Local Climate Research Articles

Uncovering sea level patterns in Caspian Sea altimetry data

ABSTRACT This study introduces a technique to uncover concealed patterns in satellite altimetry data, reflecting sea level variations in inland water bodies. We applied the methodology to the Caspian Sea, using altimetry data from four satellite missions over 27 years (1993–2020): TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason1, Jason2, and Jason3. The approach involves two steps: estimating sea level trends and identifying breakpoints that indicate trend shifts; and leveraging time lags between breakpoints at various locations to classify water drainage areas according to their degree of influence on each period. By revealing concealed patterns in the altimetry data, this technique can provide insights to understand the impacts of global warming and local climate changes on sea level fluctuations in the Caspian Sea. We hope that our study can facilitate subsequent interdisciplinary research on the intricate interplay between climate change and hydrological processes in inland water bodies.

The effect of local climatic conditions on household consumption: a case study of South Africa

The article explores the causal effect of local climate conditions on household consumption in South Africa. The climatic conditions are represented by monthly average temperature and precipitation. The study utilises the nationally representative 2017 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), wave 5 data and 2017 Climate Research Unit (CRU) climate data. The parsimonious quantile regression shows that climatic conditions (precipitation, temperature, wet days, and cloud cover) impact household per capita consumption. The quadratic quantile regression model analysis shows that household per capita consumption is convex in precipitation. Below the turning point, increased precipitation is associated with decreased household per capita consumption. Above the turning point, increased precipitation is related to increased household per capita consumption. Regions that receive very low precipitation or experience extreme temperatures (very cold or very hot) require tailor-made interventions to alleviate consumption. When we control for household characteristics, the impact of climatic conditions on household per capita consumption is weak. Providing inclusive development policies and programmes can mitigate the impact of climatic conditions on household per capita consumption.

Optimal sizing of off-grid microgrid building-integrated-photovoltaic system with battery for a net zero energy residential building in different climates of Morocco

An optimal sizing of an off-grid microgrid system composed of photovoltaic (PV)/building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV)/battery energy storage installation is undergone for Net Zero Energy Residential Building blocks across six different climates of Morocco. The Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal sizing of the system, by considering the hourly spatiotemporal variations in both solar energy availability and energy demand, with the lowest Total Annualized Cost as the objective function and capacities of BIPV and battery as decision variables. The methodology adopted focuses on main load fulfillment through direct PV and BIPV power supply, backed by battery energy storage technology, to continually guarantee self-sufficiency. A key metric, the load cover factor, is introduced to quantify the ratio by which the load demand is satisfied by the solar PV and BIPV systems. The findings show that the optimal sizing of the BIPV system can help to improve the load cover factor by 0.68–2.58 %. Moreover, integrating BIPV system with PV system and Battery leads to a reduction in the Levelized Cost of Energy with approximately 8.7–20.72 %, as opposed to utilizing only the PV system and battery. Depending on the local climate, the levelized cost of energy ranges from $0.366/kWh in Ouarzazate city up to $0.664/kWh in Ifrane city. Lastly, this holistic approach aims to transform the building from its traditional role as an energy consumer to a carbon-free energy prosumer.

A data science approach to climate change risk assessment applied to pluvial flood occurrences for the United States and Canada

Abstract There is mounting pressure on (re)insurers to quantify the impacts of climate change, notably on the frequency and severity of claims due to weather events such as flooding. This is however a very challenging task for (re)insurers as it requires modeling at the scale of a portfolio and at a high enough spatial resolution to incorporate local climate change effects. In this paper, we introduce a data science approach to climate change risk assessment of pluvial flooding for insurance portfolios over Canada and the United States (US). The underlying flood occurrence model quantifies the financial impacts of short-term (12–48 h) precipitation dynamics over the present (2010–2030) and future climate (2040–2060) by leveraging statistical/machine learning and regional climate models. The flood occurrence model is designed for applications that do not require street-level precision as is often the case for scenario and trend analyses. It is applied at the full scale of Canada and the US over 10–25 km grids. Our analyses show that climate change and urbanization will typically increase losses over Canada and the US, while impacts are strongly heterogeneous from one state or province to another, or even within a territory. Portfolio applications highlight the importance for a (re)insurer to differentiate between future changes in hazard and exposure, as the latter may magnify or attenuate the impacts of climate change on losses.

Mathematical Modeling of The Estimate of Methane Gas Generation, of The Organic Fraction Of Msw From The Agreste Alagoano Sanitary Landfill, From Standard Data And Experimental Data

Objective: The objective of this study is to carry out mathematical modeling in the generation of methane gas, through two mathematical models, using standard data and data obtained in the laboratory. Theoretical framework: The emission of methane gas, generated by the decomposition of solid waste in landfills, is one of the serious problems of air pollution and one way to minimize the impacts of methane on the environment is through its use to generate energy. To this end, there are ways to estimate the generation of CH4 during the useful life of the landfill. Method: For modeling, the computer programs of LandGEM and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to carry out the theoretical estimate of CH4 production during the useful life of the Agreste Alagoano landfill in two scenarios: one with standard program values for the local climate region and another with information obtained from experimental data from research by Santana (2022). Results and Discussion: When standard input data was adopted, the LandGEM model presented a 38% higher value in CH4 production compared to the IPCC model. When considering input data obtained experimentally, the IPCC showed CH4 generation 32.66% higher than the LandGEM, this was possible due to the COD value that was high as a result of the L0 of the organic fraction, exceeding the theoretical value of 0.15 to the experimental value of 0.27 in the new scenario. Implications of the research: Determining parameters for modeling methane gas generation will help in managing landfill waste and its energy recovery potential, in addition to the application of mathematical models for estimating biogas production potential as tools essential for both energy and environmental studies. Originality/value: This research presents as originality the determination of experimental parameters applied to the mathematical modeling of methane gas generation in landfills in the rural region, since studies on modeling in landfills with the climatic conditions of the rural region of Brazil are not common in the literature.

Age and growth reductions increase the proportion of dark heartwood in sugar maple at the northern limit of its range

Abstract The wood of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) in the northernmost part of the species range often exhibits high proportions of discoloured wood at the centre of the stems, which is referred to as dark heartwood. This defect significantly decreases the wood market value of the species, which, in turn, challenges the implementation of state-of-the art silvicultural treatments. The causes of dark heartwood are associated with trauma and the colder climate of the northern regions. In this study, we investigate factors influencing the occurrence of dark heartwood in sugar maple’s northern populations, considering tree age, vigour, stem growth, and local climate. We also aimed to determine whether the proportion of dark heartwood is higher in northern stands compared to more southern ones. We collected samples from 302 sugar maple stems at 16 sites within two bioclimatic domains of Quebec, Canada, i.e. the balsam fir–yellow birch domain (representing the northern limit of the sugar maple range) and the sugar maple–yellow birch domain (representing a more southern location within the range). Our results indicate a positive relationship between dark heartwood proportions and stem age, as well as with the amplitude of the maximum growth reduction throughout the tree’s lifespan and the length of the longest suppression period. We also observed significantly higher dark heartwood proportion for a given tree age in northern stands. The results suggest that silvicultural systems aiming to release suppressed crop trees through group selection using a cut-to-length system could favour the development of high quality timber.

Comparison of bias correction methods to regional climate model simulations for climate change projection in Muger Subbasin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the best performed bias correction methods to simulate the regional climate models for future climate change projections in Muger Subbasin. Delta change methods perform very well with a coefficient of correlation of 0.99 and a percent of bias –3. When we compare its corrected simulation result with observed data, the delta change method seems to have with no biases for maximum temperature, but increases by 1.67 °C from the mean for minimum temperature of 0.39 and 38.41 mm for monthly and annual precipitation, respectively. Delta change methods underestimate the model result for both temperature and precipitation. Linear scaling and variance scaling methods overestimate the maximum temperature of the simulation by 0.002 and 0.004 °C from the mean of the observed data, but it underestimates 1.59 and 1.56 °C the minimum temperature, respectively. The long-term temperature projection values (2060–2090) are higher than the near-term projections (2030–2060) for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Similarly, the change in annual precipitation for the long-term is higher than the near-term projections. As a conclusion, the results draw attention to the fact that bias-adjusted regional climate models data are crucial for the provision of local climate change impact studies in the Muger Subbasin.

Long-term climate and hydrologic regimes shape stream invertebrate community responses to a hurricane disturbance.

Disturbances can produce a spectrum of short- and long-term ecological consequences that depend on complex interactions of the characteristics of the event, antecedent environmental conditions, and the intrinsic properties of resistance and resilience of the affected biological system. We used Hurricane Harvey's impact on coastal rivers of Texas to examine the roles of storm-related changes in hydrology and long-term precipitation regime on the response of stream invertebrate communities to hurricane disturbance. We detected declines in richness, diversity and total abundance following the storm, but responses were strongly tied to direct and indirect effects of long-term aridity and short-term changes in stream hydrology. The amount of rainfall a site received drove both flood duration and flood magnitude across sites, but lower annual rainfall amounts (i.e. aridity) increased flood magnitude and decreased flood duration. Across all sites, flood duration was positively related to the time it took for invertebrate communities to return to a long-term baseline and flood magnitude drove larger invertebrate community responses (i.e. changes in diversity and total abundance). However, invertebrate response per unit flood magnitude was lower in sub-humid sites, potentially because of differences in refuge availability or ecological-evolutionary interactions. Interestingly, sub-humid streams had temporary large peaks in invertebrate total abundance and diversity following recovery period that may be indicative of the larger organic matter pulses expected in these systems because of their comparatively well-developed riparian vegetation. Our findings show that hydrology and long-term precipitation regime predictably affected invertebrate community responses and, thus, our work underscores the important influence of local climate to ecosystem sensitivity to disturbances.

Differences in LCZ composition according to urban planning and impacts on urban thermal environment

As a climate-aware and standardized classification scheme, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) can be a research framework for analysis of effects of urban development on urban forms and Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon in relation to urban planning. In this study, two new towns built with different urban planning in South Korea are selected as the study areas. In respect of the growing popularity of deep learning and advancements deep learning-based LCZ classification, we build a deep convolutional neural network architecture using a modified SE-ResNext50 backbone. As input data, we designed six schemes using different combinations of Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI imagery and thermal band from Landsat 9 is used for SUHI magnitude estimation and heat vulnerability. In addition, robust and quantitative data sampling using building surface fraction data and building height data was performed. The results indicate that combining SAR and multispectral data could increase LCZ classification accuracy and outline the capacity of polarimetric decomposition components. In addition, it was suggested that urban planning causes differences in the LCZ distribution of each new town, resulting in differences in SUHI magnitude and heat vulnerability. The research findings can help guide future urban development by considering the urban form and thermal environment according to the LCZ composition within the new plannedcity.

Central Asia's desertification challenge: Recent trends and drives explored with google earth engine

Achieving land degradation neutrality (LDN) is considered critical to achieving sustainable development goals. However, further research and an improved large-scale desertification assessment framework are needed. We constructed a comprehensive land desertification status index (LDSI) to assess desertification and its driving mechanisms in Central Asia from 2001 to 2020. Our spatial distance models and principal component analysis were verified by combined field data. The results indicate that desertification levels in Central Asia fluctuated, decreasing from south to north and increasing from west to east. The extent of increased desertification (45.75%) and recovery (45.65%) were nearly equivalent. According to optimal parameters-based geographical detectors, climate factors are the main contributors to desertification, the most significant being reference evapotranspiration. We also found regional differences in the driving mechanisms of desertification. Based on Theil–Sen, Mann–Kendall, and Hurst tests, future desertification intensification of 9.69% is possible, with hotspots mainly in northwestern Central Asia, while 9.73% restoration may occur in other areas. The findings have relevance for achieving LDN. Policymakers should monitor the impact of global climate change and develop recovery measures based on comprehensive consideration of local climate, soil, and terrain conditions.

Examining climate trends and patterns and their implications for agricultural productivity in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania

Climate variability impacts various global challenges, including food security, biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and human well-being. However, climate patterns and trends and community perceptions at spatially-explicit levels have been minimally addressed. The spatial and temporal trends of climate conditions in Bagamoyo District in Tanzania were examined using historical (1983–2010) and projected (2022–2050) meteorological and climate model data, respectively. Community knowledge and experiences of past climate occurrences were included. The implications of projected climate change for regional agricultural production and food security were assessed. The study drew on empirical data obtained from household surveys conducted in seven villages in the district. Effectively, 309 households were randomly sampled across the villages to provide the perception of climate change and associated impacts on agriculture and livelihoods. Both qualitative and quantitative statistical techniques were employed to analyse the incidence, frequency, and intensity of regional extreme climate events. The meteorological and climate modelling data were subjected to trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests, and the present and projected spatial and temporal trends of climatic variables in the region were analysed. The household-based questionnaire results were combined with climate modelling and the literature to determine the implications of climate change for regional agricultural production and food security. The results revealed that local knowledge and climate model data strongly concur on regional climate changes. Furthermore, the region is highly likely to experience increased warming and decreased precipitation at varying magnitudes. The shifts in climate trends and patterns are anticipated to greatly impact agricultural production, affecting livelihoods and hampering food security efforts. Recommendations include adopting context-specific measures and tailored strategies for enhancing resilience throughout the entire region.

A Review on the Heat-Source Tower Heat Pump Systems in China

Based on air-, water-, and ground-source heat pump systems, a novel type of heat pump system, named the heat-source tower heat pump system (HSTHPS), has recently been developed in the southern area of China. The HSTHPS overcomes the evaporator frosting problems of the air-source heat pump system (ASHPS) when the ambient temperature is lower, and it avoids the geological condition constraints of the water- and ground-source heat pump systems. However, studies on the HSTHPS are insufficient, thereby limiting its development and applications. Thus, the present review provides a detailed literature review on the advancements of HSTHPSs in China, including the HSTHPS operation principle, heat-source tower (HST) structure, heat and mass transfer characteristics, HSTHPS performance, antifreeze solution use, and antifreeze solution regeneration. Studies on the heat and mass transfer characteristics of HSTs are sufficient for guiding the application. Regarding open systems, the solution drifting to the air needs to resolved, and future studies need to focus on structure optimization for heat exchangers in closed systems. Moreover, advanced defrosting technology should be applied to closed-type HSTs, and a suitable operation strategy for HSTHPSs should be developed. Future priorities should involve integrating HSTHPSs with additional renewable energy in order to achieve continuous, stable, and efficient heating in winter based on the characteristics of local climate and renewable energy.

Urban green open space in developing countries: Indonesia regulations, problems and alternative solutions

PurposeThis paper aims to work toward a new approach in providing green open spaces in the middle of urban land in Indonesia that has been densely built up and on it has attached land rights. An approach is needed through a specific spatial policy that contains zoning regulations for the provision of public green open spaces on top of residential houses built on the green zoning plans.Design/methodology/approachThis approach considers an interconnected ecological holistic approach, as previously existing regulations have not normatively identified the green open space as an ecological landscape consisting of blue open spaces and several objects that function as green open spaces.FindingsIndonesia in terms of green open space for local climate instrument is still identified as one of the three lowest countries in Southeast Asia in the number of green open space areas. We found that the regulating process of development rights and property rights, in the construction of Indonesian law, still requires many alternative efforts to this day in providing urban green open spaces. The delivery of desired outcomes depends on the alternative policy as a form of legal politics in compensating planning and community interests through developing green open spaces in an ecoregion approach.Originality/valueThis writing was shaped by the understandings of the author with regards to the development of urban green open space regulating issues in Indonesia as one of the emerging country group in Asia and Jakarta as the second-most populous urban area in the world. This paper aims to work toward providing green urban open spaces in Indonesia that has been densely built up and on it has attached land rights, through a specific spatial policy that contains zoning regulations for the provision of public green open spaces on top of residential houses built on the green zoning plans.

The Effect of Green Stormwater Infrastructures on Urban-Tier Human Thermal Comfort—A Case Study in High-Density Urban Blocks

Green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) is a key approach to greening and cooling high-density blocks. Previous studies have focused on the impact of a single GSI on thermal comfort on sunny days, ignoring rainwater’s role and GSI combinations. Therefore, based on measured data of a real urban area in Nanjing, China, this study utilized 45 single-GSI and combination simulation scenarios, as well as three local climate zone (LCZ) baseline scenarios to compare and analyze three high-density blocks within the city. Among the 32 simulations specifically conducted in LCZ1 and LCZ2, 2 of them were dedicated to baseline scenario simulations, whereas the remaining 30 simulations were evenly distributed across LCZ1 and LCZ2, with 15 simulations allocated to each zone. The physiological equivalent temperature (PET) was calculated using the ENVI-met specification to evaluate outdoor thermal comfort. The objective of this research was to determine the optimal GSI combinations for different LCZs, their impact on pedestrian thermal comfort, GSI response to rainwater, and the effect of GSI on pedestrian recreation areas. Results showed that GSI combinations are crucial for improving thermal comfort in compact high-rise and mid-rise areas, while a single GSI suffices in low-rise areas. In extreme heat, rainfall is vital for GSI’s effectiveness, and complex GSI can extend the thermal comfort improvement time following rainfall by more than 1 h. Adding shading and trees to GSI combinations maximizes thermal comfort in potential crowd activity areas, achieving up to 54.23% improvement. Future GSI construction in high-density blocks should focus on different combinations of GSI based on different LCZs, offering insights for GSI planning in Southeast Asia.

A Comprehensive Examination of the Medvezhiy Glacier’s Surges in West Pamir (1968–2023)

The Vanj River Basin contains a dynamic glacier, the Medvezhiy glacier, which occasionally poses a danger to local residents due to its surging, flooding, and frequent blockages of the Abdukahor River, leading to intense glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). This study offers a new perspective on the quantitative assessment of glacier surface velocities and associated lake changes during six surges from 1968 to 2023 by using time-series imagery (Corona, Hexagon, Landsat), SRTM elevation maps, ITS_LIVE, unmanned aerial vehicles, local climate, and glacier surface elevation changes. Six turbulent periods (1968, 1973, 1977, 1989–1990, 2001, and 2011) were investigated, each lasting three years within a 10–11-year cycle. During inactive phases, a reduction in the thickness of the glacier tongue in the ablation zone occurred. During a surge in 2011, the flow accelerated, creating an ice dam and conditions for GLOF. Using these datasets, we reconstructed the process of the Medvezhiy glacier surge with high detail and identified a clear signal of uplift in the surface above the lower glacier tongue as well as a uniform increase in velocities associated with the onset of the surge. The increased activity of the Medvezhiy glacier and seasonal fluctuations in surface runoff are closely linked to climatic factors throughout the surge phase, and recent UAV observations indicate the absence of GLOFs in the glacier’s channel. Comprehending the processes of glacier movements and related changes at a regional level is crucial for implementing more proactive measures and identifying appropriate strategies for mitigation.

Assessment and Monitoring of Local Climate Regulation in Cities by Green Infrastructure—A National Ecosystem Service Indicator for Germany

In densely built-up urban areas, green spaces such as gardens, parks, forests and water bodies can greatly enhance the quality of life for local residents and promote human health. These areas mitigate heat stress and the urban heat island effect to create a balanced local climate. To quantify the ecosystem service of “urban climate regulation” provided by urban green infrastructure, we developed a national indicator for specific measurement and monitoring. This indicator captures both the supply of climate-regulating services by urban green spaces and the demand for this service from the residential population. Using nationwide geodata, a cooling capacity value can be calculated that reflects the tree canopy, soil cover, sizes of green area and site characteristics. This cooling capacity value is then related to the affected residential population in the neighbourhood. Our analysis indicates that 76% of the population in the 165 case cities in Germany enjoy high or very high cooling capacities in their immediate living environment. In 37 cities, over 85% of the population benefits from good or very good cooling capacity provided by green space. The proposed indicator enables a comparison of the cooling service of urban green infrastructure and offers a sound basis for spatial planning and decision-making in urban areas.

Feasibility of Urban-Based Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Urban Centers of Southwest Ethiopia: From Local Climate Action Perspective

This study identified the practices of adaptation strategies to climate change in Jimma, Bedelle, Bonga, and Sokorru urban centers using a survey of 384 households, 55 key informant interviews, 4 focus group discussions, and field observations. A cross-sectional study design was employed from 2019 to 2021. The adaptive capacity of municipalities to reduce climate extreme events was rated as poor by the majority (51%), mostly reactive measures (76%). The climate hazards identified in four urban centers were riverine and flash floods, urban heat waves, landslides, and windstorms. The urban households practiced lifestyle modification, reduce paved surfaces, the use of air conditioner, planting trees, and multiple windows. The adaptation strategies practiced by municipalities include the relocation of prone areas, the support of basic amenities, the construction of protection walls, diversion ditches, the clearance of waterways and rivers, greenery, and park development. The adaptation actions were constrained by a lack of awareness, commitment, cooperation and coordination, adaptive capacity, and participation. Gray/physical infrastructures (costly but important) as adaptation actions were hampered by the low municipal capacity. We recommend that urban authorities should incorporate climate change adaptation strategies into urban planning and development proactively to ensure future resilient climate smart urban centers of southwest Ethiopia.

Applicability of Vegetation to Reduce Traffic-Borne PM2.5 Concentration in Roadside User Zones in Hot Arid Climates: The Case of Central Doha, Qatar

The ‘Beautification of Roads and Parks in Qatar’ is an urban development project that intends to provide space for exercising in roadside greenery in central Doha due to a lack of accessible open spaces. Considering the potential health risks associated with inhaling traffic-borne PM2.5, this study investigated the efficacy of four common road vegetation scenarios in reducing traffic-borne PM2.5 concentration in roadside user zones using ENVI-met. It examined Spearman’s rank correlation between air temperature, relative humidity, traffic emission rate, and PM2.5 concentration in roadside user zones. Based on the results, (1) hedgerows lower PM2.5 concentrations in roadside user zones, while trees significantly increase the concentration. (2) There is a strong association between air temperature and relative humidity and the PM2.5 concentration. The PM2.5 concentration decreases as air temperature increases but it increases as relative humidity increases. (3) There is a moderately negative association between the traffic emission rate and the PM2.5 concentration; however, this association is not found to be statistically significant. The ENVI-met simulation showed a slight overestimation of PM2.5 concentration compared to the wind tunnel simulation. These findings provide insight into planning road vegetation to reduce traffic-borne PM2.5 in roadside user zones in the local hot arid climate.

Unlocking carbon finance: Empowering energy communities for mutual benefit

This study investigates the potential of utilizing carbon credits to finance innovative local energy communities in Europe, addressing a significant gap in academic literature. Despite the growing interest in voluntary carbon credits as a mechanism for offsetting carbon emissions, there is limited evidence connecting local energy systems to voluntary carbon markets. The study explores whether carbon credits could serve as a practical tool for funding the development of energy communities, contributing to sustainable energy transitions and climate mitigation strategies. The research employs a comprehensive methodology to assess the quality of carbon credit projects and examines ten innovative energy community projects in Europe. Key findings reveal there is potential for using carbon credits to finance energy community initiatives. However, challenges persist, particularly regarding financing barriers and the volatile nature of carbon markets. The study underscores the importance of policy support in establishing clear standards for voluntary markets and promoting the accessibility of carbon offsets. Furthermore, it suggests potential solutions such as pre-financing agreements and the utilization of carbon market derivatives to enhance project viability. Overall, the study offers insights into the intersection between voluntary carbon markets and local energy initiatives, providing a foundation for further research and policy development in the field of local sustainable development and climate change mitigation.

Status of Livability in Indonesian Affordable Housing

Indonesia is experiencing population growth, as well as urbanization, thus increasing the needs of housing. As a result, land prices are soaring, and the housing supply cannot meet the demand. The most recent measure to overcome housing problems is the One Million House Program, which aims to provide more than a million homes annually, with the majority of them being simple housing. The main characteristics of simple housing are limited space, limited facilities, and the use of basic materials. Regulation stated that any housing must satisfy the requirement of livable housing, which means the fulfilment of safety, health, and living-area requirements. This paper looks at affordability, livability, and sustainability criteria based on government regulation. It is found that the performance of housing cannot satisfy some of the requirements. The problems come from either inherently limited housing design, occupant requirements, or local climates. The existing research only focuses on one of three factors. Intertwined relationships between the three factors make an integrated approach necessary. A solution based on integrated performance modeling of the criteria is proposed.