Likelihood Of Arrest Research Articles

The Persistent Impact of Childhood Trauma: Current Mental Health Challenges Faced by Women in Jail

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to understand the relationship between childhood trauma and current mental health status of 110 women incarcerated in a Midwestern jail. The K6 distress scale was used to assess current mental health status. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) scale was utilized to measure traumatic events occurring in childhood. The percentage of women identified as having serious psychological distress exceeded rates found in the extant literature involving criminal justice-involved women. Women reporting more ACEs scored significantly higher on the K6. Additionally, women with higher K6 scores forecast a greater likelihood of arrest post-release, were older, had been in jail fewer times, were in jail for a longer time when interviewed, and were more likely to be mothers of minor children. These findings support the need for gender-responsive treatment and trauma-informed care to address mental health challenges among women in jail.

Understanding Case Outcomes for Male Victims of Forcible Sexual Assaults.

While rape and sexual violence have long been a widespread social problem, and one that has garnered significant attention, research that specifically examines the phenomenon of male victimization of sexual violence remains lacking. Addressing the gaps in the research, the current study uses 10 years of law enforcement data from the United States' National Incident-based Reporting System (2007-2016) on sexual victimization of males 14 years of age or older. The study sought to assess the impact of victim, offender, and incident characteristics associated with the outcome of the case (i.e., open, arrest, and exceptional clearance due to the victim declining or the prosecution refusing to pursue the case) for 20,701 male victims who reported a forcible sex offense to law enforcement as well as agency variation for cleared crimes. Using multilevel multinomial logistic regression, exceptionally cleared cases are more likely to resemble open cases than those resulting in arrest with incident characteristics having a larger influence than victim and offender characteristics. Cases involving concomitant offenses, committed by a stranger, resulting in injury, increase the likelihood of arrest-all of which support the "real rape" hypothesis. Exceptionally cleared cases represent more than one-third of cleared cases and there is significant department variation in the usage of exceptional clearance, as a number of agencies are exceptionally clearing more than half of their cleared cases, artificially increasing their clearance rate. These results, in conjunction with research on female victims, suggests that the handling of sexual assault cases reported to law enforcement remains problematic.

Caregivers’ Expectations, Reflected Appraisals, and Arrests among Adolescents Who Experienced Parental Incarceration

This research sought to identify a potential process by which intergenerational crime occurs, focusing on the effect of parental incarceration on adolescents’ subsequent arrests. We drew from Matsueda’s work on reflected appraisals as an explanatory mechanism for this effect. Thus, the present research examined whether caregivers’ and adolescents’ expectations for adolescents’ future incarceration sequentially mediated the effect of parental incarceration on adolescents’ actual arrest outcomes. Propensity score matching was used to examine this effect in a sample of 1,735 15- to 16-year-olds using NLSY97 data. Parental incarceration was positively related to caregivers’ expectations of adolescents’ future arrest. Moreover, caregivers’ expectations were strongly associated with adolescents’ expectations. Finally, the effect of parental incarceration on adolescents’ actual future arrest likelihood was partially mediated by caregivers’ and adolescents’ expectations for this outcome. This study revealed support for the proposition that the experience of parental incarceration may influence adolescents’ negative outcomes through reflected appraisals.

Housing Vouchers, Income Shocks and Crime: Evidence from a Lottery

Employing exogenous variation in randomized wait-list positions assigned using a lottery, we identify the causal effects of Section 8 housing vouchers on arrests of adult household heads. Based on administrative records from Houston, we find that voucher receipt has no effect on the likelihood of arrest. Even among the groups with the highest propensities for crime, the vouchers have no impact. Income effects for these adults are particularly large relative to neighborhood effects, leading us to believe that this large income shock does little to alleviate financial pressures that could lead to crime.

Domestic violence mandatory arrest policies and arrests for same-sex and opposite-sex intimate partner violence after legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States

ABSTRACT Historically, legal protection for survivors of intimate partner violence (IPV) in same-sex relationships has been lacking. This changed with the 2015 United States Supreme Court’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges, which invalidated restrictions on same-sex marriage and made legal protections more widely available to survivors of same-sex IPV. In this paper, we analyze the arrest decision in cases of same-sex and opposite-sex IPV using data from the 2016 National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) – the first year of data post-Obergefell. We also compare our results to previous research and both replicate and extend earlier analyses to see if there are changes in arrest post-Obergefell. Since 1977, states have adopted one of the three types of domestic violence arrest laws: mandatory arrest, pro-arrest, and discretionary arrest. While mandatory arrest laws increase the likelihood of arrest for all and female same-sex couples, they do not have an impact on arrests for male same-sex couples. Pro-arrest laws do not increase the likelihood of arrest for same-sex couples. Finally, the decreased likelihood of arrest when the victim is ‘nonwhite’ is attributable to the impact of the victim being Black. These results are discussed in the context of previous research on IPV.

The Usual Suspects: Prior Criminal Record and the Probability of Arrest

A unique dataset is analyzed to investigate the effect of a criminal suspect’s prior criminal record on the probability of arrest. Multivariate logistic regression results show that a criminal suspect with a prior criminal record is approximately 29 times more likely than a suspect without a criminal record to be arrested by police. While findings also reveal that Black suspects and Black suspects with a prior criminal record do not have an enhanced proclivity of arrest, Black suspects with a prior criminal record who target White victims are almost three times more apt to be arrested. When juxtaposed with the finding in the baseline model of a substantive relationship between a suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest absent the control for prior criminal record, our results suggest that any correlation evinced between a criminal suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest without controlling for the suspect’s prior criminal history may be spurious due to omitted variable bias.

Alcohol Use, Employment, and Arrest: Making Sense of a Convoluted Relationship

The relationships between alcohol use, employment, and arrest are complexed and nuanced. This study examines the possibility of interactions between drinking and employment to evaluate whether the effects of alcohol use and/or employment on offending are contingent upon the other. Data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) are analyzed using multilevel logistic regressions to examine the possibility of interactions between alcohol use and employment in their impact on offending. Both drinking in general and binge drinking increase the odds of arrest. In contrast, employment reduces the likelihood of arrest. Results from analyses of potential interactions indicate alcohol use and employment interact in their effects on crime. Alcohol use and employment appear to interact such that the effect of alcohol use on arrest depends on how frequently a person works, and the protective effect of employment depends on how often a person consumes alcohol.

Impact of methadone treatment initiated in jail on subsequent arrest

BackgroundThere are limited data from randomized trials about the impact of starting methadone treatment in jail on subsequent arrest after release for adults with opioid use disorder (OUD). MethodsOfficial arrest records were obtained for 212 participants with OUD who were enrolled in a three-group randomized controlled trial of initiating methadone treatment in jail either with or without patient navigation vs. enhanced treatment-as-usual in Baltimore, Maryland. Participants treated for opioid withdrawal in jail were assigned to: 1) interim methadone (IM) with patient navigation (PN; IM + PN); 2) IM without PN (IM); or 3) enhanced treatment-as-usual (ETAU). Participants in both IM groups were able to continue treatment at a community-based methadone treatment program with counseling upon release, while ETAU participants received overdose information and a city-wide treatment assessment/referral number. Likelihood of arrest, time to first subsequent arrest, and severity of arrest charges in the 12 months following release were examined for: 1) combined IM + PN and IM groups compared to ETAU; and 2) IM + PN compared to IM. ResultsWithin 12 months of release from the index incarceration, 50.5% of the sample had been arrested. The majority of arrest charges (71%) were for low-level, nonviolent crimes. On an intention-to-treat basis, there were no significant differences between the combined IM + PN and IM groups vs. ETAU or IM + PN vs. IM in the likelihood of arrest, time to first subsequent arrest, or severity of arrest charges. ConclusionInitiating IM with or without PN during pretrial detention did not have a significant effect on subsequent arrest during a 12-month post-release follow-up compared to not starting methadone maintenance during detention, despite the high rate of methadone treatment entry in the community following release. This finding may be attributable to the considerable attrition from treatment in the community or other systematic factors. Additional interventions may be needed to reduce the likelihood of subsequent arrest.

Psychosis, Mania and Criminal Recidivism: Associations and Implications for Prevention.

People with mental illness are overrepresented throughout the criminal justice system, including jail, prison, probation, and parole populations. Yet much disagreement remains about why this problem exists and how best to address it. This article specifically examines empirical evidence regarding the question of whether psychosis and mania are associated with criminal recidivism, and whether this association is predictive or causal in nature. Review of the current literature suggests that psychotic and manic symptoms are associated with increased likelihood of arrest and incarceration. In addition, current evidence shows that pharmacotherapy can reduce criminal recidivism among justice-involved adults with psychosis or mania. However, the extent to which the association between psychosis, mania, and criminal justice system involvement is causal remains uncertain. Also, the literature suggests that most crimes committed by people with schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar I disorder may be driven by factors other than their psychotic or manic symptoms. These established "criminogenic needs" are more common among people with severe mental disorders than in the general population. For optimal prevention, those who serve justice-involved adults with psychosis or mania in community settings should consider addressing the full range of factors that potentially drive their criminal justice system involvement.

The Effects of Race and Physical Evidence on the Likelihood of Arrest for Homicide

Previous research examining the association between criminal suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest has produced inconsistent findings. Social scientists remain unsure as to whether Black or White criminal suspects have a higher probability of arrest. Still others find no substantive association between a criminal suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest. This study contributes to the extant literature by examining the relationship between a criminal suspect’s race and the arrest sanction for the crime of homicide while controlling for the strength of physical evidence linking the criminal suspect to the crime. Although strength of physical evidence against a defendant in a criminal case has been repeatedly shown to be important in determining a variety of criminal justice processing outcomes, it has typically been excluded from research studies examining the arrest decision due to data limitations. Logistic regression results show that Black homicide suspects are not more likely than similarly situated White homicide suspects to be arrested by police. Results also show that Black-on-White homicides are not more apt than other offender–victim racial combinations to culminate in an arrest. Based on these findings, it appears that a homicide suspect’s race does not play a noteworthy role in influencing the likelihood of arrest after accounting for the strength of physical evidence gathered against the criminal suspect in the case.

Likelihood of Arrest for Robberies, Assaults, and Sexual Offenses Committed by Group and Lone Offenders.

Many criminologists have considered the role of groups in the commission of crime to gain insight into offender decision-making. Additional research is needed, however, that examines the likelihood of arrest as a function of whether an offense is committed by a group of offenders (two or more offenders in a criminal incident) or a lone offender, as well as the number of offenders in the group. Using 3 years of data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System for robbery incidents, assault incidents, and sexual offenses, the study finds that the relative likelihood of arrest for group-offender incidents, compared with lone-offender incidents, varies by incident type. For robbery incidents, the likelihood of arrest increases when committed by a group of offenders. Yet, for assault incidents and sexual offenses, the likelihood of arrest decreases when committed by a group of offenders. Further analysis looks more closely at incidents committed by a group of offenders and how the number of offenders in the group affects the likelihood of arrest. A consistent finding is that for each incident type, the likelihood that all offenders in a group will be arrested is lower as the number of offenders increases, which may justify offenders' perceptions of "safety in larger numbers."

The co-offender as counterfactual: a quasi-experimental within-partnership approach to the examination of the relationship between race and arrest

Estimate the relationship between race and arrest within co-offending partnerships using a quasi-experimental framework. More specifically, this study argues that when two offenders commit an offense together (i.e., co-offend), the characteristics of the offense and victim are the same and can be removed as possible confounding variables. In this way, co-offenders can serve as counterfactual observations to one another, allowing for quasi-experimental analysis of the effects of race on arrest likelihood. The current study restructures data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) into a multi-level format wherein level-1 information on offender demographics and arrest are nested within a level-2 file containing information on co-offending partnerships, offense characteristics, and victim characteristics. By restricting the data to co-offending partnerships and examining within-partnership differences in arrest, the analysis examines racial differences in arrest given that two offenders commit the same offense together against the exact same victim. While a traditional logistic regression approach suggests that black offenders are less likely than white offenders to be arrested (OR = 0.749), the quasi-experimental analysis examining within-partnership differences suggests the opposite: black offenders are more likely than their white co-offending partners to be arrested for an offense (OR = 1.031). These results have two implications. First, traditional regression analyses of the relationship between race and arrest may be subject to significant selection and omitted variable bias. Second, there is potential racial disparity in co-offender arrest: black co-offenders are more likely than their white partners to be arrested for the same violent offense.

Criminal justice outcomes over 5 years after randomization to buprenorphine-naloxone or methadone treatment for opioid use disorder.

To compare long-term criminal justice outcomes among opioid-dependent individuals randomized to receive buprenorphine or methadone. A 5-year follow-up was conducted in 2011-14 of 303 opioid-dependent participants entering three opioid treatment programs in California, USA in 2006-09 and randomized to receive either buprenorphine/naloxone or methadone. Participants received buprenorphine/naloxone (BUP; n=179) or methadone (MET; n=124) for 24weeks and then were tapered off their treatment over ≤8weeks or referred for ongoing clinical treatment. Midway through the study, the randomization scheme was switched from 1:1 BUP:MET to 2:1 because of higher dropout in the BUP arm. Study outcomes included arrests and self-reported incarceration. Predictors included randomization condition (buprenorphine versus methadone), age, gender, race/ethnicity, use of cocaine, drug injection in the 30days prior to baseline and study site. Treatment status (buprenorphine, methadone, none) during follow-up was included as a time-varying covariate. There was no significant difference by randomization condition in the proportion arrested (buprenorphine: 55.3%, methadone: 54.0%) or incarcerated (40.9%, 47.3%) during follow-up. Among methadone-randomized individuals, arrest was less likely with methadone treatment (0.50, 0.35-0.72) during follow-up (relative to no treatment) and switching to buprenorphine had a lower likelihood of arrest than those receiving no treatment (0.39, 0.18-0.87). Among buprenorphine-randomized individuals, arrest was less likely with receipt of buprenorphine (0.49, 0.33-0.75) during follow-up and switching to methadone had a similar likelihood of arrest as methadone-randomized individuals receiving no treatment. Likelihood of arrest was also negatively associated with older age (0.98, 0.96-1.00); it was positively associated with Hispanic ethnicity (1.63, 1.04-2.56), cocaine use (2.00, 1.33-3.03), injection drug use (2.19, 1.26-3.83), and study site. In a US sample of people treated for opioid use disorder, continued treatment with either buprenorphine or methadone was associated with a reduction in arrests relative to no treatment. Cocaine use, injection drug use, Hispanic ethnicity and younger age were associated with higher likelihood of arrest.

Police Use of Force as an Extension of Arrests: Examining Disparities across Civilian and Officer Race

The United States is embroiled in an important debate about police use of force tactics. I find that black civilians are disproportionately likely to be involved in a use of force incident during an arrest, examining data from Dallas, Texas. However, this race disparity stems from differences in the initial likelihood of arrest. Further, I fail to find evidence of taste-based racial bias in use of force conditional on arrest, leveraging variation across officer and civilian race. The results suggest that reforms that narrowly focus on force-related protocols may be unlikely to reduce racial disparities in use of force.

Intimate Partner Violence Among Sexual Minorities: Predicting Police Officer Arrest Decisions

Intimate partner violence (IPV) among sexual minorities (SM) remains a considerable social problem. Police response to survivors can have a significant impact on recovery, case attrition, and suspect apprehension. The present study employed a 3 (sexual orientation) × 2 (physical evidence) × 2 (trauma response) between-subjects factorial design with a sample of 467 police–participant survey responses among commissioned personnel in one of the five largest U.S. cities to examine predictors of arrest in a randomly assigned hypothetical IPV vignette while considering case and participant factors. Findings revealed arrest likelihood decreased when police were presented with an SM couple. Presence of physical evidence and increased importance on police processes increased arrest likelihood. Adherence to heteronormative IPV myths decreased arrest likelihood despite couple sexual orientation. Implications and future research directions are discussed.

Race and the Likelihood of Intimate Partner Violence Arrest and Dual Arrest

Research on the impact of race on the likelihood an incident of intimate partner violence will result in arrest is mixed. Some scholars find racial minorities to be at lower risk of arrest, some find racial minorities to be at higher risk of arrest, and some find no difference in arrest likelihood based on race of the involved parties. Using a data set comprising 10 years of National Incident-Based Reporting System data (2000–2009) from 5,481 jurisdictions in 36 states and the District of Columbia, the authors examine the impact of victim and offender race on the likelihood of arrest and dual arrest. Accounting for such factors as seriousness of offense, location, and sex, the authors found that there are significant differences in the likelihood of arrest and dual arrest based on the victim and offender racial dyad. Generally, regardless of offender race, incidents with a White victim evince the highest likelihood of arrest, while interracial incidents involving a Black offender and White victim evince the lowest likelihood of dual arrest. Research and policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Safe and unsafe spaces: Non-fatal overdose, arrest, and receptive syringe sharing among people who inject drugs in public and semi-public spaces in Baltimore City

The spaces in which drug use occurs constitutes a key aspect of the “risk environment” of people who inject drugs (PWID). We aimed to add nuance to the characterization of “safe” and “unsafe” spaces in PWID’s environments to further understand how these spaces amplify the risk of morbidities associated with injection drug use. PWID were recruited through the Baltimore City syringe service program and through peer referral. Participants completed a socio-behavioral survey. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify associations between utilization of public, semi-public and private spaces with arrest, non-fatal overdose, and receptive syringe sharing. The sample of PWID (N = 283) was mostly 45 years and older (54%), male (69%), Black (55%), and heroin users (96%). Compared to PWID who primarily used private settings, the adjusted odds of recent overdose were greater among PWID who mostly used semi-public and public locations to inject drugs. We also found independent associations between arrest and semi-public spaces, and between receptive syringe sharing and public spaces (all p < 0.05). This study highlights the need for safe spaces where PWID can reduce their risk of overdose, likelihood of arrest and blood-borne diseases, and the dual potential of the environment in promoting health and risk.

Uncovering the gender participation gap in crime

There is little research on the gender variation in the crime market. We document a gender gap in criminal activities, based on property crimes, using data from the U.S. National Incident Based Reporting System from 1995 to 2015. We show that there is a gender participation gap, with only 30 percent of the crimes being committed by females. We try to explain the gender participation gap by focusing on incentives to commit crime, such as criminal earnings and probability of arrest. We show that on average females earn 13% less than males while they face a 9% lower likelihood of arrest. We find that males respond more to changes in illegal earnings, with an elasticity of 0.36, while females are less responsive with an elasticity of 0.23. Both genders respond equally to changes in the probability of arrest, with an elasticity around −0.14. Using a Blinder–Oaxaca type decomposition technique, we find that differences in incentives explain about 8 % of the gender participation gap, while differences in responsiveness to changes in incentives, especially illegal earnings, explain about 56% of the gap. The fact that females behave differently than males has implications for the heterogeneity in response to crime control policies.

The Risks and Benefits of School Integration for Participating Students: Evidence from a Randomized Desegregation Program

This paper studies the impact of a lottery-based desegregation program that allows minority students to transfer to seven school districts serving higher-income, predominantly-white families. While prior research has studied the impacts of such a program receiving students, this paper studies the effects on participating students. In the short run, students who receive an offer to transfer are more likely to be classified as requiring special education and their test scores increase in several subjects. In the medium run, college enrollment increases by 8 percentage points for these students.This is due to greater attendance at two-year colleges. There is no overall effect on the likelihood of voting. However, the offer to transfer significantly increases the likelihood of arrest. This is driven primarily by increases in arrests for non-violent offenses. Almost all of these effects - both the risks and the benefits - stem from impacts on male students. Male students have higher test scores, college enrollment rates, and are significantly more likely to vote, but they also experience nearly all of the effects on arrests.

Prospective prediction of arrests for driving under the influence from relationship patterns with family and friends in adolescence

Driving under the influence (DUI) is dangerous and costly, yet there are few prospective studies on modifiable risk and protective processes that would inform prevention. Middle adolescence, when most individuals are first learning to drive and first using alcohol, may be a particularly salient period for family and friendship influences on DUI risk. In the present study, youth's family and friendship environments were observed and measured at age 16 in a diverse community sample (n=999), and then court records were used to document arrest for DUI through the age of 32years. We first examined the univariate effects of family and friendship variables on later DUI and then fit more comprehensive structural equation models to test predictive effects on the level of construct (e.g., parental monitoring) and environment (e.g., family). Results indicate that parental monitoring (Odds Ratio [OR]=0.77), positive family relations (OR=0.84), prosocial peer affiliation (OR=0.77), and deviant peer affiliation (OR=1.43) at age 16 were individually predictive of arrests for DUI from ages 16 to 32, even after controlling for both teen and parent alcohol use. The comprehensive, multivariate models indicated that the friendship environment was most predictive of arrests for DUI during the follow-up period. Together, these results are consistent with a model in which attenuated family ties contribute to substance-use-based friendships at age 16, which in turn contribute to an increased likelihood of arrest for DUI in later adolescence and early adulthood. Implications for prevention are discussed.