Loan Loss Provisions Research Articles

Empirical Analysis of Non-Performing Loans and Liquidity of Deposit Money Banks: Nigeria Experience

Nigerian Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) tend to have suffered the plight of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in recent times in no small quantum. Consequently, a large chunk of them have had to increase their loan loss provisions and this may dwindle their liquidity. This study investigates the effect of non-performing loans on liquidity of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria. A panel regression analysis was performed on a data of 15 quoted DMBs from 2009 to 2019, in order to examine the correlation between the explained variable (banks’ liquidity) and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) while other explanatory variables- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Bank Size (BS), Loan Growth (LG), Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Inflation were taken into consideration. Data were extracted from the banks’ yearly financial statements and the World Bank Financial Statistics. Based on the empirical findings, the study found only four variables-Non Performing Loans, Capital Adequacy Ratio, Bank Size and Inflation significantly related at 5% significant level with banks’ liquidity while the other three; Gross Domestic Product, Loan Growth and Monetary Policy Rate were identified as insignificant. The finding also revealed that NPLs has negative effect on banks’ liquidity while CAR, BS and INF showed positive relationship. The study recommends strict compliance of banks with the NPLs tolerable limit set by the Central bank. It also suggests that the CBN take proactive measure to ensure the banks’ compliance with the minimum capital requirement. Keywords: Banks, Financial Institutions, Liquidity, Non-Performing Loans, Performance

IFRS 9 and its behavior in the cycle: The evidence on EU countries

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically the behavior of expected loan loss provisions during the economic cycle. The provisioning rules under IFRS 9 require the creation of reserves to cover expected credit losses, were anticipated to act countercyclically, and thus replaced the rules under IAS 39, which are widely presumed to have a procyclical impact. Observing the dynamics of the economic cycle during the economic downturn resulting from the COVID restrictions, a panel regression was performed to test the hypothesis that loan loss provisioning rules under IFRS 9 have a procyclical impact. The hypothesis was not rejected on the basis of a sample of the member countries of the European Union for the period of 1Q 2015 – 3Q 2020. Since the conclusions about procyclicality of loan loss provisions under IFRS 9 might be sensitive to the choice of models applied by the banks or to the assumptions applied to forward‐looking information used in the models, there are certain areas that supervisory and regulatory authorities might look into to increase the quality of ECL models and their predictive power and help to eliminate potential triggers of procyclicality.

Non-Performing Loan Determinants and Impact of COVID-19: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the movement of non-performing loans in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on them. For this purpose, secondary data from the banking sector of BiH were used, over which a multi-regression analysis was performed. The variables non-performing loans, GDP, loan loss provision, and dummy variable COVID-19 were used in the analysis. The results of the analysis showed a significant influence of all three mentioned variables. The existence of a significant positive link between non-performing loans and the state of the country's economy has been proven. In addition to the above, it has been proven that the variable COVID-19 has a delayed effect on NPLs, due to the current application of the moratorium on loans.

Banks’ loan charge-offs and macro-level risk

Prior studies document that delayed loan loss provisions can worsen financial stability by triggering a capital inadequacy concern. We extend prior literature and investigate how the treatment of loan charge-offs (LCOs) in financial statements is tied to macro-level risk in the U.S. banking industry. We hypothesize and find that nondiscretionary LCOs are positively linked to banks’ future systemic risk, whereas discretionary LCOs are negatively correlated with banks’ future systemic risk. We further show that these effects are driven by two economic mechanisms: banks’ common risk exposure and interconnectedness. This study is the first to document the linkage between banks’ discretionary LCOs and macro-level risk in the banking industry.

Banks’ risk and the impact of audit quality on income smoothing

Research question: This paper investigates the impact that specific audit quality dimensions have upon European Union Banks’ income smoothing behavior. Motivation: Although previous studies have investigated the characteristics of audit quality, little is known about the audit quality in the banking sector. Excessive risk taking and business complexity may further impair auditors’ work and an audit’s outcome may be conditioned upon banks’ risk. Idea: We examine whether auditors’ independence influences bank managers’ decision to smooth income and whether this attribute depends on bank risk and systemic importance. We investigate the association between auditors’ industry specialization and auditors’ tenure with the level of Loan Loss Provisions Data: We use a sample of 133 banks from 26 European Union countries for the period 2006-2013. Tools: Similar to previous research, we use ordinary least squares analysis to test the results. Findings: Empirical findings provide evidence that the auditors’ industry expertise limits management’s discretion of high-risk banks to a greater extent relative to low risk banks. In contrast, our results imply that banks that retain the same auditor for a consecutive fiscal year are more likely to engage in income smoothing through LLPs. Furthermore, our study examines whether audit quality dimensions have different outcomes on income smoothing decisions between globally systemically important banks (GSIBs) and the rest of banks. Our results provide evidence that the impact of industry specialization and auditor tenure on EU banks accounting policy decisions differs between GSIBs and non-GSIBs. Contribution: Our analysis contributes in the existing body of research by focusing on the impact of audit quality on managements’ accounting discretion and the influence of banks’ special attributes on the audit process.

Economics of loan growth, credit risk and bank capital in Islamic banks

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the moderating role of capital on the relationship between loan growth and credit risk for Islamic banks in the post-crisis era.Design/methodology/approachThe study used annual data of 217 Islamic banks from 38 countries and ranges from 2010–2019. The study applies a two-step system GMM method for hypotheses testing about the moderating role of bank capital on the relationship between loan growth and credit risk in Islamic banks.FindingsThe findings showed that an increase in loan growth increases the credit risk of Islamic banks, as evidenced by loan loss provisions, loan loss reserves and nonperforming loans. The results indicate that capital positively moderates the relationship between loan growth and credit risk in Islamic banking. The positive relationship between bank capital and risk-taking is in line with the “regulatory hypothesis” in banking. The findings predict lower impacts of capital on the relationship between loan growth and credit risk in the South Asian region than MENA, Africa, South, East and Central Asia regions. However, the impact of capital is higher for larger Islamic banks than medium and smaller ones.Practical implicationsThe findings of the study add value to the current debate on the role of bank capital to reduce risk-taking in Islamic banks. The study's findings have implications for policymakers, managers, especially in Islamic banking, for improving the Islamic financial system by managing the role of capital, loan growth and credit risk.Originality/valueThis is the first study to explore the moderating role of bank capital on the relationship between loan growth and credit risk in the post-crisis era, especially in Islamic banking. This is the first study in the Islamic banking context, which is providing empirical evidence for the impact of loan growth on the back looking and forward-looking proxies of credit risk under the moderating role of bank capitalization in the post-crisis era. This is the first study, which providing findings based on regions and size to compare the differences in Islamic banks for the impact of loan growth on credit risk under the moderating role of capitalization.

EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION AND FINANCIAL REPORTING QUALITY OF NIGERIAN FINANCIAL SERVICE INDUSTRY

The study evaluated the effect of executive compensation on financial reporting quality in Nigerian financial service industry for the period covered. These were with a view to providing information on the effect of executive compensation and financial reporting quality in Nigeria. The study employed a secondary source of data collection. The population for the study consisted of 22 quoted deposit money banks listed and whose stocks are actively traded on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) market for the period 2006-2017.The sample size of 14 was determined using purposive sampling method. Secondary data were collected on variables executive compensation, non-performing loan, loan loss provision, total loan, residual term all obtained from the audited Annual reports of the selected deposit money banks, fact book published by Nigerian Stock Exchange, and the Central Bank of Nigeria. Data collected were analyzed using Robust Regression. The results showed executive compensation (coef. =-0.139, p˂0.004) has a negative significant relationship with financial reporting quality. This study concluded that executive compensation has a negative significant effect on financial reporting quality.

The effects of ratings disclosure by bank regulators

I examine how banks change their risk management practices in response to the private disclosure of regulatory ratings that summarize bank risk-taking. Upon ratings disclosure, affected banks increase the timeliness of their loan loss provisioning. These effects are concentrated among banks that lie below key rating thresholds and those headquartered in states with low competition. After ratings disclosure, deficient banks decrease commercial lending while shifting assets into cash. Overall, my findings highlight how performance measures produced and privately disclosed by a third party can influence actions within a firm.

Impacts of Sovereign Risk Premium on Bank Profitability: Evidence from Euro Area

We analyse the effects of sovereign risk premium on bank profitability amongst 154 Eurozone banks during the period 2005 – 2019. In contrast to some of the results in the previous literature, we find that the euro area banks have not suffered too much from the extremely low and negative interest rate era regarding their net internet margins. However, the overall profitability has lowered clearly during the sample period, and the sovereign risk premium has a robust negative effect on all the overall profitability measures, both with risk-adjustment and without it, but it seems to have an increasing effect on the degree of wholesale funding and loan loss provisions. Hence, the profitability puzzle can be explained by a shift towards low-cost wholesale-based funding. Banks have also exercised more loan loss provisions because of the increment in overall risk of the economy. However, if the negative interest rate era still prevails for long, the banking sector faces serious problems based on our results.

The Credit-Risk Relevance of Loan Impairments Under IFRS 9 for CDS Pricing: Early Evidence

Since 2018, banks have implemented the expected credit loss (ECL) model under International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 to estimate loan losses, which replaces the incurred loss model under International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39. The key novelty of the ECL model is the incorporation of forward-looking information for recognizing accounting loan loss provisions (LLPs), which provides ample room for managerial discretion. Over the period 2014–2019, I first show that the shift to the ECL model improves the timeliness of loan loss recognition. However, under the IFRS 9 regime managers also use their accounting discretion more aggressively over LLP estimates to smooth earnings. I then investigate whether IFRS 9 improves the relevance of LLPs for credit default swap (CDS) pricing. I report that LLPs under IFRS 9 are incrementally more relevant than under IAS 39 for CDS pricing but mostly concentrated amongst banks with weaker pre-IFRS 9 information environments. I further show that under the IFRS 9 regime, LLPs are relevant for CDS pricing only when LLPs consistently reflect future expected losses while earnings smoothing via LLP generally impair the credit-risk relevance of LLPs. Finally, I find that strong governance is imperative for providing useful LLP estimates for CDS pricing.

An information quality-based explanation for loan loss allowance inadequacy during the 2008 financial crisis

I study whether commercial banks' loan loss allowances were inadequate during the 2008 financial crisis because bank managers relied on low-quality information to estimate loan losses. To measure the quality of information collected on bank-held mortgages prior to the crisis, I create a bank exposure-to-mortgage fraud risk index (EFI) that captures overstatement of borrower income in mortgage applications. I find banks that originated more loans in high-risk neighborhoods had less adequate loan loss allowances during the crisis. My study is consistent with the hypothesis that fraudulent borrower information adversely affected banks’ loan loss provisioning.

Credit Risk Management and Deposit Money Banks Stability in Nigeria: Does Good Corporate Governance Matter?

The study examined the impact of credit risk management on deposit money banks stability and the moderating role of corporate governance. The study period spanned 11 years (2009-2019) and twelve (12) deposit money banks were taken as sample for the study. Annual data from sampled banks were subjected to various statistical and empirical tests. The pooled model, random effect (REM) and fixed effect model (FEM) techniques of the panel least square was adopted for empirical testing while statistical testing was done using the descriptive statistics, unit root tests and co-integration tests. Credit risk management was measured using data on non-performing loans (NPL), liquid ratio (LQR), capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and loan loss provisioning (LLP) while bank size (BS) was introduced as a control variable. Corporate governance was measured using data on audit committee independence (ACI). Banks stability was measured using the Z-score of sampled banks. Empirical result indicated that NPL had a negative insignificant relationship with bank stability and a positive insignificant relationship with bank stability when corporate governance was introduced. Other credit risk management variables (LQR, CAR, LLPR) were found to strengthen banks stability although their significance were mixed. Bank size was found to be negatively related with banks stability. Premise on research findings, the study concluded that credit risk management is germane to the stability of deposit money banks in Nigeria during the period of study. It was also concluded that corporate governance although having a positive relationship with banks stability has no significant impact. Among other things, the study recommended that detailed policies and procedures for non-performing loans exposure, management and recovery are in place so as to reduce the incidence of non-performing loans. Keywords: Credit Risk, Bank Stability, Corporate Governance, Z-Score. DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/12-16-01 Publication date: August 31 st 2021

The Cyclicality of Loan Loss Provision and Income Smoothing Behavior of Commercial Banks Pre and Post IFRS: Evidence from Ethiopia

The Cyclicality of Loan Loss Provision and Income Smoothing Behavior of Commercial Banks Pre and Post IFRS: Evidence from Ethiopia

Economic consequences of mandatory auditor reporting to bank regulators

We study the economic consequences of mandates that require bank auditors to report to bank regulators. Based on survey responses from the European Central Bank, all 28 national bank regulators within the European Union, and a review of national banking regulations, we create a novel dataset on these mandates. Exploiting the cross-sectional and time-series variation in these mandates, we find evidence that auditor reporting to bank regulators reduces bank riskiness, as measured by counterparty risk and credit spreads. We also observe a decline in problem loans and risk-weighted assets, as well as improvements in timeliness of loan loss provisions. Additional analyses suggest that mandated auditor reporting increases the effectiveness of supervisory and monitoring efforts and improves market discipline of banks. However, mandated auditor reporting comes with costs: it reduces future lending growth, risky lending, and profitability, and increases audit fees paid by shareholders.

The Effect of Earnings Management and Signaling on Loss Loan Provision: The Role of Bank Capitalization

Objective - Loan loss provision is an accrual for the banking industry, and therefore has a significant effect on bank accounting earnings and capital requirements. Previous studies showed inconsistent results for the relationship between earnings management, signaling, and loan loss provision. The difference in the results is thought to be caused by bank capitalization. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the role of bank capitalization on the effect of earnings management and signaling on loan loss provision. Methodology – The sample consists of 86 conventional banks in Indonesia for the period of 2015-2019. Furthermore, this study used panel data analysis of multiple regression. Findings – The results showed earnings management has no effect on loan loss provision. In contrast, signaling has a positive and significant effect. Although bank capitalization is not proven to weaken the effect of earnings management on loan loss provision, it strengthens the positive effect of signaling on loan loss provision. Novelty – This study proves that bank capitalization has an important role in moderating signaling impact on loan loss provision but not for the effect of earnings management. This is due to the potential for earnings management in banks is relatively low because banks are highly regulated entities and with regulated governance mechanisms limit the managers' discretionary accounting decisions. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Bank Capitalization, Earnings Management, Signaling JEL Classification: G23, G32. URI: http://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/JFBR/vol6.1_1.html DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jfbr.2021.6.1(1) Pages 43 – 50

Impact of income diversification strategy on credit risk and market risk among microfinance institutions

PurposeThis study explores the effect of income diversification strategy on credit risk and market risk of microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Ghana as an emerging market.Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on quarterly data of averagely 271 MFIs that have operated from 2016 to 2018. The dataset is unbalanced and pooled cross-sectional with 3,259 data points. The study measures the diversification strategy using income diversification indices, and accounting ratios to measure the other variables. We utilised the weighted least squares (WLS) approach to explore the nexus.FindingsThe findings show that income diversification is associated with better loan quality and credit risk management. Market risk increases with the level of income diversification of microfinance firms. It is evident that large MFIs can manage their credit risks well and can have a low default rate, depicting an overall U-shaped nexus. On the other hand, the effect of size on market risk is an inverted U-shaped. The effect of asset tangibility on credit risk is positively significant while the effect on market risk is negatively significant. High profitability enhances credit risk management leading to lower loan losses while in the case of diversified and profitable MFIs, they tend to invest more in government securities. The results suggest that MFIs that hold more cash and cash equivalents tend to have high loan loss provision and more government securities suggesting much attention should be paid to optimal cash management.Practical implicationsThe results throw light on the credit risk and market risk profile of the firms and the effect of diversification strategies on them. The findings are relevant for effective macroprudential regulation, market regulation and prudential regulation of the microfinance sector.Social implicationsThe findings reveal the nature of income diversification strategy of MFIs in emerging markets such as Ghana, pointing out how they affect the risk exposure of MFIs that lend to the pro-poor population.Originality/valueThis is a premier formal assessment of the nexus between income diversification strategies and risk management among MFIs that serve the pro-poor population in the emerging market context.

Multiple directorships and the extent of loan loss provisions: Evidence from banks in South Asia

This paper examines whether directors with multiple directorships affect extent of banks' loan loss provisions in South Asia. Our results indicate that directors with multiple directorships tend to delay the recognition of loan loss provisions. Specifically, we find the existence of a U-shaped relationship between directors with multiple directorships andloan loss provisions, indicating that the delay is more pronounced in the case of moderately busy directors than in that of directors with fewer directorships and time-poor over-boarded directors. This helps directors achieve profitability targets while maintaining their reputations and indicates their optimism about the loans’ future. Our results are robust in terms of accounting for endogeneity concerns, which are addressed using a two-stage least squares regression and entropy-balancing methodology as well as some alternative definitions of ‘multiple directorships’ used in the literature.

Bank Branching Applications and Window Dressing: Evidence on Banks’ Strategic Use of Loan Loss Provisions

After the removal of geographic restrictions on branching in 2006, China’s city commercial banks (CCBs) can apply for permission to branch outside their province. This paper shows that CCBs report higher loan loss provisions before filing an application, thereby increasing the provision coverage ratio of nonperforming loans and making the bank look safer to regulators.Our finding is robust to controlling for possible endogeneity of the branching application decision by employing propensity score matching estimators, and it is confirmed when we consider a quasi-natural experiment of deregulation reversal.

Early Detection of Failed Bank Through Analysis of Financial Ratios and Bank Shareholders Ratios Using Data Mining For Rural Banks

This study aims to determine the effect of 8 bank financial ratios such as BOPO (operational efficiency ratio), CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio), NPL (Non Performing Loan), ROA (Return On Assets), CR (Cash Ratio), KAP (quality of productive assets), PPAP (provision for loan losses) and LDR (Loan Deposit Ratio) and another ratio, namely Bank’s Shareholder ratio towards bank predictions whether a rural bank will be declared as failed bank or not. Eight financial ratios and another ratio that comparing BOD and BOC to Bank's Shareholders can be obtained from quarterly rural bank’s financial reports that have been published on the IFSA website from 2014 until 2018. The data in this research is approximately 1000 rural banks for training dataset. The method to predict rural bank become failed bank is data mining. The training dataset used is an imbalanced dataset. In order to be balanced, the SMOTE method is used. The balance dataset was then analyzed with the data mining process. The data mining methods used are KNN and Naïve Bayes, both are classification method.

Carbon neutrality, bank lending, and credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone

The development of a green financial intermediation channel is imperative to achieve zero-carbon economies. In this study, we assess the impact of carbon-neutral lending on the credit risk in the Eurozone. We employ quarterly data for a sample of 344 lending institutions of 19 member states spanning over ten years from 2011 to 2020. Using two specific credit risk measures, the findings show that the exposure to carbon-neutral lending is negatively related to the default risk. The results remain consistent for the various size sorts, depicting that regardless of the bank size, the impact of green financing on the credit risk is the same. We attribute the credit risk reduction to the lower volatility of the borrowers' earnings and cash flows emanating from their sustainable business model. As a consequence of lower credit risk, financial institutions can benefit from lower loan loss provisions and economic capital requirements. This incentive is vital to increase the carbon neutral credit and contribute towards pro-environmental goals.