Since the basic rail of the switch needs to have a certain bending angle when the train changes direction, top bending is an important link in the production process of the basic rail. The three-point pressure top bending method is simple, flexible and widely used. In this study, the traditional three-point pressure bending is optimized, the influence of the pick width in the model is considered, a corresponding rebound model is established, and the model is applied to the pressure bending process of the basic rail. The bilinear strengthening model of the material was used to construct the bending moment expressions at different positions during the top bending process, and the relationship between the load and bending deflection in the elastic stage and elastic-plastic stage was obtained. The final top bending prediction model was obtained by combining the load-deflection model in the bending stage and the rebound stage. The correctness of the theoretical mathematical model was verified by establishing finite element simulations, and the theoretical calculation results were compared with the experimental results. The results showed that the top bend prediction optimization model established in this study had high feasibility and met the machining accuracy requirements.