Effective pressure prediction is of great significance for fracturability evaluation in unconventional reservoirs. Quantitative characterization of effective pressure remains a great challenge in the inversion prediction of subsurface media. Our goal is to develop a novel Bayesian amplitude varying with azimuth (AVAZ) inversion method to estimate fracture weaknesses and effective pressure for a horizontal transversely isotropic (HTI) medium. Using Schoenberg’s linear slip model and pore space compressibility theory, an anisotropic saturated stiffness matrix directly characterized by effective pressure is derived based on a weak-contrast interface separating two weakly anisotropic half-spaces of HTI medium. Based on the perturbation stiffness matrix and scattering theory, we derive a PP-wave reflection coefficient approximation directly characterized by fracture weaknesses and effective pressure-sensitive parameters, which establishes a quantitative relationship between seismic reflection coefficient and effective pressure. The analysis of accuracy and sensitivity is performed to verify the reliability and applicability of the constructed reflection coefficient. And then, the azimuth-amplitude-difference forward solver is constructed based on seismic reflection coefficients to eliminate the influence of isotropic background perturbations on seismic reflection coefficients and reduce the condition number of the forward solver. Finally, we present a novel Bayesian azimuth-amplitude-difference AVAZ inversion method for transversely isotropic media constrained by Cauchy and Gaussian regularization to directly estimate the fracture weaknesses and effective pressure-sensitive parameters. The application of synthetic data and field data verifies that the inversion results are in good agreement with the actual data, indicating that the method can effectively realize the stable prediction of anisotropic parameters and effective pressure-sensitive parameters of complex media.
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