Local Inflation Research Articles

Higher-order GNN with Local Inflation for entity alignment

In the age of massive data, the construction of knowledge graph has increasingly become a forceful support for the downstream applications of artificial intelligence. However, the information of entities in knowledge graphs is usually incomplete, so it is urgent to supplement the relations of entities through entity alignment task. Frustratingly, the current entity alignment models are facing serious challenges. First, some models only focus on structural features and other auxiliary information (e.g., attributes, images and descriptions), but ignore the features of the entity itself can be scaled resulting in over-smoothing issue. Second, most models utilize higher-order networks to aggregate neighborhood information by stacking layers, but the training cost of these models are drastically higher. Third, most models are supervised or semi-supervised, but there are few pre-aligned seeds for alignment, which greatly limits the improvement of model performance. Hence, to address the above three issues, we propose a Higher-Order Graph Neural Network with Local Inflation for entity alignment, named HOLI-GNN. Specifically, we introduce a local inflation mechanism, which enlarges the each feature of entities to mitigate the impact of over-smoothing caused by neighborhood aggregation. Additionally, we propose a novel higher-order encoder to capture higher-order information. Furthermore, our model also employ currently popular iteration strategy to increase labeled entity pairs, which can markedly promote the performance of align task. Finally, we perform comprehensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our model on benchmark datasets. The results strongly indicate that our model exhibits better performance than the state-of-the-art models.

Limited Efficiency of Monetary Policy on Local Inflation Rates and Output

This is the second article of a series of two that documents the limited efficiency of the Peruvian monetary policy on local inflation rates. With this research I deepen on my preliminary findings on the unobserved effects of Peruvian monetary policy using departmental Phillips curves. On this occasion, the motivation seeks to answer the question: by incorporating the NAIRU-Keynesian and neo-Keynesian structural model criteria for the Peruvian case, what other unobserved effects of monetary policy would be found in Peru’s departments? Two models of structural equations are developed to estimate the impact of monetary policy at sub-national levels, the first considers the unemployment rate (NAIRU-Keynesian) and the second considers the departmental GDP gap, from which there are counterproductive results that start from the misalignment of departmental economic cycles with the national one which generates inefficiency of monetary policy to reduce departmental inflation, the increase in departmental unemployment and the decrease in the departmental GDP gap.

Управление экономической безопасностью страны посредством механизма инфляции

The article updates the problem of maintaining inflation at a consistently low level. The subjects of management of this process have been identified. 
 The study provides price formation mechanisms using the example of the construction industry. The dynamics of the cost of basic materials used in construction is presented and described. Using these examples from the construction industry, the main drivers of local inflation are identified. 
 The concept of “cost-push inflation scissors” is considered. Some features and prerequisites for inflation and its impact on the economic security of the country's macroeconomic system have been identified. 
 The meaning of effective demand and its role in ensuring the economic security of the macroeconomic system of the state is clarified. The mechanism of inflation targeting is described. Conclusions are drawn about possible scenarios for combating inflation and opportunities to minimize the consequences of its impact. The mechanisms and factors influencing demand and inflation are analyzed: quantitative easing, current accounts. An assessment of the issue of means of payment by the Federal Reserve System is given.

2D Arrays of Soft Actuators Performing Out‐of‐Plane Local Inflation for Shape Displays

Elementary actuators performing branching or surface swelling are the primary units in the actuator integration system that is leveraged in works requiring a high versatility and complex motion. However, those primary actuator units often lack scalability or compatibility at assembly into a compact form due to the complexity of the structure and the actuation interference between adjacent units. Herein, it is shown that the phase‐change actuator in a simple bilayer structure of a top active layer and a bottom constraint layer achieves 1D surface swelling, such that the closely packed 2D array system of this actuator is easily constructed. Upon resistive heating, the active layer inflates based on the phase change of microliquid droplets embedded in an elastomer body. The inflation along the lateral direction of the actuator is suppressed by controlling the thickness ratio between the active and the constraint layers. The actuation of individual units in the array system is performed independently using a switching device with a microcontroller for the parallel application of resistive heating. The application of 2D shape morphing of the actuator arrays in beam steering and shape displays is investigated.

Inflation and Individual Investors’ Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation

Abstract We analyze how individual investors respond to inflation. We introduce a unique data set containing information on local inflation and security portfolios of more than 2,000 clients of a German bank between 1920 and 1924, covering the German hyperinflation. We find that individual investors buy fewer (sell more) stocks when facing higher local inflation. This effect is more pronounced for less sophisticated investors. Moreover, we document a positive relation between local inflation and forgone returns following stock sales. Our findings are consistent with individual investors suffering from money illusion. Alternative explanations, such as consumption needs, are unlikely to drive our results. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

Gradient Origami Metamaterials for Programming Out‐of‐Plane Curvatures

Origami structures are a traditional Japanese art that have recently found their way into engineering applications due to their powerful capability to transform flat 2D structures into complex 3D structures along their creases. This has given a rise to their application as designer materials with unprecedented mechanical characteristics, also known as metamaterials. Herein, gradient Miura‐ori origami metamaterials are introduced as a method to preprogram out‐of‐plane curvatures. Several types of unit cell distributions in the origami lattice structure including checkered, linear gradient, concave radial gradient, convex radial gradient, and striped are considered. The results show that these distributions of Miura‐ori origami can create single‐ or double curvatures including twisting, saddling, bending, local inflation, local twisting, local bending, and wavy shapes, when the origami metamaterial is loaded in compression. All the Gaussian curvatures (negative, positive, and zero) can be achieved using the proposed models. The approach helps tailoring complex preprogrammed surface geometries by employing linearly varying gradient distributions of Miura‐ori origami.

How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries

We consider whether inflation is a ‘global phenomenon’ for European emerging market economies, as has been claimed for advanced or high-income countries. We find that a global inflation factor accounts for more than half of the variance in the national inflation rates, and show that forecasting models of national headline inflation rates that include global inflation factors generally produce more accurate path forecasts than Phillips curve-type models and models with local inflation factors. Our results are qualitatively unaffected by allowing for sparsity and non-linearity in the factor forecasting models. We also provide some insight as to why global factors are an important determinant of domestic inflation, by considering the country-level characteristics that tend to increase the importance of global factors for domestic inflation.

Reliable detection of causal asymmetries in dynamical systems.

Knowledge about existence, strength, and dominant direction of causal influences is of paramount importance for understanding complex systems. Current methods deduce ambiguous causal links among different observables from (complex) dynamical systems, if a limited amount of realistic data is used. It is particularly difficult to infer the dominant direction of causal influence for synchronizing systems. Missing is a statistically well defined approach that avoids false positive detection while being sensitive for weak interactions. The proposed method exploits the local inflation of manifolds to estimate upper bounds on the information loss among state reconstructions and tests for the absence of causal influences. Simulated data demonstrates that it is robust to intrinsic noise, copes with synchronization, and tolerates moderate amounts of measurement noise.

3D large strain hierarchical multiscale analysis of soft fiber-reinforced tissues: application to a degraded arterial wall

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze the mechanical behavior of the arterial wall in the degraded region of the arterial wall and to determine the stress distribution, as an important factor for predicting the potential failure mechanisms in the wall. In fact, while the collagen fiber degradation process itself is not modeled, zones with reduced collagen fiber content (corresponding to the degradation process) are assumed. To do so, a local weakness in the media layer is considered by defining representative volume elements (RVEs) with different fiber collagen contents in the degraded area to investigate the mechanical response of the arterial wall.Design/methodology/approachA three-dimensional (3D) large strain hierarchical multiscale technique, based on the homogenization and genetic algorithm (GA), is utilized to numerically model collagen fiber degradation in a typical artery. Determination of material constants for the ground matrix and collagen fibers in the microscale level is performed by the GA. In order to investigate the mechanical degradation, two types of RVEs with different collagen contents in fibers are considered. Each RVE is divided into two parts of noncollagenous matrix and collagen fiber, and the part of collagen fiber is further divided into matrix and collagen fibrils.FindingsThe von Mises stress distributions on the inner and outer surfaces of the artery and the influence of collagen fiber degradation on thinning of the arterial wall in the degraded area are thoroughly studied. Comparing the maximum stress values on outer and inner surfaces in the degraded region shows that the inner surface is under higher stress states, which makes it more prone to failure. Furthermore, due to the weakness of the artery in the degraded area, it is concluded that the collagen fiber degradation considerably reduces the wall thickness in the degraded area, leading to an observable local inflation across the degraded artery.Originality/valueConsidering that little attention has been paid to multiscale numerical modeling of collagen fiber degradation, in this paper a 3D large strain hierarchical multiscale technique based on homogenization and GA methods is presented. Therefore, while the collagen fiber degradation process itself is not modeled in this study, zones with reduced collagen fiber content (corresponding to the degradation process) are assumed.

The asymmetric effects of the current account balance on inflation

Purpose: We aim to highlight the asymmetric relationship between the current account balance and inflation via the nonlinear boundary test approach for the period 2002:01-2020:10. We analyze the Turkish economy because Turkey has started implementing a new economic policy, which mainly aims to control inflation by maintaining a current account surplus. As a result, the primary purpose of this research is to determine the influence of the current account balance on local inflation, as well as to assist in the formulation of appropriate economic policies to minimize any negative effects on the local economy. Methodology: The nonlinear boundary test approach (NARDL) is used for the 2002:01-2021:10 data period due to the possibility of long-term nonlinear relations between the inflation rate and the current account balance. Results: According to the analysis findings, there is a long-term cointegration relationship between variables. It is deduced that while there exists long-term asymmetry between the current account balance and inflation, the coefficients themselves are not statistically significant, and magnitudes are negligible. However, the effect of dollarization and the lagged values of the CPI on current inflation are statistically significant and substantial, which underpins the importance of inflation inertia, inflation expectations, and the pass-through effect. Conclusion: With a view to stabilizing inflation, policymakers should prevent dollarization by taking the necessary measures.

Estimating housing rent depreciation for inflation adjustments

U.S. inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index, are adjusted for an aging-bias based on estimates of the average rent depreciation. This study analyzes the characteristics of rent depreciation using novel, market-based data on rental contracts in Las Vegas, NV. We find that the estimated annual depreciation rate for new properties is 0.9% for single-family residences and 1.5% for condominiums. The higher depreciation rate for condominiums is due to higher functional obsolescence instead of physical deterioration. Rent depreciation rates are lower for older and smaller structures and vary significantly across neighborhoods. Our results suggest that local inflation rates are biased downward where new and large units increased since the last update to the official rent depreciation estimates but upward where the housing stock became older. From an asset pricing perspective, failing to account for initially high depreciation results in an overvaluation of new properties and an undervaluation of old properties.

Determinants Comparative Advantage of Non-Oil Export 34 Provinces in Indonesia

In spite of the country’s export activities constantly increase every year, based on the latest report Indonesia still sits at number 28th in the world's top export countries, consider Indonesia as one of the most populated nations and its rich natural resources. There is so much research in the literature about this issue, but to the author’s knowledge, there is still a lack of studies that analyze the performance of non-oil export comparative advantage between provinces in Indonesia instead of between its commodities. The purpose of this research is (1st) to compare non-oil exports comparative advantage between 34 provinces in Indonesia and (2nd) to prove the effect of chosen factors which are a foreign direct investment, local direct investment, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, population, labor, minimum wage, education, income disparity, regional GDP, government expenditure, and GDP of importing country toward provinces comparative advantage of non-oil export. This research using provinces panel data years 2010-2019. The method of this study is Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index and Trade Balance Index (TBI) to unveil non-oil export comparative advantage between 34 provinces in Indonesia and panel data regression to estimate the impact of determinant factors. The result of comparative advantage index estimation shows that 24 provinces have a comparative advantage based on the RCA index approach and 32 provinces have a comparative advantage based on the TBI approach on non-oil export activities year 2010-2019. The result of panel data regression found that 9 out of 13 determinant variables had a significant effect on the RCA index namely foreign direct investment, local direct investment, exchange rate, population, labor, minimum wage, income disparity, regional GDP, and government expenditure. Then 6 out of 13 determinant variables had a significant effect on TBI which are a local direct investment, interest rate, exchange rate, education, income disparity, and regional GDP.

The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times

Over the past three decades, a sustained surge in inflation has been absent in developed markets. As a result, investors face the challenge of having limited experience and no recent data to guide the repositioning of their portfolios in the face of heightened inflation risk. In this article, the authors provide some insight by analyzing both passive and active strategies across a variety of asset classes for the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan over the past 95 years. Unexpected inflation is bad news for traditional assets, such as bonds and equities, with local inflation having the greatest effect. Commodities have positive returns during inflation surges, but there is considerable variation within the commodity complex. Among the active strategies, the authors find that trend-following provides the most reliable protection during important inflation shocks. Active equity factor strategies also provide some degree of hedging ability. The authors also provide an analysis of alternative asset classes such as fine art and discuss the economic rationale for including cryptocurrencies as part of a strategy to protect against inflation. <b>TOPICS:</b>Developed markets, financial crises and financial market history, risk management, portfolio management/multi-asset allocation <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ The authors examine a range of passive and active strategies using a century of data in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan and find that passive equity and fixed-income strategies fare poorly during inflation surges. ▪ Commodities provide historical inflation protection, as do collectibles such as wine and fine art. ▪ Active strategies such as trend-following fare well during historical inflation surges, and equity factor strategies such as quality provide some protection.

The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times

Over the past three decades, a sustained surge in inflation has been absent in developed markets. As a result, investors face the challenge of having limited experience and no recent data to guide the repositioning of their portfolios in the face of heighted inflation risk. We provide some insight by analyzing both passive and active strategies across a variety of asset classes for the U.S., U.K., and Japan over the past 95 years. Unexpected inflation is bad news for traditional assets, such as bonds and equities, with local inflation having the greatest effect. Commodities have positive returns during inflation surges but there is considerable variation within the commodity complex. Among the dynamic strategies, we find that trend-following provides the most reliable protection during important inflation shocks. Active equity factor strategies also provide some degree of hedging ability. We also provide analysis of alternative asset classes such as fine art and discuss the economic rationale for including cryptocurrencies as part of a strategy to protect against inflation.

Exploring the sources of inflation dynamics: New evidence from China

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the idea of shift-share analysis, where local inflation is decomposed into the national factor, structural stickiness (with sectoral and regional aspects), and a localized pricing power effect in order to gain a better understanding of the inflation dynamics. We apply price-level data in China as a dual economy, which has historically been separated into urban and rural areas. The results show that sectoral differences in inflation are the most important factor explaining inflation in China, while local pricing power must be seriously considered in many sectors in rural areas.

Thalamic morphology predicts the onset of freezing of gait in Parkinson\u2019s disease

The onset of freezing of gait (FOG) in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a critical milestone, marked by a higher risk of falls and reduced quality of life. FOG is associated with alterations in subcortical neural circuits, yet no study has assessed whether subcortical morphology can predict the onset of clinical FOG. In this prospective multimodal neuroimaging cohort study, we performed vertex-based analysis of grey matter morphology in fifty-seven individuals with PD at study entry and two years later. We also explored the behavioral correlates and resting-state functional connectivity related to these local volume differences. At study entry, we found that freezers (N = 12) and persons who developed FOG during the course of the study (converters) (N = 9) showed local inflations in bilateral thalamus in contrast to persons who did not (non-converters) (N = 36). Longitudinally, converters (N = 7) also showed local inflation in the left thalamus, as compared to non-converters (N = 36). A model including sex, daily levodopa equivalent dose, and local thalamic inflation predicted conversion with good accuracy (AUC: 0.87, sensitivity: 88.9%, specificity: 77.8%). Exploratory analyses showed that local thalamic inflations were associated with larger medial thalamic sub-nuclei volumes and better cognitive performance. Resting-state analyses further revealed that converters had stronger thalamo-cortical coupling with limbic and cognitive regions pre-conversion, with a marked reduction in coupling over the two years. Finally, validation using the PPMI cohort suggested FOG-specific non-linear evolution of thalamic local volume. These findings provide markers of, and deeper insights into conversion to FOG, which may foster earlier intervention and better mobility for persons with PD.

Inflation and Investors' Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation

This paper analyzes how individual investors respond to inflation. We introduce a unique dataset containing information on local inflation and security portfolios of more than 2,000 clients of a German bank between 1920 and 1924, covering the hyperinflation. We find that individual investors buy less (sell more) stocks when facing higher local inflation. This effect is more pronounced for less sophisticated investors. We also document a positive relation between local inflation and forgone returns following stock sales. Our findings are consistent with individual investors suffering from money illusion. Alternative explanations such as consumption needs are unlikely to drive our results.

Precursory ground deformation of the 2018 phreatic eruption on Iwo-Yama volcano, revealed by four-dimensional joint analysis of airborne and spaceborne InSAR

We present detailed maps of local-scale 3D deformation preceding the 2018 phreatic eruption at Iwo-yama volcano (south of Kyushu Island, Japan), using a combination of airborne and spaceborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data. The 3D and 2.5D deformation maps obtained at different periods allow us to successfully track their spatiotemporal evolution and to infer the transition of subsurface conditions responsible for the precursory deformation observed from 2014 to 2018. From 2014 to 2016, ground inflation depicted an axisymmetric pattern with the maximum displacement at the center of the deformed area. However, from 2016 to 2018, an inflation peak moved to the southern edge of the area deformed during 2014–2016 and became more localized, which was close to the newly generated vents in the 2018 eruption. Modeling of the inflations suggests that pressurization within a crack at a depth of 150 m beneath the Iwo-yama geothermal area caused the 2014–2016 deformation and had continued until the 2018 eruption. Modeling results highlight the persistence of the local ground inflation pattern just above the southern edge of the crack, which suggests the presence of a shallower inflation source contributing to the local inflation. Consequently, we interpret the sequence of these deformations as follows: from 2014, deeper-rooted fluid started to inject into a fluid-saturated crack at 150-m depth, which caused the 2014–2016 deformation. Then, after 2016, the crack inflation continued because of the continuous fluid injection and formed another pressurized part directly above the southern tip of the crack. Additionally, the results of the time-series analysis of the satellite InSAR data revealed that the local inflation started around April 2017 for which thermal activity including a mud emission became pronounced around the location of the local inflation. As a result of an episodic increase in supply rate of magmatic fluids from a deep magma reservoir from early 2018, a phreatic eruption finally occurred in the vicinity of the most deformed point, providing a clue for predicting future eruption sites, as was also observed in the Hakone 2015 eruption.

Illusory effects of performance management: the case of contracts for excellence in New York school districts

ABSTRACT Performance Management systems are ubiquitous in contemporary public management. However, evidence of their performance effects is inconclusive. The Contracts for Excellence (C4E) reform required 58 New York State public school districts to develop individualized reform plans and report compliance and performance measures to authorities. This study evaluates C4E’s impact on organizational performance using a difference-in-differences approach. Findings suggest negative or precisely estimated null effects on standardized test scores ranging from −0.02 to −0.07 standard deviations. Findings suggest undesirable organizational responses may have compromised the reform, such as crowding out of local revenue collection and inflation of performance metrics.

Spillovers of the Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy from the US to South Africa

AbstractThis paper assesses the effect of US monetary policy on South Africa during the period 1990–2018. We separately analyse and compare the effect of conventional monetary policy, before the Global Financial Crisis, and unconventional monetary policy, after the US monetary policy reached the zero‐lower bound. Our impulse response function results indicate that monetary policy in South Africa responds mainly to local inflation, economic activity and financial conditions. While there is strong correlation between the global and South African financial cycle, the financial cycle is not transmitted to the real economy because of the sluggish response of industrial production and domestic credit, especially after the global financial crisis. We see this as an indication of the effects of structural issues to the real economy and constrained households’ balance sheet which has prevented the local economy to take advantage of low local interest rates and the global economic recovery after the crisis.