Lifetime Risk Of Atrial Fibrillation Research Articles

Modifiable lifestyle factors and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation: longitudinal data from the Korea NHIS-HealS and UK Biobank cohorts

BackgroundThe reason for higher incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe compared with East Asia is unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between modifiable lifestyle factors and lifetime risk of AF in Europe and East Asia, along with race/ethnic similarities and disparities.Methods1:1 propensity score matched pairs of 242,763 East Asians and 242,763 White Europeans without AF were analyzed. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered were blood pressure, body mass index, cigarette smoking, diabetes, alcohol consumption, and physical activity, categorized as non-adverse or adverse levels. Lifetime risk of AF was estimated from the index age of 45 years to the attained age of 85 years, accounting for the competing risk of death.ResultsThe overall lifetime risk of AF was higher in White Europeans than East Asians (20.9% vs 15.4%, p < 0.001). The lifetime risk of AF was similar between the two races in individuals with non-adverse lifestyle factor profiles (13.4% vs 12.9%, p = 0.575), whereas it was higher in White Europeans with adverse lifestyle factor profiles (22.1% vs 15.8%, p < 0.001). The difference in the lifetime risk of AF between the two races increased as the burden of adverse lifestyle factors worsened (1 adverse lifestyle factor; 4.3% to ≥ 3 adverse lifestyle factors; 11.2%). Compared with East Asians, the relative risk of AF in White Europeans was 23% and 62% higher for one (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–1.29) and ≥ 3 adverse lifestyle factors (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.51–1.75), respectively.ConclusionsThe overall higher lifetime risk of AF in White Europeans compared with East Asians might be attributable to adverse lifestyle factors. Adherence to healthy lifestyle factors was associated with the lifetime risk of AF of about 1 in 8 regardless of race/ethnicity.

PO-05-196 MODIFIABLE LIFESTYLE FACTORS AND LIFETIME RISK OF ATRIAL FIBRILLATION: COHORT STUDY BASED ON LONGITUDINAL DATA FROM THE KOREA NHIS-HEALS AND UK BIOBANK

Reasons for the higher incidence of AF among Europeans compared to Asians are yet to be fully understood. We aimed to examine the association between modifiable lifestyle factors and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Europe and East Asia, along with race/ethnic similarities and disparities. We used longitudinal cohort study data from the Korea National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening cohort (K-NHIS-HealS) and UK Biobank. Individuals free of AF at baseline were assessed. Modifiable lifestyle factors included blood pressure, body mass index, cigarette smoking, diabetes, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. Each modifiable lifestyle factor was categorized as optimal (no borderline or adverse lifestyle factor), borderline (at least one borderline and no adverse lifestyle factor), or adverse (at least one adverse lifestyle factor) levels. We estimated lifetime risk of AF at index age 45 years to attained age 85 years, accounting for the competing risk of death. From the K-NHIS-HealS and UK Biobank datasets, we compared 383,048 East Asian (75.8% elevated, 19.3% borderline) and 292,499 White European (70.8% elevated, 28.2% borderline) subjects. The overall lifetime risk of AF was 16.5% and 19.5% in East Asian and White Europeans, respectively (p<0.001). The lifetime risk of AF was similar between the two races with optimal (9.6% East Asian vs 9.1 % White European, p=0.773), higher in East Asian with borderline (15.0% vs 12.0%, p<0.001), and higher in White European with adverse lifestyle factor profiles (17.1% vs 20.6%, p<0.001). Compared to East Asians, the relative risk of AF in White Europeans was 14% higher (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.20, p<0.001) for two adverse lifestyle factors and 40% higher (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.31-1.50, p<0.001) for ≥3 adverse lifestyle factors. The overall lifetime risk of AF was about 1 in 6 in East Asians whereas 1 in 5 in White Europeans. The overall higher lifetime risk of AF in White Europeans compared to East Asians might be attributable to adverse lifestyle factors. Adherence to optimal lifestyle factors reduced the lifetime risk of AF to about 1 in 10 regardless of race/ethnicity.

Abstract P374: Perception of Short-Term and Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: A Survey of American Heart Association Members

Background: Physician communication of lifetime risk prediction can improve patient understanding of atrial fibrillation (AF) risk and motivate lifestyle changes and preventive measures. Therefore, our objective was to assess how physicians perceive short-term and lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation (AF), using a survey. Methods: We invited American Heart Association (AHA) members to complete an online survey via email from November 2-22, 2021. Respondents were randomized to one of 32 vignettes characterized by AF risk factors (height, weight, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, history of heart failure, and history of myocardial infarction). Respondents were further randomized to either estimate the 5-year or lifetime AF risk on a 0-100% scale with 10% intervals (e.g., “10-19%”) or were shown the predicted 5-year or lifetime AF risk value and asked to pick the correct interpretation in a multiple-choice question. Results: Of 11,330 AHA professional members who received the emailed survey, 109 (1%) physicians responded (mean age 51 years, 33% women) (Table). Most respondents estimated the 5-year AF risk correctly (7/9, 78%) but none accurately estimated the lifetime risk (0/18, 0%). Most respondents interpreted the predicted 5-year risk correctly (21/28, 75%) but about half of respondents misinterpreted the lifetime risk (14/25, 56%). Conclusions: In a small sample of physicians, few respondents correctly estimated and interpreted the lifetime risk of AF, suggesting that physicians may not be familiar with this risk format. It may be necessary to study the frequency and manner in which physicians communicate lifetime risk of AF.

Epidemiology and modifiable risk factors for atrial fibrillation.

The global prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has increased substantially over the past three decades and is currently approximately 60 million cases. Incident AF and its clinical consequences are largely the result of risk factors that can be modified by lifestyle changes. In this Review, we provide evidence that the lifetime risk of AF is modified not only by sex and race but also through the clinical risk factor and comorbidity burden of individual patients. We begin by summarizing the epidemiology of AF, focusing on non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors, as well as targets and strategies for theprimary prevention of AF. Furthermore, we evaluate the role of modifiable risk factors in the secondary prevention of AF as well as the potential effects of risk factor interventions on the frequency and severity of subsequent AF episodes. We end the Review by proposing strategies that require evaluation as well as global policy changes that are needed for the prevention of incident AF and the management of recurrent episodes in patients already affected by AF.

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation among men and women

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrythmia worldwide, with an increased risk of comorbidity, and significant sex differences in pathophysiology and prognosis. Cardiometabolic disorders, including obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure commonly coexist with AF. However, the sex-specific patterns and (combined) impact of cardiometabolic disorders on the risk of new-onset AF remains largely unknown. Purpose To examine the association between patterns of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and new-onset AF and lifetime risk of AF incidence among men and women. Methods 4,113 men and 5,432 women free of prevalent AF at baseline (from 1996 to 2008) from the Rotterdam Study were included. AF incidents were assessed by electrocardiograms and general practitioners' and hospital records, and followed up to January 1st, 2014. Sex-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between the amount of cardiometabolic disorders and risks of new-onset AF. Models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Remaining lifetime risk for AF was estimated across the cardiometabolic multimorbidity groups at index ages of 55, 65, and ≥75 years up to age 108. Results Mean age at baseline was 65.5±9.4 years. Median follow-up time was 10.8 years. In the fully-adjusted model, a significant association was found between the amount of cardiometabolic disorders and incident AF among women but not men. Compared to women without cardiometabolic disorders, women with 3 (hazard ratios, 95% conference intervals: 2.17 (1.24–3.79)) and ≥4 comorbidities (4.58 (2.22–9.48)) had higher AF risks. The lifetime risk for AF was significantly increased with the number of cardiometabolic disorders among both men and women. At index age of 55 years, the lifetime risks (95% confidence interval) for AF were 25.2% (17.1–33.4), 24.2% (20.0–28.9), 27.1% (23.2–31.0), 30.0% (24.3–35.7) and 34.1% (22.4–45.7), for 0, 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 comorbid cardiometabolic disorders among men, respectively. Corresponding risks were 16.3% (6.68–25.9), 20.3% (16.3–24.3), 27.6% (24.1–31.2), 23.6% (17.8–29.4) and 33.3% (16.0–50.2) among women. Conclusions We observed a significant combined impact of cardiometabolic disorders on AF risk, most evidently among women. Participants with cardiometabolic multimorbidity had a significantly increased lifetime risk of AF, especially at a young index age. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

The association of education and household income with the lifetime risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The Framingham Heart study

BackgroundSocial determinants of health, in particular education and income, influence the incidence, management, and outcomes of cardiovascular diseases including atrial fibrillation (AF). Data are limited on the associations of socioeconomic status with lifetime risk of incident AF. MethodsWe selected 2172 FHS participants (51% women) who were free of AF at the index age of 55 years. We assessed educational attainment (≥college) at the last exam prior to index age and household income ($40k/50k/≥55k depending on the FHS cohort). We estimated the lifetime risk of AF as the cumulative incidence of AF, accounting for the competing risk of death, at age 95 years. We analyzed strata defined by education and household income separately, and by combining education and household income. We adjusted analyses for sex, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, alcohol consumption, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, history of myocardial infarction, and history of heart failure. ResultsOver a mean follow-up of 13 years, 265 participants developed incident AF. The lifetime risk of developing AF was 32.5% (95%CI, 26.5% to 38.5%) and 32.5% (95%CI, 28.7% to 38.3%) among participants with lower and higher education attainment (p=0.98). The lifetime risk of developing AF was 32.1% (95%CI, 26.7% to 37.5%) and 31.8% (95%CI, 26.6% to 36.9%) among participants with lower and higher household income (p=0.79). There was no evidence of interaction between education and income on lifetime risk of AF (p = 0.84). Results were similar in subgroups of women and men. ConclusionIn our community-based sample, there was no evidence of an association between education or household income and lifetime risk of AF.

A comparison of statistical methods to predict the residual lifetime risk.

Lifetime risk measures the cumulative risk for developing a disease over one's lifespan. Modeling the lifetime risk must account for left truncation, the competing risk of death, and inference at a fixed age. In addition, statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk should account for covariate-outcome associations that change with age. In this paper, we review and compare statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk. We first consider a generalized linear model for the lifetime risk using pseudo-observations of the Aalen-Johansen estimator at a fixed age, allowing for left truncation. We also consider modeling the subdistribution hazard with Fine-Gray and Royston-Parmar flexible parametric models in left truncated data with time-covariate interactions, and using these models to predict lifetime risk. In simulation studies, we found the pseudo-observation approach had the least bias, particularly in settings with crossing or converging cumulative incidence curves. We illustrate our method by modeling the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study. We provide technical guidance to replicate all analyses in R.

Abstract 13980: The Association of Education and Household Income With the Lifetime Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation: The Framingham Heart Study

Introduction: Social determinants of health, in particular education and income, influence the incidence, management, and outcomes of cardiovascular diseases including atrial fibrillation (AF). However, data are limited on the effect of socioeconomic status on the lifetime risk of incident AF. We assessed the association of income and education with lifetime risk of AF in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). Methods: We selected 2172 FHS participants (51% women) who were free of AF at the index age of 55 years. We assessed educational attainment (some college or more) at the last exam prior to index age and household income ($40k/50k/55k or more depending on the FHS cohort). We estimated the lifetime risk of AF as the cumulative incidence of AF, accounting for the competing risk of death, at age 95 years. We analyzed strata defined by education and household income separately, and by combining education and household income. We adjusted analyses on sex, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, history of myocardial infarction, and history of heart failure. Results: Over a mean follow-up of 13 years, 265 participants developed incident AF. The lifetime risk of developing AF was 32.5% (95%CI, 26.5% to 38.5%) and 32.5% (95%CI, 28.7% to 38.3%) among participants with lower and higher education attainment (p=0.98). The lifetime risk of developing AF was 32.1% (95%CI, 26.7% to 37.5%) and 31.8% (95%CI, 26.6% to 36.9%) among participants with lower and higher household income (p=0.79). There was no evidence of an interaction between education and income on lifetime risk of AF (p = 0.84). Results were similar in subgroups of women and men. Conclusions: In our community-based sample, there was no evidence of association between education or household income and lifetime risk of AF

Анализ антитромботической терапии у пожилых людей во врачебной клинической практике центров семейной медицины Кыргызской Республики

Введение. Риски тромбоза и кровотечения с возрастом увеличиваются одновременно, при этом пожилой контингент извлекает больше пользы от антитромботической терапии, чем лица молодого возраста. Цель исследования: изучить ситуацию с назначением антикоагулянтной терапии у пациентов пожилого и старческого возраста с фибрилляцией предсердий (ФП) при центрах семейной медицины южных регионов Кыргызской Республики. Материалы и методы. Из 2000 амбулаторных карт медицинского наблюдения отобрано 470 пациентов с неклапанной ФП, которые имели показания для назначения антитромботической терапии: 187 (39,8%) мужчин, 283 (60,2%) женщины, из них 212 (45,1%) городских жителей и 258 (54,9%) сельских жителей. Средний возраст обследованных составил 69,5 ± 10,2 лет. Результаты. Из 377 (80,2%) пациентов должная антикоагулянтная терапия была назначена 162 (42,9%), антиагрегантная терапия — 191 (50,6%), и терапия не была назначена 24 (6,4%) больным при наличии абсолютных показаний. В качестве антикоагулянтной терапии 148 больным был назначен варфарин, адекватная антикоагуляция к концу года составила всего 12,2%. Новый оральный антикоагулянт — ривароксабан был назначен 14 (8,6%) пациентам. Врачами-терапевтами сельской местности 50% больным при необходимости антикоагулянтов была назначена антиагрегантная терапия. Заключение. В южных регионах республики наблюдается неблагоприятная ситуация с назначением антикоагулянтной терапии и ведением пациентов пожилого и старческого возраста. Необходимо продолжить исследования по другим регионам страны для получения полноценной и реальной картины по проблеме и выработки единой и соответствующей рекомендации. Background. The risks of thrombosis and bleeding increase simultaneously with age. At the same time, the elderly population derives more benefit from antithrombotic therapy than young individuals. Objectives: to study the current state of the anticoagulant therapy prescription for elderly and senile patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at the centers of family medicine in the southern regions of the Kyrgyz Republic. Patients/Methods. From 2000 outpatient medical records, 470 patients with nonvulvar AF were selected who had indications for prescribing antithrombotic therapy: 187 (39.8%) men, 283 (60.2%) women; 212 (45.1%) were urban residents and 258 (54.9%) were village residents. The average age was 69.5 ± 10.2 years. Results. From among 377 (80.2%) patients, needful anticoagulant therapy was prescribed to 162 (42.9%), 191 (50.6%) patients received antiplatelet therapy and therapy was not prescribed to 24 (6.4%) patients in the presence of absolute indications. Warfarin as anticoagulant therapy was prescribed to 148 patients; adequate anticoagulation by the end of the year was only 12.2%. A new oral anticoagulant — rivaroxaban was prescribed to 14 (8.6%) patients. In non-urban area primary care physicians prescribed antiplatelet therapy to 50% of patients who needed anticoagulants. Conclusions. An unfavorable situation is observed with the prescription of anticoagulant therapy and management of elderly and senile patients in the southern regions of the republic. It is necessary to continue study in other regions of the country in order to obtain a complete and real picture of the problem, and to develop a unified and relevant recommendation.

The ESC 2020 guidelines on the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) – Diagnostics

During ESC eCongress 2020 the new guidelines on the management of patients with atrial fibrillation were presented. It was assessed that lifetime risk for AF for individuals of 55 year of age is around one third. The purpose of current guideline is to facilitate uniform structured approach to AF care on each level of care. Management approach was summarized in five domains: CC -&gt; ABC. In terms of diagnostics – CC: Confirm AF; Characterise Clinically. Authors introduced two categories of AF: clinical AF (episodes duration of &gt; 30 s in single channel ecg or AF detected in 12-lead ecg) and subclinical AF (based on the evaluation of AHRE episodes stored in cardiac implantable electronic devices memory diagnosed with implantable loop recorders). Sensitivity of commonly available ambulatory screening tests to suspect AF (pulse taking, automated BP monitors, single lead ecg, smartphone apps, watches) range from 87 to 100% and specificity from 70 to 100%. Risk of stroke increases in patients with AHRE with higher daily burden and higher thromboembolic risk. Management of patients with AF is based on the ABC scheme: Anticoagulation / avoid stroke, Better symptom control, Comorbidities / Cardiovascular risk factor management.

Association between lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation and mortality in the oldest old.

Age is the strongest predictor of atrial fibrillation (AF), yet little is known about AF incidence in the oldest old. AF incidence declines after age 90 years, and morbidity is compressed into a brief period at the end of life. In this retrospective, longitudinal cohort study of patients (born 1905-1935), we examined cumulative lifetime incidence of AF and its impact on mortality. Data included records from 1 062 610 octogenarians, 317 161 nonagenarians, and 3572 centenarians. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate cumulative incidence of AF by age group, incidence rates were compared using log-rank tests, and Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate unadjusted hazard ratios. The primary outcome was AF incidence at age > 80 years; the secondary outcome was mortality. The cumulative AF incidence rate was 5.0% in octogenarians, 5.4% in nonagenarians, and 2.3% in centenarians. Octogenarians and nonagenarians had a higher risk of AF incidence compared to centenarians (adjusted hazard ratio 8.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.31-12.04; and 2.98, 95% CI: 2.17-4.1, respectively). The lowest hazard ratio for mortality in patients with AF compared to those without was 2.3 (95% CI: 2.3-2.4) in patients who were on antiplatelet and anticoagulant medication and had a score of 0 on the Elixhauser comorbidity index score. Although AF incidence increased with age, being a centenarian was associated with reduced incidence and compression of morbidity. Patients with AF had a higher adjusted mortality rate. However, data suggest that a regimen of anticoagulants and antiplatelets may reduce risk of mortality in patients over 80 with an AF diagnosis.

Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation according to optimal, borderline, or elevated levels of risk factors: cohort study based on longitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study

ObjectiveTo examine the association between risk factor burdens—categorized as optimal, borderline, or elevated—and the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation.DesignCommunity based cohort study.SettingLongitudinal data from the Framingham Heart Study.ParticipantsIndividuals free of...

Abstract P023: Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation by Race and Socioeconomic Status: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background: The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been previously reported in whites, but not in African Americans. Moreover, we lack current estimates of lifetime risk of AF that take into account recent trends in the incidence of this arrhythmia. Lifetime risk of AF by socioeconomic status has not been investigated before. Methods: We studied 15,343 whites and African Americans in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study who were followed for an average of 21 years (maximum 27 years). Total family income was categorized as &lt;$25,000, $25,000-$49,999, and ≥$50,000, and education as &lt; high school graduate, high school graduate, and at least some college. Incident AF was ascertained from study electrocardiograms, hospital discharge records, and death certificates. Lifetime risk of AF was estimated by a modified Kaplan-Meier method that accounted for the competing risk of death. Results: We identified 2760 AF cases during follow-up. Lifetime risk of AF was 36% (95% CI: 32-38%) in white men, 30% (26-32%) in white women, 21% (13-24%) in African American men, and 22% (16-25%) in African American women (Figure). Regardless of race and sex, incidence rates of AF decreased from the lowest to highest categories of income and education. In contrast, lifetime risk of AF increased in individuals with higher income and education in most sex-race groups. Cumulative incidence of AF was lower in those with higher income and education compared to their low socioeconomic status counterparts through earlier life, but was reversed after age 80. Conclusion: Lifetime risk of AF in a contemporary cohort in the United States was approximately 1 in 3 among whites and 1 in 5 among African Americans. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with cumulative incidence of AF before the last decades of life.

Sex Differences in Cardiac Arrhythmias: Clinical and Research Implications.

Sex differences have the potential to impact diagnostic and therapeutic interventions in a wide variety of medical conditions, and cardiac arrhythmias are no exception.1 Studies evaluating pathophysiology, disease course, and therapeutic options for cardiac arrhythmias have been performed predominantly in male patients. However, catheter and device-based therapies coupled with landmark clinical trials have contributed to an improved understanding of this important aspect. The objective of this review is to present the current state of knowledge on sex differences in cardiac arrhythmias with a focus on clinical management, while highlighting gaps in knowledge that would benefit from future investigation. ### Atrial Fibrillation and Atrial Flutter #### Disease Burden Atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) are the most commonly encountered tachyarrhythmias in clinical practice, with significant implications for public health and healthcare costs. Stroke, hospitalization, and loss of productivity are the major consequences of AF.2 The incidence of AF (per 1000 person-years) is reported to be between 1.6 and 2.7 in women and between 3.8 and 4.7 in men.2 The age-adjusted incidence and prevalence of AF is lower in women compared with that in men, and accordingly, the lifetime risk of AF from the Framingham Heart Study at 40 years of age was higher in men (26.0% for men versus 23.0% for women).3 Another analysis from the Framingham Heart Study demonstrated no significant sex differences in the risk of developing AFL.4 The prevalence of AF continues to rise among both men and women. In a study investigating the global burden of disease from 1980 to 2010, there was not only an increase in overall burden, incidence, and prevalence of AF, but most importantly an increase in AF-associated mortality in both men and women (Figure 1).5 The age-adjusted mortality for women was consistently higher compared with that for men from 1990 to 2010 (Figure …

Genetic Predisposition, Clinical Risk Factor Burden, and Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.

The long-term probability of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) considering genetic predisposition and clinical risk factor burden is unknown. We estimated the lifetime risk of AF in individuals from the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Polygenic risk for AF was derived using a score of ≈1000 AF-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Clinical risk factor burden was calculated for each individual using a validated risk score for incident AF comprised of height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking status, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, and history of heart failure. We estimated the lifetime risk of AF within tertiles of polygenic and clinical risk. Among 4606 participants without AF at 55 years of age, 580 developed incident AF (median follow-up, 9.4 years; 25th-75th percentile, 4.4-14.3 years). The lifetime risk of AF >55 years of age was 37.1% and was substantially influenced by both polygenic and clinical risk factor burden. Among individuals free of AF at 55 years of age, those in low-polygenic and clinical risk tertiles had a lifetime risk of AF of 22.3% (95% confidence interval, 15.4-9.1), whereas those in high-risk tertiles had a risk of 48.2% (95% confidence interval, 41.3-55.1). A lower clinical risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset after adjusting for genetic predisposition (P<0.001). In our community-based cohort, the lifetime risk of AF was 37%. Estimation of polygenic AF risk is feasible and together with clinical risk factor burden explains a substantial gradient in long-term AF risk.

Lifetime Risks, Projected Numbers, and Adverse Outcomes in Asian Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Report From the Taiwan Nationwide AF Cohort Study

Most data on the clinical epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) come from Western populations, and data for Asians are limited. We investigated the lifetime risk and projected number of AF among Asians. The annual risks of adverse events among patients with AF, time trends, and the risks compared with patients without AF were analyzed. Between 2000 and 2011, 289,559 patients aged≥ 20 years experienced new-onset AF in Taiwan. The incidence, prevalence, and lifetime risk of AF were calculated. The risk of adverse events among patients with AF were analyzed and compared with that of age- and sex-matched patients without AF. The incidence of AF in year 2011 was 1.51 per 1,000 person-years, with a lifetime risk of AF being appropriately 1 in 7 for subjects aged > 20 years. The prevalence of AF is estimated to be 4.01%in 2050. Compared with patients without AF, AF was associated with an increased risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.61), heart failure (aHR, 3.31), ischemic stroke (aHR, 3.34), dementia (aHR, 1.56), sudden cardiac death (aHR, 1.83), and myocardial infarction (aHR, 1.62); all P< .01. The risks of ischemic stroke, heart failure, and mortality were especially higher compared with patients without AF in the initial period (approximately 6months) after AF was first diagnosed. The burden of AF among Asian patients is increasing, with a lifetime risk of AF being 1 in 7. Optimized management of any associated comorbidities should be part of the holistic management approach for AF.

Prevalence, Incidence, and Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in China: New Insights Into the Global Burden of Atrial Fibrillation

Much of the epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) is based on data from Western populations. Despite the huge population of Asia, data on the clinical epidemiology of AF in Asian countries are limited. The current study aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of newly diagnosed (ie, incident) AF, as well as lifetime risk, in China and to determine the clinical risk factors contributing to its development. Using a medical insurance database involving > 10 million individuals for the years 2001 to 2012 in the southwest of China, trends in incident AF were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression. The usefulness of the CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes, stroke [doubled]) and CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 [doubled], diabetes, stroke [doubled], vascular disease, age 65-74, and sex category [female]) scores was tested in predicting the occurrence of incident AF. A total of 471,446 individuals (aged ≥ 20 years) were studied, with 1,924,975 person-years of experience. We identified 921 patients with incident AF (62% male; mean age, 62 years). The prevalence of incident AF in subjects aged ≥ 20 years was 0.2 per 100 people, with an incidence of AF of 0.05 per 100 person-years overall. Over an 11-year period, the prevalence of AF increased 20-fold, whereas AF-related stroke increased 13-fold. The lifetime risk of AF was approximately one in five among Chinese adults, and it increased with advancing age. The CHA2DS2-VASc score was superior to the CHADS2 score in predicting the risk of incident AF in our Chinese population (DeLong test, Z = 6.621, P < .001). The AF burden, as well as the risk of AF-related stroke, has increased significantly over the past 11 years in the southwest of China. The public health burden of AF and its complications are greatest in the very elderly, with major implications for health-care systems given the global burden of this common arrhythmia.

Genetic susceptibility to atrial fibrillation: does heart failure change our perspective?

This editorial refers to 'Genetic polymorphisms confer risk of atrial fibrillation in patients with heart failure: a population-based study', by J.G. Smith et al., published in this issue on pages 250-257.

Atrial fibrillation and cardiac resynchronization therapy: how should rate be controlled?

Atrial fibrillation and cardiac resynchronization therapy: how should rate be controlled?

Managing atrial fibrillation in the CRT patient: Controversy or consensus?

The cumulative incidence of new onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is substantial, exceeding 25% in multiple recent studies. Although AF patients undergoing CRT show improved echocardiographic parameters, functional status, and quality of life in, they benefit to a lesser degree than do patients in normal sinus rhythm. They also exhibit a trend toward increased mortality. Understanding the barriers to response from CRT among AF patients is critical to addressing the needs of growing populations of patients with AF and HF. Foremost among these are suboptimal biventricular pacing, often characterized by fusion or pseudo-fusion complexes, leading to inefficient CRT delivery. Furthermore, AF increases the risk of inappropriate shocks, which lead to substantial psychiatric morbidity, increased risk of heart failure hospitalization, and may also increase mortality. Assiduous rate control is reasonable for all AF patients receiving CRT, but there is a paucity of data regarding specific antiarrhythmic drug therapy recommendations. For patients with permanent AF and severe symptoms, atrioventricular junction ablation appears effective in improving response by ensuring biventricular capture and reducing implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shock burden in selected patients. Catheter-based techniques such as pulmonary vein isolation appear more attractive and in the future may offer further advantages and lower risks, particularly for patients with paroxysmal AF.