ABSTRACT The algal blooms in the Middle and Lower reaches of the Hanjiang River (MLHR) have become a great aquatic eco-environmental problem over recent years. The planned implementation of the Water Diversion Project from the Three Gorges Reservoir to the Hanjiang River (WDP-TH) would influence the growth and propagation of diatoms and the development of algal blooms. In this paper, a dynamic model of diatom growth is developed that considers factors such as light exposure, water temperature, total phosphorus, and flow velocity. The effects of the WDP-TH on algal density and blooms in the MLHR were predicted for a typical median year, a typical dry year, and an extremely dry year. The results showed that following the water recharge in a typical median year, the propagation of diatoms in the MLHR was significantly promoted because of an increase in total phosphorus concentration. However, following the water recharge in typical dry and extremely dry years, increased flow rate and improved hydrodynamic conditions significantly inhibited diatom growth and accelerated the transport process. The results of the hypothetical simulation showed that after the initiation of the WDP-TH, inhibition effects of improved hydrodynamic force on algae were more apparent than promotion effects of increased total phosphorus concentration in the MLHR.