the units. Making use of spatial regression models, we demonstrate the relevance of both the internal and contiguous economies, and their relative impact due to the different size of the provinces.

Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?

Increasing evidence shows that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the euro area, the relationship between price inflation and economic slack became stronger. Instead, there is no clear evidence of a strong(er) relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. In this paper, we estimate a Phillips curve with time-varying coefficients separately for Italy, Spain, Germany and France and we find that, with the exception of Germany, after the global financial crisis, the sensitivity of hourly wage changes to labour market slack increased. Second, by the use of administrative microdata, available only for Italy, we relate daily wage changes to the local unemployment rate. The results confirm the steepening of the Phillips curve after 2008, also when controlling for composition effects.

Cyclical unemployment and infant health

This study provides evidence on the effect of cyclical unemployment on infant health. We match individual-level data from a detailed survey of mothers and their children in Memphis, TN, with 5-year average census-tract unemployment rates from the American Community Survey. Our findings indicate that a one percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate is associated with a statistically significant increase in the probability of having a low birthweight baby (a baby weighing less than 2500 grams). We also find evidence of a statistically significant decrease in gestational age. These effects are concentrated among infants born to mothers without a college education and into households earning less than $25,000 a year.

Social selection in higher education. Enrolment, dropout and timely degree attainment in Italy

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive picture of social selectivity in higher education in Italy by focusing on enrolment and two alternative indicators of success: retention and timely completion. The existing literature has shown that young individuals of disadvantaged backgrounds have lower enrolment probabilities and higher chances of withdrawal. This paper analyses the size and features of this cumulative disadvantage, shaping the chances of high-school leavers of eventually attaining the university degree. We analyse whether social background inequalities are stronger at enrolment or at later outcomes, and how these inequalities vary with previous schooling experience. We confirm previous evidence that disadvantaged groups with respect to enrolment are also disadvantaged on persistence, add new findings on timely completion and show that cumulative inequalities are very strong. Inequalities are strongest among students holding technical and vocational high-school qualifications and weakest among well-performing students from lyceums. In addition, we examine the role of labour market conditions and whether they explain geographical differences. Enrolment, retention and timely completion probabilities appear negatively related to local youth unemployment rates, suggesting that with poor labour market prospects, individuals lose motivation and reduce their engagement in education.

Spatial and temporal analysis of crude oil theft in the Niger delta

This research sought to investigate patterns and correlates of the under-researched crime of crude oil theft (COT) in the context of the Niger Delta. The aim was to examine the feasibility of opportunity-, deprivation- and market-value-based explanations for COT patterns. A total of 1039 incidents of COT recorded by the Nigerian Oil Producers’ Trade Section during 2012–2014 were analysed. The results indicate that even when controlling for clustering of the oil pipeline infrastructure, spatial clustering of COT was statistically significant indicating manipulation of vulnerable situational contexts. No significant correlation was found between COT and the local unemployment or poverty rate. Finally, there was a moderate, significant positive temporal association between the volume of crude oil stolen and the international market price. The findings provide evidence that COTs are likely perpetrated by rationally motivated offenders and suggest that situational crime-prevention and market-reduction approaches show promise in proactively curtailing criminal opportunities.

If Leaving is Not an Option: The Role of Unemployment Rates for Organizational Deviance

Labor market conditions are likely to influence whether employees’ turnover intentions translate into actual leaving. Thus, the question arises how employees with turnover intentions but limited options to leave, behave in the workplace. Surprisingly little research has focused on behavioral outcomes of turnover intentions other than actual turnover. In line with previous research we argue that turnover intentions are positively related to organizational deviance. In order to further knowledge on how contextual factors influence this relationship we combine strain literature and power-dependence theory and develop and test competing hypotheses on how local unemployment rate may moderate the relationship between turnover intentions and organizational deviance. Using data from employees (n = 1,220) from different cantons in Switzerland (k = 26) results of multi-level analysis show that that the relationship between turnover intention and workplace deviance is stronger in the environment of higher unemployment rates.

DIFFERENTIAL RESPONSES IN FIRST BIRTH BEHAVIOUR TO ECONOMIC RECESSION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.

Economic conditions have dramatic influences on fertility. This paper evaluates the effect of the 2008 'Great Recession' in the UK on first birth rate, which is the fertility behaviour most susceptible to external economic conditions. The key aim of the study was to assess the effect of the recession on fertility by individual-level characteristics, enabling variation in responses to economic hardship to be observed. Data were from the nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UK-HLS). Cumulative transition models were used to model the probability of first birth for women between the ages of 17 and 30 in three UK birth cohorts. The effect of the recession was captured using direct measures (local unemployment rates and individual unemployment status) and a pre-/post-comparison, capturing indirect effects. In general, higher birth rates were observed among more disadvantaged women compared with advantaged groups. The effect of the recession was disaggregated by social strata; the overall effect was counter-cyclical although at a slower rate among disadvantaged women.

Do Changing Labor Market Conditions Affect the Length of Stay for Chronic Respiratory Failure Hospitalizations?

The availability of home care nurses is widely seen as a cause for delayed discharge from inpatient care. However, there is a paucity of data to support or refute this hypothesis. If availability is driven by labor market conditions, the relative availability should vary over time with changing labor market conditions. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the length of stay for pediatric patients bound for home care was correlated with the local unemployment rate. We found that a 1-percentage-point (or marginal) increase in the unemployment rate was associated with a 2.3-day decrease in the length of stay for chronic respiratory failure hospitalizations. This suggests that labor market conditions result in delayed discharge for chronic respiratory failure patients.

Regional training supply and employees’ training participation

Using data from the National Educational Panel Study of 2009/2010, this paper investigates the correlation between regional training supply and employees’ training participation. Controlling for other regional factors such as the local unemployment rate, the educational level, the population density and the regional industry composition, the results indicate that training participation is significantly higher in regions with many firms in the training supply market. The predictive power of the other regional factors is rather minor.

Do Syrian refugees a real impact on local unemployment in Turkey?

Syrian civil war has caused a forced massive immigration into neighbour countries. Almost six billion people has spreaded out neighbour countries as being refugees. Since the start of the war in March 2011, three billion syrian people’s have passed the borders as being refugees to Turkey. Turkey has the biggest share on the World of this massive emigration. Syrian refugees firstly settled in camps near the borders and after filling the camps they spread out across the country. Most of them have started to working informally at seconder sector; therefore they have been invisible competitors for native employees. In this study, the effects of Syrian refugees as employees on local unemployment were discussed. Outcomes show us Syrian refugees have a real impact on native unemployment, especially in the informal sectors. In cities where Syrian refugees have settled, local unemployment rates have inclined; because of this, many native employees have lost their jobs.

Factors contributing to employment patterns after liver transplantation.

Many liver transplant recipients return to work, but their patterns of employment are unclear. We examine patterns of employment 5years after liver transplantation. First-time liver transplant recipients ages 18-60years transplanted from 2002 to 2009 and surviving at least 5years were identified in the United Network for Organ Sharing registry. Recipients' post-transplant employment status was classified as follows: (i) never employed; (ii) returned to work within 2years and remained employed (continuous employment); (iii) returned to work within 2years, but was subsequently unemployed (intermittent employment); or (iv) returned to work ≥3years post-transplant (delayed employment). Of 28306 liver recipients identified during the study period, 12998 survived at least 5years and contributed at least 1 follow-up of employment status. A minority of patients (4654; 36%) were never employed, while 3780 (29%) were continuously employed, 3027 (23%) were intermittently employed, and 1537 (12%) had delayed employment. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, predictors of intermittent and delayed employment included lower socioeconomic status, higher local unemployment rates, and post-transplant comorbidities or complications. Never, intermittent, and delayed employment are common after liver transplantation. Socioeconomic and labor market characteristics may add to clinical factors that limit liver transplant recipients' continuous employment.

The Impact of Cyclical Unemployment on Maternal and Infant Health: Evidence from the Candle Study

This study provides evidence on the effect of cyclical unemployment on postnatal maternal and infant health. We match individual-level data from the Conditions Affecting Neurocognitive Development and Learning in Early Childhood Study, which follows a sample of mothers and their children in Memphis, TN, with 5-year average census-tract unemployment rates from the American Community Survey. Our findings indicate that a 10 percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate is associated with an average decrease in birthweight of 1.2 ounces, and that the impact is significantly larger for children born into households with an annual income below $25,000.

The impact of growth and innovation clusters on unemployment in US metro regions

AbstractMuch has been written by various scholars and practitioners over the years about the benefits of industrial clustering. The benefits of such clustering or local agglomeration economies supposedly include greater regional exports, greater employment growth, greater payroll growth, and greater new business establishment creation, among other impacts. However, the work for this article has not uncovered much if any literature on how agglomeration affects United States regional unemployment rates. Additionally, most growing industrial and innovation clusters over the last two decades or so require highly educated and skilled workers. Since most of the unemployed at any given time tend to be less educated and less skilled than most workers on average, any local and state economic development policies that focus on clustering must be careful in targeting lower unemployment rates as a policy goal or outcome. From a theoretical point of view, if greater clustering leads to greater employment growth and employment levels then greater clustering in a US metro area should yield lower unemployment rates than those which have lesser degrees of industry clustering on average. On the other hand, greater clustering and greater industry concentration in either declining industries or in those industries not in decline but at the same time not immune to bad cyclical downturns could yield greater unemployment rates and levels in metro areas which have these types of industries. Therefore, before pursing any policies which promote greater industry clustering, it would be useful for policy‐makers to know whether greater industry clustering or greater industry diversity makes a difference when it comes to unemployment rates for metro areas, which are usually defined as local job markets for most workers. This paper finds that, in general, greater clustering for ‘growth and innovation’ industries leads to lower unemployment rates in US metro areas, on average, after controlling for other factors which may impact local unemployment rates.

Local Labour Markets and Unemployment Duration

This paper explores the relationship between local unemployment rates and the length of time people who have lost their job spend unemployed, using a competing risks model. High local unemployment is found to reduce the probability of re‐employment for someone who was employed prior to a period of unemployment. However, individual factors such as age, education and experience are more important predictors of re‐employment. This suggests there could be benefits from a policy response that focuses more on the individuals, and building skills that are resilient to structural change, than on job creation in local areas.

Unemployment and Immigrant Receptivity Climate in Established and Newly Emerging Destination Areas

This study examines whether the receptivity climate toward immigrants varies across traditional, new, and emerging Hispanic immigrant destinations in the U.S. and whether that climate is related to local unemployment rates and to the job-skill level of immigrants who settle in these places. We utilize unique, newly collected data to measure local labor market area immigrant receptivity climate based on content analysis of a random sample of all articles addressing immigrants/immigration which were published by local area newspapers from 1995 to 2010. The descriptive data show considerable diversity in local and regional immigrant receptivity patterns across the 380 U.S. labor market areas. Using annual labor market-specific unemployment rates, decadal measures of the educational attainment of immigrants and natives in the labor market area, and an annual summary measure of the immigrant receptivity climate, controlling for theoretically relevant labor market contextual characteristics, results from our regression models show that the immigrant receptivity climate is more negative where unemployment rates are higher. However, this relationship is evident only for new and non-destination areas compared with established immigrant destinations when control variables are considered. While a higher skill level of immigrants (a labor competition argument) is related to less negativity toward them, it does not explain the relationship between unemployment and immigrant receptivity climate. Overall, a high skill level of natives is the better explanation for a more positive immigrant receptivity climate.

Has the Wage Phillips Curve Changed in the Euro Area?

Increasing evidence shows that after a flattening occurred in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis, the relationship between price inflation and economic slack became stronger in the euro area. By contrast, there is no clear evidence of a strong(er) relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. In this paper we estimate a standard Phillips curve with time-varying coefficients separately for Italy, Spain, Germany and France. We find that, with the exception of Germany, after the global financial crisis the sensitivity of hourly wage changes to labour market slack increased. Second, using administrative microdata available only for Italy, we relate daily wage changes to the local unemployment rate. The results confirm the steepening of the Phillips curve after 2008, also when controlling for composition effects.

The Difficult School-to-Work Transition of High School Dropouts: Evidence from a Field Experiment

This paper investigates the effects of the labor market experience of high school dropouts four years after leaving school by sending fictitious resumes to real job postings in France. Compared to those who have stayed unemployed since leaving school, the callback rate is not raised for those with employment experience, whether it is subsidized or non-subsidized, in the market or non-market sector, if there is no training accompanied by skill certification. In particular, we find no stigma effect associated with subsidized or non-market sector work experience. Moreover, training accompanied by skill certification improves youth prospects only when the local unemployment rate is sufficiently low, which occurs in one fifth of the commuting zones only.

How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?

Compared with prime-age workers, older workers face an easier path out of the labor force if they lose their jobs during a recession. However, premature job exits or earnings losses in the years leading up to retirement may be particularly devastating to retirement savings. The authors analyze the impact of recent business cycles on retirement using multifaceted job transitions of older workers. They focus on local labor markets because older workers are particularly unlikely to move for work. Surprisingly, the biggest effect of a higher local unemployment rate on older workers is to raise the propensity to stay in one?s current job. Older workers have fewer voluntary transitions to new jobs when the unemployment rate rises, but they especially have fewer voluntary transitions out of the labor force. Thus, the direct effect of job loss in inducing earlier retirement during recessions is outweighed by retirement delays among those with jobs.