Likelihood Fit Research Articles

Revisiting the Briggs Ancient DNA Damage Model: A Fast Maximum Likelihood Method to Estimate Post-Mortem Damage.

One essential initial step in the analysis of ancient DNA is to authenticate that the DNA sequencing reads are actually from ancient DNA. This is done by assessing if the reads exhibit typical characteristics of post-mortem damage (PMD), including cytosine deamination and nicks. We present a novel statistical method implemented in a fast multithreaded programme, ngsBriggs that enables rapid quantification of PMD by estimation of the Briggs ancient damage model parameters (Briggs parameters). Using a multinomial model with maximum likelihood fit, ngsBriggs accurately estimates the parameters of the Briggs model, quantifying the PMD signal from single and double-stranded DNA regions. We extend the original Briggs model to capture PMD signals for contemporary sequencing platforms and show that ngsBriggs accurately estimates the Briggs parameters across a variety of contamination levels. Classification of reads into ancient or modern reads, for the purpose of decontamination, is significantly more accurate using ngsBriggs than using other methods available. Furthermore, ngsBriggs is substantially faster than other state-of-the-art methods. ngsBriggs offers a practical and accurate method for researchers seeking to authenticate ancient DNA and improve the quality of their data.

Tully-Fisher relation of late-type galaxies at 0.6 ≤ z ≤ 2.5

We present a study of the stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relation within the redshift range of 0.6 ≤ z ≤ 2.5, utilizing observations of star-forming galaxies. This dataset comprises of disk-like galaxies spanning a stellar mass range of 8.89 ≤ log(Mstar [M⊙]) ≤ 11.5, a baryonic mass range of 9.0 ≤ log(Mbar [M⊙]) ≤ 11.5, and a circular velocity range of 1.65 ≤ log(Vc [km/s]) ≤ 2.85. We estimated the stellar masses of these objects using spectral energy distribution fitting techniques, while the gas masses were determined via scaling relations. Circular velocities were directly derived from the rotation curves (RCs), after meticulously correcting for beam smearing and pressure support. Our analysis confirms that our sample adheres to the fundamental mass-size relations of galaxies and reflects the evolution of velocity dispersion in galaxies, in line with previous findings. This reaffirms the reliability of our photometric and kinematic parameters (i.e., Mstar and Vc), thereby enabling a comprehensive examination of the Tully-Fisher relation. To attain robust results, we employed a novel orthogonal likelihood fitting technique designed to minimize intrinsic scatter around the best-fit line, as required at high redshifts. For the stellar Tully-Fisher relation, we obtained a slope of α = 3.03 ± 0.25, an offset of β = 3.34 ± 0.53, and an intrinsic scatter of ζint = 0.08 dex. Correspondingly, the baryonic Tully-Fisher relation yielded α = 3.21 ± 0.28, β = 3.16 ± 0.61, and ζint = 0.09 dex. Our findings indicate a subtle deviation in the stellar and baryonic Tully-Fisher relation with respect to local studies, which is most likely due to the evolutionary processes governing disk formation.

Test of light-lepton universality in τ decays with the Belle II experiment

We present a measurement of the ratio Rμ=Bτ−→μ−ν¯μντ/Bτ−→e−ν¯eντ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ {R}_{\\mu }=\\mathcal{B}\\left({\ au}^{-}\ o {\\mu}^{-}{\\overline{\ u}}_{\\mu }{\ u}_{\ au}\\right)/\\mathcal{B}\\left({\ au}^{-}\ o {e}^{-}{\\overline{\ u}}_e{\ u}_{\ au}\\right) $$\\end{document} of branching fractions B\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \\mathcal{B} $$\\end{document} of the τ lepton decaying to muons or electrons using data collected with the Belle II detector at the SuperKEKB e+e− collider. The sample has an integrated luminosity of 362 ± 2 fb−1 at a centre-of-mass energy of 10.58 GeV. Using an optimised event selection, a binned maximum likelihood fit is performed using the momentum spectra of the electron and muon candidates. The result, Rμ = 0.9675 ± 0.0007 ± 0.0036, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic, is the most precise to date. It provides a stringent test of the light-lepton universality, translating to a ratio of the couplings of the muon and electron to the W boson in τ decays of 0.9974 ± 0.0019, in agreement with the standard model expectation of unity.

A new Monte Carlo generator for BSM physics in B → K*ℓ+ℓ− decays with an application to lepton non-universality in angular distributions

Within the widely used EvtGen framework, we have added a new event generator model for B → K*ℓ+ℓ− with improved standard model (SM) decay amplitudes and possible BSM physics contributions, which are implemented in the operator product expansion in terms of Wilson coefficients. This event generator can then be used to estimate the statistical sensitivity of a simulated experiment to the most general BSM signal resulting from dimension-six operators. We describe the advantages and potential of the newly developed ‘Sibidanov Physics Generator’ in improving the experimental sensitivity of searches for lepton non-universal BSM physics and clarifying signatures. The new generator can properly simulate BSM scenarios, interference between SM and BSM amplitudes, and correlations between different BSM observables as well as acceptance bias. We show that exploiting such correlations substantially improves experimental sensitivity. As a demonstration of the utility of the MC generator, we examine the prospects for improved measurements of lepton non-universality in angular distributions for B → K*ℓ+ℓ− decays from the expected 50 ab−1 data set of the Belle II experiment, using a four-dimensional unbinned maximum likelihood fit. We describe promising experimental signatures and correlations between observables. The use of lepton-universality violating ∆-observables significantly reduces uncertainties in the SM expectations due to QCD and resonance effects and is ideally suited for Belle II with the large data sets expected in the next decade. Thanks to the clean experimental environment of an e+e− machine, Belle II should be able to probe BSM physics in the Wilson coefficients C7 and C7′\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ {C}_7^{\\prime } $$\\end{document}, which appear at low q2 in the di-electron channel.

A hybrid approach to event reconstruction for atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes combining machine learning and likelihood fitting

The imaging atmospheric Cherenkov technique provides potentially the highest angular resolution achievable in astronomy at energies above the X-ray waveband. High-resolution measurements provide the key to progress on many of the major questions in high energy astrophysics, including the sites and mechanisms of particle acceleration to PeV energies. The huge potential of the next-generation CTA observatory in this regard can be realised with the help of improved algorithms for the reconstruction of the air-shower direction and energy.Hybrid methods combining maximum-likelihood-fitting techniques with neural networks represent a particularly promising approach and have recently been successfully applied for the reconstruction of astrophysical neutrinos. Here, we present the FreePACT algorithm, a hybrid reconstruction method for IACTs. In this, making use of the neural ratio estimation technique from the field of likelihood-free inference, the analytical likelihood used in traditional image likelihood fitting is replaced by a neural network that approximates the charge probability density function for each pixel in the camera.The performance of this improved algorithm is demonstrated using simulations of the planned CTA southern array. For this setupFreePACT provides significant performance improvements over analytical likelihood techniques, with improvements in angular and energy resolution of 25% or more over a wide energy range and an angular resolution as low as 40′′ at energies above 50TeV for observations at 20° zenith angle. It also yields more accurate estimations of the uncertainties on the reconstructed parameters and significantly speeds up the reconstruction compared to analytical likelihood techniques while showing the same stability with respect to changes in the observation conditions. Therefore, the FreePACT method is a promising upgrade over the current state-of-the-art likelihood event reconstruction techniques.

Maximizing the physics potential of B±→π±μ+μ− decays

We present a method that maximizes the experimental sensitivity to new physics contributions in B±→π±μ+μ− decays. This method relies on performing an unbinned maximum likelihood fit to both the measured dimuon q2 distribution of B±→π±μ+μ− decays, and theory calculations at spacelike q2, where QCD predictions are most reliable. Using known properties of the decay amplitude we employ a dispersion relation to describe the nonlocal hadronic contributions across spacelike and timelike q2 regions. The fit stability and the sensitivity to new physics couplings and new sources of CP-violation are studied for current and future data-taking scenarios, with the LHCb experiment as an example. The proposed method offers a precise and reliable way to search for new physics in these decays. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Uncertainty components in profile likelihood fits

When a measurement of a physical quantity is reported, the total uncertainty is usually decomposed into statistical and systematic uncertainties. This decomposition is not only useful for understanding the contributions to the total uncertainty, but is also required to propagate these contributions in subsequent analyses, such as combinations or interpretation fits including results from other measurements or experiments. In profile likelihood fits, widely applied in high-energy physics analyses, contributions of systematic uncertainties are routinely quantified using “impacts,” which are not adequate for such applications. We discuss the difference between impacts and actual uncertainty components, and establish methods to determine the latter in a wide range of statistical models.

Evidence for B+→K+νν¯ decays

We search for the rare decay B+→K+νν¯ in a 362 fb−1 sample of electron-positron collisions at the ϒ(4S) resonance collected with the Belle II detector at the SuperKEKB collider. We use the inclusive properties of the accompanying B meson in ϒ(4S)→BB¯ events to suppress background from other decays of the signal B candidate and light-quark pair production. We validate the measurement with an auxiliary analysis based on a conventional hadronic reconstruction of the accompanying B meson. For background suppression, we exploit distinct signal features using machine learning methods tuned with simulated data. The signal-reconstruction efficiency and background suppression are validated through various control channels. The branching fraction is extracted in a maximum likelihood fit. Our inclusive and hadronic analyses yield consistent results for the B+→K+νν¯ branching fraction of [2.7±0.5(stat)±0.5(syst)]×10−5 and [1.1−0.8+0.9(stat)−0.5+0.8(syst)]×10−5, respectively. Combining the results, we determine the branching fraction of the decay B+→K+νν¯ to be [2.3±0.5(stat)−0.4+0.5(syst)]×10−5, providing the first evidence for this decay at 3.5 standard deviations. The combined result is 2.7 standard deviations above the standard model expectation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Inclusive and differential cross section measurements of tt¯bb¯\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \ extrm{t}\\overline{\ extrm{t}}\ extrm{b}\\overline{\ extrm{b}} $$\\end{document} production in the lepton+jets channel at s\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \\sqrt{s} $$\\end{document} = 13 TeV

Measurements of inclusive and normalized differential cross sections of the associated production of top quark-antiquark and bottom quark-antiquark pairs, tt¯bb¯\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \ extrm{t}\\overline{\ extrm{t}}\ extrm{b}\\overline{\ extrm{b}} $$\\end{document}, are presented. The results are based on data from proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS detector at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The cross sections are measured in the lepton+jets decay channel of the top quark pair, using events containing exactly one isolated electron or muon and at least five jets. Measurements are made in four fiducial phase space regions, targeting different aspects of the tt¯bb¯\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \ extrm{t}\\overline{\ extrm{t}}\ extrm{b}\\overline{\ extrm{b}} $$\\end{document} process. Distributions are unfolded to the particle level through maximum likelihood fits, and compared with predictions from several event generators. The inclusive cross section measurements of this process in the fiducial phase space regions are the most precise to date. In most cases, the measured inclusive cross sections exceed the predictions with the chosen generator settings. The only exception is when using a particular choice of dynamic renormalization scale, μR=12∏i=t,t¯,b,b¯mT,i1/4\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ {\\mu}_{\ extrm{R}}=\\frac{1}{2}{\\prod}_{i=\ extrm{t},\\overline{\ extrm{t}},\ extrm{b},\\overline{\ extrm{b}}}{m}_{\ extrm{T},i}^{1/4} $$\\end{document}, where mT,i2=mi2+pT,i2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ {m}_{\ extrm{T},i}^2={m}_i^2+{p}_{\ extrm{T},i}^2 $$\\end{document} are the transverse masses of top and bottom quarks. The differential cross sections show varying degrees of compatibility with the theoretical predictions, and none of the tested generators with the chosen settings simultaneously describe all the measured distributions.

Study of High-Transverse-Momentum Higgs Boson Production in Association with a Vector Boson in the qqbb Final State with the ATLAS Detector.

This Letter presents the first study of Higgs boson production in association with a vector boson (V=W or Z) in the fully hadronic qqbb final state using data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at sqrt[s]=13 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb^{-1}. The vector bosons and Higgs bosons are each reconstructed as large-radius jets and tagged using jet substructure techniques. Dedicated tagging algorithms exploiting b-tagging properties are used to identify jets consistent with Higgs bosons decaying into bb[over ¯]. Dominant backgrounds from multijet production are determined directly from the data, and a likelihood fit to the jet mass distribution of Higgs boson candidates is used to extract the number of signal events. The VH production cross section is measured inclusively and differentially in several ranges of Higgs boson transverse momentum: 250-450, 450-650, and greater than 650GeV. The inclusive signal yield relative to the standard model expectation is observed to be μ=1.4_{-0.9}^{+1.0} and the corresponding cross section is 3.1±1.3(stat)_{-1.4}^{+1.8}(syst) pb.

Profiles of Autistic Youth with and Without Co-occurring Behavioral Health and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Latent Class Analysis.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis relies on clinical observation and documentation, but the presence of comorbidities can affect diagnostic validity across clinicians and exacerbate access to timely care. This study used latent class analysis to optimize subgroup identification based on functional level and associated comorbidities using the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Third Edition (BASC-3), and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, Third Edition (Vineland-3), in a pediatric population referred for autism evaluation. This retrospective study reviewed clinical data extracted over a 3-year period (2018-2021). A latent class analysis was used to explore the presence of latent groups guided by the likelihood ratio test and fit indices. Additional analyses contrasted ASD and non-ASD groups on the BASC-3 and Vineland-3 variables. There were 191 included participants (mean age 65.9 months, 76.4% male), of whom over half (60.7%) had an ASD diagnosis. Using 185 cases, the exploratory latent class analysis showed the emergence of 4 distinct subgroups. Composition of classes varied on ASD diagnosis, neurodevelopmental difficulties, behavioral health concerns, and intellectual disability. When contrasting ASD and non-ASD groups, significant between-group differences were observed across Vineland-3 variables and BASC-3 adaptive skills subscales indicating poorer social and adaptive functioning. Latent class analysis of commonly used behavioral and adaptive measures can help distinguish between subgroups of pediatric patients referred for ASD evaluations and assist in triage of cases based on severity.

A Technique to Quantify Very Low Activities in Regions of Interest With a Collimatorless Detector.

We present a new method to measure sub-microcurie activities of photon-emitting radionuclides in organs and lesions of small animals in vivo. Our technique, named the collimator-less likelihood fit, combines a very high sensitivity collimatorless detector with a Monte Carlo-based likelihood fit in order to estimate the activities in previously segmented regions of interest along with their uncertainties. This is done directly from the photon projections in our collimatorless detector and from the region of interest segmentation provided by an x-ray computed tomography scan. We have extensively validated our approach with 225Ac experimentally in spherical phantoms and mouse phantoms, and also numerically with simulations of a realistic mouse anatomy. Our method yields statistically unbiased results with uncertainties smaller than 20% for activities as low as ~111Bq (3nCi) and for exposures under 30 minutes. We demonstrate that our method yields more robust recovery coefficients when compared to SPECT imaging with a commercial pre-clinical scanner, specially at very low activities. Thus, our technique is complementary to traditional SPECT/CT imaging since it provides a more accurate and precise organ and tumor dosimetry, with a more limited spatial information. Finally, our technique is specially significant in extremely low-activity scenarios when SPECT/CT imaging is simply not viable.

Employing the maximum likelihood fitting method in the principle of probability and statistics to continually apply the original FHWA road traffic noise prediction model

The original federal highway administration (FHWA) model for road traffic noise (RTN) prediction in the United States (US) has been widely applied in many countries. However, the condition was that the intensities of vehicle noise sources at the reference distance must be determined based on the empirical formula related to vehicle speed and road surface obtained by applying the measured results of a large number of different vehicles in the US. Because the dominant vehicle types and road pavement structures in other countries are not the same, the classification of vehicles and the calculation formula for the source intensity will be different. Even in the US, because of the older modeling data, the current vehicles and their changed noise source, and the new traffic noise model (TNM), the original FHWA model may produce errors if applied in other countries. Therefore, by employing the maximum likelihood method in probability and statistics, this study proposes a method that can continue to directly apply the original FHWA model according to the local vehicle traffic flow, together with a simple method of measuring the attenuation of RTN with distance, to eliminate the uncertainty of the source intensity.

Measurement of the [formula omitted] charge asymmetry in events with highly Lorentz-boosted top quarks in pp collisions at [formula omitted] TeV

The measurement of the charge asymmetry in top quark pair events with highly Lorentz-boosted top quarks decaying to a single lepton and jets is presented. The analysis is performed using proton-proton collisions at s=13TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The selection is optimized for top quarks produced with large Lorentz boosts, resulting in nonisolated leptons and overlapping jets. The top quark charge asymmetry is measured for events with a tt¯ invariant mass larger than 750 GeV and corrected for detector and acceptance effects using a binned maximum likelihood fit. The measured top quark charge asymmetry of (0.42−0.69+0.64)% is in good agreement with the standard model prediction at next-to-next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamic perturbation theory with next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. The result is also presented for two invariant mass ranges, 750–900 and >900GeV.

Search for pair-produced vector-like leptons in final states with third-generation leptons and at least three b quark jets in proton-proton collisions at [formula omitted

The first search is presented for vector-like leptons (VLLs) in the context of the “4321 model”, an ultraviolet-complete model with the potential to explain existing B physics measurements that are in tension with standard model predictions. The analyzed data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 96.5fb−1, were recorded in 2017 and 2018 with the CMS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at s=13TeV. Final states with ≥3 b -tagged jets and two third-generation leptons (ττ, τντ, or ντντ) are considered. Upper limits are derived on the VLL production cross section in the VLL mass range 500–1050 GeV. The maximum likelihood fit prefers the presence of signal at the level of 2.8 standard deviations, for a representative VLL mass point of 600 GeV. As a consequence, the observed upper limits are approximately double the expected limits.

Diffuse gamma-ray emission around the Rosette Nebula

ABSTRACT The Rosette Nebula is a young stellar cluster and molecular cloud complex, located at the edge of the southern shell of a middle-aged supernova remnant Monoceros Loop (G205.5+0.5). We revisited the GeV gamma-ray emission towards the Rosette Nebula using more than 13 yr of Fermi-LAT data. We tested several spatial models and found that compared to the result using the CO gas template only, the inclusion of the H ii gas template can significantly improve the likelihood fit. We performed spectral analysis using the new spatial template. With both the gamma-ray observation and CO+H ii gas data, we derived the cosmic ray spectrum of different components in the vicinity of the Rosette Nebula. We found the gamma-ray emissions from Rosette Nebula are substantially harder than previously reported, which may imply that Rosette Nebula is another example of a gamma-ray emitting young massive star cluster.

First measurement of the top quark pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at sqrt{s} = 13.6 TeV

The first measurement of the top quark pair ( textrm{t}overline{textrm{t}} ) production cross section in proton-proton collisions at sqrt{s} = 13.6 TeV is presented. Data recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in Summer 2022, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.21 fb−1, are analyzed. Events are selected with one or two charged leptons (electrons or muons) and additional jets. A maximum likelihood fit is performed in event categories defined by the number and flavors of the leptons, the number of jets, and the number of jets identified as originating from b quarks. An inclusive textrm{t}overline{textrm{t}} production cross section of 881 ± 23 (stat + syst) ± 20 (lumi) pb is measured, in agreement with the standard model prediction of {924}_{-40}^{+32} pb.

Measurement of the top-quark mass using a leptonic invariant mass in pp collisions at sqrt{s} = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the top-quark mass (mt) in the toverline{t} → lepton + jets channel is presented, with an experimental technique which exploits semileptonic decays of b-hadrons produced in the top-quark decay chain. The distribution of the invariant mass mℓμ of the lepton, ℓ (with ℓ = e, μ), from the W-boson decay and the muon, μ, originating from the b-hadron decay is reconstructed, and a binned-template profile likelihood fit is performed to extract mt. The measurement is based on data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1 of sqrt{s} = 13 TeV pp collisions provided by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the ATLAS detector. The measured value of the top-quark mass is mt = 174.41 ± 0.39 (stat.) ± 0.66 (syst.) ± 0.25 (recoil) GeV, where the third uncertainty arises from changing the Pythia8 parton shower gluon-recoil scheme, used in top-quark decays, to a recently developed setup.

Quasar Luminosity Function at z = 7

We present the quasar luminosity function (LF) at z = 7, measured with 35 spectroscopically confirmed quasars at 6.55 < z < 7.15. The sample of 22 quasars from the Subaru High-z Exploration of Low-Luminosity Quasars (SHELLQs) project, combined with 13 brighter quasars in the literature, covers an unprecedentedly wide range of rest-frame ultraviolet magnitudes over −28 < M 1450 < −23. We found that the binned LF flattens significantly toward the faint end populated by the SHELLQs quasars. A maximum likelihood fit to a double power-law model has a break magnitude , a characteristic density Gpc−3 mag−1, and a bright-end slope , when the faint-end slope is fixed to α = −1.2 as observed at z ≤ 6. The overall LF shape remains remarkably similar from z = 4 to 7, while the amplitude decreases substantially toward higher redshifts, with a clear indication of an accelerating decline at z ≥ 6. The estimated ionizing photon density, 1048.2±0.1 s−1 Mpc−3, is less than 1% of the critical rate to keep the intergalactic medium ionized at z = 7, and thus indicates that quasars are not a major contributor to cosmic reionization.

0421 Synchronous Virtual Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia: Preliminary Results of Sleep Pattern Changes among Cancer Survivors

Abstract Introduction For cancer survivors, insomnia is a frequent and distressing concern. Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) is an effective treatment, yet in-person care can be difficult for cancer survivors to access for a variety of socioeconomic, medical and logistical reasons. In a pilot randomized clinical trial, four, weekly sessions of virtually-delivered, synchronous CBT-I were feasible, acceptable, and seemingly efficacious for reducing insomnia among cancer survivors (vs. an enhanced usual care control). The aim of this secondary analysis was to characterize daily patterns in sleep diary metrics during the intervention phase. Methods Adults who had completed treatment for any non-metastatic cancer and had chronic insomnia (DSM-5 criteria and Insomnia Severity Index score &amp;lt;=15) and were randomized to receive CBT-I completed daily assessments of sleep quality (SQ), total sleep time (TST), time in bed (TIB), sleep efficiency (SE), sleep onset latency (SOL), and waking after sleep onset (WASO) for 21 days (i.e., from Session 1-4). Linear mixed models were used to compute trajectories of change for each sleep metric and -2 log likelihood, AIC, and BIC fit indices. Results Among 20 cancer survivors who received CBT-I (mean age 51.2 ± 17.1 years, 90% female), model fit indices indicated that across sleep metrics, linear growth models provided a better fit to the data than either quadratic or cubic growth models. Significant linear improvement was observed for SQ (B = 0.02, t = 3.60, p &amp;lt; 0.001), SE (B = 0.16, t = 2.01, p = 0.046), and SOL (B = -0.41, t = -2.47, p = 0.01), but not TIB, TST, or WASO (ts &amp;lt; 1.12, ps &amp;gt; 0.26). Conclusion Findings elucidate how sleep may be expected to change over the course CBT-I, in particular for the growing population of cancer survivors seeking virtual care for insomnia. The strengths, limitations, and potential modifications to optimize the intervention across sleep metrics will be discussed. Support (if any) This work was conducted with support from the American Cancer Society (Massachusetts General Hospital Institutional Research Grant, PI: Hall).