Loan-to-value Research Articles

Macroprudential policy and house prices in an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for South Africa

AbstractThis article examines the interaction of housing‐related macroprudential policies and monetary policy. The study uses housing cycles in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a small open‐economy framework. We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques using South African data covering the period from 2000Q1 to 2018Q4. The results indicate that monetary policy has small effects on house prices. We consider a loan‐to‐value (LTV) tool for macroprudential policy. The results show that a 1% rise in the LTV ratio, a tight macroprudential policy, leads to increasing house prices, with significant effects on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. The effects on CPI inflation suggest that monetary policy is not very effective. Efficient policy frontier analysis indicates that the introduction of macroprudential policy yields an improved effective outcome that lowers output and inflation volatility. The findings suggest monetary policy and macroprudential policy require coordination.

Product differentiation and populistic entry strategies in a mortgage market with Bertrand competition

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the interaction between a profit maximising mortgagor and a newcomer to a mortgage market with Bertrand competition where the newcomer has a populistic entry strategy and undercuts mortgage market rates. The intention of the paper is to relate the populistic entry strategy to mortgage market characteristics and the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer in question.Design/methodology/approachThe paper analyses a mortgage market by combining the behaviour of a profit maximising mortgagor with that of a newcomer to the mortgage market which has a populistic entry strategy and does not maximise profits. The short-run market solution provides comparative statics on the strategic market position of both the established mortgagor and the newcomer to the mortgage market during the entry phase both related to product differentiation and to price mirroring and undercutting of mortgage rates.FindingsThe model finds a mortgage market solution where a lower mortgage rate helps the newcomer gain a customer base. As the newcomer's strategy to mirror prices makes it unable to pass-through funding cost to its mortgage rate, the strategy is unsustainable over time. The established mortgagor has a strategically beneficial position as the mortgage market rates only relate to its funding cost. Unless the newcomer has a funding cost advantage, the established mortgagor has a higher interest rate margin. Differentiation impacts the newcomers’ interest rate margin positively. If the newcomer lacks a funding cost advantage, there is a critical mirroring rate that ensures it a higher interest rate margin. The higher the newcomers’ own funding cost, the higher is the upper bound for price mirroring, relating market entry to a small undercutting of mortgage rates and a mortgage market with weak competition. The funding cost of the established mortgagor pulls pricing in the opposite direction, allowing for a lower mirroring rate and tougher mortgage market competition during entry.Originality/valueThe paper aims to contribute to the understanding of market equilibrium in the absence of profit maximising behaviour. Framing a mortgage market in terms of a duopoly where a newcomer enters with a populistic entry strategy offering a lower mortgage rate and a mortgage product with a different loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, a novel mortgage market case comes about. The populistic entry strategy produces an augmented reaction curve, crucial for the mortgage market rates.

Loan-to-value policy in a bubble-creation economy

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of macroprudential policy in the form of loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions in a bubble-creation economy. Such policy measures have been used intensively in Asia to deal with credit and property price boom-bust cycles while the effectiveness remains unclear, especially the country-specific cases. We find that the effect on investment and size of bubbles depends on the degree of financial development. Specifically, restrictive LTV policies tend to be more effective in dampening asset-price bubbles in economies that have a high degree of financial depth. High (low) financial depth implies that bubbles originally crowd out (in) investment, so that implementation of LTV policies causes bubbles to decrease (remain unchanged). These might explain some mixed empirical results of LTV policy on dampening asset-price growth.

The pass-through of loan-loss-provisioning on mortgage lending: Evidence from a regulatory change

Macroprudential policy and instruments are at the center of the discussion when (re)thinking about banking regulation. In particular, sectoral macroprudential devices have gained momentum to curb specific credit markets. However, there is scarce evidence on how, and by how much, these policies affect the credit markets they are intended to target. In this paper, we analyze one such regulation. We study how loan-loss-provisioning (LLP) affects the mortgage lending market. We do so by leveraging a policy change in Chile, that raised provisions, coupled with rich administrative data for the census of all real estate transactions, interest rates on mortgage loans, and bank balance sheet data. We find that the LLP regulation lowered the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of granted loans by 2.8% and 9.8% for the mean and median borrowers, respectively. Banks with weaker balance sheets showed more extensive adjustments. We also find that the pass-through of higher expected provisioning cost to lending rates was quantitatively very small, reaching an upper bound of 0.2% at most. We argue that this evidence supports the notion that under imperfect information, banks do not compete only in terms of interest rates, but also in lending standards, and this latter channel can dominate the former.

The impact of the minimum housing scale constraint on life-cycle risky asset and housing investment

While the standard loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) mortgage borrowing constraints are widely studied in the theoretical housing demand literature, the way they interact with the minimum housing scale (MHS) constraint to determine life-cycle choices has received far less attention. We adopt a stochastic partial equilibrium life-cycle model within which consumers choose a portfolio of three assets, subject to standard LTV and LTI constraints, as well as an MHS. We highlight features of possible solutions involving different binding constraints each period. Moreover, we provide closed-form solutions and simulated life time paths for different realisations of uncertainty with Stone-Geary preferences. Our simulation results show that the MHS constraint generates an increasing profile of risky asset share profile in the presence of mortgage constraints, and imply that the MHS may worsen poor people’s welfare by crowding them out of home ownership for a longer period of their life-time and exacerbate the wealth inequality both in risky asset and housing wealth in the long run.

Risky Mortgages and Macroprudential Policy: A Calibrated DSGE Model for Lithuania

Following the financial crisis of 2009 there was an emergence of macroprudential policy tools, as well as a need to model the macroeconomy and the financial sector in a coherent framework. This paper develops and calibrates a small open economy DSGE model for Lithuania to shed some light on the interactions between the macroeconomy and the banking sector, regulated by macroprudential policy. The model features housing market, and endogenous credit risk a la de Walque et al. (2010), whereby the household can default on mortgage repayments, what leads to housing collateral seizure. Foreign-owned banks, that are subject to risk-sensitive macroprudential capital requirements, take into account not only the mortgage default rate but also the cap on loan to value (LTV) ratio when making lending decisions. Using this mechanism, we show that while a more stringent LTV constraint reduced credit demand, it can also lead to an expansion in credit supply via lower credit risk. Therefore, a tightening of LTV requirement should result in only a slight reduction in mortgage lending, coupled with lower interest rate margins. The article compares the impact of the tightening of three macroprudential tools, namely, bank capital requirements, mortgage risk weights and LTV limit. We find that broad-based capital requirements, such as the counter-cyclical capital buffer, are less efficient in leaning against the housing credit cycle, because of a relatively large cost incurred on the firm sector.

Turkish Housing Market Dynamics: An Estimated DSGE Model

In this article, we investigate the underlying driving dynamics behind house price variations in Turkey by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the housing market and collateral constraints are included. The model also analyses the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the housing market by making policy simulations under different loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, which are used as a housing market-specific economic policy tool. The model is extended by including the traditional Taylor rule with house prices for representing monetary policy. Our findings show that house prices in Turkey are largely explained by housing preference shocks. Besides, we find that monetary policy shock plays a small role in determining the variables of the housing market in the short-term period. However, the magnitude of the impact of housing market shocks on the rest of the economy depends on the LTV ratios. The higher the LTV ratio, the higher are the effects of the government’s housing policy instrument for stabilising the housing market on real macroeconomic variables such as consumption and output in Turkey. Finally, our findings show that the fluctuations in house prices have not played a substantial role in the monetary policy reaction function of Turkey. JEL Codes: E32, E52, E44, E51, R31

The impact of loan to value to property credit growth sustainability in Indonesia

After the 2008 global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage in the United States, financial services authorities in various countries increasingly realized that surveillance and regulation of financial institutions were not enough only through micro-prudential approach, which intended to maintain individual financial institutions, but required macro-prudential surveillance and regulation in maintaining financial system stability. The macroprudential policy aims to limit systemic risks occurring in financial distress conditions that lead to broader economic losses. One of the macro-prudential policy instruments applied by the financial services authorities in various countries, including Indonesia, is the Loan-to-Value ratio limitation. This countercyclical policy is intended to control the rate of growth in property credit. This paper discusses the effects of limiting the Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio by Bank Indonesia on the growth of bank property credit in Indonesia. Using ordinary least squares, the results of this study conclude that adopting a tightening LTV policy when economic growth high has a significant influence in holding back the pace of five months of property credit growth after the policy was issued. While the LTV policy’s implementation, which is loosening when economic growth is slowing down, has no significant effect in driving the pace of property credit growth.

The Lowdown on Low-Down-Payment Mortgages: Is It Safe?

Low down payment mortgages were prevalent before the financial crisis, slowed down during the financial crisis, but have reemerged since the financial crisis. The Federal Housing Administration has a history of insuring 3% down payment mortgages to help lower- and middle-income households purchase a home, but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently have introduced 3% (and lower) down payment programs. In addition, mortgage innovation in the form of the “wealth building mortgage” now adds the possibility of a 100% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. In this paper, we examine the performance of low down payment (or high LTV) lending. We find that low initial down payment mortgages are significantly more likely to become seriously delinquent (90 days or more) than mortgages with traditional down payments of 20% or more. TOPICS:Fixed income and structured finance, MBS and residential mortgage loans, risk management, credit risk management, legal/regulatory/public policy, financial crises and financial market history Key Findings ▪ This study finds meaningfully accurate estimates of the likelihood of more severe delinquency payment status changes by using individual mortgage loan, borrower, and county-level risk factors as explanatory variables. ▪ Low initial down payment mortgages are significantly more likely to become seriously delinquent (90 days or more) than mortgages with traditional downpayments of 20% or more. ▪ Initial borrower and mortgage characteristics, such as LTV, borrower documentation, or FICO score, are dominant factors in the likelihood of delinquency and default.

The Macroprudential Toolkit: Effectiveness and Interactions

We use a DSGE model with financial frictions, leverage limits on banks, loan to value (LTV) limits and debt‑service ratio (DSR) limits on mortgage borrowing to examine: i) the effects of different macroprudential policies on key macro aggregates; ii) their interaction with each other and with monetary policy; and iii) their effects on the volatility of key macroeconomic variables and on welfare. We find that capital requirements can nullify the effects of financial frictions and reduce the effects of shocks emanating from the financial sector on the real economy. LTV limits, on their own, are not sufficient to constrain household indebtedness in booms, though can be used with capital requirements to keep DSRs under control. Finally, DSR limits lead to a significant decrease in the volatility of lending, consumption and inflation, since they disconnect the housing market from the real economy. Overall, DSR limits are welfare improving relative to any other macroprudential tool.

Multiple Credit Constraints and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Dynamics

I explore the macroeconomic implications of borrowers facing both loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DTI) limits, using an estimated DSGE model. I identify when each constraint dominated over the period 1984-2019: LTV constraints dominate in contractions, when house prices are relatively low – and DTI constraints dominate in expansions, when interest rates are relatively high. I also find that DTI standards were relaxed during the mid-2000s’ boom, and that lower DTI limits or higher interest rates, but not lower LTV limits, would have prevented the boom. Finally, county panel data attest to multiple credit constraints as a source of nonlinear dynamics.

The Impact of Borrower-Based Instruments on Household Vulnerability in Germany

Excessive household borrowing has been identified as an important determinant of financial crises. Borrower-based macroprudential instruments have been proposed as a possible remedy. In Germany, two instruments have been available to macroprudential supervisors since 2017: a cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and an amortization requirement, but none of them has been activated so far. Therefore, this paper presents a simulation tool that allows the impact of activating of borrower-based instruments to be evaluated ex ante. The simulation is based on microdata from the German Panel on Household Finances (PHF) and is at the same time calibrated to match aggregate developments in the residential real estate market. This micro-macro consistent simulation approach can be used to detect vulnerabilities in household balance sheets and perform an ex ante analysis of the activation and calibration of borrower-based macroprudential instruments. An illustrative example of a hypothetical activation shows that the introduction of a cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of new mortgage loans in Germany could improve important indicators of household vulnerability.

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of the Debt Repayment Capability of Shipping Firms in Recession

In this study, an empirical analysis of 55 ship finance cases executed by a specific ship finance bank from 2009 to 2016 during the recession period was conducted. The purpose of this study was to find the factors affecting changes in the debt performance of Korean shipping companies. The main factors were the loan nature (investment purpose, loan-to-value (LTV), syndicated loans, loan terms, put-option, balloon, and spread), financial nature (total assets turnover, net profit-to-sales ratio , debt ratio, quick ratio, total borrowing, bonds payable to total assets, interest expenses-to-sales ratio, debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), and total assets), and the company nature (company age, chief executive officer’s (CEO's) shares, and listing status). In this study, the factors affecting the debt repayment capability of domestic shipping companies (loan nature, financial nature, and company nature) were verified. The credit rating was used to measure the dependent variable, debt repayment ability. The variables of investment purpose, put-option, balloon, and spread in the loan nature, debt ratio in the financial nature, and the CEO's shares and company age in the company nature were found to be significant.

Do Macroprudential Measures Increase Inequality? Evidence from the Euro Area Household Survey

Borrower-based macroprudential (MP) policies - such as caps on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) limits - contain the build-up of systemic risk by reducing the probability and conditional impact of a crisis. While LTV/DSTI limits can increase inequality at introduction, they can dampen the increase in inequality under adverse macroeconomic conditions. The relative size of these opposing effects is an empirical question. We conduct counterfactual simulations under different macroeconomic and macroprudential policy scenarios using granular income and wealth data from the Households Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) for Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal. Simulation results show that borrower-based measures have a moderate negative welfare impact in terms of wealth inequality and a negligible impact on income inequality. JEL Classification: G21, G28, G51

Debt cap regulations in mortgage lending

In this paper I study debt cap regulations in retail mortgage lending in Hungary introduced by the National Bank of Hungary. I believe the introduction of debt cap regulations was justified, but the toolkit applied should be reviewed. After studying international examples and reviewing the literature, I have concluded that LTV (loan-to-value) regulation correspond to European practice and researchers’ findings. While the introduction of LTI (loan-to-income) ratio should be considered to replace PTI (payment-to-income) ratio, as it is more stable in time and there is no incentive to switch between the increase of risk factors and the increase of the maximum amount regulated by law by PTI regulation.

The Effect of Borrower-Specific Loan-to-Valuepolicies on Household Debt, Wealth Inequality and Consumption Volatility: An Agent-Basedanalysis

This paper analyses the effects of borrower-specific credit constraints on macroeconomic outcomes in an agent-based housing market model, calibrated using U.K. household survey data. We apply different Loan-to-Value (LTV) caps for different types of agents: first-time-buyers, second and subsequent buyers, and buy-to-let investors. We then analyse the outcomes on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. The households’ consumption function, in the model, incorporates a wealth term and income-dependent marginal propensities to consume. These characteristics cause the consumption-to-income ratios to move procyclically with the housing cycle. In line with the empirical literature, LTV caps in the model are overall effective while generating (distributional) side effects. Depending on the specification, we find that borrower-specific LTV caps affect household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility differently, mediated by changes in the housing market transaction patterns of the model. Restricting investors’ access to credit leads to substantial reductions in debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility. Limiting first-time and subsequent buyers produces only weak effects on household debt and consumption volatility, while limiting first-time buyers even increases wealth inequality. Hence, our findings emphasise the importance of applying borrower-specific macroprudential policies and, specifically, support a policy approach of primarily restraining buy-to-let investors’ access to credit.

ANALISA PENILAIAN KELAYAKAN JAMINAN DALAM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN KREDIT UMKM PADA LEMBAGA KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA

Peneliti mencoba menjelaskan tentang jaminan kredit yang umumnya diterima perbankan khususnya pada segment kredit UMKM, penulis berusaha menjelaskan secara best practice terkait jaminan kredit, penilaian jaminan kredit dan jenis jaminan yang umumnya dihindari oleh perbankan. Objek dalam penelitian ini adalah bank yang melayani pembiayaan atau kredit khususnya segment UMKM baik bank pemerintah maupun bank swasta. Metode penelitian yang digunakan deskriptif kualitatif. Sumber data yang yang digunakan adalah data-data yang penulis peroleh dari web resmi bank yang dijadikan objek penelitian. Disamping itu penulis juga mengumpulkan brosur beberapa bank, data pendukung lainya adalah buku pedoman kebijakan kredit yang penulis miliki dimana penulis pernah bekerja pada beberapa bank tersebut. Untuk melengkapi informasi dan data penulis juga melakukan wawancara dengan beberapa marketing bank. Hasil Pembahasan dalam penelitian ini menjelaskan jenis jaminan yang umumnya diterima perbankan adalah tanah dan bangunan, tanah kosong, kios, kendaraan bermotor roda 2 dan 4 serta deposito. Untuk LTV (Loan To Value) atau rasio besarnya pinjaman dibandingkan dengan jaminan yang diberikan antara lain tanah kosong maksimal 70-80%, tanah dan bangunan maksimal 80%, kendaraan bermotor maksimal 60-70% dan deposito maksimal 90%. Adapun jaminan yang umumnya dihindari oleh perbankan untuk tanah dan bangunan adalah, jaminan yang diperuntukan untuk jalur hijau, lebar jalan kurang dari satu meter, dibawah aliran listrik bertegangan tinggi, dibantaran kali arus deras, tanah dalam sengketa, tanah dan bangunan yang peruntukan dan dipakai untuk fasilitas umum dan kegamaan dan lain-lain.

HOMEOWNERSHIP AND HOUSING TRANSITIONS: EXPLAINING THE DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION

AbstractWe document the evolution of homeownership rate across various age groups for the period 1995–2015. We find that variations in the homeownership rates are relatively large for the young, which is mostly driven by renter‐to‐owner transitions. In order to explain these empirical facts, we consider a life‐cycle model featuring housing tenure decisions. Housing is modeled as an indivisible and lumpy investment subject to both loan‐to‐value (LTV) and debt‐to‐income (DTI) credit constraints and transaction fees. Our analysis suggests that variations in the DTI limit play a crucial role in accounting for the uneven behavior across age groups.

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies

This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data for India suggest a strong influence of fundamental factors in driving housing prices. There is compelling evidence of the effectiveness of macroprudential tools viz., Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, risk weights, and provisioning requirements, in influencing housing price movements. A granular analysis suggests an even stronger impact on housing prices of a change in the regulatory LTV ratio for large-sized vis-à-vis small-sized mortgages, which buttresses their potency in fighting house price speculations. A tightening of the risk weights on the housing assets of banks causes significant downward pressure on house prices. Similarly, regulatory changes in standard asset provisioning on housing loans also influence house prices.

Lending pro-cyclicality and macroprudential policy: Evidence from Japanese LTV ratios

Using unique micro data compiled from the real estate registry in Japan, we examine more than 400,000 loan-to-value (LTV) business loan ratios to draw implications for caps on LTV ratios as a macroprudential policy measure. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality, behavior that would have severely impeded the efficacy of a simple LTV cap had it been imposed. We also find that borrowers obtaining high-LTV loans are more risky but grew faster than those with lower LTV loans, which implies that a simple fixed cap on LTV ratios might inhibit growing (albeit risky) firms from borrowing.