Liquefied Natural Gas Exports Research Articles

Australia’s gas markets: similar problems…similar solutions?

Declining supply and entrenched demand in all three of Australia’s domestic gas markets – the East Coast, Western Australia (WA) and the Northern Territory (NT) – is creating similar issues. We tend to think of these as essentially separate, disconnected and divided by vast swathes of land. But the reality is that scarce local supply has been sanctioned in all three markets – despite around 16 tcf being sanctioned for export as liquefied natural gas (LNG) – and domestic demand remains resilient, as per both Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and Wood Mackenzie forecasts. Starting with the largest, the increasingly tight East Coast market continues to hit headlines as it deals with supply crises, government interventions and new regulations. Undersupplied, underinvested and underexplored, it is also divided by activism and state and federal politics. Traditionally more sedate, the WA market has slowly drifted in a similar direction. New forecasts highlighting potential gas shortages have sparked more state intervention in the market, including banning LNG exports by certain suppliers. The NT market might be the smallest, but it’s ahead of the curve, already experiencing emergency upstream shortages that sparked increased domestic supply from LNG exporters. While there is a less diverse range of supply sources in the NT, the answer to current shortages matches the options currently being looked at by regulators on both coasts.

Beetaloo’s gas bounty: potential for LNG exports and domestic supply

Recent drilling in the Beetaloo Basin has yielded promising results for the emerging shale gas play, enabling the explorers to secure funding and establish a range of non-binding commercial agreements. Notably, Beetaloo wells have exhibited initial production rates over 30 days (IP30), spanning from 1.1 to 5.2 mmcf/day, and there is an evident trend of increasing frac stages with each new well as operators continuously optimise stimulation. This research paper presents comprehensive Beetaloo modelling results, encompassing well type curves, a comparative analysis with the renowned Marcellus shale play in the United States (frequently used as a reference point for Beetaloo), production forecasts, economic assessments, and an examination of potential commercialisation pathways. Based on our modelling findings, Beetaloo’s estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per well ranges from 7 to 14 bcf, with deeper wells into the Velkerri B Shale demonstrating relatively higher productivity. We anticipate that, with full-scale development, Beetaloo could attain peak production rates of 1 bcf/day, supported by a peak annual drilling rate averaging 50–60 wells. Overall, the Beetaloo Basin possesses the potential to recover close to 8 tcf of low reservoir CO2 gas, opening doors to the possibility of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reaching up to 4.5 mtpa and domestic gas supplies of around 94 mmcf/day, limited to the existing infrastructure capacity connecting to the east coast gas markets.

Post-Pandemic Natural Gas Utilization in Trinidad and Tobago: A Sectoral Analysis (2020–2023)

This paper examines the impact of post-pandemic shifts on natural gas utilization in Trinidad and Tobago, one of the largest producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Latin America and a significant exporter of ammonia and methanol. Employing a qualitative analysis supplemented by Granger Causality tests, the study analyzes the changes in natural gas demand across key sectors from 2020 to 2023. The findings reveal substantial volatility in natural gas prices post-COVID-19, influenced by global events that have heightened the sensitivity of Trinidad and Tobago’s economy to international market dynamics. With the nation at the crossroads of diversifying energy sources and addressing climate change imperatives, the study suggests strategic investments in renewable energies, energy efficiency, and technological upgrades. The research highlights the economic benefits of using natural gas for petrochemical production over electricity generation and points to the resilience offered by the diversity in the petrochemical export market, contrasted with the concentrated LNG export market. The study concludes with a call for integrated policy planning and an accelerated energy transition, advocating for a sustainable and resilient energy sector aligned with global climate goals.

The Biden Administration's LNG Pause: Impacts and Long‐Term Implications

The Biden Administration's widely publicized January “pausing” of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) review of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits sent a rolling wave of concern throughout the natural gas industry, as well as a small bubble of delight among environmental organizations and domestic industrial organizations who have long been opposed to LNG exports. What is the significance of the pause, both in the immediate term and more broadly? Do a few months of delay significantly matter, or, more importantly, does the pause suggest an anti‐LNG attitude in moving forward to address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?

Case Study on Decarbonization Strategies for LNG Export Terminals Using Heat and Power from CSP/PV Hybrid Plants

The race towards decarbonization is driving major oil and gas companies to explore means to use renewable heat and power for their plants as part of their commitment to reduce their carbon intensity by 80% to 100% by 2050 [1]. In terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, natural gas is considered the cleanest fossil fuel option available, and decarbonization of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is on the radar of many LNG projects developers. In addition, LNG cargos will have to be certified in the future by accredited authorities to meet defined GHG emission levels [2].
 This research study investigates a concept of providing both heat and power from a photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) solar tower hybrid plant to meet the energy demand of LNG export terminals. Two locations have been investigated for potential future LNG projects: Karratha in Australia and Ras Laffan in Qatar. Both locations have direct normal irradiance (DNI) values higher than 2000 kWh/m2/year, which is the minimum level required for CSP technology [3]. A techno-economic assessment was carried-out taking into consideration the electricity price, the grid carbon intensity and the carbon dioxide (CO2) tax in the region.
 The results indicate that the CSP/PV hybrid plant significantly accelerates the decarbonization of energy supply to the “All electric” LNG Plant. The quantity of CO2 emitted between 2025 and 2050 is reduced by 81% for Karratha (Australia) and by 88% for Ras Laffan (Qatar) compared to a grid connected LNG plant.

Impact of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on the Nigerian Exchange Rate: An ARDL Cointegration Approach, 2000 to 2021

This study aimed to investigate the impact of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports on the exchange rate of Nigeria. The investigation employed an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) methodology to analyse data spanning the years 2000 to 2021 using a biannual dataset. The empirical findings provided evidence of a statistically significant and positive influence of liquefied natural gas exports on the exchange rate. This is supported by the results obtained from the short-term analysis. The research results revealed no causal link between the exports of LNG and the exchange rate in Nigeria. The study concludes that LNG exports cause the Naira to depreciate. The research suggested that the government should actively endorse and facilitate the expansion of non-oil and gas sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and services, to cultivate a more varied export portfolio. Moreover, adequate reserves can be used to stabilize the Naira during periods of volatility caused by fluctuations in LNG exports or other external factors.

Современное состояние глобального рынка сжиженного природного газа и перспективы реализации российских арктических СПГ-проектов

Transitioning from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources has become a global trend over the past decade. Despite efforts made by the EU, USA, Japan, and several other nations to replace fossil fuels with alternative sources, significant success in this domain remains elusive, with hydrocarbons continuing to dominate the energy landscape. Notably, the share of liquefied natural gas (LNG), once perceived as a weak alternative to pipeline gas, constituted 56 % of the global gas exports by the end of 2022, with the number of consumer countries reaching 47. This study aims to assess the potential capabilities of key LNG suppliers in increasing production and export volumes to meet the growing demand in the global LNG market. A primary focus is placed on evaluating the capabilities and plans of Russian companies to execute large-scale LNG projects. The research employs methods of systems and statistical analysis, along with economic forecasting. The article discusses the key trends in the global LNG market's development and identifies the factors exerting the most significant impact on its trajectory. An analysis of the current long-term program supporting LNG production in Russia is conducted, highlighting the key support measures available to domestic companies. The practical significance of this study lies in identifying countries poised to increase their production volumes and enter the LNG production and export arena within six to seven years. The research pinpoints key large-scale domestic LNG projects set to make the Russian LNG share in the world market grow from 8 % to 15–17 %. Subsequent steps of this research will involve assessing the prospects for selling Russian and American LNG in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) market.

To tax or to spend? Modelling tax policy responses to oil price shocks

Global crude oil prices surged in 2022 due to geopolitical conflicts, raising living costs worldwide. In response, policy measures such as fuel excise cuts and energy profits levies have been adopted by policymakers worldwide. We assess the efficacy of these two fiscal policy responses to temporary supply-side oil price shocks, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with rich fiscal and industry detail. Our focus is Australia, a distinctive country that functions both as an oil importer, and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. This dual role amplifies the inflationary pressure for Australian households and industries caused by an oil price rise, because the domestic LNG industry is largely foreign-owned and capital intensive. Inflated profits therefore flow offshore, and little of the terms of trade gain stemming from the oil-indexed LNG export price accrues to domestic economic agents. We find a temporary fuel excise cut can limit GDP and employment losses, but its effectiveness in relieving household cost-of-living pressure comes at the cost of increased net foreign debt. Higher oil prices also weaken the case for this policy from an allocative efficiency perspective. In contrast, an energy profits levy can stimulate national income without compromising the budget.

Nigeria’s Inflation in the Era of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports: Insights from 2000-2021 ARDL Cointegration Analysis

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports on inflation in Nigeria over the period 2000–2021. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound co-integration approach, the study investigated both long-term and short-term relationships between LNG exports, natural gas prices, crude oil prices, and inflation in Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test indicated a mixed order of integration for the variables, suggesting the appropriateness of the ARDL cointegration method. The empirical results revealed the presence of a long-term relationship among these factors. In the long term, LNG exports, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices exhibited varying effects on inflation. While natural gas prices and crude oil prices had a statistically significant adverse impact on inflation at a 5% significance level, LNG exports did not show statistical significance. In the short term, LNG exports displayed both a negative and statistically insignificant influence, whereas crude oil prices had a positive and statistically significant effect. Natural gas prices, on the other hand, did not impact inflation significantly in the short term. The Granger causality tests revealed that there is no causal relationship between LNG exports and inflation in Nigeria. Although the influence of LNG exports on inflation lacks statistical significance, it is recommended that the government continue its commitment to the LNG sector, focusing on infrastructure and technology investments to enhance competitiveness and efficiency. Expanding into new markets and diversifying the LNG portfolio will ensure a steady revenue stream while prioritising economic diversification beyond the oil and gas sector

Measuring Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Terminals With Imaging Spectroscopy

AbstractThe rapid growth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports underscores the importance of CO2 monitoring for LNG export terminals. We present a method for measuring LNG terminal CO2 emissions using remote sensing imaging spectroscopy. The method is first validated using 47 power plant emission events with in situ measured data, then applied to 22 emission events in Sabine Pass and Cameron. The power plant data set shows a robust correlation between our estimates and in situ data, with R2 0.9146 and the average error −2%. At Sabine Pass, eight point sources are identified with emission rates from 219.69 ± 54.95 to 1,083.22 ± 308.06 t/hr. At Cameron, three point sources are identified with emission rates from 91.64 ± 25.81 to 265.61 ± 67.80 t/hr. The liquefaction carbon intensity estimates also align with past study ranges. This illustrates that remote sensing can validate environmental reporting and CO2 inventories for industrial facilities.

A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Canada’s Entry for LNG Exports in the Asia-Pacific Market

The import demand for energy resources, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), has been steadily increasing in the Asia-Pacific region. Australia, the Middle East (Qatar), the Russian Federation, and the U.S. are the major players who compete strategically to capture this ever-growing market for LNG. The objective of this paper is to examine the potential for Canada’s entry into this market as another LNG exporter and what impact that can have on the existing suppliers. Using a game-theoretic LNG export competition model, we explore the conditions under which Canada can make a profitable entry. We also investigate the effect of Canada’s entry on the profitability of the four incumbent exporters. Employing a multi-leader Stackelberg model, we found that Canada’s entry could be a Pareto superior outcome under certain conditions because it benefits all competing firms and consumers. Further, Canada’s entry into the LNG export market always helps the low-cost incumbent firms by increasing their output and profit. However, the high-cost incumbent firms’ output falls, while their profit may increase or decrease depending on the unit cost and market size parameters. With differential export costs between Canada and the U.S., the latter has an incentive to act strategically to affect the entrance of the former.

Energy Demand and the Potential Role of Imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT: The rapid economic progress of Bangladesh is associated with a swiftly rising demand and energy consumption. Future economic growth will undoubtedly require a proportionate increase in energy availability within affordable prices. Bangladesh is inherently energy-scarce and heavily dependent on imported energy, primarily fossil fuels. Several approaches and strategies were attempted over time to mitigate the energy shortage. Some of them were reasonably successful, while others failed. In this study, we first examine the historical developments of the energy sector in Bangladesh since its independence and then use three approaches – triple exponential smoothing, vector autoregression, and the Cochrane-Orcutt AR(1) process to forecast the energy demand. Data for this study were taken from various sources, including British Petroleum, International Gas Union, International Energy Agency, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, World Bank, Petrobangla, and Energy Information Agency of the United States. As expected, each model predicts an exponential growth of energy demand in Bangladesh. We then explored the possibilities of mitigating such projected energy demand. Various studies show that Bangladesh has some potential for producing energy from renewable sources, i.e., solar, hydro, wind, wave, and others. However, such possibilities are limited, and many are still in their infancy. Although an increase in renewable energy is desirable from an environmental perspective, it alone will not meet Bangladesh's growing energy demand. At least in the short term, Bangladesh must rely on imported fossil energy. Among the fossil energy sources, LNG is by far the cleanest. With the development of technology, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification, LNG production, transportation, and use are becoming less expensive. Progressively more natural gas-producing countries are joining LNG production and export, contributing to the market's competitiveness. Though historically tied to the oil market, LNG markets are becoming more and more independent because of the increasing number of participants from both the demand and supply sides. Given that both its global price and negative impact on the environment are relatively lower than other fossil fuels, imported LNG should be the fuel of choice for Bangladesh. Government policies should focus on both importing LNG and expanding renewable energy resources.

Riding the Roller Coaster—Today's Natural Gas Market and the Future

The beginning of 2023 has witnessed the biggest decline in natural gas prices in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed supply demand, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have been down since June 2022 when Freeport LNG's export facility went offline due to a fire at its facility. The CME/NYMEX February natural gas futures contract slid to an 18‐month low of $2.94/MMBtu and expired at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54 percent from where the contract closed just two months earlier in December 2022. In other words, market prices plunged, and in the middle of the winter—usually the strongest period for natural gas sales and prices. The March contract extended the slide to a 20‐month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport's eventual return will restore existing LNG export capacity, thus picking up demand levels, and by the time of publication of this column may be back in service. However, there is no new LNG export capacity due online this year—for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest natural gas markets of the last decade in 2022, which pushed prices much higher than they had been for a long time, other than during the short but fierce Winter Storm Uri experience in 2021, things they are a'changing. The stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets the industry has seen in years. However, in keeping with the natural gas industry's history of keeping traders on their toes, it looks as if we are reaching the end of the steady oversupply we have experienced since 2009, when the Shale Revolution swarmed in to move the entire industry from shortage to abundance, and enabled U.S. energy independence to take root. How did we get here, and how does the future look for natural gas supply and prices?

Evaluating liquefied natural gas export quantities from Egypt using system dynamics approach

Background: Egypt and nearby countries have been discovering new sources of natural gas (NG) leading to proven increased reserves. Egypt has two liquefaction stations for exporting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), while nearby countries do not have such stations.Aim: Egypt adopted a policy to export LNG to major importing countries in Europe. Hence, this article aims to analyse the dynamics of the factors affecting the LNG export supply chain, and the main elements of adequate policies needed to optimise decisions related to LNG export in Egypt.Settings: The input data for this study were obtained from official national and international reports.Method: A system dynamics simulation model is used as a decision support system model to optimise decisions related to LNG exports in Egypt.Results: The model gives insight into the effect of investment in new discoveries, investment in renewable energy and changes in population, gross domestic product (GDP) and LNG export prices, as well as the quantity of LNG re-export on the dynamics of LNG export Present Value and quantity.Conclusion: The research provides a novel decision support system that can be used in adopting adequate policies along the LNG industry supply chain targets, optimising decisions related to exports of LNG. For Egypt, investments in new discoveries and making a long-term agreement to buy NG to be re-exported, are recommended strategic decisions to consider when targeting the optimisation of decisions related to the export of LNG. Investment in the generation of renewable energy and decreasing the home usage patterns come next in importance.

LNG Portfolio Diversification Optimization Model of Thailand

With the increase of reliance of LNG for Thailand, tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are imported, however there is no report that describes the engagement by a mathematical model. This study constructed a mathematical model to analyze LNG supply of Thailand. Based on the outcome in 2022, the offered LNG supply pattern, which reduced the total LNG price, risk of politics and risk of maritime, exhibited that Malaysia, Brunei, and Australia are LNG exporter of Thailand. Additionally, when the demand of LNG in Thailand increase, the demand from Qatar does not increase due to the low competitiveness. Moreover, in the study of diversification, the details suggested the raking of suppliers that Thailand should import. The rank is as follows: Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, USA, and Trinidad & Tobacco. The study of the objective factors on the decision of Thailand shows that the risk associated with shipping is ineffective to Thailand’s LNG supply due to the geographical closeness of the supplier countries. However, the risk connected to the political of supplier nations is influenced by the decision of the supply. Furthermore, this study revealed the limitation of the research associated with the LNG supply of Thailand. Hence, the finding of this study not only presented the alternative policy of Thailand but also consolidated Thailand’s energy security.

Debt and Optionality in U.S. LNG Export Projects

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects have substantially more spot trading of LNG than traditional projects. While this reduces the debt capacity of the projects, it allows project developers to better exploit many types of real options. Exploiting those options greatly increases the positive skewness of project cash flows. While the modal operating profits for a representative U.S. LNG export project are unlikely to cover fixed costs, interest and taxes at usual leverage ratios, the mean real equity return is likely to be positive. Some quarters could return extremely high profits. Understanding determinants of spot trading of LNG matters because increased spot trading will better integrate global natural gas markets.

Case study on decarbonization strategies for LNG export terminals using heat and power from CSP/PV hybrid plants

The race towards decarbonization is driving major oil and gas companies to explore means to use renewable heat and power for their plants as part of their commitment to reduce their carbon intensity by 80% to 100% by 2050 (Holbrook, 2023). In terms of GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions, natural gas is considered the cleanest fossil fuel option available, and decarbonization of new LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) projects is on the radar of many LNG projects developers. In addition, LNG cargos will have to be certified in the future by accredited authorities to meet defined GHG emission levels (Stern, 2019).This research study investigates a new concept of providing both heat and power from a PV (Photovoltaic) and CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) hybrid plant to meet the energy demand of an LNG export terminal. Two locations have been investigated for potential future LNG projects: Karratha in Australia and Ras Laffan in Qatar. Both locations have DNI values higher than 2000 kWh/m2/year, which is the minimum level required for CSP technology (Lovegrove and Stein, 2021).The LCCA (Levelized Cost of CO2 abatement) was used to compare the various solar configurations to select the option that will bring the greatest amount of CO2 reduction for the same investment cost (CGEP, 2020). The solar configurations technical parameters were defined based on the surface land available, natural gas feed composition and LNG plant design characteristics. The techno-economic assessment was carried-out taking into consideration the electricity price, the grid carbon intensity, and the CO2 tax in the region.Whilst in Australia a collocated single plant is favourable in terms of land availability and DNI (Direct Normal Irradiation) level, in Qatar, heat and power production have been separated into two distinct locations. Next to the LNG plant, a CSP plant provides heat only, whereas 130 km away, the hybrid PV/CSP plant located at Qurain EL Bawl provides electric power.The results indicate that the PV/CSP hybrid plant significantly accelerates the decarbonization of energy supply to the “All electric” LNG Plant. Depending on the solar field size, the quantity of CO2 emitted between 2025 and 2050 is reduced by 78–81% for Karratha (Australia) and by 82–88% for Ras Laffan (Qatar) compared to a grid connected plant.In addition, the economic assessment indicated that buying electricity from the grid during the period 2025–2050 would be more expensive for Australia then investing in a PV/CSP plant. In Qatar, the LCOE range of 93–110 US$/MWh is not competitive with the price of electricity in the region Qatar, mainly because of energy subsidies, however both the carbon tax and electricity price will need to be raised to the same level as in Australia to diversify and expand the power sector in the region.

Тенденции развития мирового рынка сжиженного природного газа и перспективы реализации российских арктических проектов

The environmental agenda, as well as issues of reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, are currently treated as a global trend. In such conditions, developed countries openly and actively declare their plans to switch from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources in their energy consumption. At the same time, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is developing at such a pace that in 10–15 years, according to experts, it will bypass the pipeline market. Nevertheless, a significant increase in prices for “blue fuel” at the end of 2021 and the first half of 2022 called into question the reality of following the chosen course in the near future. The study identified the main LNG importers by the end of 2021 (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India), as well as the key exporters (Australia, Qatar, USA, Russia, Nigeria, Algeria, Malaysia, Oman and Indonesia). The analysis showed that in the medium term, Qatar, the United States and Russia will be able to significantly increase the volume of natural gas and LNG production. Australia, despite its status as the largest exporter of LNG by the end of 2021, due to the shortage of natural gas in the domestic market, will not be able to increase export volumes in the near future. The purpose of the study is to analyze the main trends in the development of the global LNG market in new geopolitical conditions and to determine the prospects for the implementation of Russian Arctic LNG projects. The scientific novelty of the work lies in determining the potential of the largest LNG suppliers in terms of increasing the LNG production and export regarding the forthcoming 5–8 years. The next stage of the work will be the assessment of the prospects for the sale of Russian and American LNG in the European Union and the Asia-Pacific region markets.

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of LNG export for hydrogen production

A critical requirement of a widely contemplated hydrogen economy is the development of a low carbon hydrogen supply chain that is cost competitive. This comprehensive techno-economic assessment demonstrates, for the first time, the viability of a complete hydrogen supply chain based on the transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This is demonstrated via the established LNG trade route from Australia to Japan against three key performance indicators (KPIs): delivered hydrogen cost, CO2 emissions intensity (EI) across the entire supply chain, and technology readiness level (TRL). The hydrogen supply chain entails LNG export to Japan where it is used for blue hydrogen production; the by-product CO2 is then liquefied and repatriated to Australia for sequestration or utilisation. Within this supply chain, various hydrogen production technologies are assessed, including steam methane reforming (SMR), autothermal reforming (ATR) and natural gas pyrolysis (NGP). SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS) resulted in the lowest total hydrogen supply cost of 19 USD/GJ (2.3 USD/kgH2) which comfortably meets the 2030 Japanese hydrogen cost target of 25 USD/GJ (3 USD/kgH2) and is very close to the 17 USD/GJ 2050 Japanese hydrogen cost target. This technology also obtained the lowest CO2 emission intensity (EI) of 38 kgCO2/GJ (4.5 kgCO2/kgH2); this was surprisingly lower than ATR with CCS primarily due to the emissions associated with ATR electricity provision for air separation. Future technologies and strategies are detailed so as to further reduce cost and supply chain emissions; these were shown to be able to reduce total CO2 EI to 14 kgCO2/GJ (1.6 kgCO2/kgH2). Hence this analysis indicates that this supply chain can act to significantly reduce CO2 emissions whilst uniquely meeting targeted hydrogen supply costs up to 2050. As such it is proposed here as an eminently viable hydrogen export option deploying both existing technology and capacity, at least until other hydrogen supply chain vectors (such as liquid hydrogen and ammonia) derived from green hydrogen production become competitive across all the KPIs.

LNG export diversification and demand security: A comparative study of major exporters

Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has doubled over the past decade. The long-term outlook for natural gas is strongest among the fossil fuels. Specifically, LNG is expected to play an increasing role in meeting global natural gas demand, as it provides a flexible link between geographically separated suppliers and customers. In the context of the growing role of LNG in the global energy system, this paper focuses on the world's five largest LNG exporters: Australia, Qatar, the United States of America (USA), Russia and Malaysia. In 2021, they accounted for three-quarters of the global supply. By focusing on exporters, the paper addresses the bias in energy policy literature, which is largely concerned with energy importers. The paper engages in a comparative analysis of LNG exports by five suppliers by considering the extent of their diversification. Focusing on the 2009–2021 period, the paper leverages eight variables to explain patterns of diversification of LNG exports among suppliers and over time. The paper finds that the geographical location and gas price differential across regional markets have the most explanatory power. This finding has significant policy implications for the behaviour of LNG exporting states, demonstrating high sensitivity to economic factors.