Local Inventory Research Articles

An urban emissions inventory for South America and its application in numerical modeling of atmospheric chemical composition at local and regional scales

This work describes the development of an urban vehicle emissions inventory for South America, based on the analysis and aggregation of available inventories for major cities, with emphasis on its application in regional atmospheric chemistry modeling. Due to the limited number of available local inventories, urban emissions were extrapolated based on the correlation between city vehicle density and mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Emissions were geographically distributed using a methodology that delimits urban areas using high spatial resolution remote sensing products. This numerical algorithm enabled a more precise representation of urban centers. The derived regional inventory was evaluated by analyzing the performance of a chemical weather forecast model in relation to observations of CO, NOx and O3 in two different urban areas, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. The gas mixing ratios simulated using the proposed regional inventory show good agreement with observations, consistently representing their hourly and daily variability. These results show that the integration of municipal inventories in a regional emissions map and their precise distribution in fine scale resolutions are important tools in regional atmospheric chemistry modeling.

A Comparative Analysis of Global City Policies in Climate Change Mitigation: London, New York, Milan, Mexico City and Bangkok

Global cities have emerged as major players on climate change issues. The paper considers five case studies (London, New York, Milan, Mexico City, Bangkok), with the aim of identifying main emission drivers at urban level and verify the coherence of urban mitigation strategies with local emission contexts. At this purpose, local emission inventories and mitigation plans of the five cities are compared through a set of city indicators. In all cases GHG emissions derive primarily from local energy uses. Transportation and energy uses in buildings are the most emitting sectors in all cities, with different weights in analyzed cases depending on specific conditions. City mitigation strategies and measures, though characterized by different time horizons, are coherent with local emission contexts. The need of standardized indicators and methodologies constitutes an area of future development and investigation.

Emission inventory: An urban public policy instrument and benchmark

Global concern with climate change has led to the development of a variety of solutions to monitor and reduce emissions on both local and global scales. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), both developed and emerging countries have assumed responsibility for developing and updating national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropic sources. This creates opportunities and incentives for cities to carry out their own local inventories and, thereby, develop air quality management plans including both essential key players and stakeholders at the local level. The aim of this paper is to discuss the role of local inventories as an urban public policy instrument and how this type of local instrument may bring advantages countrywide in enhancing the global position of a country. Local inventories have been carried out in many cities of the world and the main advantage of this is that it allows an overview of emissions produced by different municipal activities, thereby, helps decision makers in the elaboration of efficient air quality management plans. In that way, measures aimed at the reduction of fossil fuel consumption to lower local atmospheric pollution levels can also, in some ways, reduce GHG emissions.

From NAT/PI to NAS/PO: preparing for nucleic acid surveillance and product optimization

The transfusion‐transmitted infection (TTI) risk of pathogens for which nucleic acid testing (NAT) has been implemented is now insubstantial compared to other hazards of transfusion. Minimizing the TTI risk of non‐tested pathogens is a goal of pathogen inactivation (PI); in particular, the interdiction of emerging pathogens is a major selling point. Incidental to PI is the possibility of eliminating certain patient‐oriented procedures, e.g. selectively screening for cytomegalovirus (CMV) or irradiating to prevent transfusion‐associated graft‐versus‐host disease (TA‐GVHD). Do NAT and PI introduce new hazards? Perhaps. The product‐oriented elements of ‘SQuIPP’– Safety, Quality, Identity, Purity and Potency – are interdependent in positive and negative ways, and every intervention, including NAT and PI, requires time and money. Time has a special impact on the quality and availability of labile products such as granulocytes and platelets. Money spent on one intervention is unavailable for any other, and is not necessarily allocated to yield the best overall cost per quality adjusted life year (cost/QALY) or similar measure. Thus, current debate often focuses on NAT vs. PI. The ‘right’ answer likely depends on circumstances; a recent Chikungunya epidemic in La Réunion provoked rapid deployment of PI to ensure a sufficient, local platelet inventory, but the quality of PI‐treated products is a matter of ongoing investigation. For the future, we should dare to imagine, and dare to insist on, better performance for lower cost in all safety interventions. Information technology (IT) and automation have probably shown the greatest cost/performance improvements in recent years, especially as recording and processing approach the molecular level. A rational next step is to acknowledge that DNA and RNA are themselves data storage media, which await better techniques for reading (and editing). The issue will not be how little we can test, but how well we can handle the vast data available in every donor sample. In a world of nucleic acid surveillance (NAS), ethics and privacy will be at the forefront of donor‐oriented considerations. As for products manufactured from donated blood, today’s photochemistry may be the beginning of a new wave. Now, we disable nucleic acid replication. In the future, we might regulate apoptosis or modify antigens. Product optimization (PO), starting with rational donor selection criteria, will proceed with manufacturing steps best suited to a particular patient’s circumstances, e.g. the platelets given for an acute haemorrhage may very well differ from those given solely for prophylaxis. What is least likely to harm should be replaced by what is most likely to help.

A geostatistical approach to optimize sampling designs for local forest inventories

In forest management, it is of interest to obtain detailed inventories such that the local prediction errors on forest attributes are less than a prespecified threshold, while keeping the number of ground samples as low as possible. Given an initial sampling design, we propose an algorithm to determine the additional sample locations. The algorithm relies on two tools: geostatistical simulation, which allows measuring the uncertainty in the values of the attribute of interest, and simulated annealing, which allows finding an infill design that minimizes a given objective function. The proposed approach is applied to a data set from a Prosopis spp. plantation located in the Atacama Desert, in which the measured attribute is the rate of tree survival.

Human and non‐human determinants of forest composition in southern Spain: evidence of shifts towards cork oak dominance as a result of management over the past century

AbstractAims Both human and non‐human determinants have shaped Mediterranean forest structure over the last few millennia. The effects of recent human activities on forest composition, however, remain poorly understood. We quantified changes in forest composition during the past century in the mixed forests of Quercus suber (cork oak) and Q. canariensis (Algerian oak), and explored the effects of forest management and environmental (climate, topography) factors on forest structure at various spatial and temporal scales.Location Mountains north of the Strait of Gibraltar (southern Spain).Methods First, we quantified 20th‐century changes in species composition from a series of inventories in nine mixed forests (c. 40,000 ha), and examined them in terms of the management practices and environmental conditions. Second, we analysed present‐day Q. suber and Q. canariensis stand structure along environmental gradients at two spatial scales: (1) that of the forest landscape (c. 284 ha), combining local inventories and topographic variables and using a digital elevation model; and (2) regional (c. 87,600 km2), combining data from the Spanish Forest Inventory for the Andalusia region and estimates of climatic variables.Results Historical data indicate anthropogenic changes in stand composition, revealing a sharp increase in the density of cork oaks over the last century. Forest management has favoured this species (for cork production) at the expense of Q. canariensis. The impact of management is imprinted on the present‐day forest structure. The abundance of both species increases with annual mean precipitation, and they coexist above 800 mm (the minimum threshold for Q. canariensis). Quercus suber dominates in most of the stands, and species segregation in the landscape is associated with the drainage network, Q. canariensis being clearly associated with moister habitats near streams.Main conclusions Our study quantitatively exemplifies a recent human‐mediated shift in forest composition. As a result of forest management, the realized niche of the cork oak has been enlarged at the expense of that of Q. canariensis, providing further evidence for humans as major drivers of oak forest composition across the Mediterranean. Recent regeneration problems detected in Q. suber stands, a reduced demand for wood products, conservation policies, and climate change augur new large‐scale shifts in forest composition.

Modeling the Logistics of Response to Anthrax Bioterrorism

A bioterrorism attack with an agent such as anthrax will require rapid deployment of medical and pharmaceutical supplies to exposed individuals. How should such a logistical system be organized? How much capacity should be built into each element of the bioterrorism response supply chain? The authors developed a compartmental model to evaluate the costs and benefits of various strategies for preattack stockpiling and postattack distribution and dispensing of medical and pharmaceutical supplies, as well as the benefits of rapid attack detection. The authors show how the model can be used to address a broad range of logistical questions as well as related, nonlogistical questions (e.g., the cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve patient adherence to antibiotic regimens). They generate several key insights about appropriate strategies for local communities. First, stockpiling large local inventories of medical and pharmaceutical supplies is unlikely to be the most effective means of reducing mortality from an attack, given the availability of national and regional supplies. Instead, communities should create sufficient capacity for dispensing prophylactic antibiotics in the event of a large-scale bioterror attack. Second, improved surveillance systems can significantly reduce deaths from such an attack but only if the local community has sufficient antibiotic-dispensing capacity. Third, mortality from such an attack is significantly affected by the number of unexposed individuals seeking prophylaxis and treatment. Fourth, full adherence to treatment regimens is critical for reducing expected mortality. Effective preparation for response to potential bioterror attacks can avert deaths in the event of an attack. Models such as this one can help communities more effectively prepare for response to potential bioterror attacks.

The representation of emissions from megacities in global emission inventories

We examine the representation of emissions from megacities in three global anthropogenic emission inventories. Despite the many common sources of data between the inventories, and the similarities in their construction methodologies, there are some very large differences (often a factor of two) between the emissions for individual cities, even when the total global emissions are very similar. We find that the geographical distribution of the emissions within countries plays a larger role in explaining the differences between the inventories than differences in the country total emissions. We also find very large differences between the contribution of various sectors to the total emissions from each city, and relate these differences to the respective methodologies used in the inventory construction. By and large, in OECD countries megacity emissions from the global inventories are dominated by road transport, especially for CO and to a lesser degree for NO x . In non-OECD countries, notably in Asia, megacity CO emissions are dominated by residential biofuel use, while industrial emissions predominate for NO x . Non-methane hydrocarbon emissions in OECD megacities are caused by industry and traffic, whereas in non-OECD countries residential biofuel use makes significant contributions. These emission signatures often result from assumptions about the distribution of emissions according to gridded population density maps rather than according to the actual location of the emitting processes. We recommend the use of an ensemble of inventories, that the geographical distribution of emissions receives increased attention, and that local inventories be integrated into global emission inventories.

MICS-Asia II: An inter-comparison study of emission inventories for the Japan region

For the model intercomparison study, MICS Asia phase II, standard air pollutants emission data are provided from published research results (the TRACE-P data set) and other recent work. To provide preliminary information concerning the reliability of the standard emissions data, this inventory was compared with a local emission inventory, EAGrid2000-Japan, which has been developed for detailed analyses with fine grid data resolution for the Japan region. Although these inventories are based upon different estimation methodologies, from the comparative analyses it was found that regional emissions of the standard data are consistent, with differences smaller than 10% for SO 2, NO x , NMVOC and CO 2, and smaller than 30% for CO and NH 3. Differences for all species are smaller than the 95% confidence intervals that were estimated in the research that produced the standard emissions data. Additional information is provided regarding emissions of PM 10 and PM 2.5, although these did not originate in the TRACE-P data. Furthermore, it was found that the 0.5°×0.5° grid-based emissions from the two inventories match well for NO x , NMVOC, CO, and PM 2.5, even though the spatial allocation techniques for the local inventory are much more detailed. For SO 2 emissions, the differences in the grid-based inventories are greater. Although some problems still remain, such as diurnal variations that are not considered in the standard emissions data, the intercomparison analysis suggests that the standard emissions data have appropriate properties for atmospheric model simulation.

Wood density in forests of Brazil's ‘arc of deforestation’: Implications for biomass and flux of carbon from land-use change in Amazonia

Wood density is an important variable in estimates of forest biomass and greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change. The mean wood density used in estimates of forest biomass in the Brazilian Amazon has heretofore been based on samples from outside the “arc of deforestation”, where most of the carbon flux from land-use change takes place. This paper presents new wood density estimates for the southern and southwest Brazilian Amazon (SSWA) portions of the arc of deforestation, using locally collected species weighted by their volume in large local inventories. Mean wood density was computed for the entire bole, including the bark, and taking into account radial and longitudinal variation. A total of 403 trees were sampled at 6 sites. In the southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA), 225 trees (119 species or morpho-species) were sampled at 4 sites. In eastern Acre state 178 trees (128 species or morpho-species) were sampled at breast height in 2 forest types. Mean basic density in the SBA sites was 0.593 ± 0.113 (mean ± 1 S.D.; n = 225; range 0.265–0.825). For the trees sampled in Acre the mean wood density at breast height was 0.540 ± 0.149 ( n = 87) in open bamboo-dominated forest and 0.619 ± 0.149 ( n = 91) in dense bamboo-free forest. Mean wood density in the SBA sites was significantly higher than in the bamboo dominated forest but not the dense forest at the Acre site. From commercial wood inventories by the RadamBrasil Project in the SSWA portion of the arc of deforestation, the wood volume and wood density of each species or genus were used to estimate average wood density of all wood volume in each vegetation unit. These units were defined by the intersection of mapped forest types and states. The area of each unit was then used to compute a mean wood density of 0.583 g cm −3 for all wood volume in the SSWA. This is 13.6% lower than the value applied to this region in previous estimates of mean wood density. When combined with the new estimates for the SSWA, this gave an average wood density of 0.642 g cm −3 for all the wood volume in the entire Brazilian Amazon, which is 7% less than a prior estimate of 0.69 g cm −3. These results suggest that current estimates of carbon emissions from land-use change in the Brazilian Amazon are too high. The impact on biomass estimates and carbon emissions is substantial because the downward adjustment is greater in forest types undergoing the most deforestation. For 1990, with 13.8 × 10 3 km 2 of deforestation, emissions for the Brazilian Amazon would be reduced by 23.4–24.4 × 10 6 Mg CO 2-equivalent C/year (for high- and low-trace gas scenarios), or 9.4–9.5% of the gross emission and 10.7% of the net committed emission, both excluding soils.

Reducing Mortality from Anthrax Bioterrorism: Strategies for Stockpiling and Dispensing Medical and Pharmaceutical Supplies

A critical question in planning a response to bioterrorism is how antibiotics and medical supplies should be stockpiled and dispensed. The objective of this work was to evaluate the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for maintaining and dispensing local and regional inventories of antibiotics and medical supplies for responses to anthrax bioterrorism. We modeled the regional and local supply chain for antibiotics and medical supplies as well as local dispensing capacity. We found that mortality was highly dependent on the local dispensing capacity, the number of individuals requiring prophylaxis, adherence to prophylactic antibiotics, and delays in attack detection. For an attack exposing 250,000 people and requiring the prophylaxis of 5 million people, expected mortality fell from 243,000 to 145,000 as the dispensing capacity increased from 14,000 to 420,000 individuals per day. At low dispensing capacities (<14,000 individuals per day), nearly all exposed individuals died, regardless of the rate of adherence to prophylaxis, delays in attack detection, or availability of local inventories. No benefit was achieved by doubling local inventories at low dispensing capacities; however, at higher dispensing capacities, the cost-effectiveness of doubling local inventories fell from 100,000 US dollars to 20,000 US dollars/life year gained as the annual probability of an attack increased from 0.0002 to 0.001. We conclude that because of the reportedly rapid availability of regional inventories, the critical determinant of mortality following anthrax bioterrorism is local dispensing capacity. Bioterrorism preparedness efforts directed at improving local dispensing capacity are required before benefits can be reaped from enhancing local inventories.

Comparing Relative Model Fit of Several Species-Accumulation Functions to Local Papilionoidea and Hesperioidea Butterfly Inventories of Mediterranean Habitats

Comparing Relative Model Fit of Several Species-Accumulation Functions to Local Papilionoidea and Hesperioidea Butterfly Inventories of Mediterranean Habitats

Assessment of soil contamination in the vicinity of a research reactor during the decommissioning process

The performance of a collimated in-situ gamma measurement system for the determination of radioactive inventories on places with strong local variations of contamination was assessed. The local inventories and the relaxation depths of 241 Am, 137 Cs and 60 Co at the investigated site were determined by the analysis of soil profiles. Distinct variations of inventories calculated from the analysis of soil profiles could be observed even for sampling sites close to each other. Average relaxation depths were established for the evaluation of the in-situ measurements. Additionally, the isotopic ratios of 238 Pu/ 239 ( 40 ) Pu and 241 Am/ 239 ( 40 ) Pu were determined by alpha-spectrometry for the investigated site.

Quantifying the Effect of Transportation Practices in Military Supply Chains

Traditional multi-echelon inventory and readiness-based models have not fully examined the ability of effective transportation utilization to reduce cost, delay times, and improve readiness in the overall military logistics network. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based methodology for quantifying the effect of transportation options (i.e., truckload shipping, less-than-truckload shipping, transshipments, and express air shipping) on shipping costs, customer wait times, abort rates, and operational availability. Simulation was used to develop a multi-echelon (depots, bases) model of regional supply chain support for aircraft spare part maintenance activities. The resulting model was used for experimentation and to develop response surface equations for the behavior of the system. The logistics implications of the results are discussed as well as managerial insights into the behavior of such systems. Our analysis indicates that focusing more on local inventory and local repair can have a significant impact on the operational availability of the system. This shift should be looked at in terms of the cost of local repair resources compared to transportation costs.

Validation of a small-area method for estimating the spatial distribution of the degree of tree damage

This article presents a validation of a method, proposed in Podlaski (2003), for estimating the degree of tree damage. This method belongs to a group of small-area methods. To estimate the degree of tree damage in individual P3 sub-blocks of the SINUS system of information on the natural environment, a classification based on the degree of defoliation was used. Spatial distribution of the degree of tree damage was estimated through unrestricted simple random sampling. The maximum total estimation error for proportions of fir and beech with a damage degree of zero, and also with second and third degrees jointly, reached a maximum of 35.6% for fir, and 33.8% for beech. P3 sub-blocks characterised by the highest proportion of the healthiest trees (at least 15% being undamaged trees) occurred in patches in the case of fir, and in larger, compact areas in the case of beech. Because spatial diversification in the health of fir, and to a smaller degree in the case of beech, occurs at small scales, small-area methods for estimating tree condition are necessary. An analogous scheme, combining small-area with large-area methods (utilising sub-blocks of the network of large-area systems in a small-area inventory, and establishing a common database), could be used on a wider scale; for example, by supplementing the program of estimating tree health carried out by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Lorenz et al. 2002) with local inventories.

Levantamento das espécies de Simulium (Diptera, Simuliidae), Riacho dos Padres, município de Almirante Tamandaré, Paraná, Brasil

De janeiro a agosto de 2002, quinzenalmente, foi levada a efeito a coleta de simulídeos imaturos em substratos naturais e antrópicos no Riacho dos Padres. O trabalho visou proceder ao inventário das espécies e verificar as freqüências relativas. A área de propriedade particular localizada na Região Metropolitana de Curitiba constitui uma microempresa de agronegócio, com criação de peixes, coelhos, ovinos, bovinos, aves domésticas e, ainda, área de lazer com eqüinos para cavalgada de visitantes. A presença constante de animais hospedeiros e a ração fornecida aos peixes garantiram farta alimentação aos simulídeos, o que favoreceu a explosão desta praga. Em todos os substratos foram coletadas 24.021 pupas e um total de 197.812 larvas. A partir de pupas, foram identificadas com as seguintes freqüências: Simulium inaequale (55,24%), Simulium perflavum (16,81%), Simulium pertinax (13,93%), Simulium orbitale (8,03%), Simulium subnigrum (4,92%), Simulium distinctum (1,03%) e Simulium incrustatum (0,04%). Verificou-se também a quantidade de larvas que colonizaram todos os substratos.

Outcomes of an automated procedure for the selection of effective platelets for patients refractory to random donors based on cross-matching locally available platelet products.

In 1999, we implemented an automated platelet cross-matching (XM) programme to select compatible platelets from the local inventory for patients refractory to random donor platelets. In this study, we evaluated platelet count increments in 40 consecutive refractory patients (8.3% of 480 consecutive platelet recipients) given 569 cross-match-negative platelets between April 1999 and December 2001. XM was performed automatically with a commercially available immunoadherence assay. Pre-, 1- and 24-h post-transfusion platelet counts (mean +/- SD) for the 569 XM-negative platelet transfusions containing 302 +/- 71 x 109 platelets were 7.7 +/- 5.5, 32.0 +/- 21.0 and 16.8 +/- 15.5 x 109/l respectively. Increments were significantly higher (P < 0.05, t-test) than those observed in the same patients given 303 random platelet pools (dose = 318 +/- 52 x 109 platelets) during the month before refractoriness was detected, when pre-, 1- and 24-h post-transfusion counts were 7.0 +/- 8.6, 15.9 +/- 16.1 and 9.6 +/- 12.8 x 109/l respectively. The cost of the platelet XM disposable kit per transfusion to produce 1-h post-transfusion platelet count increments >10 x 109/l was euro 447. This programme enabled the rapid selection of effective platelets for refractory patients, from the local inventory.

Soil erosion study on hillside in Southern Jiangsu Province using the cesium-137 tracer technique

Up to now, there had been little concern about soil erosion in the low mountainous and hilly area of the southern Jiangsu Province. In order to analyze the erosion impacts on the eutrophication of Taihu Lake and on the local soil degradation, the 137Cs tracer technique was used to investigate the process of soil redistribution (soil erosion and soil deposition) in the study area. In our study, various landforms and different land uses were selected and the local 137CS reference inventory of 2,200 Bq m−2 was determined. Based on the principle of the 137Cs tracer technique, mass balance models with a definite physical significance for estimating the degree of erosion of cultivated and uncultivated soils were constructed. In contrast to most of the other models, especially the quantitative model of cultivated soil, 137Cs penetration to the depth below the cultivated layer was taken into account, which might enable to avoid overestimating the erosion rate. The results showed that soil erosion occurred in the southern Jiangsu Province and that the erosion rate of cultivated soil was much higher than that of uncultivated soil. The soil erosion rate in a tea plantation even reached a value of 3,913 Mg km−2 year−1. Besides, the results indicated that human activities can accelerate but also mitigate soil erosion.

Gravitational Lens Time Delays in Cold Dark Matter

In standard cold dark matter (CDM) halo models, the time delay of a gravitational lens is determined by the cold baryon mass fraction, fb ¼ � b; cold=� 0, of the visible galaxy relative to the overall halo. The observed time delays in PG 1115+080, SBS 1520+530, B1600+434, and HE 2149� 2745 give Hubble constants consistent with the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project value of H0 ¼ 72 � 8k m s � 1 Mpc � 1 only if fbe0:2 (onesided 68% confidence), which is larger than the upper bound of fb; max ¼ � b=� 0 ¼ 0:15 � 0:05 estimated from the cosmic microwave background. If all available baryons cool and fb ¼ fb; max, then the time delays imply H0 ¼ 65 � 6k m s � 1 Mpc � 1 (95% confidence). If local inventories of cold baryons, fb ’ 0:013=h70, are correct, then H0 ¼ 52 � 6k m s � 1 Mpc � 1 and the halo parameters closely match isothermal mass models. Isothermal models are also consistent with strong and weak lens studies, stellar dynamics, and X-ray observations on these scales, while significantly more centrally concentrated models are not. There is a conflict between gravitational lens time delays, the local distance scale, and standard CDM halo models. Subject headings: cosmological parameters — dark matter — distance scale — gravitational lensing

Air Quality Management in Izmir Region of Turkey as Required by Clean Air Plans

As a first step to work out an abatement plan against air pollution, a local emission inventory with 1 hr temporal and 1 km spatial resolution in the city of Izmir and its surroundings was prepared. The study area consisted of a 200 × 170 km2 rectangle having the city of Izmir at the centre. The studied pollutants were total particulate matter (PM), sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and carbon monoxide (CO). Emissions of these pollutants were determined by estimation methods making use of suitable emission factors. Emission sources were evaluated in three categories; point, area and line sources. For year 2000 total emissions in the study area on an average day were estimated as 173 tons PM, 299 tons SOx, 136 tons NOx, 68 tons VOC and 320 tons CO. At the second part of the study, calculated emissions were transformed into air quality predictions in the area by using the Industrial Source Complex – Short Term (ISCST3) dispersion model. Model results were tested with monitoring data from urban air quality stations obtained during the year 2000. Results of the past, present and future air quality estimates in the region were discussed. In order to do so, future scenarios including various control technology applications were formulated and tested to see their effect on the future air quality.