Likelihood Of Matching Research Articles

Unmatched U.S. Allopathic Seniors in the 2015 Main Residency Match: A Study of Applicant Behavior, Interview Selection, and Match Outcome.

The application and interview behaviors of unmatched U.S. allopathic medical school senior students (U.S. seniors) participating in the 2015 National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) Main Residency Match were studied in conjunction with their United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores and ranking preferences to understand their effects on Match outcome. USMLE Step 1 score and preferred specialty information were reviewed for U.S. seniors who responded to the 2015 NRMP Applicant Survey. Unmatched U.S. seniors were categorized as "strong," "solid," "marginal," or "weak" based on the perceived competitiveness of their Step 1 scores compared with U.S. seniors who matched in the same preferred specialty. The numbers of applications sent, interviews obtained, and programs ranked also were examined by Match outcome. Strong unmatched U.S. seniors submitted significantly more applications to achieve and attend approximately the same number of interviews as strong matched U.S. seniors. Strong unmatched seniors ranked fewer programs than their matched counterparts. As a group, unmatched U.S. seniors were less likely than their matched counterparts to rank a mix of competitive and less competitive programs and more likely to rank programs based on their perceived likelihood of matching. A small number of unmatched U.S. seniors would have matched if they had ranked programs that ranked them. U.S. seniors' Match outcomes may be affected by applicant characteristics that negatively influence their selection for interviews, and their difficulties may be exacerbated by disadvantageous ranking behaviors.

The Case for High Resolution Extended 6-Loci HLA Typing for Identifying Related Donors in the Indian Subcontinent

Three-loci low-resolution (LR) or intermediate-resolution HLA typing is generally considered adequate in the related blood and marrow transplantation (BMT) context. However, a single high-resolution (HR) mismatch may have a similar adverse impact on BMT outcome as an LR one. We sought to determine the frequency of mismatches that may go undetected when standard typing (LR or 3-loci HR) is used compared with 6-loci HR typing for related donor compatibility testing, and to assess its impact on relevant BMT outcomes. We analyzed data from a total of 2554 6-loci (HLA-A, -B, -C, -DRB1, -DQB1, and -DPB1) HR sequence-based typing (full typing [FT]) from 754 patients, 1011 siblings, and 789 parents done at DKMS Germany (www.DKMS.de) between January 1, 2014, and June 21, 2016. We also studied 38 cases in which the family had undergone 3-loci HLA typing (standard typing [ST]). Patients were from India (70%), Pakistan (22%), and Sri Lanka (8%). The IMGT/HLA database (www.ebi.ac.uk/ipd/imgt/hla) was used to tease out nonpermissive DPB1 mismatches. HLA disparity–related outcomes, such as rejection and graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were assessed in a retrospective matched-pair cohort of 50 patients (25 with ST and 25 with FT) who underwent BMT for severe thalassemia from compatible related donors. We found fully matched (either 12/12 HR matches or with a single permissive DPB1 mismatch) related donors for 285 patients (38%). Of these donors, 89% were siblings and 11% were parents. The likelihood of matching on an individual locus on LR but not on HR was found to be 5%. A total of 9 donors (3%; 7 siblings and 2 parents) who would have been considered a full match by HR typing on A, B, and DRB1 alone were not a match by extended 6-loci HR typing. Five of these 9 donors had a mismatch on C or DQB1, and 4 had a nonpermissive DPB1 mismatch. In this group, 5 donors (56%) belonged to a consanguineous family, in 2 donors (22%) there was no reported consanguinity, and in 2 donors (22%) consanguinity was unknown. We identified 18 donors (6%; 13 siblings and 5 parents) who would have been considered a 12/12 match by LR HLA typing alone but were found not to match on extended HR typing. In this group, 11 donors (61%) were from consanguineous families, 3 donors (17%) had no reported consanguinity, and in 4 donors (22%) consanguinity was unknown. Outcome analysis showed that the actuarial proportion of patients with GVHD was 4% in the FT group compared with 16% in the ST group, with log-rank P = .1952. The ST group included 2 patients with grade III-IV acute GVHD and 1 patient each with moderate and severe chronic GVHD, whereas the FT group only 1 patient with grade III acute GVHD. We conclude that even in the context of related donors, the use of LR and/or 3-loci (A, B, and DRB1) HR HLA typing might result in a sizable risk of missing a clinically relevant mismatch, which may have an adverse impact on transplantation outcomes. In the Indian subcontinent, this observation is not limited to putatively compatible parents or consanguineous families; we recommend full 6-loci HR HLA typing even for matched related BMTs.

MULTIPLE TARGET TRACKING USING COST MINIMIZATION TECHNIQUES

Many applications such as intelligent transportation, video surveillance, robotics of computer vision mainly depend on task of multiple target tracking. It consists of process of detection, classifications and tracking. In this novel approach of multi target tracking, cost terms are formulated to attain the global optimization which includes the entire representation of the issues such as target tracking, operational representation, collision handling and trajectory processing. Furthermore, two optimization strategies such as the gradient descent which is performed on multiple feature space to obtain local minima of a density function from the given sample of data and gradient ascent which is carried out to achieve a likelihood matching of the target and used to handle the partial evidence of the image, and also uncertainty of the various targets are minimized. . In this study, the proposed works are tested on different publicly available datasets using the metric evaluation and also compared with the various methods based on issues of target tracking. This study will also provide a better understanding of the problem, knowledge of the methods, and experimental evaluation skill for further research works.

Orthopaedic Surgery Residency: Perspectives of Applicants and Program Directors on Medical Student Away Rotations.

Senior medical students frequently rotate at orthopaedic residency programs away from their home medical schools. However, to our knowledge, the perspective of program directors (PDs) and applicants on the value, objectives, and costs of these rotations has not been studied. Surveys evaluating the frequency, costs, benefits, and objectives of away rotations were distributed to all orthopaedic residency PDs in the United States and applicants in the 2014-2015 Match cycle. Data analysis was conducted to perform inferential and descriptive statistics; comparisons were made between and among PD and applicant groups using two-tailed means Student t-test and analysis of variance. A total of 74 PD (46.0%) and 524 applicant (49.3%) responses were obtained from a national distribution. Applicants completed an average of 2.4 away rotations, with an average cost of $2,799. When stratified on self-reported likelihood of Matching, there were no substantial differences in the total number of rotations performed. The only marked differences between these groups were the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 score and the number of applications to residency programs. PDs reported that significantly fewer rotations should be allowed, whereas applicants suggested higher limits (2.42 rotations versus 6.24, P < 0.001). PDs and applicants had similar perspectives on the value of away rotations; both groups reported more value in finding a "good fit" and making a good impression at the program and placed less value on the educational impact. The value of orthopaedic away rotations appears more utilitarian than educational for both PDs and applicants. Rotations are performed regardless of perceived likelihood of Matching and are used by students and programs to identify a "good fit." Therefore, given the portion of an academic year that is spent on orthopaedic rotations, findings showing perceived low educational value and marked discrepancies between the expected number of rotations by PDs and applicants indicate that the current structure of away rotations may not be well aligned with the mission of undergraduate medical education. V.

Global Energy Minimization and Optimization of Multi-Target Tracking

The recent multiple target tracking methods aim to obtain the best possible number of trajectories within the time frame, and few constraints have been set to handle the wide area of trajectories by discrete mapping. In this novel approach of multi target tracking, energy terms are formulated to attain the global optimization which includes the entire representation of the issues such as target tracking, operational representation, collision handling and trajectory processing. Furthermore, two optimization strategies such as the gradient descent which is performed on multiple feature space to obtain local minima of a density function from the given sample of data and gradient ascent which is carried out to achieve a likelihood matching of the target and used to handle the partial evidence of the image, and also uncertainty of the various targets are minimized. The experimentation is performed on the openly available dataset and the mean target tracking accuracy and precision is studied to validate the proposed tracking.

Buyer–seller relationships in international trade: Do your neighbors matter?

Using confidential U.S. customs data on trade transactions between U.S. importers and Bangladeshi exporters between 2003 and 2009, and information on the geographic location of Bangladeshi exporters, we show that the presence of neighboring exporters that previously transacted with a U.S. importer is associated with a greater likelihood of matching with the same U.S. importer for the first time. This suggests a role for neighbors in generating importer–exporter matches. Our research design permits us to isolate potential gains from neighborhood exporter presence that are partner-specific, from overall gains previously documented in the literature.

Student Characteristics Associated with Successful Matching to a PGY1 Residency Program

Objective. To identify predictors for postgraduate matching success. Methods. In April 2014, a survey was distributed to students at five schools of pharmacy in the United States assessing organizational involvement, research and work experience, postgraduation plans, match status, and demographics. Results. Five hundred seventy-seven students (82%) completed the survey. Applicants who matched had a higher median number of interview offers compared to those who did not match. Significantly more females than males applied for a residency program. Those who matched had a higher median pharmacy school grade point average (GPA) compared to those who did not. No differences were observed in the rates of matching when leadership positions, student organizational membership, or previous work experience were considered. Conclusion. For pharmacy students in this study, number of applications and interviews, pharmacy school GPA, and female gender were associated with a higher likelihood of matching.

SU‐F‐T‐102: Automatic Curation for a Scalable Registry Using Machine Learning

Purpose:growing partnership and contributors to registry efforts an efficient way to perform data integration, de‐duplication, and cleansing, amongst other tasks. This project aims to develop an automatic curation module to discover, clean, and transform new data, and semantically integrate them with the composite hosting registry upon de‐duplication.Methods:We have investigated various similarity metrics for various attributes and value types in the registry. More specifically, cosine word similarity, cosine term frequency‐inverse document frequency, cosine trigram similarity are used to measure similarity between free text fields; Jaccard similarity and histogram matching are used for categorical values, Naive Bayesian probability in combination with Welch's t‐test values are used to measure likelihood of matching for numerical fields. A supervised learning framework is then adopted where these similarity values are used as input to regress out a decision of amongst {“automatic aggregation with high confidence”, “no match (hence expand current registry)”, and “likely match upon confirmation”}. Multi‐class logistic regression, and classification and regression tree (CART) techniques were used. Seven previous rolling versions of the registry with variations in terminology and data duration were used in a cross‐validation setting to test the applicability of the proposed approach.Results:Initial results showed that automatic curation can properly label more than 80% of the label and data fields, significantly alleviating the burden of human operator and the risk of human error. The major limitation of the current approach is ambiguity, e.g., an input tag “MRI” yields multiple potential match. We are investigating the incorporation of context knowledge to reduce such ambiguity to facilitate both automatic curation and human confirmation.Conclusion:(Semi‐)automatic curation provides a sustainable pathway to integrate data both longitudinally and across multiple institutions and data sources. Our preliminary effort has demonstrated the feasibility and potential efficacy of utilizing machine learning techniques for such purposes.This work is supported in part by a Varian research grant.

Applying to Integrated Plastic Surgery Residency Programs: Trends in the Past 5 Years of the Match.

The average integrated plastic surgery applicant spends over $6000 for interviews. The average program director reviews over 200 applications per cycle. It is important to make the application process efficient and cost effective for both applicants and programs. The authors analyzed recent trends and the literature in an attempt to increase the likelihood that applicants match, suggest means of reducing applicants' costs, and improve the process. A cross-sectional study of the National Residency Matching Program Charting Outcomes and results and data for the years 2009 to 2014 was performed. Applicant profile elements were examined for differences between matched/unmatched U.S. senior medical students. In addition, a literature review was performed. The number of integrated plastic surgery positions rose from 69 in 2010 to 130 in 2014. Both matched and unmatched U.S. senior medical students have higher Step 2 scores, research and volunteer experiences, than 5 years ago. The likelihood of matching into an integrated plastic surgery residency has increased (2009, 52 percent; 2011, 44 percent; and 2014, 71 percent). Successful match rates were associated with Alpha Omega Alpha status and graduating from a top-40 ranked medical school (p < 0.05). Applicants with a lower number of ranked programs had increased match rates in 2014 than in previous years. Literature review revealed that program directors also value strong recommendation letters, publications, persistent work ethic ("grit"), away rotations, and an accurate curriculum vitae. Within the setting of increased applicant competitiveness, the authors recommend maximizing subjective qualities in order to differentiate themselves from a highly eligible applicant pool. In addition, applicants should diversify the types of programs at which they interview to maximize their chances of matching.

University Licensing and the Flow of Scientific Knowledge

As university involvement in technology transfer and entrepreneurship has increased, concerns over the patenting and licensing of scientific discoveries have grown. This paper examines the effect that the licensing of academic patents has on journal citations to academic publications covering the same scientific research. We analyze data on invention disclosures, patents, and licenses from the University of California, a leading U.S. academic patenter and licensor, between 1997 and 2007. We also develop a novel “inventor–based” maximum–likelihood matching technique to automate and generalize Murray’s (2002) “patent–paper pairs” methodology. We use this methodology to identify the scientific publications associated with University of California patents and licenses.Based on a “difference–in–differences” analysis, we find that for patented academic discoveries in general, licensing appears to have little effect on journal citations to related scientific publications. When we examine the subset of discoveries that are not inputs to further research, however, licensing has a positive effect on journal citations to related scientific publications, suggesting that the successful negotiation of a license may demonstrate that a particular area of research has scientific value. In contrast, we find that licensing of research inputs (which we identify through the use of material transfer agreements, or MTAs) depresses citations to related scientific publications, raising the possibility that licensing may restrict the flow of inputs to “follow–on” scientific research.

The Possible Antecedents and Consequences of Matching of Food Intake: Examining the Role of Trait Self-Esteem and Interpersonal Closeness.

Although there is evidence that people tend to match their intake to that of others, less is known about the motives underlying this effect. The current study, therefore, examined the relationship between self-esteem, a specific factor that has been related to the likelihood of social matching. Further, we examined the effects of food matching on interpersonal closeness among eating companions. The sample included 89 female dyads. All dyads had free access to palatable snack food during a 15 min interaction. For each dyad the matching score was calculated, as well as both individual's trait self-esteem scores and interpersonal closeness with their eating partner. The overall degree of matching within dyads was high, replicating the findings of previous research. No relationship, however, was found between trait self-esteem and the degree of matching. Furthermore, there was no effect of matching on perceived interpersonal closeness with or liking of the other person. These results suggest that self-esteem might not be a robust predictor of matching and that matching of food intake may not result in increased perceived interpersonal closeness or liking among eating partners.

Understanding the Interview and Ranking Behaviors of Unmatched International Medical Students and Graduates in the 2013 Main Residency Match.

Over the past decade, the number of unfilled positions in the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) Main Residency Match has declined by one-third, while the number of unmatched applicants has grown by more than 50%, largely due to a rise in the number of international medical school students and graduates (IMGs). Although only half of IMG participants historically have matched to a first-year position, the Match experiences of unmatched IMGs have not been studied. We examined differences in interview and ranking behaviors between matched and unmatched IMGs participating in the 2013 Match and explored strategic errors made by unmatched IMGs when creating rank order lists. Rank order lists of IMGs who failed to match were analyzed in conjunction with their United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 1 scores and responses on the 2013 NRMP Applicant Survey. IMGs were categorized as "strong," "solid," "marginal," or "weak" based on the perceived competitiveness of their USMLE Step 1 scores compared to other IMG applicants who matched in the same specialty. We examined ranking preferences and strategies by Match outcome. Most unmatched IMGs were categorized as "marginal" or "weak". However, unmatched IMGs who were non-US citizens presented more competitive USMLE Step 1 scores compared to unmatched IMGs who were US citizens. Unmatched IMGs were more likely than matched IMGs to rank programs at which they did not interview and to rank programs based on their perceived likelihood of matching. The interview and ranking behaviors of IMGs can have far-reaching consequences on their Match experience and outcomes.

Going "Fourth" From Medical School: Fourth-Year Medical Students' Perspectives on the Fourth Year of Medical School.

To learn what graduating medical students considered the primary purposes of the fourth year of medical school, their approach to residency selection, and the challenges they faced in meeting their fourth-year goals. A 52-question Web-based survey was administered to fourth-year students from 20 U.S. MD-granting medical schools in spring 2014. Quantitative data were analyzed with one-way analysis of variance, chi-square analysis, or paired t tests. Responses to an open-ended question were coded into themes and confirmed. A total of 1,367/2,884 (47.4%) students responded. Students applied to a mean of 36.4 (SD = 22.6) residency programs and interviewed at a mean of 12.3 (SD = 5.6) programs. Surgery applicants applied to more programs (mean = 58.2, SD = 22.3; P < .001); radiology applicants interviewed at more programs (mean = 16.9, SD = 8.5; P < .001). Students took a mean of 1.8 (SD = 0.8) monthlong away electives in their career specialty of choice; surgery and emergency medicine applicants were more likely to complete away electives (P < .001). Students agreed the fourth year has multiple valuable purposes, including maximizing the likelihood of matching into their residency of choice, gaining a broad educational experience, and preparing for residency. The main purpose varied by specialty, but overall students ranked preparing for residency highest. Completing away electives and interviewing were expensive; approximately 35% of students could not complete away electives because of financial constraints. Medical students view the fourth year as a time for residency selection and preparation.

Unlikely identification of an 8/8 OR 10/10 matched donor for patients with uncommon haplotypes

Aim Despite over 6 million subjects contributing to the NMDP HLA haplotype frequency reference data (HFD), haplotypes cannot be predicted from the HLA assignments of some patients searching for an unrelated donor (URD) in the Be The Match Registry®. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of these patient searches and whether patient haplotypes lacking from the HFD can be found among the low-resolution typed URD pool. Methods From March 2014–2015, USA transplant centers submitting new NMDP searches with uncommon patient haplotypes (UPH), defined as a lack of haplotype pairs in any single race group in the HFD based upon HLA-A–C–B–DRB1–DQB1, were identified. Laboratory verification of patients’ HLA assignments was requested. Up to 20 USA based NMDP potential 10/10 or 8/8 donors were typed per patient to determine the likelihood of an allele match. Results The incidence of patient searches without pairs in a single race group in the HFD was 1.2% (144 of 12172 preliminary searches). Of the 144 patients, 27 had two haplotypes projected in disparate race tables, while 117 (81%) had at least one uncommon haplotype previously uncharacterized in the HFD. Non-White patients had the highest incidence of UPH. No patients with UPH had a 10/10 donor identified. Five patients, all with uncommon DRB1–DQB1 associations, had 8/8 donors identified (i.e., DQ mismatched). Conclusions HLA HFD that supports the HapLogic? matching algorithm is comprehensive as UPH patient searches were infrequent. Since these patients are unlikely to have a fully 10/10 matched donor identified, alternative stem cell sources including cord blood or a mismatched URD should be identified early in the search process. Many instances of typing corrections after initial HLA entry emphasize the importance of verifying the unique HLA assignments of these patients. UPH patients with haplotypes identified in disparate race groups but no pairs in a single race group highlights the need to better characterize patient HLA and mixed race/ethnicity for URD searching. Download : Download full-size image

Wanted: Prospective Studies of Alternative Donors

Wanted: Prospective Studies of Alternative Donors

Origins of an Unmarked Georgia Cemetery Using Ancient DNA Analysis.

Determining the origins of those buried within undocumented cemeteries is of incredible importance to historical archaeologists and, in many cases, the nearby communities. In the case of Avondale Burial Place, a cemetery in Bibb County, Georgia, in use from 1820 to 1950, all written documentation of those interred within it has been lost. Osteological and archaeological evidence alone could not describe, with confidence, the ancestral origins of the 101 individuals buried there. In the present study, we used ancient DNA extraction methods in well-preserved skeletal fragments from 20 individuals buried in Avondale Burial Place to investigate the origins of the cemetery. Through examination of hypervariable region I (HVR1) in the mitochondrial genome (mtDNA), we determined haplotypes for all 20 of these individuals. Eighteen of these individuals belong to the L or U haplogroups, suggesting that Avondale Burial Place was most likely used primarily as a resting place for African Americans. After the surrounding Bibb County community expressed interest in investigating potential ancestral relationships to those within the cemetery, eight potential descendants provided saliva to obtain mtDNA HVR1 information. Three individuals from Avondale Burial Place matched three individuals with oral history ties to the cemetery. Using the online tool EMPOP, we calculated the likelihood of these exact matches occurring by chance alone (< 1%). The present findings exhibit the importance of genetic analysis of cemetery origins when archaeological and osteological data are inconclusive for estimating ancestry of anonymous historical individuals.

Supplemental Material for Lay Understanding of Forensic Statistics: Evaluation of Random Match Probabilities, Likelihood Ratios, and Verbal Equivalents

Supplemental Material for Lay Understanding of Forensic Statistics: Evaluation of Random Match Probabilities, Likelihood Ratios, and Verbal Equivalents

The RESET tephra database and associated analytical tools

An open-access database has been set up to support the research project studying the ‘Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions’ (RESET). The main methodology underlying this project was to use tephra layers to tie together and synchronise the chronologies of stratigraphic records at archaeological and environmental sites. The database has information on occurrences, and chemical compositions, of glass shards from tephra and cryptotephra deposits found across Europe. The data includes both information from the RESET project itself and from the published literature. With over 12,000 major element analyses and over 3000 trace element analyses on glass shards, relevant to 80 late Quaternary eruptions, the RESET project has generated an important archive of data. When added to the published information, the database described here has a total of more than 22,000 major element analyses and nearly 4000 trace element analyses on glass from over 240 eruptions.In addition to the database and its associated data, new methods of data analysis for assessing correlations have been developed as part of the project. In particular an approach using multi-dimensional kernel density estimates to evaluate the likelihood of tephra compositions matching is described here and tested on data generated as part of the RESET project.

Agglomeration and job matching among college graduates

We examine job matching as a potential source of urban agglomeration economies. Focusing on college graduates, we construct two direct measures of job matching based on how well an individual's job corresponds to their college education. Consistent with matching-based theories of urban agglomeration, we find evidence that larger and thicker local labor markets increase both the likelihood and quality of a job match for college graduates. We then assess the extent to which better job matching of college-educated workers increases individual-level wages and thereby contributes to the urban wage premium. We find that college graduates with better job matches do indeed earn higher wages on average, though the contribution of such job matching to aggregate urban productivity appears to be relatively modest.

Estimating individual promotional campaign impacts through Bayesian inference

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to estimate individual promotional campaign impacts through Bayesian inference. Conventional statistics have worked well for analyzing the impact of direct marketing promotions on purchase behavior. However, many modern marketing programs must drive multiple purchase objectives, requiring more precise arbitration between multiple offers and collection of more data with which to differentiate individuals. This often results in datasets that are highly dimensional, yet also sparse, straining the power of statistical methods to properly estimate the effect of promotional treatments. Design/methodology/approach – Improvements in computing power have enabled new techniques for predicting individual behavior. This work investigates a probabilistic machine-learned Bayesian approach to predict individual impacts driven by promotional campaign offers for a leading global travel and hospitality chain. Comparisons were made to a linear regression, representative of the current state of practice. Findings – The findings of this work focus on comparing a machine-learned Bayesian approach with linear regression (which is representative of the current state of practice among industry practitioners) in the analysis of a promotional campaign across three key areas: highly dimensional data, sparse data and likelihood matching. Research limitations/implications – Because the findings are based on a single campaign, future work includes generalizing results across multiple promotional campaigns. Also of interest for future work are comparisons of the technique developed here with other techniques from academia. Practical implications – Because the Bayesian approach allows estimation of the influence of the promotion for each hypothetical customer’s set of promotional attributes, even when no exact look-alikes exist in the control group, a number of possible applications exist. These include optimal campaign design (given the ability to estimate the promotional attributes that are likely to drive the greatest incremental spend in a hypothetical deployment) and operationalizing efficient audience selection given the model’s individualized estimates, reducing the risk of marketing overcommunication, which can prompt costly unsubscriptions. Originality/value – The original contribution is the application of machine-learning to Bayesian Belief Network construction in the context of analyzing a multi-channel promotional campaign’s impact on individual customers. This is of value to practitioners seeking alternatives for campaign analysis for applications in which more commonly used models are not well-suited, such as the three key areas that this paper highlights: highly dimensional data, sparse data and likelihood matching.