Limited Explanatory Power Research Articles

Green illusions in self-reporting? Reassessing the intention-behavior gap in waste recycling behaviors

Improving residents' waste recycling behavior is crucial for enhancing resource efficiency and reducing carbon emissions. Previous questionnaire-based studies have reported that individuals exhibit a high willingness to recycle, yet often fail to convert this intention into action. Analyzing 180,417 Internet of Things (IoT) behavior data points, we discovered that the intention-behavior gap might be larger than anticipated. Our findings indicate that: 1) Intentions to recycle alone can predict self-reported recycling behavior (p < 0.01, t = 2.841), but not actual recycling behavior in the absence of other possible moderators (p > 0.1, t = 0.777); 2) Self-reported behavior predicts real behavior, but with limited explanatory power; and 3) The intention-behavior gap primarily results from forgetting or habituation (p < 0.01, t = 2.653), while social desirability plays an insignificant role (p > 0.1, t = 0.246). This study contributes to our understanding of the intention-behavior gap and provides direction for future pro-environmental behavior research.

Human capital quality and stock returns

This study investigates the impact of human capital (HC) quality on stock returns. We propose a measure of the quality of HC embedded in firms’ organization capital and show that firms with high-quality HC earn higher future stock returns than firms with low-quality HC, which is not attributable to prevalent risk factors or labor-related factors. The organization capital-to-assets ratio, capturing the relative quantity of organization capital, has significant but limited explanatory power for the return predictability of HC quality. We also confirm the adverse effects of increased HC costs on firm value. These findings are consistent with the argument that firms with higher HC quality have greater exposure to technology frontier shocks due to the risk of key talents leaving.

Climate, flood, and attitudes toward violence: micro-level evidence from Karamoja, Uganda

Concerns about the security implications of climate change are increasing. The growing academic literature on the topic suggests that linkages between climate change and armed conflict are shaped by structural risk factors, but micro-level variation and mechanisms remain poorly understood and flood responses are hardly studied. In this paper, we strive to contribute to a better understanding of such micro-level patterns and investigate how flood exposure affects the support for violence in the Karamoja region of Uganda, which is characterized by many structural vulnerabilities to climate change and armed conflict. We use unique household-level survey panel data and investigate changes in survey responses following a destructive flood. Our study finds that flood exposure was associated with greater support for the use of violence. However, while we identify some adverse impacts of flood exposure on the perceived and actual socio-economic conditions of households and a decrease in perceptions of government support, these do not seem to mediate the estimated flood impact on support for violence against expectations. Our findings point to the limited explanatory power of natural hazards’ economic impacts alone for conflict risk. Further investigation of causal mechanisms between climate hazards and conflict remains an important priority for future research.

Macroeconomic effects of demand and supply shocks in the global oil price on the Vietnamese economy

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of several structural shocks in oil prices on the Vietnamese economy and answer three key research questions: Is there a relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators in Vietnam? How do different types of oil price impulses affect Vietnamese inflation and economic performance? To what extent do structural shocks in oil prices explain variations in Vietnam’s macroeconomic indicators?Design/methodology/approachLower triangular Cholesky decomposition is performed on a short-term impact matrix in a two-block structural vector autoregressive model. The data set is defined monthly, from January 2000 to December 2021. The contributions of structural shocks in oil prices to the domestic variances are analysed using variance decomposition methods. In this study, both forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition are used.FindingsThe consequences of oil price fluctuations on Vietnamese output and inflation depend on different sources of oil price shocks. In comparison, oil supply shocks have an insignificant effect on both domestic industrial output and consumer price index inflation; however, positive shocks in aggregate and precautionary oil demands increase these domestic indicators substantially and sustainably. An analysis of variance decompositions reveals that supply-side oil shocks have very limited explanatory power for variations in domestic variables. Nevertheless, the contributions of unanticipated demand-side booms to domestic variations in the past and projected forecasts are considerable.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings from this research uncover potential risks for Vietnam’s economic prospects if the consequences of oil price shocks are not managed effectively.Originality/valueGiven the lack of economic sensitivity to supply-side oil shocks and the strong response to shifts in oil demands, greater pressure on the domestic economy is likely when Vietnam increases its dependence on oil imports.

Asylum seekers in the machinery of the state: administrative capacity vs. preferences. Recognition rates in EU member states

Studies have sought to explain variation in protection recognition rates between EU member states with, however, limited explanatory power. Surprisingly, few have contemplated the role of the administration, despite it being at the centre of the process through which asylum claims are examined. We posit that recognition rates are significantly affected by administrative capacity, although the administration's action may be mitigated by political factors. Our findings show that administrative effectiveness and experience in asylum matters yield higher recognition rates. We show that government preferences and the overall political context affect protection recognition, too. Importantly, we also find that the mechanisms at play are different if we consider the different forms of protection.

Awards are career catalysts for young talents in association football

ABSTRACT Research question Despite the potential importance of awards as a possible career catalyst, research on awards is still in its infancy, specifically in sports management. Here, we address this shortcoming in the sports economics and management literature by exploring data from youth association football. Research methods Estimating different probit regression models, we analyze whether an early career award, the so-called Fritz Walter Medal, significantly affects the awardee’s career trajectory in a highly competitive environment, i.e. German youth football, where performance differences are often still hardly perceivable. Results and Findings We find that receiving an award seems, per se, to be a robust positive signal for a player’s future career success. Intriguingly, though, both the award characteristics and the awardee’s age only add limited explanatory power. Implications Our empirical results indicate that winning a prestigious award can represent a reliable status-oriented signal for individuals, especially young gifted talents entering highly competitive job markets.

Human-Plant Coevolution: A modelling framework for theory-building on the origins of agriculture

The domestication of plants and the origin of agricultural societies has been the focus of much theoretical discussion on why, how, when, and where these happened. The 'when' and 'where' have been substantially addressed by different branches of archaeology, thanks to advances in methodology and the broadening of the geographical and chronological scope of evidence. However, the 'why' and 'how' have lagged behind, holding on to relatively old models with limited explanatory power. Armed with the evidence now available, we can return to theory by revisiting the mechanisms allegedly involved, disentangling their connection to the diversity of trajectories, and identifying the weight and role of the parameters involved. We present the Human-Plant Coevolution (HPC) model, which represents the dynamics of coevolution between a human and a plant population. The model consists of an ecological positive feedback system (mutualism), which can be reinforced by positive evolutionary feedback (coevolution). The model formulation is the result of wiring together relatively simple simulation models of population ecology and evolution, through a computational implementation in R. The HPC model captures a variety of potential scenarios, though which conditions are linked to the degree and timing of population change and the intensity of selective pressures. Our results confirm that the possible trajectories leading to neolithisation are diverse and involve multiple factors. However, simulations also show how some of those factors are entangled, what are their effects on human and plant populations under different conditions, and what might be the main causes fostering agriculture and domestication.

Regional variation in tax compliance and the role of culture

This research note analyzes the role of culture on individuals’ tax compliance by focusing on regional differences within a single country: Italy. Southern Italy has long been a focus of research interest, not only for its high rates of tax evasion, but for a host of other social and political ills, all usually attributed to regional culture. Our laboratory tax compliance experiment, conducted in provinces of the northern and southern regions, reveals that taxpayers in the north and south generally behaved alike both in terms of average compliance rates and individuals’ sensitivity to changes in tax structures—except for lower responsiveness to greater redistribution of tax revenues among subjects in Salerno than those in Bologna. This suggests the limited explanatory power of culture in tax compliance in favor of institutional explanations.

From Contractual Flexibility to Contractor’s Cooperative Behavior in Construction Projects: The Multiple Mediation Effects of Ongoing Trust and Justice Perception

The flexible contract is an important mechanism for owners to govern contractors in construction projects. Given the limited explanatory power of the justice mechanism and the important role of relational factors, this study explored the role of ongoing trust and justice perception in the relationship between contractual flexibility and the contractor’s cooperative behavior and aimed to further reveal the potential influence paths through an empirical analysis. We found the following: (1) apart from justice perception, ongoing trust is another crucial mediation factor in the relationship. (2) Together with the former, ongoing trust plays significantly multiple mediation effects and constitutes the main indirect influence paths, among which the parallel one is strongest and the chain one comes third. (3) Moreover, both factors are more likely to be impacted by contract executing flexibility, compared with contract content flexibility. These findings enrich relational mechanism research and provide some guidance for the owner to build contractual flexibility to govern contractors’ behavior.

Effects of consecutive dry and wet days on the forest–savanna boundary in north‐west South America

AbstractAimMultiple abiotic and biotic factors, mainly the amount and seasonality of precipitation, fire regime, soil properties and species adaptation strategies, have been invoked to explain the existence of the tropical savanna–humid forest transition. We explored the rainfall variables that influence the probability of forest or savanna occurring in north‐west South America, specifically monthly precipitation and the mean and maximum duration of wet and dry spells, defined as the number of consecutive wet (dry) days.LocationNorth‐west South America.Time period1980–2017.Major taxa studiedSavanna and humid forest.MethodsWe used a set of logistic generalized linear models to assess the effect of multiple variables on the probability of occurrence of forest. Predictor variables included monthly precipitation, mean monthly dry and wet spells and maximum monthly dry and wet spells.ResultsThe probability of forest (savanna) occurrence depends mostly on the average duration of dry and wet spells and the interaction between these two variables, whereas the effect of total monthly precipitation is marginal. Dry spell duration had the largest effect on the probability of forest occurrence, which decreased by 7.5% for each additional consecutive dry day. For wet spells, the probability of forest occurrence increased by 4.1% for each additional consecutive wet day. Our model shows that the savanna–forest transition takes place under an average combination of dry spells lasting 8–10 days and wet spells lasting 1–3 days during the dry season (December–February). This combination changes to dry spells lasting 1–3 days and wet spells lasting 4–6 days during the wet season (May–July).Main conclusionsThis study reveals the importance of using precipitation data with a fine temporal scale to investigate forest–savanna distribution and indicates the limited explanatory power of aggregated precipitation variables (e.g., monthly and annual values). Models that assess the effect of climate change should therefore incorporate precipitation variables acquired at finer temporal resolution.

Mapping of the Hydrophobic Composition of Lignosulfonates

Lignosulfonates are industrial biorefinery products that are characterized by significant variability and heterogeneity in their structural composition. Typically, they exhibit high dispersities in molar mass (molar mass distribution─MMD) and in functionalities (functionality-type distribution─FTD), which crucially affect their material usage. In terms of FTD, state-of-the-art lignin analytics still rely mainly on the determination of functional group contents, which are statistical averages with limited explanatory power. In contrast, our online hydrophobic interaction chromatography–size-exclusion chromatography 2D-LC approach combines the determination of both MMD and FTD in a single measurement to provide a comprehensive picture of the characteristic composition of industrial lignosulfonates─information hitherto inaccessible by state-of-the-art lignin analytics. In this way, the complex inter-relationships between these two important structural parameters can be studied in an unprecedented manner. In this study, we reveal the considerable differences in terms of hydrophobic composition and its dispersity present in a range of different industrial lignosulfonates─data desperately needed in tailoring and refining of lignosulfonate composition for material usage.

Central and Northern European caterpillar assemblages show strong phylogenetic structure

AbstractPhylogenetic diversity metrics have been used to tackle an increasing number of questions in ecology and evolutionary biology. Here we present a novel use of phylogenetic diversity metrics namely the investigation of insect herbivore assemblages on select plant species in order to investigate possible drivers shaping the phylogenetic structure of those assemblages.We investigated the phylogenetic structure of lepidopteran herbivore assemblages on 208 species of central European vascular plants. A dataset of 2,553 species of Lepidoptera from 68 families, comprising 8,584 individual herbivore‐host associations, was analysed for patterns of phylogenetic α‐ and β‐diversity in relation to plant growth form, plant phylogeny and the accumulation of some characteristic major classes of secondary plant metabolites.Distinct patterns of phylogenetic β‐diversity were detected when plants were partitioned into three growth form categories (graminoid, herbaceous and woody). In contrast, groupings of plants according to higher taxa or key secondary metabolites did not yield similarly clear patterns. Notable exceptions were assemblages on graminoid plants, especially those containing silica, which could be distinguished by both plant phylogeny and their phytochemical characteristics. Additionally plants containing highly toxic glucosinolates (all of the family Brassicaceae) harbour highly distinct lepidopteran assemblages. Phylogenetic α‐diversity of associated caterpillars differed greatly between graminoid, herbaceous and woody plants. Assemblages on graminoid plants were found to be the most phylogenetically clustered, followed by herbs and woody plants which showed the least degree of phylogenetic clustering. In conclusion, our results indicate that the phylogenetic structure of the investigated herbivore assemblages in the nemoral and boreal zones of the Western Palaearctic region is most heavily influenced by plant growth form while categories derived from higher plant systematics or classifications reflecting secondary metabolites leave far less signal at this macroecological scale.The approach taken in this study proved to be very successful in identifying patterns in the phylogenetic structure of herbivore assemblages. Our findings are in line with the ‘classical’ plant apparency hypothesis. Plant secondary compounds were found to have only limited explanatory power on our scale of analysis.A freePlain Language Summarycan be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Geographical interventions into debates regarding ‘men who have sex with men’ (MSM)

While today ubiquitous in HIV/AIDS policy and programming, the conceptual category of ‘men who have sex with men’ (MSM) has come under sustained critique as a result of its limited explanatory power and inability to engage with social, cultural and community complexity. This article examines how geographers may add substantively to such critical debates and extend them in new ways across sites in the global South where the category is often deployed. It does this by considering the importance of place, varying local and international imperatives for the category, and implications of considering socio-spatial liminality to conceptualise men’s experiences of HIV programming.

Racial Oppression and Racial Projects in Consumer Markets: A Racial Formation Theory Approach

AbstractThe dominant theoretical approach to exploring ethnic and racial inequality in marketing and consumer research focuses on discrete acts of discrimination that stem from social psychological causes (e.g., prejudice, stereotypes, and negative racial attitudes). It holds limited explanatory power for meso- and macro-structural phenomena that also generate racialized outcomes. An implication is that ethnic and racial inequality can be portrayed as something imposed on market systems rather than a routine feature of their functioning. In response, I introduce and synthesize two variants of Racial Formation Theory (RFT) and propose it as a useful theoretical approach for addressing whether and how organizational and institutional actors in market systems engage in goal-directed action that allocates resources in ways that challenge (or reinforce) ethnic and racial oppression.

From occupational to existential class: How to analyze class structure in hybrid societies (The case of Serbia).

In this article, we propose a model to analyze the class structure of hybrid post-socialist societies in South-East Europe (SEE), using the case of Serbia. We argue that, in such hybrid societies, social inequalities are generated by several mechanisms of similar strength: exploitative market mechanisms (based on economic capital) and different types of social closure mechanisms (based on political and social capital). Their influences are intertwined and cannot be analytically isolated or reduced to a common foundation. Therefore, occupational class analysis in these societies can have only limited explanatory power. In an attempt to overcome these challenges, we were forced to modify the instruments of several established approaches to class analysis. These modifications included (1) a reconceptualization of Bourdieusian notions of political, social, and cultural capital, (2) a different operationalization of social space, (3) identification of specific mechanisms of generating social inequalities, (4) paying attention to both practical and discursive classifications of lifestyles in the establishment of symbolic boundaries, and (5) relying on differential association analysis for identifying class boundaries. Our analysis's final result is a model that enables studying general social inequality, that is, generalized social advantage/disadvantage, in SEE post-socialist societies.

Corporate cash and governance: A global look into publicly-traded companies' aggregate cash ratios

I conduct international panel-data regressions to investigate the determinants of cash holdings by publicly-traded firms for 20 countries over the period 2007–2017. The precautionary, transaction-costs, and agency motives explained ratios of the firms' aggregate cash to their total assets. On the last motive, higher cash ratios were associated with managers with worse ethical behavior, lower accountability, weaker investor protection, harsher auditing and reporting standards, and greater potential to face holdup problems by lending banks. The agency motive had a greater marginal impact than the precautionary and transaction-costs motives while having a limited explanatory power over total variation in the cash ratios.

Does patent abandonment weaken performance persistence? A real option perspective

ABSTRACT Most studies on patent renewal propose that abandonment indicates low quality and weakens firm performance. However, in practice, firms sometimes abandon patents as a rational strategy for pruning their patent portfolios. The discordance between literature and practice manifest a research gap. Studies of patent quality view usually focus on individual patents but overlook firms’ strategic blueprints. This study aims to reconcile this discordance through real option perspective, by elaborating on how patent abandonment affects performance persistence. The empirical analysis uses panel data of 1920 listed firms in mainland China. The results show that patent abandonment is negatively but not significantly associated with performance persistence, indicating the limited explanatory power of the patent quality view. Furthermore, this study finds that uncertainty strengthens the relationship between the two variables, especially in the presence of a diverse patent portfolio. These findings are consistent with the arguments of real option theory and confirm the option value of abandoned patents.

Sources of individual differences in adults' ICT skills: A large-scale empirical test of a new guiding framework.

We develop an integrative conceptual framework that seeks to explain individual differences in the ability to use information and communication technologies (ICT skills). Building on practice engagement theory, this framework views the continued usage of digital technologies at work and in everyday life (ICT use) as the key prerequisite for the acquisition of ICT skills. At the same time, the framework highlights that ICT use is itself contingent upon individual and contextual preconditions. We apply this framework to data from two recent German large-scale studies (N = 2,495 and N = 2,786, respectively) that offer objective measures of adults’ ICT skills. Findings support our framework’s view of ICT use as a key prerequisite for ICT skills. Moreover, they demonstrate that literacy skills have strong associations with ICT skills, largely by virtue of their indirect associations through ICT use. By comparison, regional digital cultures (as proxied by internet domain registration rates) evince only limited explanatory power for individual differences in ICT skills.

Baseline cognition is the best predictor of 4-year cognitive change in cognitively intact older adults

BackgroundWe examined in cognitively intact older adults the relative weight of cognitive, genetic, structural and amyloid brain imaging variables for predicting cognitive change over a 4-year time course.MethodsOne hundred-eighty community-recruited cognitively intact older adults (mean age 68 years, range 52–80 years, 81 women) belonging to the Flemish Prevent Alzheimer’s Disease Cohort KU Leuven (F-PACK) longitudinal observational cohort underwent a baseline evaluation consisting of detailed cognitive assessment, structural MRI and 18F-flutemetamol PET. At inclusion, subjects were stratified based on Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 and Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) val66met polymorphism according to a factorial design. At inclusion, 15% were amyloid-PET positive (Centiloid >23.4). All subjects underwent 2-yearly follow-up of cognitive performance for a 4-year time period. Baseline cognitive scores were analysed using factor analysis. The slope of cognitive change over time was modelled using latent growth curve analysis. Using correlation analysis, hierarchical regression and mediation analysis, we examined the effect of demographic (age, sex, education) and genetic variables, baseline cognition, MRI volumetric (both voxelwise and region-based) as well as amyloid imaging measures on the longitudinal slope of cognitive change.ResultsA base model of age and sex explained 18.5% of variance in episodic memory decline. This increased to 41.6% by adding baseline episodic memory scores. Adding amyloid load or volumetric measures explained only a negligible additional amount of variance (increase to 42.2%). A mediation analysis indicated that the effect of age on episodic memory scores was partly direct and partly mediated via hippocampal volume. Amyloid load did not play a significant role as mediator between age, hippocampal volume and episodic memory decline.ConclusionIn cognitively intact older adults, the strongest baseline predictor of subsequent episodic memory decline was the baseline episodic memory score. When this score was included, only very limited explanatory power was added by brain volume or amyloid load measures. The data warn against classifications that are purely biomarker-based and highlight the value of baseline cognitive performance levels in predictive models.

The time for realism? Assessing US and Russian foreign policy in the Syrian war from realist perspectives

ABSTRACT When the people from Tunis to Aleppo protested against repression back in 2011, Fukuyama's classic promise seemed to materialize. Yet, rather than an extension of the liberal world order, we were to witness its very demise in the region. Syria became the prime example for the return of power politics and proxy wars. Spiralling into chaos, it is now the arena of different actors with great power ambitions. Realist approaches were widely criticized for their seemingly limited explanatory power and lack of analytical consistency. However, they seem to provide the right analytical tool kit for the current situation in the Middle East. Within the framework of this case study, we compare the varying analytical perspectives and explanatory power provided by realism's branches. We discuss our findings in the light of the ongoing debate about the consistency of realist theory and their implications for studying international politics in times of crisis.