Local Demography Research Articles

Population Dynamics of the Village of Chumay in the XIX – Early XX Centuries

The article deals with the population dynamics of the village of Chumay in the XIX – early XX centuries. The main research objective was to study statistical data and identify the causes and conditions that had a decisive impact on the demographic situation in Chumay during the period under review. The study was based on a critical analysis of published and unpublished historical sources. The reliability of the data was checked by comparing the arithmetic mean values. The analysis involved the number of houses and farms, the total number of residents, and their distribution by class, religion, and gender. The resettlement policy of the state and the associated natural growth proved to be the main factor that affected the population of Chumay. The population growth was associated with the permanent placement of exiles in Chumay. Voluntary immigrants from the inner provinces of Russia did not have a significant impact on the local demography. The paper also introduces the average population of the Chumay household in the XIX – early XX centuries.

The Baloch Insurgency in Pakistan and the Chinese Connection

This article examines the interplay between big ticket investment projects financed by the Chinese capital and ethno-nationalism in the province of Balochistan. It argues that the growing Chinese presence in Balochistan has provided a new impetus to an already simmering Baloch nationalist resistance. Balochistan has profuse natural resource wealth, yet its riches have not benefited its people. The Baloch are one of the most deprived communities in Pakistan. Successive central governments have exploited the province’s resources in the name of development to the detriment of its inhabitants. The advent of CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) has exacerbated Baloch grievances. They believe that mega-development projects like Gwadar port would impinge adversely on local demography by attracting a huge influx of economic migrants and render the Baloch minority in their own land. The insurgent groups view China as a ‚partner in crime‘ and have responded by selectively targeting Chinese assets and personnel. The article analyses the nature of resistance to Chinese presence and the changing modus of insurgent groups. It argues that Islamabad’s attempts to deter the attacks by intensifying the militarisation of the province are counterproductive as they reinforce Baloch opposition to CPEC.

The Baloch Insurgency in Pakistan and the Chinese Connection

This article examines the interplay between big ticket investment projects financed by the Chinese capital and ethno-nationalism in the province of Balochistan. It argues that the growing Chinese presence in Balochistan has provided a new impetus to an already simmering Baloch nationalist resistance. Balochistan has profuse natural resource wealth, yet its riches have not benefited its people. The Baloch are one of the most deprived communities in Pakistan. Successive central governments have exploited the province’s resources in the name of development to the detriment of its inhabitants. The advent of CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) has exacerbated Baloch grievances. They believe that mega-development projects like Gwadar port would impinge adversely on local demography by attracting a huge influx of economic migrants and render the Baloch minority in their own land. The insurgent groups view China as a ‚partner in crime‘ and have responded by selectively targeting Chinese assets and personnel. The article analyses the nature of resistance to Chinese presence and the changing modus of insurgent groups. It argues that Islamabad’s attempts to deter the attacks by intensifying the militarisation of the province are counterproductive as they reinforce Baloch opposition to CPEC.

Interplay between mobility, multi-seeding and lockdowns shapes COVID-19 local impact.

Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.

Spatial structure and dispersal dynamics in a house sparrow metapopulation.

The effects of spatial structure on metapopulation dynamics depend upon the interaction between local population dynamics and dispersal, and how this relationship is affected by the geographical isolation and spatial heterogeneity in habitat characteristics. Our aim is to examine how emigration and immigration of house sparrows Passer domesticus in a Norwegian archipelagic metapopulation are affected by key factors predicted by classic metapopulation models to affect dispersal-spatial and temporal variation in population size, inter-island distance, local demography and habitat characteristics. This metapopulation can be divided into two major habitat types: (a) islands closer to the mainland where sparrows breed in colonies on farms, and (b) islands without farms, situated farther away from the mainland where sparrows are exposed to harsher environmental conditions. Dispersal was spatially structured within the metapopulation; there was proportionally and numerically less emigration and immigration involving farm islands, as compared to non-farm islands. Furthermore, emigration and immigration occurred mostly between nearby islands. Moreover, emigration in response to spatial differences in mean population size differed between the habitat types, but populations with large mean received more immigrants in both habitat types. The number of emigrants and immigrants was negatively related to long-term recruit production, which was not the case in non-farm islands. The proportion and number of emigrants was positively related to temporal increases in recruit production on farm islands, however not on non-farm islands. Our results demonstrate that spatial heterogeneity in environmental conditions influences how spatial variation in long-term mean population size, and temporal and spatial variation in recruit production, affects dispersal dynamics. The spatial structure of this metapopulation is therefore best described by a spatially explicit model in which the exchange of individuals within each habitat type is strongly affected by the degree of geographical isolation, population size and recruit production. However, these relationships differed between the two habitat types; non-farm islands showing similarities to a mainland-island model type of structure, whereas farm islands showed features more associated with source-sink or balanced dispersal models. Such differential dispersal dynamics between habitat types are expected to have important consequences for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics within this metapopulation.

Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

AbstractClimate change has different and sometimes divergent effects on terrestrial and marine food webs, and in coastal ecosystems, these effects are tightly interlinked. Responses of opportunistic coastal predators and scavengers to climate change may thus be complex and potentially highly flexible, and can simultaneously serve as indicators of, and have profound impacts on, lower trophic levels. Gaining mechanistic understanding of these responses is therefore important, but often not feasible due to lack of long‐term data from marked individuals. Here, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) to elucidate the effects of arctic warming and concurrent changes in terrestrial and marine resource availability on population dynamics of the opportunistic arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Svalbard. Joint analysis of four types of data (den survey, age‐at‐harvest, placental scars, mark‐recovery) revealed relatively stable population size and age structure over the last 22 yr (1997–2019) despite rapid environmental change linked to climate warming. This was related to the fact that terrestrial resources (reindeer carcasses, geese) became more abundant while the availability of marine resources (seal pups/carrion) decreased, and was driven by divergent trends in different vital rates (e.g., increased pregnancy rate but decreased pup survival). Balanced contributions of survival vs. reproduction and of immigration vs. local demography further stabilized population size. Our study thus sheds light on the mechanisms underlying population dynamics of opportunistic carnivores exploiting terrestrial and marine resources and suggests that exploitation of resources across different ecosystems can buffer predators against climate change. Additionally, it highlights the large potential of IPMs as tools to understand and predict the effects of environmental change on wildlife populations, even when data on marked individuals are sparse.

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems.

How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In districts that are polarized between politically competing ethnic groups, violence can be targeted with comparative ease at opposing voters, and can, if perpetrated collectively, mobilize the perpetrators’ co-ethnics. I do not expect such dynamics in PR systems where political competition plays out at higher geographical levels. To test this argument, I combine new data on the ethnic composition of local populations in 22 African countries with monthly data on riots and survey data on campaign violence. Ethno-politically polarized districts in majoritarian and mixed electoral systems see substantively larger increases in the number of riots prior to legislative elections and more fear of pre-election violence among citizens than non-polarized districts in the same country and at the same time. I do not find these patterns in PR systems. The results enhance our understanding of how electoral systems interact with local ethnic demography in shaping pre-election violence.

Post-Pandemic Recovery: A Case of Domestic Tourism in Akaroa (South Island, New Zealand)

The current pandemic (Covid-19) disrupted businesses and challenged societies all over the world. In particular, destinations are being urged to keep the attraction and value of their products and services in post-pandemic tourism recovery programs. Drawing from a qualitative study based on published reports and research, and using participant observation, this research analyses the situation of tourism in Akaroa, South Island of New Zealand, during the coronavirus outbreak and the first stages of the recovery process. Results of the research show that while crisis management led to the closure of the sector due to strict social and travel restrictions, the confinement measures adopted by the government and the progressive reopening of the country has resulted in a shift from “cruise tourism” into a gradual return of “domestic tourism”. This paper argues that local peoples’ perspectives must be kept in mind when developing a tourism recovery strategy. This case study also shows that because of the nature of changing working environment, there is potential to change local demography in the form of an increase in residents putting pressure on local infrastructure. In a rural and marine environment, local stakeholders’ attention is required to focus on “quality” of tourism rather than “quantity”. Nature-based resources and outdoor activities are expected to be the critical ingredients for tourism’s immediate and sustainable future.

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action.

Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.

Analysis of Business Internal Factors that Impact the profit of IT Entrepreneurship

the aim of this study is to find out the impact of business internal factors towards the business profit for IT entrepreneurships in Bangalore. We have taken the sample size from 200 companies of Bangalore. We have undertaken the internal factors like IT management skill, organization culture, leadership, project implementation experience, technical, marketing, business cash flow, physical asset, HR function, organization maturity into the consideration. We have taken the business profit and business profit as measurement of success factors for the business. During study it was identified that certain business internal factors i.e. organizational culture, business leader’s skill, technical skill, marketing skill, organization maturity and cash flow has significant impact on business success. Whereas other factors social acceptance of business, social culture, supply of local workforce, demography, business location, climate, law and order, corruption has no impact of significance on IT entrepreneurship’s profit.

The demographic contributions of connectivity versus local dynamics to population growth of an endangered bird.

Conservation and management increasingly focus on connectivity, because connectivity driven by variation in immigration rates across landscapes is thought to be crucial for maintaining local population and metapopulation persistence. Yet, efforts to quantify the relative role of immigration on population growth across the entire range of species and over time have been lacking. We assessed whether immigration limited local and range-wide population growth of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA, over 18years using multi-state, reverse-time modelling that accounts for imperfect detection of individuals and unobservable states. Demographic contributions of immigration varied depending on the dynamics and geographic position of the local populations, were scale-dependent and changed over time. By comparing the relative contributions of immigration versus local demography for periods of significant change in local abundance, we found empirical evidence for a disproportionately large role of immigration in facilitating population growth of a centrally located population-a connectivity 'hub'. The importance of connectivity changed depending of the spatial scale considered, such that immigration was a more important driver of population growth at small versus large spatial scales. Furthermore, the contribution of immigration was much greater during time periods when local population size was small, emphasizing abundance-dependent rescue effects. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at improving local breeding habitat will likely be most effective at increasing snail kite population growth. More broadly, our results provide much needed information on the role of connectivity for population growth, suggesting that connectivity conservation may have the greatest benefits when efforts focus on centrally located habitat patches and small populations. Furthermore, our results highlight that connectivity is highly dynamic over time and that interpreting the effects of connectivity at local scales may not transfer to region-wide dynamics.

Quantifying geographic heterogeneity in TB incidence and the potential impact of geographically targeted interventions in South and North City Corporations of Dhaka, Bangladesh: a model-based study.

In rapidly growing and high-burden urban centres, identifying tuberculosis (TB) transmission hotspots and understanding the potential impact of interventions can inform future control and prevention strategies. Using data on local demography, TB reports and patient reporting patterns in Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) and Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC), Bangladesh, between 2010 and 2017, we developed maps of TB reporting rates across wards in DSCC and DNCC and identified wards with high rates of reported TB (i.e. 'hotspots') in DSCC and DNCC. We developed ward-level transmission models and estimated the potential epidemiological impact of three TB interventions: active case finding (ACF), mass preventive therapy (PT) and a combination of ACF and PT, implemented either citywide or targeted to high-incidence hotspots. There was substantial geographic heterogeneity in the estimated TB incidence in both DSCC and DNCC: incidence in the highest-incidence wards was over ten times higher than in the lowest-incidence wards in each city corporation. ACF, PT and combined ACF plus PT delivered to 10% of the population reduced TB incidence by a projected 7%-9%, 13%-15% and 19%-23% over five years, respectively. Targeting TB hotspots increased the projected reduction in TB incidence achieved by each intervention 1.4- to 1.8-fold. The geographical pattern of TB notifications suggests high levels of ongoing TB transmission in DSCC and DNCC, with substantial heterogeneity at the ward level. Interventions that reduce transmission are likely to be highly effective and incorporating notification data at the local level can further improve intervention efficiency.

Predicting non-residential building fire risk using geospatial information and convolutional neural networks

Building fire risk prediction is crucial for allocation of building inspection resources and prevention of fire incidents. Existing research of building fire prediction makes use of data relating to local demography, crime, building use and physical building characteristics, yet few studies have analysed the relative importance of predictive features. Furthermore, image features relating to buildings, such as aerial imagery and digital surface models (DSM), have not been explored. This research presents a multi-modal hybrid neural network for the prediction of fire risk at the building level using the London Fire Brigade dataset. The inclusion of traditional and novel image features is assessed using Shapley values and an ablation study. The ablation study found that while building use is the most effective contributor of classification performance, demographic features, apart from social class, are detrimental. Moreover, while the DSM did not lead to any notable improvement in classification performance, the inclusion of the aerial imagery feature lead to a 4% increase in median validation ROC AUC. The final model presented achieved an ROC AUC of 0.8195 on the test set.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Correlating changes for environmental, technological and societal transformation in prehistoric eastern Asia

Identifying and explaining changes in the prehistoric material and social world is one of the greatest research interests in archaeology, palaeoclimate and environmental science. In the last two decades or so, a considerable number of studies have made significant contributions to the associated disciplines in eastern Asian archaeology. However, due to the more specialised scientific approaches and the rapid accumulation of new excavation materials, it becomes increasingly difficult for scholars to examine and correlate research outputs from different areas and achieve a holistic picture of the past. Using eastern Asian archaeology as an example, this Special Issue aims to break down the disciplinary boundaries and present the current research debate on how to correlate different climate, environmental and social changes and explain human past. One of the fundamental issues is the lack of adequate chronological resolution to order various archaeological events. To tackle this, a large number of radiocarbon dates, primarily derived from short- lived materials, are provided in the Special Issue. A great variety of changes in local environment, agricultural practice, animal husbandry, technologies, migration, demography and social organisations are revealed in the following papers but there are two profound drivers to all of these changes. One is the broad climate change since the start of the Holocene and the other is the communication between the West and the East.

Who Benefits? How Local Ethnic Demography Shapes Political Favoritism in Africa

AbstractEmpirical studies show that many governments gear the provision of goods and services towards their ethnic peers. This article investigates governments’ strategies to provide ethnic favors in Africa. Recent studies of ethnic favoritism find that presidents' ethnic peers and home regions enjoy advantages, yet cannot disentangle whether goods are provided to entire regions or co-ethnic individuals. This article argues that local ethnic demography determines whether governments provide non-excludable public goods or more narrowly targeted handouts. Where government co-ethnics are in the majority, public goods benefit all locals regardless of their ethnic identity. Outside of these strongholds, incumbents pursue discriminatory strategies and only their co-ethnics gain from favoritism. Using fine-grained geographic data on ethnic demographics, the study finds support for the argument's implications in the local incidence of infant mortality. These findings have important implications for theories of distributive politics and conflict in multi-ethnic societies.

Determinants of Rice Import Demand in Nigeria

Primarily, the study examined the determinants of rice import demand in Nigeria by assessing the short run and long run dynamic model relationships among the determinants, trends and extent of causality among per capita income, population, exchange rate and price of rice imports were equally examined, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and National Bureau of statistics (NBS) over the period 1961 to 2013. Data obtained showed the perceived determinants of imports demand for rice in Nigeria were local rice production, rice import price, rice consumption, per capita income, and exchange rate, price of local rice, domestic stock variation, maize price, meat price and demographic development. The short run dynamic model result showed that rice consumption, price of meat, price of maize, local rice quantity, demography development and stock variance are statistically significant at 5%. The significance of the coefficient of the error correction term confirmed theappropriateness of the error correction approach which also showed that ignoring the long run relationship is detrimental. The result however, revealed that rice import demand increases significantly with increasing rice consumption, increasing price of meat, increasing price of maize (keeping that for imported rice unchanged) and increasing demography development. Rice import price, per capita income, price of local rice and exchange rate had no significant effects on rice import demand. The study therefore recommends that locally-produced rice should be intensively improved.
 Keywords: demography, determinants, Error correction mechanism, rice import demand

Parentage analyses identify local dispersal events and sibling aggregations in a natural population of Millepora hydrocorals, a free‐spawning marine invertebrate

Dispersal is a critical process for the persistence and productivity of marine populations. For many reef species, there is increasing evidence that local demography and self-recruitment have major consequences on their genetic diversity and adaptation to environmental change. Yet empirical data of dispersal patterns in reef-building species remain scarce. Here, we document the first genetic estimates of self-recruitment and dispersal distances in a free-spawning marine invertebrate, the hydrocoral Millepora cf. platyphylla. Using twelve microsatellite markers, we gathered genotypic information from 3,160 georeferenced colonies collected over 27,000m2 of a single reef in three adjacent habitats in Moorea, French Polynesia; the mid slope, upper slope, and back reef. Although the adult population was predominantly clonal (85% were clones), our parentage analysis revealed a moderate self-recruitment rate with a minimum of 8% of sexual propagules produced locally. Assigned offspring often settled at <10m from their parents and dispersal events decrease with increasing geographic distance. There were no discrepancies between the dispersal distances of offspring assigned to parents belonging to clonal versus nonclonal genotypes. Interhabitat dispersal events via cross-reef transport were also detected for sexual and asexual propagules. Sibship analysis showed that full siblings recruit nearby on the reef (more than 40% settled at <30m), resulting in sibling aggregations. Our findings highlight the importance of self-recruitment together with clonality in stabilizing population dynamics, which may ultimately enhance local sustainability and resilience to disturbance.

Urban Form, Air Quality, and Cardiorespiratory Mortality: A Path Analysis.

With the unprecedented urbanization during the past three decades, air quality in many Chinese cities has been a serious issue which poses great challenges for urban sustainability. This study examines the health consequences of development patterns in China by establishing the linkage between urban form, air pollution level, and cardiorespiratory mortality rate. We assembled a dataset by compiling a series of variables from multiple sources, including China’s Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system, which forms a nationally representative sample of mortality for the year 2005, Chinese census, satellite imagery, and the Chinese National Land Use Database. After controlling for local climate, demography, socioeconomics, and other pollution factors, this study finds that urban form elements (e.g., urban density, fragmentation level, forest/green space ratio) have significant influences on PM2.5 (atmospheric particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers) concentration, thus influencing the incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality at the county level. These results may help explain how the type and pattern of development shape public health by influencing air quality and form an evidence-based land use policy to improve environmental quality and public health.

On Racial Disparities in Recent Fatal Police Shootings

Fatal police shootings in the United States continue to be a polarizing social and political issue. Clear disagreement between racial proportions of victims and nationwide racial demographics together with graphic video footage has created fertile ground for controversy. However, simple population level summary statistics fail to take into account fundamental local characteristics such as county-level racial demography, local arrest demography, and law enforcement density. Using data on fatal police shootings between January 2015 and July 2016, I implement a number of straightforward resampling procedures designed to carefully examine how unlikely the victim totals from each race are with respect to these local population characteristics if no racial bias were present in the decision to shoot by police. I present several approaches considering the shooting locations both as fixed and also as a random sample. In both cases, I find overwhelming evidence of a racial disparity in shooting victims with respect to local population demographics but substantially less disparity after accounting for local arrest demographics. I conclude the analyses by examining the effect of police-worn body cameras and find no evidence that the presence of such cameras impacts the racial distribution of victims. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Constraining black hole–galaxy scaling relations and radiative efficiency from galaxy clustering

The masses of supermassive black holes are observed to increase with either the total mass or the mean (random) velocity of the stars in their host galaxies. The origin of these correlations remains elusive due to observational systematics and biases that severely limit our knowledge of the local demography of supermassive black holes. Here, we show that the large-scale spatial distribution of local active galactic nuclei (AGN) can constrain the shape and normalization of the black hole–stellar mass relation, thus bypassing resolution-related observational biases. In turn, our results can set more stringent constraints on the AGN radiative efficiency, e. For currently accepted values of the AGN obscured fractions and bolometric corrections, our estimated local supermassive black hole mass density favours mean e values of ~10–20%, suggesting that the vast majority of supermassive black holes are spinning moderately to rapidly. With large-scale AGN surveys coming online, our methodology will enable even tighter constraints on the fundamental parameters that regulate the growth of supermassive black holes. The large-scale spatial distribution of local active galactic nuclei can constrain the black hole–stellar mass relation and their mean radiative efficiency to 10–20%, suggesting moderate to high spins for the vast majority of supermassive black holes.