Purchase Likelihood Research Articles

Are We There Yet? Analyzing Progress in the Conversion Funnel Using the Diversity of Searched Products

The conversion funnel is a model describing the stages consumers go through in their journey toward a purchase. This journey often lasts several days to weeks and can include multiple visits to a seller’s website. A large body of literature has focused on using observable search patterns to identify consumers’ hidden purchasing stages and to estimate their likelihood of conversion. We propose a novel set of measures to better reveal the consumer’s hidden stage in the funnel. These measures are based on the diversity of the searches that a customer engages in while browsing an e-commerce website, and they include not only the number of different products that are searched for, but also measures that rely on unobserved similarities among products, captured in a product network (in which products are assumed to be “similar” if they are frequently co-searched). We operationalize and evaluate our proposed measures using a large-scale dataset from a medium-sized tourism website used for comparing and booking flights. We estimate a hidden Markov model to show that our proposed diversity measures are associated with progress in the funnel and consumers’ conversion likelihood. Specifically, we show that consumers go through different distinguishable stages (states) in their journey, characterized by different values of our proposed diversity measures. To demonstrate the managerial and business implications of our theory, we show that incorporating search-diversity measures into a baseline prediction model significantly improves the model’s performance in predicting purchase likelihood and churn.

I feel so embarrassed, still, I want it! The self-presentational dilemma of counterfeit luxury buyers

PurposeThis study aims to examine whether counterfeit luxury buyers’ tendency to impress others overrides their anticipation of embarrassment or whether the anticipation of embarrassment delimits their self-presentational goals.Design/methodology/approachThis paper is based on three studies – a survey and two experiments that test the predictions. This study adopts a mix of moderation and mediation analyses to test the proposed hypotheses.FindingsThe findings reveal a greater counterfeit purchase likelihood and embarrassment aversion among publicly (vs privately) self-conscious consumers. Furthermore, a higher (vs a lower) audience class and a conspicuous (vs an inconspicuous) brand lead to lower counterfeit purchase intention, and anticipated embarrassment mediates both these effects. To mitigate the threat of embarrassment, publicly self-conscious consumers are more likely to buy counterfeits among a higher-class audience when the brand is inconspicuous (vs conspicuous). They, however, are indifferent to brand conspicuousness among a lower-class audience.Practical implicationsTo deter counterfeit consumption, anti-counterfeiting campaigns must invoke consumers’ tendency to overestimate the degree of public attention. Ad appeals must accentuate the anticipation of embarrassment by enhancing self-consciousness through a higher-class audience involving a conspicuous brand.Originality/valueThis paper makes a novel contribution to counterfeiting literature by demonstrating that counterfeit luxury consumption is driven by countervailing motives of gaining approval and avoiding disapproval. The paper departs from mainstream theorizing by demonstrating that counterfeit luxury buyers engage in a protective self-presentation style by choosing inconspicuous counterfeits.

When the influencer says jump! How influencer signaling affects engagement with COVID-19 misinformation

With signaling theory, credibility, and social media engagement (SME) as guiding frameworks, this study used an experiment to examine how social media influencers (SMIs) affect how people engage with COVID-19 misinformation. SMI-promoted information elicited more SME, credibility, and purchase likelihood than non-SMI promoted information. The most effective message was a post promoted by an SMI that contained detailed information about an authentic product. However, data indicated nuance regarding the effect of SMIs. The authenticity of the information as well as the amount of detail in the post played a role. Additionally, mediated effects analysis showed that the impact of SME on purchase likelihood was higher among non-SMI followers. Data suggests that using a multi-signal messaging approach is suitable regardless of promotion by an SMI. This has important implications to public health messaging and the author discusses how health agencies may effectively signal information to the public.

Pleasure of paying when using mobile payment: Evidence from EEG studies.

Mobile payment has emerged as a popular payment method in many countries. While much research has focused on the antecedents of mobile payment adoption, limited research has investigated the consequences of mobile payment usage relating to how it would influence consumer behaviors (e.g., purchase intention or willingness to pay). Here, we propose that mobile payment not just reduces the "pain of paying," a traditional view explaining why cashless payment stimulates spending, but it also evokes the "pleasure of paying," raising from the enhanced processing fluency in completing transactions. We tested this new conceptualization of "pleasure of paying" using EEG, complementing other behavioral measures. In two studies, we found that mobile payment effectively enhanced purchase likelihood (study 1, N = 66) and such an enhancement is generalizable to both hedonic and utilitarian products (study 2, N = 29). By employing EEG measures, we provided the first neural evidence of "pleasure of paying" in addition to the signal of "pain of paying." Critically, we demonstrated that the "pleasure of paying" is a distinctive psychological mechanism that is induced by mobile payment usage and that the "pleasure of paying" joins the "pain of paying" to mediate the increased purchase intention. We discuss the contributions and implications of these results to the ongoing evolution of cashless payment societies.

Does Supplementary Information Add Value to Functional Food? Evidence from a Choice Experiment in China.

Establishing an effective choice architecture system enables people to improve their ability to make better food choices and encourage transformation of the food system into one that is more efficient, healthy, and sustainable. However, affecting consumer preferences by improving information supply is still a crucial issue that has not been comprehensively explored in China and many developing countries. This study aimed to identify the most effective information treatment method for increasing the likelihood of purchase and willingness to pay (WTP) for nutritionally enhanced eggs. A survey with five information treatments and a choice experiment was completed by a random sample of 2379 Chinese consumers, and the mixed logit model was subsequently applied to interpret the results. It was found that when nutritional information (NI), health benefit information (HBI), and/or market status quo information (MSQ) was presented to consumers, their utility increased. Different schemes had different effects on participants’ WTP. The HBI from scientific research institution, provided in the form of leaflets, has the most significant effect on improving WTP, increasing the WTP of consumers by 31.65%. WTP for functional eggs increased similarly in response to NI and MSQ information. However, adding NI to HBI did not significantly increase the value of functional eggs, especially when the information was presented to the interviewees in the form of short videos. This research broadens the present knowledge and application of an information communication strategy by suggesting that the combination of information content, carriers, source influence consumer preference and WTP for nutritionally enhanced eggs. The results have implications for the communication practices of food enterprises to optimize their marketing strategies and improve product innovation to add more value to the functional food.

The divergent effects of neat food presentation on purchase likelihood: the moderating role of time-related positioning

PurposeUnderpinned by the fit-fluency framework, this research aims to explore the effect of visual entropy (i.e. the neatness or disorder of food presentation) on the likelihood to purchase under different time-related positioning conditions.Design/methodology/approachTwo experiments were conducted with customers who are located in the USA via Amazon Mechanical Turk. Study 1 employed a 2 (visual entropy: neat vs non-neat) × 2 (time-related positioning: traditional vs modern) between-subjects design using four advertisements for a fictitious ice cream brand. Study 2 employed a 2 (visual entropy: neat vs non-neat) × 2 (time-related positioning: traditional vs modern) between-subjects design using four book covers for fruit salad recipes.FindingsThe findings demonstrate low entropy (i.e. neatness) increases purchase likelihood when being paired with modern positioning, whilst high entropy (i.e. non-neat presentation) positively influences the propensity to purchase a traditional product on account of temporal fit. These relationships are mediated by perceived quality and nostalgia.Originality/valueThis research extends the understanding of visual entropy and addresses the inconclusive evidence of the impact of the neatness of product presentation on consumer behavior. The authors elucidate the mechanisms behind which neatness and non-neatness of food presentation affect purchase likelihood when different types of time-related positioning are featured.

Is Repetition Really the Key to Success? The Impact of Ad Repetition and the Power of “Likes” on Facebook

In today’s marketplace, social media advertising, such as Facebook ads, are an especially valuable tool for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are often financially volatile due to their limited access to resources, as well as political, economic, and social factors. The purpose of this article is to help SMEs better understand how to develop an advertising strategy on Facebook that is mindful of their time and resources. The findings of this article suggest that social media ad frequency, specifically on Facebook, leads to website visits, and social media engagement metrics (i.e., post shares and comments) can strengthen this relationship. Website visits, in turn, are suggested to increase the likelihood of purchases made during visits, and longer durations of visits can strengthen this relationship. This research contributes to our knowledge of Facebook advertising effects by examining behavioral trace data generated by consumers engaging with SMEs. By examining real-time consumption patterns, this research provides immediate managerial implications that can be employed by SMEs as they develop Facebook marketing plans for the future.

Toward a differentiated understanding of the effect of Nutri‐Score nutrition labeling on healthier food choices

AbstractBy 2022, the European Commission seeks to introduce harmonized, mandatory front‐of‐pack (FOP) nutrition labeling. The color‐graded Nutri‐Score is at the heart of the European debate. Yet, little is known about how the information provided in back‐of‐pack (BOP) nutrition tables interacts with evaluative FOP labels, such as Nutri‐Score, and if different consumer groups use both information cues differently when making food choices. Our objective is thus to identify segments of nutrition label users and contrast their choice behavior and use of FOP and BOP nutritional information. Therefore, this study builds on an attitude‐based segmentation analysis and a survey‐based discrete choice experiment among German consumers. We identify five segments of nutritional information users and significant interaction effects between FOP and BOP nutritional cues. Consumers use supplementary nutritional information differently: relying on BOP nutrition facts only (label‐resisters) or combining both information cues (majority). For most, Nutri‐Score reinforces the positive effect of a healthier nutrient profile on purchase likelihood, while its use stigmatizes products of low nutritional quality. Overall, supplementary Nutri‐Score labeling enables better alignment of food choices and health preferences, especially for consumers overwhelmed by technical BOP nutrition tables, and helps differentiate products with relatively unhealthy nutritional profiles. We discuss implications for food policy and business. [EconLit citations: D12, Q13, Q18].

Quality assurance program provider’s influence on wine purchases among Tennessee and U.S. consumers: a multiple indicators multiple causes model analysis

PurposeThis study aims to provide insights on how different sources of information concerning a quality assurance program (QAP) influence consumers’ wine purchase likelihood, profiles of consumers most likely to use QAPs (demographics, wine consumption and expenditures, wine involvement behaviors) and consumer attitudes toward QAPs.Design/methodology/approachData are from a 2021 survey of 1,191 wine consumers in Tennessee and other US states. A multiple indicators multiple causes model is used to estimate how consumer demographics, wine consumption and expenditure patterns and several wine-involvement measures influence likelihood of using QAPs from eight provider sources when making wine purchase decisions. Sources include university, government, third-party certifiers, wineries and wine associations at the state, regional, national and international levels.FindingsWine consumers have an interest in QAP information when making wine purchase decisions. Not all QAP provider information is used equally, with almost 69% of the sample indicating the use of state wine association QAPs, but less than 44% indicating the use of government agency QAPs or third-party QAPs. Wine consumers’ demographics also influence the use of QAP information. Males, higher income consumers, residing outside of Tennessee and more wine-involved consumers are more likely to use QAPs. Consumers view QAPs as indicators of overall wine quality, ingredient quality and wine consistency rather than necessarily a means of building knowledge about local wines.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to examine not only QAP use from multiple providers but also how demographics, wine consumption, wine expenditures and wine-involvement impact QAP use.

Evaluating key antecedents and consequences of the perceived helpfulness of online consumer reviews: A South African study

This paper explores the relevant antecedents and outcomes of the perceived helpfulness of online consumer reviews (OCRs) among South Africans as an emerging market. The study draws on the dual-process theory of information processing to assess the relative influence of source credibility, product knowledge, social influence, and perceived trust and brand image as the drivers of OCRs helpfulness in explaining consumers’ purchase likelihood. Based on an online survey of 239 South African consumers, and using structural equation modeling, the study found that the perceived helpfulness of OCRs fully mediate the relationship between source credibility and perceived trust to account for purchase intentions. Whereas product knowledge significantly influences OCRs, social influence does not. Importantly, that OCRs helpfulness exerts a moderating effect on brand image, influencing consumers' purchase intentions. Independently, the image of the reviewed brand influences the intention to buy such brands. The paper possesses vital implications for theory and practice.

Heading Up or Stuck Down Here? The Effect of Perceived Economic Mobility on Subjective Social Status and Brand Identification

In this research, we show that the perception of economic mobility plays an important role in individuals’ minds and decisions. While previous literature on economic mobility mainly focused on measuring the degree of mobility and examining its socioeconomic ramifications, we extend prior research by investigating the psychological consequences of economic mobility perception. Through three studies, we propose and demonstrate that those who perceive the economic mobility of their societies to be high (vs. low) tend to perceive their current social status to be higher. We argue that individuals’ hope and the subsequent perception of psychological distance to the upper levels of the socioeconomic ladder serially mediate this relationship. We further show that such perception of economic mobility influence the degree to which individuals identify with high-status brands and their purchase likelihood.

Differential Effects of Device Modalities and Exposure to Online Reviews on Online Purchasing: A Field Study

We model the effect of online information search across mobile (smartphone and tablet) and nonmobile (personal computer [PC], both desktop and laptop) platforms on frequency of purchasing per online shopping session. Using clickstream data from a multinational retailer, we find that device modality drives purchase frequency, likely due to the differential ease of use of PCs, tablets, and smartphones. In particular, frequency of completed orders is highest when information search and purchase completion are highly convenient, such as when shopping via tablet. We also determine that information search in the form of reading online product reviews has no effect on mobile platforms, while it does on other platforms. These findings contribute to information search theory, suggesting that information search increases purchase likelihood when it is goal directed, extensive, and easy to conduct. Thus, the broad role of digital advertising should be to make the information search process easier and more convenient for consumers to stimulate purchases. These findings help digital advertisers understand information search patterns across device modalities. Implications for digital advertisers on electronic commerce (e-commerce) platforms are offered.

Can footwear satisfaction be predicted from mechanical properties?

Research is often conducted to investigate footwear mechanical properties and their effects on running biomechanics, but little is known about their influence on runner satisfaction, or how well the shoe is perceived. A tool to predict runner satisfaction in a shoe from its mechanical properties would be advantageous for footwear companies. Data in this study were from a database (n = 615 subject-shoe pairings) of satisfaction ratings (gathered after participants ran on a treadmill), and mechanical testing data for 87 unique subjects across 61 unique shoes. Random forest and elastic net logistic regression models were built to test if footwear mechanical properties and subject characteristics could predict runner satisfaction in 3 ways: degree-of-satisfaction on a 7-point Likert scale, overall satisfaction on a 3-point Likert scale, and willingness-to-purchase the shoe (yes/no response). Data were divided into training and validation sets, using an 80–20 split, to build the models and test their accuracy, respectively. Model accuracies were compared against the no-information rate (i.e. proportion of data belonging to the largest class). The models were not able to predict degree-of-satisfaction or overall satisfaction from footwear mechanical properties but could predict runner’s willingness to purchase with 68–75% accuracy. Midsole Gmax at the heel and forefoot appeared in the top five of variable importance rankings across both willingness-to-purchase models, suggesting its role as a major factor in purchase decisions. The negative regression coefficient for both heel and forefoot Gmax indicated that softer midsoles increase the likelihood of a shoe purchase. Future models to predict satisfaction may improve accuracy with the addition of more subject-specific parameters, such as running goals or foot proportions.

An Antecedent Study of Mobile Social Game Addiction vs. Virtual Goods Purchase

This study aims to investigate how cognitive antecedents impact on social game addiction and virtual properties purchase among Generation Y players in Malaysia. Using a quantitative method with 341 Generation Y gamers and analysed via structural equation modeling through a two-step analysis approach, the results demonstrate that social game addiction is influenced by enjoyment, play intensity and self-control. The purchase intention of virtual goods is affected by flexibility and play intensity. However, social game addiction has no impact on a gamer’s intentional purchase of virtual items. A player’s income level interacts with the relationship between flexibility and likelihood of virtual property purchase, which could be insightful for gaming publishers and vendors.

The Cost of Free: The Effects of “Wait-for-Free” Pricing Schemes on the Monetization of Serialized Digital Content

Leveraging a combination of analytical frameworks and empirical assessments, this study investigates the effects of wait-for-free (WFF) pricing schemes on the monetization of serialized, digital entertainment content, which has become increasingly pervasive on online platforms. WFF pricing is a strategy in which consumers are given the option to either wait a certain amount of time to acquire digital content at no cost or pay to consume it immediately. We evaluate the extent to which habit formation and present-biased preferences driven by the consumption of addictive stock affect individual consumers’ willingness to wait (or pay) for content, which, in turn, determines the efficacy of WFF pricing. We also examine the conditions under which consumers switch from waiting for free content to instantaneously purchasing content. Our findings indicate that WFF pricing increases the sales of serialized digital content, generating new demand from customers who would otherwise forgo participation in the market. In addition, the pricing design effectively generates sustained profits in the long run. We found that most consumers who initiate a purchase either upon initial market entry or upon switching continue to purchase as new episodes become available. Moreover, the results indicate that as a user accumulates free episodes of a specific series, given extended waiting periods, the likelihood of their conversion from a wait-for-free customer to an instant-purchase customer increases. In particular, WFF pricing effectively augments the willingness to pay of low-valuation consumers as habit formation builds up through time with the free consumption of serialized content. One free episode can elevate the likelihood of consumer purchase by up to 13%. However, as the number of free episodes consumed goes beyond a threshold, the likelihood of conversion decreases. We conclude with a discussion of managerial implications that can help content providers monetize their serialized digital content products.

Revisiting the paradox of whether retail buyers behave more like consumers or industrial purchasers: the case of price discounts

A long-lasting debate in marketing literature is whether retail buyers who purchase consumer products behave like consumers or like industrial purchasing managers. We address this question empirically, by focusing on retail buyers’ behavioral responses to price discounts. Cooperating with a national wholesaler of drugstore products, we conduct a field experiment on the wholesaler’s product ordering platform. We expose the retail buyers (n = 780) to a new product offer that either includes a price discount or not. Simultaneously, we vary peripheral cues included in the offer (package color and organic claim). The results support the “industrial buyer resemblance” argument: The price discount decreases the retail buyers’ purchase likelihood, and there is no significant interaction effect between the price discount and the peripheral cues. An additional qualitative study reveals that retail buyers speculate on the motivations behind the price discount, which elicits suspicions about the product’s quality and resale potential.

The Importance of Sustainability Aspects When Purchasing Online: Comparing Generation X and Generation Z

As research on sustainability orientation across generations is still sparse, we contribute to literature by enriching this research field, focusing on Generation Z (‘Zers’) and X (‘Xers’). Moreover, no other study has analyzed cross-generational differences in the sustainability context by making use of choice experiments, which overcome issues related to (Likert) scale item investigations, and allow respondents to evaluate the trade-off between different purchase factors simultaneously. We thus applied one of the most recent advancements in choice experiments, named Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint analysis, which appears to be more realistic than previous alternatives. The results indicate Zers consume more sustainably (inter alia higher importance of social labels; higher purchase likelihood) when shopping online; however, differences within each generation were uncovered, especially among Xers (e.g., gender differences regarding importance of price).

Are Lower-Strength Beers Gateways to Higher-Strength Beers? Time Series Analyses of Household Purchases from 64,280 British Households, 2015-2018.

AimsBuying and consuming no- (per cent alcohol by volume, ABV = 0.0%) and low- (ABV = >0.0% and ≤ 3.5%) alcohol beers could reduce alcohol consumption but only if they replace buying and drinking higher-strength beers. We assess whether buying new no- and low-alcohol beers increases or decreases British household purchases of same-branded higher strength beers.MethodsGeneralized linear models and interrupted time series analyses, using purchase data of 64,280 British households from Kantar Worldpanel’s household shopping panel, 2015–2018. We investigate the extent to which the launch of six new no- and low-alcohol beers affected the likelihood and volume of purchases of same-branded higher-strength beers.ResultsHouseholds that had never previously bought a same-branded higher-strength beer but bought a new same-branded no- or low-alcohol beer were less than one-third as likely to go on and newly buy the same-branded higher-strength product. When they did later buy the higher-strength product, they bought half as much volume as households that had not bought a new same-branded no- or low-alcohol beer. For households that had previously purchased a higher-strength beer, the introduction of the new same-branded no- or low-alcohol beer was associated with decreased purchases of the volume of the higher-strength beer by, on average, one-fifth.ConclusionsThe increased availability of new no- and low-alcohol beers does not seem to be a gateway to purchasing same-branded higher-strength beers but rather seems to replace purchases of these higher-strength products. Thus, introduction of new no- and low-alcohol beers could contribute to reducing alcohol consumption.

Determinants of purchase likelihood for partially and fully automated vehicles: Insights from mixed logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances

Determining the likelihood of consumers purchasing automated vehicles (AVs) is extremely important for policymakers, researchers, and automobile manufacturers. Successful penetration of AVs into the market depends on the end-user’s perception and their affinity towards these vehicles. In this study, a comprehensive state-wide data has been used to determine the factors affecting the purchase likelihood of AVs. A wide range of potential factors are evaluated, including attributes related to safety and consumer’s perception, socio-economic and demographic factors, carsharing and ridesharing habits, types of housing and parking, types of owned and future vehicles, consumers’ preferences for buying or leasing a vehicle, and their residential region. A random parameters logit model with three outcomes of consumer’s affinity (i.e., agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree) towards purchasing either partially (Levels 3 and 4) or fully (Level 5) AVs is considered. Moreover, to account for different layers of unobserved heterogeneity and to obtain a better statistical fit, the means and variances of random parameters are allowed to vary across the observations. The estimations results reveal significant differences between the determinants of consumer’s affinity towards partially and fully AVs. For partially AVs, the effect of certain variables related to the status of owing hybrid vehicles, education level, parking type, gender, and consumer’s opinion about the future of carsharing and ridesharing programs represented significant degrees of heterogeneity. For fully AVs, however, variables related to education level, parking type, housing type, and ethnicity were found to produce random parameters. The findings from this study can be used to estimate AV penetration and promote AV adoption.

Marketing Specialty Crops: Analyzing Perception and Determinants of Date Fruit Purchase Likelihood

While date fruits provide a good source of fiber, potassium, and antioxidants, demand for dates is lower than for other comparable fruits. Exploring consumers’ perceptions and purchase-related behavior of dates highlights how this tasty and nutritious product could be marketed more effectively. This study, surveying approximately 3,000 U.S. consumers of dried fruits, is the first to provide public findings on date marketing. Developing a conceptual framework, we identify shopping characteristics by accounting for e.g., product cues, socio-demographics, and shopping and consumption habits. Data on perception are analyzed using content analysis, and determinants of date purchase likelihood are investigated via probit models. Results show that consumers’ perceptions of dates are related to taste, texture, and health; consumers prefer the health properties and naturalness of dates. “Trusted Brand” and “Certified USDA Organic” are preferred packaging labels. Concerning usage patterns, consumers mainly use dates for snacking. Findings provide rich implications for successful date marketing.