Liquidity Premium Research Articles

Disentangling liquidity and information asymmetry effect

This study attempts to disentangle the effect of liquidity and information asymmetry on the pricing of securities at Bombay Stock Exchange with a sample of S&P BSE 500 stocks for a time span ranging from 1st April 2000 to 31st March 2017. Firstly, we checked for the stationarity of liquidity and information premium, then employed regression models and finally Granger causality test to identify the cause and effect relationship between them. Empirical evidence indicates the stationarity of liquidity and information premium and a significantly positive relationship is observed between them. Also, it shows that information premium Granger causes liquidity premium, therefore, information factor might not be independent of liquidity factor as it contains information that helps in predicting liquidity premium. This implies that liquidity-based trading strategy and information-based trading strategy can be used by investors mutually rather than distinctly to reap abnormal returns.

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico

To study inflation expectations and associated risk premia in emerging bond markets, this paper provides estimates for Mexico based on an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for their liquidity risk. In addition to documenting the existence of large and time-varying liquidity premia in nominal and real bond prices that are only weakly correlated, the results indicate that long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are well anchored close to the inflation target of the Bank of Mexico. Furthermore, Mexican inflation risk premia are larger and more volatile than those in Canada and the United States.

Collateral Framework: Liquidity Premia and Multiple Equilibria

Central banks normally accept debt of their own governments as collateral in liquidity operations without reservations. This gives rise to a valuable liquidity premium that reduces the cost of government finance. The ECB is an interesting exception in this respect. It relies on external assessments of the creditworthiness of its member states, such as credit ratings, to determine eligibility and the haircut it imposes on such debt. We show how such features in a central bank's collateral framework can give rise to cliff effects and multiple equilibria in bond yields and increase the vulnerability of governments to external shocks. This can potentially induce sovereign debt crises and defaults that would not otherwise arise.

Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

This paper studies monetary policy in an economy where banks make risky loans to firms and provide liquidity services in the form of deposits to households. For given bank equity, market discipline implies that banks can take more deposits when assets are safer or more profitable. Banks respond to loan losses by making their balance sheets safer\textemdash i.e., they reduce risky lending sharply and accumulate more safe bonds. In contrast, a social planner would respond by making banks temporarily more profitable such that a riskier balance sheet can be maintained. A planner would temporarily reduce the expansiveness of monetary policy to avoid bonds becoming too liquid in support of the liquidity premium banks earn via deposits. Specifically, when bank equity is low, then optimal monetary policy stabilizes output by supporting bank lending rather than employment.

Real consequences of open market operations: The role of limited commitment

We study how limited commitment in credit markets affects the implementation of open market operations and characterize when they result in real indeterminacies and when they have real effects. To do so, we consider a frictional and incomplete market framework where agents face stochastic trading opportunities and limited commitment. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique stationary monetary equilibrium when limited commitment does not restrict agent’s choices. However, real indeterminacies are possible when buyers face a binding no-default constraint. When the endogenous borrowing limit binds and bonds are not priced fundamentally, open market operations generically have real effects. A sale of government bonds can increase or decrease interest rates, depending on the nature of the equilibria. These phenomena are consistent with what is observed in the US. Moreover, when multiple equilibria exists welfare is larger at the steady state with a lower liquidity premium on government debt. Finally, government bond purchases can be used to rule out real indeterminacies, thus finding another rationale for such policy.

VIX and liquidity premium

Previous studies find as the VIX goes up, the return and the Sharpe ratio on liquidity provision increase. We argue these two phenomena are correlated because they depend on the same fundamentals: investors’ risk aversion, asset variances and asset correlations. Our theoretical model shows (1) when investors are more risk-averse, they expect a higher return for providing liquidity, (2) when assets are volatile, liquidity shocks create stronger trading demands and thus liquidity demanders pay a higher premium, and (3) when assets are highly correlated, the higher risk of spillover of liquidity shocks across assets raises the price of liquidity. An increase in any of these three factors, besides increasing the expected return and the Sharpe ratio of liquidity providers, leads to a higher value for the VIX index. Our empirical analyses show that one standard-deviation increase in each of these three factors raise liquidity providers’ expected daily return (annualized Sharpe ratio) by 0.16%, 0.38% and 0.40% (0.82, 1.27 and 2.10 units), respectively.

Incomplete Information and the Liquidity Premium Puzzle

We examine the problem of an investor who trades in a market with unobservable regime shifts. The investor learns from past prices and is subject to transaction costs. Our model generates significantly larger liquidity premia compared with a benchmark model with observable market shifts. The larger premia are driven primarily by suboptimal risk exposure, as turnover is lower under incomplete information. In contrast, the benchmark model produces (mechanically) high turnover and heavy trading costs. We provide empirical support for the amplification effect of incomplete information on the relation between trading costs and future stock returns. We also show empirically that such amplification is not driven by turnover. Overall, our results can help explain the large disconnect between theory and evidence regarding the magnitude of liquidity premia, which has been a longstanding puzzle in the literature. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance.

Capital structure and cost of capital when prices affect real investments

This paper develops a theoretical model of financing with informational feedback effect that jointly determines a firm's capital structure and cost of capital. We show that under some conditions capital structure affects traders’ incentives to produce information about the prospect of the firm which they then use to trade in its securities. On one hand, informed trades incorporate new information into security prices which in turn help the firm make more efficient operating decisions. On the other hand, they increase the cost of capital as uninformed investors demand extra compensation in the form of a liquidity premium in anticipation that they will lose to informed traders. The optimal capital structure which maximizes the value of the firm is determined by the trade-off between high operating efficiency and low cost of capital. When information is not imperative for the firm's operating decisions, the Modigliani-Miller's irrelevance is maintained. However, when information is crucial for efficient operating decisions, the optimal capital structure is a balance between a high level of information revelation and a low cost of capital. The study can explain why many firms consistently hold low levels of debt and why firms with similar fundamentals may choose very different capital structures.

The default and liquidity premia of corporate bonds: evidence from the trade reporting and compliance engine

ABSTRACT This study combines information in the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE), the most extensive bond database, with other fixed income data sets in order to quantify the default and liquidity premia in a reduced form framework at the bond level. The results show that the default premium is two to three times as large as the liquidity premium, and the liquidity term structure is not decreasing in the time to maturity.

Fuel up with OATmeals! The case of the French nominal yield curve

We construct the French nominal yield curve using Svensson33 methodology and all available public data of French nominal government debt securities—Obligations Assimilables du Trésor (OATs). Our sample period starts in October 1987 and ends in April 2018. We find that the functioning of the French sovereign bond market has improved dramatically following the onset of the euro area and has been functioning reasonably well since then, with the exceptions of the Global Financial Crisis period and the European sovereign crisis period. We also find that, the French nominal on-the-run securities have, on average, a negligible liquidity premium, in sharp contrast to the U.S. nominal Treasury market, where such a premium is sizable. On average, the level and the slope of the French zero-coupon rates have been decreasing since the Global Financial Crisis.

Liquidity risk and corporate bond yield spread: Evidence from China

AbstractThis paper investigates the contribution of liquidity risk to Chinese corporate bond spreads. We calculate corporate bond spreads based on the full treasury yield curve and establish a set of liquidity measures of the Chinese corporate bonds. Our empirical study shows that liquidity premium accounts for a relatively smaller portion of corporate bond spread in China, although the market liquidity is low and corporate bond issuers are strictly pre‐screened. These findings are interesting, as the developed markets have better liquidity and less pre‐issuance restriction, and liquidity premium still explains a relatively larger portion of corporate bond spread. Besides, we also explore the determinants of Chinese corporate bond liquidity and default premiums.

The TIPS Liquidity Premium

We introduce an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields that accounts for liquidity risk in Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). The novel feature of our model is to identify liquidity risk from individual TIPS prices by accounting for the tendency that TIPS, like most fixed-income securities, go into buy-and-hold investors’ portfolios as time passes. We find a sizable and countercyclical TIPS liquidity premium, which helps our model to match TIPS prices. Accounting for liquidity risk also improves the model’s ability to forecast inflation and match surveys of inflation expectations, although these series are not included in the estimation.

Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.

DISCOUNT SHOCK, PRICE–RENT DYNAMICS, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

AbstractThe price‐rent ratio in commercial real estate is highly volatile and its variation comoves with the business cycle. To account for these facts, we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that introduces a rental market and incorporates the liquidity constraint on an individual firm's production as a key ingredient. Our estimation identifies the discount shock as the most important factor in driving price‐rent dynamics and linking the dynamics in the real estate market to those in the real economy. We illustrate the importance of the liquidity premium and endogenous TFP in the nexus of the financial and real sectors.

Asset bubbles and monetary policy

We provide a model of rational bubbles in a DNK framework. Entrepreneurs are heterogeneous in investment efficiency and face credit constraints. They can trade bubble assets to raise their net worth. The bubble assets command a liquidity premium and can have a positive value. Monetary policy affects the conditions for the existence of a bubble, its steady-state size, and its dynamics including the initial size. The leaning-against-the-wind interest rate policy reduces bubble volatility, but could raise inflation volatility. Whether monetary policy should respond to asset bubbles depends on the particular interest rate rule and exogenous shocks.

Liquidity and Asset Pricing: Evidence from Indian Stock Market

In this research article, we present a liquidity premium based asset pricing model and test it in the Indian stock market. Using high-frequency data of stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange, we show that observed illiquidity has a significant negative impact on realized stock returns even after controlling for the up and down market, volatility, and effects of derivatives trading. The illiquidity measure is modified for its time variations, and then the modified measure is used to assess its impact on returns. Using a cross-section of stocks, we show the year wise results of the model and extend it to show that it has some role in explaining returns across industries. Findings show that the down market has contemporaneous systematic risk at higher levels, and the market risk premium is higher in down markets. Finance, utility and real estate sector companies have higher systematic risk in both up and down market and investors of these sectors has relatively higher expected higher returns in comparison to companies from the rest of the segments.

Manager Characteristics and Hedge Fund Returns, Liquidity, and Survival

Existing empirical studies assert that there is significant cross-sectional variation in the risk-adjusted returns of hedge funds, and that their performance is affected by manager characteristics such as education. However, when analyzing the impact of manager characteristics, prior research does not control for the difference in liquidity. In this study we find that manager education affects the liquidity of hedge fund shares and assets; on average, managers educated in elite institutions impose stronger share restrictions and thus can better manage illiquid assets to generate a liquidity premium. We also find that manager education affects the survival of hedge funds, but that the CFA designation has a stronger impact. From 1994 to 2015, the hazard rate of CFA funds was 13.6% lower, and the difference was significant after controlling for risk, return, and investment style effects. Our findings are important because the search and due diligence process is costly for investors such as pension funds—and survival rates reduce costs. TOPICS:Performance measurement, manager selection, style investing Key Findings • Manager characteristics such as education affect the liquidity of hedge fund shares and assets. On average, hedge funds whose managers were educated in elite institutions imposed stronger share restrictions and invested in more illiquid assets than other funds did. • Share restrictions enable funds to better manage illiquid assets, and the skills and alumni networks of managers contribute to this advantage. This article shows that the major driving force is trust inspired by the reputation and network of elite institutions. • The educational backgrounds and certification of hedge fund managers are related not only to the liquidity premium that long-horizon investors can earn, but also to the lower search costs due to the higher survival rates.

STOCK LIQUIDITY PREMIUM ON THE TOKYO STOCK EXCHANGE

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether the liquidity of firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is priced in Japanese stocks. We investigate the relationships between several types of illiquidity measures and realized stock returns by employing the portfolio formation method. We find that most of the illiquidity measures proposed in the previous literature are positively associated with stock returns. This study also examines the interrelationship among illiquidity measures, return momentum, and historical volatility. Different to the previous literature for Japanese stocks, this study finds that return spreads between illiquid and liquid portfolios are not always positive and statistically significant after controlling firms’ book-to-market ratio. Thus, the liquidity premium overlaps the value premium and size premium in Japan. In addition, different types of illiquidity measures are quite differently related to momentum and volatility. Furthermore, these different associations with volatility and momentum can be explained to some extent by the book-to-market ratio.

Estimating the term structure of corporate bond liquidity premiums: An analysis of default free bank bonds

Using proxies for conversion cost parameters in conjunction with a special set of default free corporate bonds, we empirically establish that the term structure of liquidity spreads was positively sloped in the financial crisis period of 2008 and negatively sloped in the subsequent post crisis period. Importantly, these results indicate the segment of the term structure that provides the largest liquidity premiums to lenders for alternative economic scenarios. At the same time, for different financial epochs, the liquidity spreads associated with different times to maturity are clear to those who issue debt.

Designing a Main Street Lending Facility

Banks add value by monitoring borrowers. High funding costs make banks reluctant to lend. A central bank can ease funding by purchasing loans, but cannot distinguish which loans require more or less monitoring, exposing it to adverse selection. A multi-tier loan pricing facility arises as the optimal institutional design setting both the purchase price and banks' risk retention for given loan characteristics. This design dominates uniform (flat) structure for loan purchases, provides the right incentives to banks and achieves maximum lending at lower rates to businesses. Both the multi-tier and flat structures deliver welfare gains compared to no intervention, but the relative gain between the two depends on three sufficient statistics: the share of loans requiring monitoring, the risk-retention ratio, and the liquidity premium.