LNG Portfolio Diversification Optimization Model of Thailand

Abstract

With the increase of reliance of LNG for Thailand, tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are imported, however there is no report that describes the engagement by a mathematical model. This study constructed a mathematical model to analyze LNG supply of Thailand. Based on the outcome in 2022, the offered LNG supply pattern, which reduced the total LNG price, risk of politics and risk of maritime, exhibited that Malaysia, Brunei, and Australia are LNG exporter of Thailand. Additionally, when the demand of LNG in Thailand increase, the demand from Qatar does not increase due to the low competitiveness. Moreover, in the study of diversification, the details suggested the raking of suppliers that Thailand should import. The rank is as follows: Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, USA, and Trinidad & Tobacco. The study of the objective factors on the decision of Thailand shows that the risk associated with shipping is ineffective to Thailand’s LNG supply due to the geographical closeness of the supplier countries. However, the risk connected to the political of supplier nations is influenced by the decision of the supply. Furthermore, this study revealed the limitation of the research associated with the LNG supply of Thailand. Hence, the finding of this study not only presented the alternative policy of Thailand but also consolidated Thailand’s energy security.