Local Projects Research Articles

Imperfect information and tourist's response to natural disasters

AbstractThis study investigates the international behaviour of individuals with imperfect information. We used both local and international tourist data pertaining to Hakone in Japan to focus on two natural disasters: the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and volcanic activity on Mount Hakone. Hotel guests' responses to these shocks were estimated using smooth local projections. The responses of less‐informed foreign guests differed from those of well‐informed domestic guests. Because of imperfect information, such as sticky information, rational inattention and selected information through news media, the GEJE and its aftermath decreased the number of foreign guests at a rate greater and more persistent than that of domestic guests. Conversely, changes in volcanic alert levels slightly affect foreign guests because of the absence of information (or rational inattention); however, they have negative and persistent effects on domestic guests.

International transmission of China’s monetary policy

ABSTRACT This paper quantifies the spillover effects and explores the transmission channels in a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Using a panel local projection model to identify Chinese monetary policy shock by the change in the 7-day repo rate in the interest rate swap market, we find that China’s monetary tightening causes a significant drop in global output, with a larger decline in emerging economies than in advanced economies. Moreover, spillovers of Chinese monetary policy mainly depend on the trade channel, while the exchange rate channel and the financial channel are insignificant. To further explain empirical findings, we develop a basic two-country model and unveil the inherent logic.

Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach

We develop flexible local projections to quantify the relative contributions of expected discount rates and cash flows to the variation of dividend yields. Local projections enable the incorporation of large information sets, the use of monthly data along with annual data, and the consideration of time variation in the dividend yield decomposition. By expanding the set of state variables and allowing for time-varying parameters, our results show that the variation of expected discount rates remains the primary contributor to market volatility, whereas the contribution of expected cash flows is considerably smaller.

Adopting Data to Care to Identify and Address Gaps in Services for Children and Adolescents Living With HIV in Mozambique.

The Data to Care (D2C) strategy uses multiple sources of complementary data on HIV clients and related services to identify individuals with gaps in HIV treatment. Although D2C has been widely used in the United States, there is no evidence on its use in other settings, such as countries most affected by the epidemic. The D2C strategy was implemented within the context of a project that provided community-based support to children and adolescents living with HIV (C/ALHIV) in Mozambique. A data tracking tool and a standard operating procedure manual for local partner community organizations and health care facilities were developed to support the effort. Project staff met with local project implementing partners to discuss and coordinate the intervention in pilot health facilities. The project initiated a pilot D2C intervention in 2019, working with 14 health facilities across 5 additional districts within 1 province. COVida project data were compared with clinical data from facilities serving C/ALHIV. The D2C intervention identified gaps in HIV treatment for a substantial number of C/ALHIV, and targeted support services were provided to address those gaps. Viral load (VL) monitoring was added in March 2020. Before the intervention, 71% of C/ALHIV reported to be on HIV treatment by their caregivers were documented as on treatment in health facilities. Support interventions targeted those not on treatment, and this proportion increased to 96% within 1 year of implementation. Additionally, 12 months later, the proportion of C/ALHIV with a documented VL test increased from 52% to 72%. Introducing the D2C pilot intervention was associated with substantial improvements in HIV treatment for C/ALHIV, including increased linkage to and continuity in treatment and increased VL testing. D2C may be a useful approach to improve health outcomes for C/ALHIV in settings outside of the United States.

Participation 3.0 in the implementation of the energy transition-Components and effectiveness of an interactive dialogue tool (Vision:En 2040).

The allocation of renewable energy plants, especially wind turbines, is stagnating in Germany. Although the citizens approve of the energy transition, they resist concrete local projects. In recent years, research has shown that interactive map applications support participatory planning through motivation, social interaction, and knowledge transfer. We aim to reduce biases against renewable energy (RE) and support informed decision making while accepting local responsibility. We hypothesized that finding a new gamified participation format, based on behavioral mechanisms, would strengthen the empowerment of people. To this end, we designed a dialogue tool and participation format, 'Vision:En 2040', which combines: (i) a precise target electricity yield, (ii) an interactive map showing results of people's actions, information about environmental impacts, and (iii) game rules which foster cooperation. In facilitated workshops, participants simulate the allocation of wind and photovoltaic power plants in their municipality to achieve a target electricity yield. The developed tool is based on methods of environmental planning and geoinformatics. 'Vision:En 2040' was systematically tested with a technical test and a pre-test. In addition, its impact on participants was assessed through surveys and qualitative content analysis. The evaluation results show that the tool can influence the acceptance of the energy transition in terms of attitude. Through 'Vision:En 2040', participants became aware of the community's responsibility in the energy transition and expanded their knowledge. In addition, decision makers used the workshop results to plan RE sites. Our results indicate that 'Vision:En 2040' is helpful for informal citizen participation in accelerating the energy transition.

Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs

We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various identification schemes and several variants of LP and VAR estimators, employing bias correction, shrinkage, or model averaging. A clear bias–variance trade-off emerges: LP estimators have lower bias than VAR estimators, but they also have substantially higher variance at intermediate and long horizons. Bias-corrected LP is the preferred method if and only if the researcher overwhelmingly prioritizes bias. For researchers who also care about precision, VAR methods are the most attractive—Bayesian VARs at short and long horizons, and least-squares VARs at intermediate and long horizons.

Local projections in unstable environments

This paper develops a local projection estimator for estimating impulse responses in the presence of time variation. Importantly, we allow local instabilities in both slope coefficients and variances. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate that the method performs well in practice. Using our proposed estimator, we shed new light on the effects of fiscal policy shocks and the size of government spending multipliers. Our analysis uncovers the existence of instabilities that were unaccounted for in previous studies, and links time variation in the multipliers to the size of government debt.

Does ENSO Impact Equity Returns? Evidence via Country and Panel Regression

This study employs a panel local projections (LP) model to analyze the influence of El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN) Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on real equity returns based on twenty economies, collectively accounting for 80.2% of global output. We demonstrate that an ENSO shock has a delayed and oscillatory effect on equity returns, where the most significant impact is positive (negative) during an EN (LN) phase. We further analyze the climate state by each of the twenty economies. The literature shows that the effect of an ENSO shock on economic growth can vary across different economies. A main finding is that we show a near uniform result similar to the panel LP model, which we posit is driven in part by strong interconnections of financial markets on a global scale. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors. Highlights We estimate a panel and economy-specific climate ENSO switching via LP model. Twenty economies representing 80.2% of global output are analyzed. ENSO shock has a delayed and oscillatory effect on equity returns. Most significant impact of an ENSO shock on equity returns is positive (negative) during an EN (LN) phase.

From regional climate models to usable information

Today, a major challenge for climate science is to overcome what is called the “usability gap” between the projections derived fromclimate models and the needs of the end-users. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected to provide usable information concerning a variety of impacts and for a wide range of end-users. It is often assumed that the development of more accurate, more complex RCMs with higher spatial resolution should bring process understanding and better local projections, thus overcoming the usability gap. In this paper, I rather assume that the credibility of climate information should be pursued together with two other criteria of usability, which are salience and legitimacy. Based on the Swiss climate change scenarios, I study the attempts at meeting the needs of end-users and outline the trade-off modellers and users have to face with respect to the cascade of uncertainty. A conclusion of this paper is that the trade-off between salience and credibility sets the conditions under which RCMs can be deemed adequate for the purposes of addressing the needs of end-users and gearing the communication of the projections toward direct use and action.

From Integration Policies to Belonging: Local Integration Workers’ Boundary Construction Concerning Immigrants in Rural Areas

The concept of integration implies an imbalance between people, where immigrants are those who are obligated to integrate into the society of a new country. Thus, I suggest that alongside of integration, the focus should be the process of belonging and to how different local actors participate in the belonging process. In this study, I examine how people who try to promote immigrants’ integration, namely local migration coordinators, project employees and volunteers, create immigrants’ belonging in rural Finland. The data consist of fourteen semi-structured interviews. My research questions are (1) What symbolic boundaries do local integration workers construct when they speak about immigrants and their integration? and (2) What kind of belonging do they (re)produce for immigrants through these boundaries? I argue that local integration workers establish a notion of belonging that follows the official, national integration policy on language, employment, active membership, and individual immigrants’ adaptation. However, they simultaneously expand the boundaries of belonging by highlighting the responsibility of the local community in the process, and by emphasising immigrants’ personal desires, individuality and experiences of a sense of being at home.

Penguatan Profil Pelajar Pancasila dan Profil Pelajar Rahmatan lil Aalamin melalui Pembelajaran Projek Kearifan Lokal di Madrasah Ibtidaiyah

This study aims to describe the implementation of learning projects with the theme of local wisdom in strengthening the profile of Pancasila students and the profile of Rahmatan lil Aalamin students. The location of the research was carried out in Madrasah Ibtidaiyah Taufiqiyah Semarang, which has implemented the Merdeka curriculum independently. This qualitative research uses instruments in the form of interviews, documentation, and observation. Data analysis used is data reduction, data presentation, and data verification. The results showed that learning local wisdom theme projects had been carried out optimally in Madrasah Ibtidaiyah Taufiqiyah Semarang. The dimensions of the Pancasila student profile that can be realized are faith, fear of God Almighty, noble morals, and working together. The student profile of Rahmatan lil Aalamin that can be realized is a civilization with shaleh social sub-values and tolerance values with collaborative sub-values. The driving factor for the implementation of local wisdom-themed projects is the understanding of teachers and project teams also parental support. The inhibiting factors are the completeness of supporting facilities, infrastructure, and limited land.

Impacts of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation and Output in New Zealand*

We identify monetary policy shocks in New Zealand as 1‐day changes in the whole yield curve around monetary policy announcements. The impacts of these shocks on inflation and output are estimated using functional local projections. We find that the effects of monetary policy shocks are standard in the short run but might be different in the long run. Monetary policy shocks in a small open economy have similar effects as in a large economy, except that unconventional monetary policy announcements have limited impact on long‐term interest rates. Accounting for forward guidance, used in New Zealand since 1997, is important.

Public expenditure multipliers and informality

This paper investigates the role of informality in affecting the magnitude of the public expenditure multiplier in a panel of 142 countries, using the local projections method. We find a strong negative relationship between the degree of informality and the size of the multiplier. This result holds irrespective of the level of economic development and institutional quality and is robust to additional country characteristics such as trade and financial openness and exchange rate regime. In a two-sector New-Keynesian model, we rationalize this result by showing that fiscal shocks raise the relative price of official goods, thereby shifting demand towards the informal sector. This reallocation effect increases with the level of informality, because a larger informal sector is associated with a stronger appreciation of relative prices in response to fiscal shocks, and thus reduces the multiplier.

A Review of Renewable Energy Communities: Concepts, Scope, Progress, Challenges, and Recommendations

In recent times, there has been a significant shift from centralized energy systems to decentralized ones. These systems aim to satisfy local energy needs using renewable resources within the community. This approach leads to decreased complexity and costs, improved efficiency, and enhanced local resilience and supports energy independence, thereby advancing the transition toward zero carbon emissions. Community energy plays a pivotal role globally, particularly in European countries, driven by citizen engagement in generating power from renewable sources. The European Union, known for its focus on social innovation and citizen participation, recognizes the essential role of energy communities in its latest energy strategy. The concept for creating local energy communities or community-based energy projects has gained worldwide attention, demonstrating the economic, environmental, and efficiency benefits for using renewable energy sources. However, there is a noticeable gap in research covering all the updated aspects of renewable energy communities. This article provides an in-depth review of energy communities, especially renewable energy communities, exploring their concepts, scope, benefits, and key activities. It also sheds light on their progress by presenting results and analyses. Some countries have shown significant advancement, others are in the initial stages, and a few have partially adopted REC implementation according to the Renewable Energy Directive II. Additionally, it discusses the main challenges and potential recommendations to enhance the growth of renewable energy communities. This work is a valuable resource, emphasizing the importance of citizen involvement and offering insights into various aspects of community energy for sustainable energy transition. It also provides practical insights and valuable information for policymakers, researchers, industry professionals, and community members who are keen on promoting sustainable, community-driven energy systems.

A low- dose CT reconstruction algorithm across different scanners based on federated feature learning

To propose a low-dose CT reconstruction algorithm across different scanners based on federated feature learning (FedCT) to improve the generalization of deep learning models for multiple CT scanners and protect data privacy. In the proposed FedCT framework, each client is assigned an inverse Radon transform-based reconstruction model to serve as a local network model that participates in federated learning. A projection- domain specific learning strategy is adopted to preserve the geometry specificity in the local projection domain. Federated feature learning is introduced in the model, which utilizes conditional parameters to mark the local data and feed the conditional parameters into the network for encoding to enhance the generalization of the model in the image domain. In the cross-client, multi-scanner, and multi-protocol low-dose CT reconstruction experiments, FedCT achieved the highest PSNR (+2.8048, +2.7301, and +2.7263 compared to the second best federated learning method), the highest SSIM (+0.0009, +0.0165, and +0.0131 in the same comparison), and the lowest RMSE (- 0.6687, - 1.5956, and - 0.9962). In the ablation experiment, compared with the general federated learning strategy, the model with projection-specific learning strategy showed an average improvement by 1.18 on Q1 of the PSNR and an average decrease by 1.36 on Q3 of the RMSE on the test set. The introduction of federated feature learning in FedCT further improved the Q1 of the PSNR on the test set by 3.56 and reduced the Q3 of the RMSE by 1.80. FedCT provides an effective solution for collaborative construction of CT reconstruction models, which can enhance model generalization and further improve the reconstruction performance on global data while protecting data privacy.

Culture-based Innovation: A Localized Approach for Designing

Egypt’s craft industry encompasses many dependent businesses, while crafts are slowly dissipating in the flourishing digital age, designers are emerging and becoming more substantial. Handicrafts are actually in their majority environmentally friendly, offer a quick and short monetary cycle, and most of all are a reflection of the local culture and identity. Globally, cultural inspired designs can easily be trendy and fashionable. This paper argues that designers play a major role in solving this matter. Culture integration into the new designs is rather challenging as there is no solid theoretical framework linking design and culture. Designers have the ability to address how core components of culture can be embedded in innovative functional objects. The paper analyses the role of design from the outcome of local startup project and based on a design intervention conducted in collaboration with the International Labor Office (ILO) in Egypt.

Pass‐through to export prices: Evidence from Australia†

AbstractAustralia is a leading exporter of primary and agricultural commodities like iron ore, coal, wool and beef. Industry stakeholders point out that exchange rate fluctuations remain a key determinant of export revenue. This article investigates the exchange rate pass‐through to export prices using the recently proposed impulse responses by the local projections technique. Employing export prices in all destination markets and trade‐weighted exchange rates, there is substantial evidence that 17 SITC industry and sub‐industry level prices experience moderate to high exchange rate pass‐through to export prices. These industry categories include sectors like minerals and natural resources products, which are homogenous in nature, and Australia enjoys a comparative advantage in the export of such goods. However, this competitive edge does not necessarily lead to higher export prices, as currency invoicing plays an important role in determining the extent of the pass‐through effect. Our findings have important policy implications, especially regarding the invoicing currency strategy for exporters selling homogenous items.

A LIVING LAB APPROACH FOR CONCURRENT 3D DOCUMENTATION OF AN ARCHITECTURAL RENOVATION PROJECT – A SHOWCASE OF GUNSAN CIVIC CULTURAL CENTER

Abstract. This paper explores the integration of 3D documentation within a living lab framework for the renovation of the Gunsan Civic Cultural Center. The study emphasizes the importance of architectural renovation in contemporary sustainability and social resilience, highlighting the unique challenges of adapting existing structures. Our approach combines advanced 3D scanning techniques, such as drone filming, photogrammetry, LiDAR scanning, and hybrid modeling, with the living lab methodology, enabling real-world experimentation and stakeholder engagement. Our showcase on the Gunsan Civic Cultural Center illustrates the practical application of these techniques in material reuse and cultural performance planning, emphasizing community participation and collaborative decision-making. The living lab approach, central to our methodology, fosters dynamic interaction among architects, builders, community members, and local authorities, enhancing communication and project outcomes. This study contributes to the field by showcasing how concurrent 3D documentation in a living lab setting can revitalize heritage sites, ensuring their sustainable future while actively involving the community. The lessons and discussions drawn from this project highlight the potential of this approach in broader architectural and urban development contexts.

The Impact of LEADER Funding in Romania

Established in 1991 as a European initiative to enhance innovation in rural areas, the LEADER programme became an important tool for the spread of sustainable local development actions in almost all regions of the EU. In Romania, although the programme has generated the implementation of many successful local projects since 2007, quantitative evaluations of its socio-economic impact are extremely limited. The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether LEADER funding has had any effect on the eligible territory of Romania, using multiple linear regression analysis with the evolution of demographic and socio-economic indicators for the 2017–2023 period. The results show that, over a certain amount of euros/capita absorbed from LEADER at the administrative level (UAT), the positive dynamics of the statistical indicators is confirmed. This analysis represents quantitative proof of the LEADER programme’s added value, maintaining or increasing its European role in the future as a sustainable policy directed towards communities.

Structural reforms and income distribution: new evidence for OECD countries

Abstract This article examines the impact of labour market and product market reforms on income inequality for 25 OECD countries between 1970 and 2020, using the local projections approach and an updated narrative-based dataset of the reform indicators. Our results suggest that both types of (endogenized) market-oriented reforms increase income inequality, but the effects are small. Consistent with this finding is that counter-reforms lead to less income inequality. Our results also indicate that the inequality-increasing effect of market-oriented reforms is mostly a result of more income going to the top of the income distribution.