Likelihood Of Extreme Weather Events Research Articles

Spatial and temporal evolution of heatwaves in Taiwan in a changing climate using multi-dimensional complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Recent decades have witnessed noticeable warming in highly developed cities. Taiwan, a densely populated island characterized by its monsoon-dominated climate and unique mountainous topography, has experienced an average temperature increase of 1.0–1.4 °C in the last century, significantly exceeding the global average. This research introduces the Multi-dimensional Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MCEEMD) algorithm, providing a novel approach for analyzing gridded climate data and uncovering spatiotemporal temperature patterns in Taiwan. This methodology offers valuable insights into the localized impacts of climate change. The spatiotemporal evolution of temperature from 1960 to 2020 is analyzed to estimate the warming trend associated with climate change. Essential factors related to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which leads to temperature disparities between urban and rural areas, are also examined. Warming and the UHI effect are critical components of climate change, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in urban areas. The study investigates extreme weather events from 1960 to 2020, focusing on heatwaves. It projects changes in the frequency and duration of heatwaves for the mid (2046–2065) and late 21st century (2081–2100). Notably, Taipei experienced a warming trend exceeding 1.5°C in the 2010s, which was likely influenced by urbanization. Additionally, areas experiencing the sharpest increase in heatwave events (more than 1.5 events) by 2000 were predominantly in highly developed cities across northern and southern Taiwan. Further analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario suggests that, by the end of the 21st century, heatwave events could last for at least 20 days in many regions, with the potential to extend to nearly a month during the summer.

Strengthening the three-dimensional comprehensive observation system of multi-layer interaction on the Tibetan Plateau to cope with the warming and wetting trend

Changes in the water cycle on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have a significant impact on local agricultural production and livelihoods and its downstream regions. Against the background of widely reported warming and wetting, the hydrological cycle has accelerated and the likelihood of extreme weather events and natural disasters occurring (i.e., snowstorms, floods, landslides, mudslides, and ice avalanches) has also intensified, especially in the high-elevation mountainous regions. Thus, an accurate estimation of the intensity and variation of each component of the water cycle is an urgent scientific question for the assessment of plateau environmental changes. Following the transformation and movement of water between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere, the authors highlight the urgent need to strengthen the three-dimensional comprehensive observation system (including the eddy covariance system; planetary boundary layer tower; profile measurements of temperature, humidity, and wind by microwave radiometers, wind profiler, and radiosonde system; and cloud and precipitation radars) in the TP region and propose a practical implementation plan. The construction of such a three-dimensional observation system is expected to promote the study of environmental changes and natural hazards prevention.摘要青藏高原的水循环变化对于高原及其下游区域人类的生产生活具有举足轻重的影响. 在高原暖湿化的背景下, 其水文循环加快, 极端天气和自然灾害事件概率增大, 比如, 雪灾, 洪水, 滑坡, 泥石流, 冰崩在山区频发. 因此, 如何准确的估算青藏高原水循环各分量的大小及变化幅度是评估高原环境变化影响亟需解决的科学问题. 根据水在各圈层间转换过程, 我们提出了建立第三极地区 (尤其是复杂山区) 的三维立体多圈层地气相互作用综合观测系统(包括涡动相关系统, 行星边界层塔, 微波辐射计, 风廓线仪和无线电探空系统观测的风温湿廓线及云雨雷达等)的紧迫性和具体方案, 进而为研究青藏高原环境变化和山区灾害预测服务.

Genetic and Molecular Mechanisms Conferring Heat Stress Tolerance in Tomato Plants.

Climate change is a major threat to global food security. Changes in climate can directly impact food systems by reducing the production and genetic diversity of crops and their wild relatives, thereby restricting future options for breeding improved varieties and reducing the ability to adapt crops to future challenges. The global surface temperature is predicted to rise by an average of 0.3°C during the next decade, and the Paris Agreement (Paris Climate Accords) aims to limit global warming to below an average of 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Even if the goal of the Paris Agreement can be met, the predicted rise in temperatures will increase the likelihood of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, making heat stress (HS) a major global abiotic stress factor for many crops. HS can have adverse effects on plant morphology, physiology, and biochemistry during all stages of vegetative and reproductive development. In fruiting vegetables, even moderate HS reduces fruit set and yields, and high temperatures may result in poor fruit quality. In this review, we emphasize the effects of abiotic stress, especially at high temperatures, on crop plants, such as tomatoes, touching upon key processes determining plant growth and yield. Specifically, we investigated the molecular mechanisms involved in HS tolerance and the challenges of developing heat-tolerant tomato varieties. Finally, we discuss a strategy for effectively improving the heat tolerance of vegetable crops.

Exploring Sources of Surface Bias in HRRR Using New York State Mesonet

AbstractIn recent years, there has been increasing demand for applications of short‐term forecasting of renewable energy potential and assessments of the likelihood of extreme weather events using the High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Examining the biases in the newest version of HRRR is necessary to promote further model development. Using data from one of the most comprehensive and dense monitoring networks, New York State Mesonet (NYSM), we evaluate the HRRR version 3 meteorological fields for an entire year. In this work, the land‐atmosphere‐cloud coupling system is evaluated as an integrated whole. We investigate the physical processes influencing the soil hydrological balance and the thermodynamic interactions, from surface fluxes up to the level of boundary layer convection from both temporal (seasonal and diurnal) and spatial perspectives. Results show that the model 2 m temperature and humidity biases are seasonally dependent, with warm and dry bias present during the warm season, and an extreme nocturnal cold bias in winter. The summer warm bias includes both a land‐surface‐induced bias and a cloud‐induced bias. Inaccurate representation of energy partition and soil hydrological process across different land use types as well as a hydrological bias in describing spring snowmelt are identified as the main source of the land‐surface‐induced bias. A feedback loop linking cloud presence, flux changes, and temperature contributes to the cloud‐induced bias. The positive solar radiation bias increases from clear sky to overcast sky conditions. The most significant bias occurs during overcast and thick cloud conditions associated with frontal passage and thunderstorms.

Effect of Foliar Applied Acetylsalicilic Acid on Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under Field Conditions

The exogenous application of salicylic acid prevents plant damage caused by various abiotic stresses (drought, high and low temperatures, salinity) and helps plants to build resistance to biotic stresses (pathogens). Acetylsalicylic acid, which is a synthetic salicylic acid derivative, has the same properties. In the face of climate change and a greater likelihood of extreme weather events, the use of these acids can significantly help to ensure proper growth and development of plants, especially sensitive species, even under stress conditions. The problem, however, is choosing the right dose (concentration) and time of application, and individual species sensitivity. The aim of the study was to assess the effect of acetylsalicylic acid on the growth and yield parameters of spring wheat. A field trial was carried out in 2013 and 2014 at the Institute of Plant Protection—National Research Institute in Poznan (Poland). The experiment was established on spring wheat cv. ‘Tybalt’, in four replications. Acetylsalicylic acid was tested in two concentrations: 0.3 and 0.5 mM. Each concentration was applied to the crop twice at growth stage BBCH 29 (end of tillering) and 7 days afterwards, and at growth stage BBCH 37 (flag leaf just visible) and 7 days afterwards. The study evaluated 12 traits of the crop, including plant height, chlorophyll content in the flag leaf, length of the ear, and quality and quantity parameters of the yield. The study showed that both the selection of the appropriate concentration and the time of acetylsalicylic acid application have a significant impact on the growth and development of the wheat. The acetylsalicylic acid increased the amount of chlorophyll in the leaves, the number of grains in the ear, the mass of a thousand grains, and grain yield. The present study did not confirm significant differences between the acetylsalicylic acid concentrations. The concentration of 0.5 mM proved more effective only for such traits as plant height and protein content in the grain. The study showed that it is not the concentration but the time of acetylsalicylic acid application that is more important for the growth of the wheat. Although there were no significant differences between the effects of earlier and later application time on plant height or chlorophyll content, most of the structural and qualitative parameters of the yield (number of grains in the ear, grain density, grain hardness, protein, gluten and starch content) were better after later application of acetylsalicylic acid (GS BBCH 37).

Sustainable urban water management and integrated development in informal settlements: The contested politics of co-production in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Abstract Given the implications of global climate change, including higher likelihood of extreme weather events, and the increasing urban density coupled with reduction in permeable surfaces in the Global South, Sustainable Urban Water Management (SUWM) has emerged as a preferred paradigm for stormwater management. However, the implementation of SUWM, which is premised on using vegetation or engineered capture technologies to control runoff at its source in an effort to replicate natural hydrology, is limited by a lack of institutional integration, not merely between administrative organs with responsibility for stormwater management but also between infrastructure departments, planning institutions, communities, and civil society organizations. This is particularly true in informal settlements in the humid tropics, where excessive impermeable surfaces and a lack of adequate solid waste collection exacerbate municipal limitations in stormwater management. This article discusses an effort to integrate local communities, civil society organizations, and local and regional authorities to improve drainage services within the framework of integrated development in the informal settlement of Los Platanitos, Santo Domingo Norte, Dominican Republic. In order to address the drainage and flooding issues in Los Platanitos while also fostering economic development, representatives of community groups, NGOs, local government, and state agencies have developed a participatory planning structure known as a mesa de concertacion, or “cooperating table.” The mesa, which was established in 2014, has succeeded in bringing neighborhood, civil society, and government actors to the same “table” as a mechanism for addressing the community’s drainage challenges within the broader context of integrated community development.

Crop season planning tool: Adjusting sowing decisions to reduce the risk of extreme weather events

Frost, extreme high temperatures, dry spells, and other weather extremes influence crop development, often causing major variations in yield from one season to the next. Selected growth stages such as flowering and grain filling are particularly sensitive to temperature and/or precipitation extremes and farmers are often unable to manage this risk. Crop simulation models have matured into powerful tools for identifying strategies in fully utilizing scarce natural resources under variable climate conditions. However, the use of crop models often requires expert knowledge and an extensive number of input datasets. Combining the power of Internet, computing technology, and web-based decision-support tools is becoming increasingly popular in situations where these requirements cannot be met. The objective of this study is to develop a simple decision-support tool that combines freely available information with the functionality of complex crop models in a user friendly interface for real-time assessment of soil, plant, and weather information. The resulting tool is intended to be used ahead of the growing season by producers, and it enables the estimation and minimization of the likelihood of extreme weather events during critical stages of crop development.

Extreme precipitation in the Netherlands: An event attribution case study

Attributing the change in likelihood of extreme weather events, particularly those occurring at small spatiotemporal scales, to anthropogenic forcing is a key challenge in climate science. While a warmer world is associated with an increase in atmospheric moisture on a global scale, the impact on the magnitude of extreme precipitation episodes has substantial regional variability. Analysis of individual cases is important in understanding the extent of these changes on spatial scales relevant to stakeholders. Here, we present a probabilistic attribution analysis of the extreme precipitation that fell in large parts of the Netherlands on 28 July 2014. Using a step-by-step approach, we aim to identify changes in intensity and likelihood of such an event as a result of anthropogenic global warming while highlighting the challenges in performing robust event attribution on high-impact precipitation events that occur at small scales. A method based on extreme value theory is applied to observational data in addition to global and regional climate model ensembles that pass a robust model evaluation process. Results based on observations suggest a strong and significant increase in the intensity and frequency of a 2014-type event as a result of anthropogenic climate change but trends in the model ensembles used are considerably smaller. Our results are communicated alongside considerable uncertainty, highlighting the difficulty in attributing events of this nature. Application of our approach to convection-resolving models may produce a more robust attribution.

The Limits of Operational Excellence in the Seed Industry Under Climate Change

This paper analyzes the optimal production decisions of a seed manufacturer confronted by the increased likelihood of extreme weather events that amplify the volatility of the yield in the seed production process. We model the process as a discrete-time stochastic dynamic optimization problem where, in each period, the manufacturer solves an optimization problem with two stages: The planting stage, where the manufacturer chooses the quantity of hybrid seeds to produce through a network of outsourced farmers, and the allocation stage, where the manufacturer allocates the resulting yield from the planting stage to different markets with varying profit margins. We operationalize the effect of climate change through an increased probability of extreme events. We prove that, as the extreme event probability increases (a) the manufacturer’s expected profits decrease while the optimal planting quantity grows; (b) the expected total yield of the planting stage decreases, reducing the profit of the farmers who work with the manufacturer; (c) the expected allocation quantity to different markets decreases, and this decrease is more significant in low-margin markets. Finally, we present a simulation model calibrated to industry data. We find that even a small increase in the likelihood of extreme weather events can dramatically change optimal production decisions and have significant negative effects on the profitability of commercial seeds, on the availability of seeds in low-margin markets, on the profits obtained by farmers involved in the seed production process and, on the value of postponement strategy.

Resiliency is Key to Effective Disaster Planning

With the likelihood of extreme weather events further increasing, it's more important than ever for water and wastewater utilities to be prepared for threats that could adversely affect operations and reliable service.

Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1) Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of infrastructure? (2) How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are critical infrastructure. Therefore, it remains the state's responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector infrastructure providers can plan and implement climate change adaptation in practice, through the regulatory modes of negotiations and enforced self-regulation.

Evidence of enhanced freezing damage in treeline plants during six years of CO2 enrichment and soil warming

Climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 levels could increase the vulnerability of plants to freezing. We analyzed tissue damage resulting from naturally occurring freezing events in plants from a long–term in situ CO2 enrichment (+ 200 ppm, 2001–2009) and soil warming (+ 4°C since 2007) experiment at treeline in the Swiss Alps (Stillberg, Davos). Summer freezing events caused damage in several abundant subalpine and alpine plant species in four out of six years between 2005 and 2010. Most freezing damage occurred when temperatures dropped below –1.5°C two to three weeks after snow melt. The tree Larix decidua and the dwarf shrubs Vaccinium myrtillus and Empetrum hermaphroditum showed more freezing damage under experimentally elevated CO2 and/or temperatures than under control conditions. Soil warming induced a 50% die‐back of E. hermaphroditum during a single freezing event due to melting of the protective snow cover. Although we could not identify a clear mechanism, we relate greater freezing susceptibility to a combination of advanced plant phenology in spring and changes in plant physiology. The climate record since 1975 at the treeline site indicated a summer warming by 0.58°C/decade and a 3.5 days/decade earlier snow melt, but no significant decrease in freezing events during the vegetation period. Therefore, in a warmer climate with higher CO2 levels but constant likelihood of extreme weather events, subalpine and alpine plants may be more susceptible to freezing events, which may partially offset expected enhanced growth with global change. Hence, freezing damage should be considered when predicting changes in growth of alpine plants or changes in community composition under future atmospheric and climate conditions.