Local Authority Districts Research Articles

Spending reflects not only who we are but also who we are around: The joint effects of individual and geographic personality on consumption.

Interactionist theories are considered to have resolved the classic person-situation debate by demonstrating that human behavior is most accurately described as a function of both personal characteristics as well as environmental cues. According to these theories, personality traits form part of the personal characteristics that drive behavior. We suggest that psychological theory stands to gain from also considering personality traits as an important environmental characteristic that shapes sociocultural norms and institutions, and, in turn, behavior. Building on research in geographical psychology, we support this proposition by presenting evidence on the relationship of individual and regional personality with spending behavior. Analyzing the spending records of 111,336 participants (31,915,942 unique transactions) across 374 Local Authority Districts (LAD) in the United Kingdom, we first show that geographic regions with higher aggregate scores on a given personality trait collectively spend more money on categories associated with that trait. Shifting the focus to individual level spending as our behavioral outcome (N = 1,716), we further demonstrate that regional personality of a participant's home LAD predicts individual spending above and beyond individual personality. That is, a person's spending reflects both their own personality traits as well as the personality traits of the people around them. We use conditional random forest predictions to highlight the robustness of these findings in the presence of a comprehensive set of individual and regional control variables. Taken together, our findings empirically support the proposition that spending behaviors reflect personality traits as both personal and environmental characteristics. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Surplus to the city: Austerity urbanism, displacement and ‘letting die’

Urban scholars have traditionally associated displacement in cities of the global North with gentrification, generally understood as a class-based process of neighbourhood change. This article expands this scalar focus and adopts the larger scale of the local authority district (in this case the London borough) as its epistemological starting point to study the displacement of homeless people by the local state. Participatory action research was undertaken with housing campaigners in the East London borough of Newham to explore who is being displaced, their experiences of displacement and the impacts of displacement on their lives. Empirically, the article argues that displacement in this case is a product of national welfare state restructuring – or ‘austerity urbanism’ – implemented through a localised regime of ‘welfare chauvinism’ in which some groups are framed as economically unproductive and therefore undeserving of access to social housing. Displacement has the effect of reinforcing the surplus status of these groups by separating them from employment, education and care networks and eroding their physical and mental health. The article draws on research on the biopolitics of surplus populations in the global South to develop an original theorisation of the relationship between welfare state restructuring and displacement. This theorisation reveals that displacement is the spatial expression of a biopolitical shift away from the logic of ‘making live’ associated with the post-war welfare state towards a logic of ‘letting die’ more traditionally associated with postcolonial contexts.

Estimation and inference in heterogeneous spatial panels with a multifactor error structure

We develop a unifying econometric framework for the analysis of heterogeneous panel data models that can account for both spatial dependence and common factors. To tackle the challenging issues of endogeneity due to the spatial lagged term and the correlation between the regressors and factors, we propose the CCEX-IV estimation procedure that approximates factors by the cross-section averages of regressors and deals with the spatial endogeneity using the internal instrumental variables. We develop the individual and Mean Group estimators, and establish their consistency and asymptotic normality. By contrast, the Pooled estimator is shown to be inconsistent in the presence of parameter heterogeneity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is quite satisfactory. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach with an application to the house price growth for Local Authority Districts in the UK over 1997Q1–2016Q4.

The interaction of ethnicity and deprivation on COVID-19 mortality risk: a retrospective ecological study

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) populations are at an increased risk of developing COVID-19 and consequentially more severe outcomes compared to White populations. The aim of this study was to quantify how much of the disproportionate disease burden can be attributed to ethnicity and deprivation as well as its interaction. An ecological study was conducted using data derived from the Office for National Statistics data at a Local Authority District (LAD) level in England between 1st March and 17th April 2020. The primary analysis examined how age adjusted COVID-19 mortality depends on ethnicity, deprivation, and the interaction between the two using linear regression. The secondary analysis using spatial regression methods allowed for the quantification of the extent of LAD spillover effect of COVID-19 mortality. We find that in LADs with the highest deprivation quartile, where there is a 1 percentage point increase in “Black-African (regression coefficient 2.86; 95% CI 1.08–4.64)”, “Black-Caribbean (9.66: 95% CI 5.25–14.06)” and “Bangladeshi (1.95: 95% CI 1.14–2.76)” communities, there is a significantly higher age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality compared to respective control populations. In addition, the spatial regression results indicated positive significant correlation between the age-adjusted mortality in one LAD and the age-adjusted mortality in a neighbouring LAD, suggesting a spillover effect. Our results suggest targeted public health measures to support those who are deprived and belong to BAME communities as well as to encourage restricted movement between different localities to limit disease propagation.

Corona and coffee on your commute: a spatial analysis of COVID-19 mortality and commuting flows in England in 2020.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic forced governments to implement lockdown policies to curb the spread of the disease. These policies explicitly encouraged homeworking, hence reducing the number of commuters with the implicit assumption that restricting peoples’ movement reduces risk of infection for travellers and other people in their areas of residence and work. Yet, the spatial interrelation of different areas has been rarely addressed both in the public discourse and in early accounts of the various consequences of COVID-19.MethodsOur study proposes a spatial analysis of the association between commuting flows and COVID-19 mortality in England between March and June 2020, using a range of publicly available area-level data. To account for spatial correlation, we used a structural mobility gravity model to analyze commuting flows between Local Authority Districts. By accounting for these spatial dependencies, we temper concerns of bias and inefficiency affecting simple linear estimates. Additionally, we disentangle the direct and indirect (from other areas) influence of commuting on COVID-19 mortality.ResultsThe results of our spatial regression models suggest that higher commuting flows—in general and particularly by public transport—are associated with higher COVID-19 mortality. Our results are consistent with a reduction in COVID-related mortality after the introduction of a national lockdown in March. The spatial-lag term is statistically significant, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial dependencies.ConclusionWe suggest that considering spatial interactions through commuting or travel motivations may offer interesting perspectives on the trade-off between health and economic activity during lockdowns.

The persistent consequences of adverse shocks: how the 1970s shaped UK regional inequality

Abstract The economic shocks experienced by the UK economy in the 1970s brought major changes in the spatial distribution of employment rates in the UK. This paper traces the long-run implications of these changes, suggesting that they were highly persistent and to a large extent shape current UK regional disparities. Most of the Local Authority Districts that experienced large negative shocks in the 1970s had high deprivation rates in 2015, and they constitute two-thirds of all districts with the highest deprivation rates. We conclude that neither economic adjustment processes nor policy measures have acted to reverse the effect of negative shocks incurred nearly half a century ago.

Association of Race/Ethnicity and Social Disadvantage With Autism Prevalence in 7 Million School Children in England

The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has been reported to be between 1% and 2% of the population, with little research in Black, Asian, and other racial/ethnic minority groups. Accurate estimates of ASD prevalence are vital to planning diagnostic, educational, health, and social care services and may detect possible access barriers to diagnostic pathways and services and inequalities based on social determinants of health. To evaluate whether socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with ASD prevalence and the likelihood of accessing ASD services in racial/ethnic minority and disadvantaged groups in England. This case-control prevalence cohort study used the Spring School Census 2017 from the Pupil Level Annual Schools Census of the National Pupil Database, which is a total population sample that includes all English children, adolescents, and young adults aged 2 to 21 years in state-funded education. Data were collected on January 17, 2017, and analyzed from August 2, 2018, to January 28, 2020. Age and sex were treated as a priori confounders while assessing correlates of ASD status according to (1) race/ethnicity, (2) social disadvantage, (3) first language spoken, (4) Education, Health and Care Plan or ASD Special Educational Needs and Disability support status, and (5) mediation analysis to assess how social disadvantage and language might affect ASD status. Sex- and age-standardized ASD prevalence by race/ethnicity and 326 English local authority districts in pupils aged 5 to 19 years. The final population sample consisted of 7 047 238 pupils (50.99% male; mean [SD] age, 10.18 [3.47] years) and included 119 821 pupils with ASD, of whom 21 660 also had learning difficulties (18.08%). The standardized prevalence of ASD was 1.76% (95% CI, 1.75%-1.77%), with male pupils showing a prevalence of 2.81% (95% CI, 2.79%-2.83%) and female pupils a prevalence of 0.65% (95% CI, 0.64%-0.66%), for a male-to-female ratio (MFR) of 4.32:1. Standardized prevalence was highest in Black pupils (2.11% [95% CI, 2.06%-2.16%]; MFR, 4.68:1) and lowest in Roma/Irish Travelers (0.85% [95% CI, 0.67%-1.03%]; MFR, 2.84:1). Pupils with ASD were more likely to face social disadvantage (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.59-1.63) and to speak English as an additional language (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.63-0.65). The effect of race/ethnicity on ASD status was mediated mostly through social disadvantage, with Black pupils having the largest effect (standardized mediation coefficient, 0.018; P < .001) and 12.41% of indirect effects through this way. These findings suggest that significant differences in ASD prevalence exist across racial/ethnic groups and geographic areas and local authority districts, indicating possible differential phenotypic prevalence or differences in detection or referral for racial/ethnic minority groups.

COVID-19 does not stop at open borders: Spatial contagion among local authority districts during England's first wave.

Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district borders in England as a function of pre-crisis commute to work streams between districts. Crucially, the strength of this spatial contagion depends on the phase of the epidemic. In the first pre-lockdown phase, the spread of the virus across district borders is high. During the lockdown period, the cross-border spread of new infections slows down significantly. Spatial contagion increases again after the lockdown is eased but not statistically significantly so.

A Dataset of Workforce Job Counts for British Local Authority Districts, 1981-2018

This paper presents workforce job counts for British local authority districts between the years 1981 and 2018. The estimates are produced by adjusting local authority job counts drawn from the Census of Employment, Annual Employment Survey, Annual Business Inquiry, and Business Register and Employment Survey to match regional job counts drawn from the Workforce Jobs dataset. The result is a measure of sub-regional workforce jobs which is consistent with publicly available national statistics, and can be motivated as a maximum entropy estimator. To illustrate the use of the dataset, the employment effects of European Union Objective 1 funding are examined using a synthetic control method.

Urbanization and Vulnerability to Heat-Mortality: Different Roles of Urbanization between Urban and Rural Districts in South Korea; A Nationwide Time-series Study.

Background/Aim: Although urbanization has been an important topic in heat vulnerability studies, the complex role of urbanization, which can be different in urban and rural regions, has rarely been studied. We investigated the disparate roles of urbanization between urban and rural areas. Methods: We collected nationwide daily data for all 229 local authority districts in South Korea during 2011-2017. The districts were classified into urban (147 districts) and rural (82 districts) areas, based on the administrative districts. We applied three demographic variables (percentage of the urban population, population number, and population density) as urbanization indicators and also used medical-social environment indices to explain the role of urbanization. Results: There was no evident difference in the heat-mortality risk between urban and rural areas, and the role of urbanization was different in urban and rural areas; the higher urbanization level was associated with lower heat-mortality risk in rural areas, however, with lower heat-mortality risk in urban areas (i.e. the U-shaped relationship). The number of beds in hospital per person was associated with this U-shaped relationship, and the linkage was more evident in urban areas than in rural areas, and in the highest urbanized areas within urban areas. Meanwhile, the lower quality of health-related life and lower social gatherings were related to higher heat-mortality risk in rural areas. Conclusions: We found the urbanization level was linked in the opposite direction to the heat vulnerability in urban and rural areas, and the lower accessibility to hospital beds observed in rural and the highest urbanized areas was associated with higher heat vulnerability. Furthermore, regional indicators related to heat vulnerability were also heterogeneous between urban and rural areas. These results can contribute to understanding the complex role of urbanization in heat vulnerability and to establish evidence-based region-specific policies.

Understanding the decline in under-18 conception rates throughout England's local authorities between 1998 and 2017.

We consider England's two-decade teenage conception decline in the context of societal changes: rising educational aspirations; growing second- and third-generation teenage ethnic minority populations; increased deprivation associated with economic recession and post-2008 Government austerity; and changing housing availability. Using England's Local Authority Districts (LAD) 1998-2017, we explore the role of area characteristics in explaining spatial differences in under-18 conception rates and how changing characteristics may explain temporal changes. Urban/rural distinctions in teenage conceptions are largely minimised after considering LAD characteristics. Area characteristics continue to partly explain teenage conception rates but are better at explaining area differences than variation over time.

Infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by geographical units: A model-based estimation from mortality data.

This study estimates cumulative infection rates from Covid-19 in Great Britain by local authority districts (LADs) and council areas (CAs) and investigates spatial patterns in infection rates. We propose a model-based approach to calculate cumulative infection rates from data on observed and expected deaths from Covid-19. Our analysis of mortality data shows that 7% of people in Great Britain were infected by Covid-19 by the last third of June 2020. It is unlikely that the infection rate was lower than 4% or higher than 15%. Secondly, England had higher infection rates than Scotland and especially Wales, although the differences between countries were not large. Thirdly, we observed a substantial variation in virus infection rates in Great Britain by geographical units. Estimated infection rates were highest in the capital city of London where between 11 and 12% of the population might have been infected and also in other major urban regions, while the lowest were in small towns and rural areas. Finally, spatial regression analysis showed that the virus infection rates increased with the increasing population density of the area and the level of deprivation. The results suggest that people from lower socioeconomic groups in urban areas (including those with minority backgrounds) were most affected by the spread of coronavirus from March to June.

Sociodemographic and spatial disaggregation of e-commerce channel use in the grocery market in Great Britain

The UK Grocery e-commerce industry is amongst the most developed in the world with an estimated value of £11.4Billion in 2018. Assisted by technological developments, the market has experienced dramatic growth over the past two decades. Grocery retailers have invested in online infrastructure and home delivery networks. As a result, consumers have a range of options which enable them to shop interchangeably between in-store and online channels. The proliferation of new grocery shopping channels such as home delivery or ‘click and collect’ (collect in store or collection from a non-store collection point), coupled with changing consumer behaviour, provides new challenges for retailers in understanding consumer dynamics in this market. This paper explores consumer behaviour and preferences for e-commerce in the grocery retail industry in Great Britain (GB) using a survey of 19,033 respondents from the major market research company YouGov. Respondents were asked a range of questions around uptake and channel usage in the grocery e-commerce sector. The survey presents a novel opportunity to analyse self-reported consumer behaviour in GB, with survey responses attached to key sociodemographic and locational information. We find that sociodemographics are an important driver of groceries e-commerce usage and channel choice, with females, more affluent households and those in the 25–44 age group most likely to use home delivery, corroborating previous research. Contrasting previous research, we also find statistically significant evidence of relatively high values of home delivery use among over-55s. Whilst overall usage is lower, we find a particular affinity to collection facilities among males and skilled manual workers. Spatially, we find evidence of both the innovation-diffusion theory and the efficiency theory at both a national and local authority district level, using a brief case study of Yorkshire and the Humber. These insights can support grocery retailers as they further develop costly localised infrastructure to support e-commerce. It could also assist retailers in understanding the localised drivers of channel choice as they seek to shift demand from home delivery (with high costs faced by the retailer in relation to the ‘last mile’) to click and collect (in which the customer faces the costs associated with the last mile).

Childhood type 1 diabetes: an environment-wide association study across England

Aims/hypothesisType 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease affecting ~400,000 people across the UK. It is likely that environmental factors trigger the disease process in genetically susceptible individuals. We assessed the associations between a wide range of environmental factors and childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in England, using an agnostic, ecological environment-wide association study (EnWAS) approach, to generate hypotheses about environmental triggers.MethodsWe undertook analyses at the local authority district (LAD) level using a national hospital episode statistics-based incident type 1 diabetes dataset comprising 13,948 individuals with diabetes aged 0–9 years over the period April 2000 to March 2011. We compiled LAD level estimates for a range of potential demographic and environmental risk factors including meteorological, land use and environmental pollution variables. The associations between type 1 diabetes incidence and risk factors were assessed via Poisson regression, disease mapping and ecological regression.ResultsCase counts by LAD varied from 1 to 236 (median 33, interquartile range 24–46). Overall type 1 diabetes incidence was 21.2 (95% CI 20.9, 21.6) per 100,000 individuals. The EnWAS and disease mapping indicated that 15 out of 53 demographic and environmental risk factors were significantly associated with diabetes incidence, after adjusting for multiple testing. These included air pollutants (particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide; all inversely associated), as well as lead in soil, radon, outdoor light at night, overcrowding, population density and ethnicity. Disease mapping revealed spatial heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes risk. The ecological regression found an association between type 1 diabetes and the living environment domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (RR 0.995; 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.991, 0.998) and radon potential class (RR 1.044; 95% CrI 1.015, 1.074).Conclusions/interpretationOur analysis identifies a range of demographic and environmental factors associated with type 1 diabetes in children in England.

Cost-effectiveness of offering an area-level financial incentive on breast feeding: a within-cluster randomised controlled trial analysis

ObjectiveTo provide the first estimate of the cost-effectiveness of financial incentive for breastfeeding intervention compared with usual care.DesignWithin-cluster (‘ward’-level) randomised controlled trial cost-effectiveness analysis (trial registration number ISRCTN44898617).SettingFive local authority...

The Interaction of Ethnicity and Deprivation on COVID-19 Mortality Risk: A Retrospective Ecological Study

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) populations are at an increased risk of developing COVID-19 and consequentially more severe outcomes compared to White populations. The aim of this study was to quantify how much of the disproportionate disease burden can be attributed to deprivation. An ecological study was conducted using data derived from the Office for National Statistics data at a Local Authority District (LAD) level in England between 1st March-17th April 2020. The primary analysis was to examine how age adjusted COVID-19 mortality depends on the interaction between deprivation and ethnicity using linear regression. The secondary analysis using spatial regression methods allowed for the quantification of the extent of LAD spillover effect of COVID-19 mortality. We find that in LADs with the highest deprivation quartile, where there is a 1% increase in “Black-African (regression coefficient 2.86; 95% CI 1.08 – 4.64)”, “Black-Caribbean (9.66: 95% CI 5.25 – 14.06)” and “Bangladeshi (1.95: 95% CI 1.14 – 2.76)” communities there is a significantly higher age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality compared to respective control populations. In addition, the spatial regression results indicated positive significant correlation between the age-adjusted mortality in one LAD and the age-adjusted mortality in a neighbouring LAD. This suggests that deprivation and its interaction with ethnicity play an important role in explaining COVID-19 mortality. The presence of spatial effects and spillover suggest family structures and social networks play an important role. Social interactions between people across neighbouring regions can also spread the disease.

Well-being and unemployment during the Great Recession: an empirical analysis across UK local authority districts

ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and psychological well-being before and during the Great Recession across 249 UK local authority districts (LADs). Substantial evidence demonstrates that unemployment has a large negative effect on psychological well-being. However, unique social norms develop in geographical areas with high unemployment rates, which significantly reduce the negative impact of unemployment on well-being. Though the post-2007 Great Recession period was characterized by widespread unemployment, few studies have examined the impact of this crisis on well-being in high- and low-unemployment local areas. The analysis constructs a rich panel data set which follows 15,798 individuals from 1998 to 2014, and applies difference-in-differences fixed-effects and general method of moments estimators. The findings indicate that unemployment had a large negative impact on psychological well-being. However, the magnitude of this effect did not change (or was even slightly lower) during the Great Recession. Furthermore, the unemployment social norm also ceased to have any additional effect on well-being during the Great Recession in high-unemployment LADs, as opposed to the pre-recession period.

Mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain: how much longer will dockyards dominate?

ObjectivesWe aimed to investigate whether there has been a geographic shift in the distribution of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain given the decline of shipbuilding and progressive exposure regulation.MethodsWe calculated...

Childhood Type 1 Diabetes

PDS 71: Exposome, Johan Friso Foyer, Floor 1, August 27, 2019, 4:30 PM - 5:30 PM Background/Aim: Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease affecting ~400,000 people across the UK. Environmental factors likely trigger the disease process in genetically susceptible individuals. We assessed the associations between a wide range of environmental factors and childhood T1D incidence in England, using an agnostic, ecological Environment Wide Association Study (EWAS) approach, to generate hypotheses about environmental triggers. Methods: We undertook analyses at the Local Authority District (LAD) level using a national Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) based incident T1D dataset, comprising 13,948 cases aged 0-9 years over the period April 2000- March 2011. We compiled LAD-level estimates for a range of potential demographic and environmental risk factors including meteorological, land use and environmental pollution variables. The associations between T1D incidence and risk factors were assessed via Poisson regression, disease mapping and ecological regression. Results: Case counts by LAD varied from 1 to 236 (median 33; inter quartile range: 24-46). Overall T1D incidence was 21.2 (95% CI 20.9-21.6) per 100,000 individuals. The EWAS and disease mapping indicated that 15 out of 53 demographic and environmental risk factors were significantly associated with diabetes incidence after adjusting for multiple testing. These included air pollutants (particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide), as well as lead in soil, radon, outdoor light at night, overcrowding, population density and ethnicity. Disease mapping revealed spatial heterogeneity in T1D risk. The ecological regression found a significant association between T1D and the living environment domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (RR 0.995 (95%CI 0.991-0.998)) and radon potential class (RR 1.044 95%CI 1.015-1.074). Conclusions: Our analysis identifies a range of demographic and environmental factors associated with T1D in children in England.

It’s more complicated than that!: Unpacking ‘Left Behind Britain’ and some other spatial tropes following the UK’s 2016 EU referendum

In the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, a number of dominant narratives and spatial imaginaries of ‘Brexit’ have come to the fore including the notion of a revolt of a ‘Left Behind Britain’, and of a generational splintering manifested in different political attitudes. Informed by this context, this paper considers some of these issues at the micro-scale, using voting data from two contiguous local authority districts within the same city region. It presents data from wards that have similar socio-economic conditions and which are highly ranked in the Index of Multiple Deprivation but which voted differently in the referendum. The data reinforce the arguments of those who have claimed that the phenomenon of Brexit is powerfully contextual and that general socio-economic analyses of its causes do not fully explain why some areas and populations voted to leave the EU and others with comparable profiles voted to remain. With poorer regions predicted to be the biggest economic losers of ‘Brexit’, an understanding of such issues is of material consequence and might inform progressive responses to such populist phenomena.