Lifetime Outcomes Research Articles

990-P: Estimating the National Costs of T2DM in the UK within the Context of Contemporary Guidelines

Background: The updated National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) type 2 diabetes (T2D) guidelines extend the recommendation of SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) for hyperglycaemia management to include their use in those with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), chronic heart failure (HF), chronic kidney disease (CKD) or high CVD risk. Our study estimates the potential cost consequence in the UK of the broad positioning of SGLT2i within updated guidelines (NG28-2022) versus previous guidelines (NG28-2015). Methods: The Cardiff T2D model was used to project lifetime outcomes and costs for T2D patients across established UK treatment pathways including metformin, sulfonylurea, DPP-4 inhibitors and NPH insulin with or without SGLT2i combination to reflect former vs. updated guidelines. Analyses were conducted in four subgroups (ASCVD, HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), CKD, high CVD risk). Projected outcomes were extrapolated to national level using population estimates from NICE’s guideline companion resource impact report. Results: Predicted lifetime costs for 1.7 Mn SGLT2i eligible T2D patients in the UK were estimated at £87.1 Bn with NG28-2022 compared to £101.7 Bn with NG28-2015. Net savings associated with NG28-2022 management of £14.56 Bn were attributable to comorbid CKD (£5.09 Bn), high CVD risk (£4.77 Bn), ASCVD (£3.96 Bn) and comorbid HFrEF (£0.74 Bn). Overall net savings were predicted despite an increase in pharmacy costs of £5.57 Bn. Changes in metabolic parameters and reduction in cardiovascular and kidney progression rates were predicted to prevent 20183 myocardial infarction events, 66651 HF events and 140303 events of end stage kidney failure. The magnitude of savings was a combination of event reductions and the number of eligible patients in subgroups. Conclusion: Our study indicates that uptake of SGLT2 inhibitors in line with NICE guidelines has the potential to improve health and be cost saving despite an increase in pharmacy costs. Disclosure P.Mcewan: Other Relationship; AstraZeneca. V.Foos: Other Relationship; AstraZeneca. R.Martin: Employee; AstraZeneca. J.Chen: Employee; AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly and Company.

Cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer in South Africa.

Colon cancer incidence is rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resource limitations and cost often dictate treatment decisions. In this study, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treatment in South Africa (ZA) and illustrate how such analyses can inform cancer treatment recommendations in a LMIC. We created a decision-analytic Markov model to compare lifetime costs and outcomes for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer treated with three adjuvant chemotherapy regimens in a public hospital in ZA: capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) for 3 and 6 months, and capecitabine for 6 months, compared to no adjuvant treatment. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in international dollars (I$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to the 2021 ZA gross domestic product per capita (I$13,764/DALY averted). CAPOX for 3 months was cost-effective for both patients with high-risk stage II and patients with stage III colon cancer (ICER = I$250/DALY averted and I$1042/DALY averted, respectively), compared to no adjuvant chemotherapy. In subgroup analyses of patients by tumor stage and number of positive lymph nodes, for patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer and T4 tumors, and patients with stage III colon cancer with T4 or N2 disease. CAPOX for 6 months was cost-effective and the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy in other settings will vary by local WTP thresholds. Decision analytic tools can be used to identify cost-effective cancer treatment strategies in resource-constrained settings. Colon cancer incidence is increasing in low- and middle-income countries, including South Africa, where resource constraints can impact treatment decisions. This cost-effectiveness study evaluates three systemic adjuvant chemotherapy options, compared to surgery alone, for patients in South African public hospitals after surgical resection for high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer. Doublet adjuvant chemotherapy (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) for 3 months is the cost-effective strategy and should be recommended in South Africa.

#5309 MODELLING LONG-TERM OUTCOMES FOR PATIENTS WITH IMMUNOGLOBULIN A NEPHROPATHY (IGAN) FROM SHORT-TERM PROTEINURIA DATA

Abstract Background and Aims Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is rare kidney disease that leads to glomerular injury, progressive loss of kidney function and progression to kidney failure. Pre-specified interim proteinuria data from ongoing clinical trials is being used as the basis of regulatory approval of new therapies but little is known about the translation of these results to long-term patient outcomes; a topic of particular interest to heath technology assessment (HTA) groups looking to inform decisions on reimbursement before final renal outcome data are available. The objective of this study was to model long-term outcomes for patients with IgAN based on short-term proteinuria data. Method We developed a de novo model including a short-term (36-week) decision tree and a long-term Markov model to capture expected lifetime outcomes associated with treatment for IgAN. We used achievement of proteinuria <1 g/day as a clinically relevant treatment target. The short-term model included data on proteinuria level and distribution of chronic kidney disease (CKD) health states (CKD 1/2, 3, 4, and 5). At the end of 36 weeks of treatment, patients were categorized into groups based on their proteinuria level (<1g/day and ≥1 g/day) and CKD stage before transitioning to the long-term Markov model. In the long-term model, proteinuria level-based, CKD health state transition matrices derived from analysis of UK National Registry of Rare Kidney Disease (RaDaR) data, and transition matrices to dialysis and transplant derived from the US Renal Data System (USRDS) were used. Other included clinical inputs of complications and mortality were derived from extension of US Optum data analyses and literature. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed as health state utilities and disutility associated with complications. Hypothetic scenarios of improvement in short-term proteinuria and impact on long term outcomes were tested. Model outputs included life years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Effectiveness was discounted at 3% annually. Deterministic sensitivity analysis was conducted. Results Over a lifetime, patients receiving treatment that increased the probability of achieving proteinuria <1 g/day by 10% in the short-term, were modelled to have gained an additional 0.388 LYs from reduced CKD/transplant/dialysis-related mortality and 0.633 QALYs from delaying CKD progression to kidney failure. As expected, results improved when the probability of achieving proteinuria <1 g/day increased; with a 30% increase in the probability of achieving proteinuria <1 g/day, LYs gained were 0.562 (Figure 1) and QALYs 0.968 (Figure 2). Results were most sensitive to time horizon and long-term extrapolation of CKD health state transition matrices. Conclusion Despite challenges inherent in the translation of surrogate endpoints to long-term outcomes, combining short-term proteinuria from clinical trials and long-term CKD data from real-world registry and claims-based data provides a solution. Based on modelling, treatments that increase the probability of achieving <1 g/day in the short-term, are expected to provide benefits to patients with IgAN in the long-term including less time with advanced kidney disease, less time on dialysis and avoiding the need for kidney transplant resulting in improved survival, and better quality of life. Refinement and customization of country-specific model inputs will help ensure outputs are relevant for different jurisdictions and as representative of anticipated real-world outcomes as possible.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pembrolizumab as an Adjuvant Treatment in Colombia for Melanoma Patients with Lymph Node Involvement After Complete Resection.

The KEYNOTE-054 trial found that adjuvant treatment with pembrolizumab improved recurrence-free survival versus placebo in completely resected high-risk stage III melanoma patients. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant pembrolizumab in Colombia compared with watchful waiting, a widely used strategy despite the high risk of recurrence with surgery alone. A four-health state [recurrence-free (RF), locoregional recurrence (LR), distant metastases (DM), and death) Markov model was developed to assess the lifetime medical costs and outcomes (3% annual discount), along with cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The transitions from the RF and LR states were modeled using KEYNOTE-054 data, and those from the DM state were modeled using data from the KEYNOTE-006 trial and a network meta-analysis of advanced treatments received after adjuvant pembrolizumab and watchful waiting. The health state utilities were derived from KEYNOTE-054 Euro-QoL data and literature. Costs are expressed in 2021 Colombian pesos (COP). Over a 46-year time horizon, patients on adjuvant pembrolizumab and watchful waiting were estimated to gain 9.69 and 7.56 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), 10.83 and 8.65 life-years (LYs), and incur costs of COP 663,595,726 and COP 563,237,206, respectively. The proportion of LYs spent in RF state was 84.63% for pembrolizumab and 72.13% for watchful waiting, yielding lower subsequent treatment, disease management, and terminal care costs for pembrolizumab. Adjuvant pembrolizumab improved survival by 2.18 LYs and 2.13 QALYs versus watchful waiting. The ICER per QALY was COP 47,081,917, primarily driven by recurrence rates and advanced melanoma treatments. The deterministic sensitivity analysis results were robust and consistent across various reasonable inputs and alternative scenarios. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of COP 69,150,201 per QALY, the probability of pembrolizumab being cost-effective was 65.70%. Pembrolizumab is cost-effective as an adjuvant treatment compared to watchful waiting among patients with high-risk stage III melanoma after complete resection in Colombia.

Cost-Effectiveness of Bariatric Surgery in Tunisia.

Obesity is a growing global issue with evidence linking it to an increase in loss of disease-free years, reduced quality of life, increased mortality, and additional economic burden. This study sought to establish the cost-effectiveness of gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy, compared to conventional therapy in patients with obesity, from a Tunisian healthcare payor perspective. A Markov model compared lifetime costs and outcomes of bariatric surgery with conventional treatment among patients with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 40 kg/m2, BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 with obesity-related co-morbidities (Group 1), or BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2 with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (Group 2). Inputs were sourced from the Tunisian Health Examination Survey, local clinician data and literature sources. Health states were associated with different cost and utility decrements. Changes in body mass index, systolic blood pressure, lipid ratio and diabetes remission rates were modelled on a yearly basis. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and net monetary benefit (NMB) were key outcomes. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to test the model's robustness. The model showed that the benefits of bariatric surgery were favorable compared to conventional treatment, with an ICER of 1844 TND/QALY in Group 1 patients and 2413 TND/QALY in Group 2 patients. Bariatric surgery resulted in a QALY gain of 3.26 per patient in Group 1 and a gain of 1.77 per patient in Group 2. At a willingness to pay threshold of 31,379 TND/QALY, the incremental NMB was 96,251 TND and 51,123 TND for Group 1 and Group 2, respectively. From the Tunisian healthcare payor perspective, bariatric surgery is cost-effective for patients with obesity and those with T2DM and obesity-related comorbidities. These findings may have impact on future decision-making on funding and reimbursement of bariatric surgery in Tunisia.

Economic model of community-based falls prevention: seeking methodological solutions in evaluating the efficiency and equity of UK guideline recommendations

BackgroundFalls significantly harm geriatric health and impose substantial costs on care systems and wider society. Decision modelling can inform the commissioning of falls prevention but face methodological challenges, including: (1) capturing non-health outcomes and societal intervention costs; (2) considering heterogeneity and dynamic complexity; (3) considering theories of human behaviour and implementation; and (4) considering issues of equity. This study seeks methodological solutions in developing a credible economic model of community-based falls prevention for older persons (aged 60 +) to inform local falls prevention commissioning as recommended by UK guidelines.MethodsA framework for conceptualising public health economic models was followed. Conceptualisation was conducted in Sheffield as a representative local health economy. Model parameterisation used publicly available data including English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and UK-based falls prevention trials. Key methodological developments in operationalising a discrete individual simulation model included: (1) incorporating societal outcomes including productivity, informal caregiving cost, and private care expenditure; (2) parameterising dynamic falls-frailty feedback loop whereby falls influence long-term outcomes via frailty progression; (3) incorporating three parallel prevention pathways with unique eligibility and implementation conditions; and (4) assessing equity impacts through distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) and individual-level lifetime outcomes (e.g., number reaching ‘fair innings’). Guideline-recommended strategy (RC) was compared against usual care (UC). Probabilistic sensitivity, subgroup, and scenario analyses were conducted.ResultsRC had 93.4% probability of being cost-effective versus UC at cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained under 40-year societal cost-utility analysis. It increased productivity and reduced private expenditure and informal caregiving cost, but productivity gain and private expenditure reduction were outstripped by increases in intervention time opportunity costs and co-payments, respectively. RC reduced inequality delineated by socioeconomic status quartile. Gains in individual-level lifetime outcomes were small. Younger geriatric age groups can cross-subsidise their older peers for whom RC is cost-ineffective. Removing the falls-frailty feedback made RC no longer efficient or equitable versus UC.ConclusionMethodological advances addressed several key challenges associated with falls prevention modelling. RC appears cost-effective and equitable versus UC. However, further analyses should confirm whether RC is optimal versus other potential strategies and investigate feasibility issues including capacity implications.

The lifetime burden following stroke: Long term impact of stroke on survival and quality of life.

The absolute burden of stroke in Korea is ever growing. Many studies have explored the outcomes of mortality, quality of life (QOL), and/or economic burden with limited periods of observation. Relatively few have addressed the lifetime outcomes that are estimated beyond the limited observation period of study samples. By combining QOL and the survival functions over a lifetime horizon, our aims were to estimate the quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and loss-of-QALE of patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in South Korea, and to compare them between genders. The survival function of stroke patients (n = 13,994) was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier's method from the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort of Korea (2002-2015), and then extrapolated to lifetime through a rolling-over algorithm. The QOL measurements, assessed by EuroQol 5-dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire, of stroke patients (n = 474) were extracted from the Korea Health Panel (KHP, 2008-2018) to estimate the QALE. All stroke patients were categorized by sex and two types of stroke: ischemic and hemorrhagic. Age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched referents were simulated from the Korean life tables to be integrated with the general population's QOL from the KHP to estimate the QALE of the referents. We calculated the loss-of-QALE by comparing the above two sets of QALE. The QALE and loss-of-QALE for ischemic stroke were 10.8 and 6.1 QALYs (quality-adjusted life years), respectively, and 14.0 and 9.0 QALYs for hemorrhagic stroke. The loss-of-QALE in men was 3.0 QALYs larger than that of women with hemorrhagic stroke (p < 0.05), while the difference for ischemic stroke was much smaller and statistically insignificant at 0.6 QALYs. The lifetime impact of stroke in Korea is large, especially for males who survived hemorrhagic stroke. Future studies assessing the lifetime needs for long-term care of stroke patients are warranted to quantify the burden of stroke from the societal perspective.

Protocol for the development of a core outcome set for the optimisation of treatment and follow-up of patients with an anorectal malformation (ARM): The ARM and OUtcome Review (ARMOUR)-project

BackgroundPrimary treatment of an anorectal malformation (ARM) is surgical restoration of the anatomy. These children can experience many problems later in life; therefore, a long-term follow-up by an experienced team...

Cost-effectiveness of Intensive vs Standard Blood Pressure Control Among Older Patients With Hypertension

Older patients with hypertension receiving intensive systolic blood pressure control (110-130 mm Hg) have lower incidences of cardiovascular events than those receiving standard control (130-150 mm Hg). Nevertheless, the mortality reduction is insignificant, and intensive blood pressure management results in more medical costs from treatments and subsequent adverse events. To examine the incremental lifetime outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of intensive vs standard blood pressure control in older patients with hypertension from the health care payer's perspective. This economic analysis was conducted with a Markov model to examine the cost-effectiveness of intensive blood pressure management among patients aged 60 to 80 years with hypertension. Treatment outcome data from the Trial of Intensive Blood-Pressure Control in Older Patients With Hypertension (STEP trial) and different cardiovascular risk assessment models for a hypothetical cohort of STEP-eligible patients were used. Costs and utilities were obtained from published sources. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) against the willingness-to-pay threshold was used to evaluate whether the management was cost-effective. Extensive sensitivity, subgroup, and scenario analyses were performed to address uncertainty. The US and UK population using race-specific cardiovascular risk models were conducted in the generalizability analysis. Data for the STEP trial were collected from February 10 to March 10, 2022, and were analyzed for the present study from March 10 to May 15, 2022. Hypertension treatments with a systolic blood pressure target of 110 to 130 mm Hg or 130 to 150 mm Hg. Incremental lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and ICER are discounted at the given rates annually. After simulating 10 000 STEP-eligible patients assumed to be 66 years of age (4650 men [46.5%] and 5350 women [53.5%]) in the model, the ICER values were ¥51 675 ($12 362) per QALY gained in China, $25 417 per QALY gained in the US, and £4679 ($7004) per QALY gained in the UK. Simulations projected that the intensive management in China being cost-effective were 94.3% and 100% below the willingness-to-pay thresholds of 1 time (¥89 300 [$21 364]/QALY) and 3 times (¥267 900 [$64 090]/QALY) the gross domestic product per capita, respectively. The US had 86.9% and 95.6% probabilities of cost-effectiveness at $50 000/QALY and $100 000/QALY, respectively, and the UK had 99.1% and 100% of probabilities of cost-effectiveness at £20 000 ($29 940)/QALY and £30 000 ($44 910)/QALY, respectively. In this economic evaluation, the intensive systolic blood pressure control in older patients produced fewer cardiovascular events and had acceptable costs per QALY gained, well below the typical willingness-to-pay thresholds. The cost-effective advantages of intensive blood pressure management in older patients were consistent over various clinical scenarios across different countries.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Deep Learning and Trained Human Graders for Diabetic Retinopathy Screening in a Nationwide Program.

Deep learning (DL) for screening diabetic retinopathy (DR) has the potential to address limited healthcare resources by enabling expanded access to healthcare. However, there is still limited health economic evaluation, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, on this subject to aid decision-making for DL adoption. In the context of a middle-income country (MIC), using Thailand as a model, we constructed a decision tree-Markov hybrid model to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes of Thailand's national DR screening program via DL and trained human graders (HG). We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the two strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to probe the influence of modeling parameters. From a societal perspective, screening with DL was associated with a reduction in costs of ~ US$ 2.70, similar quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) of + 0.0043, and an incremental net monetary benefit of ~ US$ 24.10 in the base case. In sensitivity analysis, DL remained cost-effective even with a price increase from US$ 1.00 to US$ 4.00 per patient at a Thai willingness-to-pay threshold of ~ US$ 4.997 per QALY gained. When further incorporating recent findings suggesting improved compliance to treatment referral with DL, our analysis models effectiveness benefits of ~ US$ 20 to US$ 50 depending on compliance. DR screening using DL in an MIC using Thailand as a model may result in societal cost-savings and similar health outcomes compared with HG. This study may provide an economic rationale to expand DL-based DR screening in MICs as an alternative solution for limited availability of skilled human resources for primary screening, particularly in MICs with similar prevalence of diabetes and low compliance to referrals for treatment.

Cortical thickness and curvature abnormalities in patients with major depressive disorder with childhood maltreatment: Neural markers of vulnerability?

Childhood maltreatment has been related to various disadvantageous lifetime outcomes. However, the brain structural alterations that occur in major depressive disorder (MDD) patients with childhood maltreatment are incompletely investigated. We extensively explored the cortical abnormalities including cortical volume, surface area, thickness, sulcal depth, and curvature in maltreated MDD patients. Twoway ANOVA was performed to distinguish the effects of childhood maltreatment and depression on structural abnormalities. Partial correlation analysis was performed to explore the relationship between childhood maltreatment and cortical abnormalities. Moreover, we plotted the receiver operating characteristic curve to examine whether the observed cortical abnormalities could be used as neuro biomarkers to identify maltreated MDD patients. We reach the following findings: (i) relative to MDD without childhood maltreatment, MDD patients with childhood maltreatment existed increased cortical curvature in inferior frontal gyrus; (ii) compared to HC without childhood maltreatment, decreased cortical thickness was observed in anterior cingulate cortex and medial prefrontal cortex in MDD patients with childhood maltreatment; (iii) we confirmed the inseparable relationship between cortical curvature alterations in inferior frontal gyrus as well as childhood maltreatment; (iv) cortical curvature abnormality in inferior frontal gyrus could be applied as neural biomarker for clinical identification of MDD patients with childhood maltreatment. Childhood maltreatment have a significant effects on cortical thickness and curvature abnormalities involved in inferior frontal gyrus, anterior cingulate cortex and medial prefrontal cortex, constituting the vulnerability to depression.

Psychopathological networks in psychosis: Changes over time and clinical relevance. A long-term cohort study of first-episode psychosis

BackgroundFirst-episode psychosis is a critical period for early interventions to reduce the risk of poor outcomes and relapse as much as possible. However, uncertainties about the long-term outcomes of symptomatology remain to be ascertained. MethodsThe aim of the present study was to use network analysis to investigate first-episode and long-term stages of psychosis at three levels of analysis: micro, meso and macro. The sample was a cohort of 510 patients with first-episode psychoses from the SEGPEP study, who were reassessed at the long-term follow-up (n = 243). We used the Comprehensive Assessment of Symptoms and History for their assessments and lifetime outcome variables of clinical relevance. ResultsOur results showed a similar pattern of clustering between first episodes and long-term follow-up in seven psychopathological dimensions at the micro level, 3 and 4 dimensions at the meso level, and one at the macro level. They also revealed significant differences between first-episode and long-term network structure and centrality measures at the three levels, showing that disorganization symptoms have more influence in long-term stabilized patients. ConclusionsOur findings suggest a relative clustering invariance at all levels, with the presence of two domains of disorganization as the most notorious difference over time at micro level. The severity of disorganization at the follow-up was associated with a more severe course of the psychosis. Moreover, a relative stability in global strength of the interconnections was found, even though the network structure varied significantly in the long-term follow-up. The macro level was helpful in the integration of all dimensions into a common psychopathology factor, and in unveiling the strong relationships of psychopathological dimensions with lifetime outcomes, such as negative with poor functioning, disorganization with high antipsychotic dose-years, and delusions with poor adherence to treatment. These results add evidence to the hierarchical, dimensional and longitudinal structure of psychopathological symptoms and their clinical relevance in first-episode psychoses.

Lifetime economic potential of mobile stroke units in acute stroke care: A model-based analysis of the drivers of cost-effectiveness

Background and purpose To simulate patient-level costs, analyze the economic potential of telemedicine-based mobile stroke units for acute prehospital stroke care, and identify major determinants of cost-effectiveness, based on two recent prospective trials from the United States and Germany. Methods A Markov decision model was developed to simulate lifetime costs and outcomes of mobile stroke unit. The model compares diagnostic and therapeutic pathways of ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and stroke mimic patients by conventional care or by mobile stroke units. The treatment outcomes were derived from the B_PROUD and the BEST-mobile stroke unit trials and further input parameters were derived from recent literature. Uncertainty was addressed by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A lifetime horizon based on the US healthcare system was adopted to evaluate different cost thresholds for mobile stroke unit and the resulting cost-effectiveness. Willingness-to-pay thresholds were set at 1x and 3x gross domestic product per capita, as recommended by the World Health Organization. Results In the base case scenario, mobile stroke unit care yielded an incremental gain of 0.591 quality-adjusted life years per dispatch. Mobile stroke unit was highly cost-effective up to a maximum average cost of 43,067 US dollars per patient. Sensitivity analyses revealed that MSU cost-effectiveness is mainly affected by reduction of long-term disability costs. Also, among other parameters, the rate of stroke mimics patients diagnosed by MSU plays an important role. Conclusion This study demonstrated that mobile stroke unit can possibly be operated on an excellent level of cost-effectiveness in urban areas in North America with number of stroke mimic patients and long-term stroke survivor costs as major determinants of lifetime cost-effectiveness.

Evaluation of emerging NASH therapies: the impact of treatment efficacy profiles on long-term health outcomes.

Aim: Evaluations of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) treatments require predicting lifetime outcomes from short-term clinical trials. Materials & methods: A Markov model with NASH fibrosis stages F0-F3, NASH resolution, compensated cirrhosis (F4/CC), and liver-related complication (LRC) states was developed using literature-based standard of care (SoC) data. Hypothetical efficacy profiles were defined affecting resolution (100%-increase), fibrosis improvement (100% increase), or fibrosis worsening (50% decrease). Results: For the SoC, 10-year LRC rates increased with baseline fibrosis stage (F1: 3.0%; F2: 9.8%; F3: 27.2%; F4/CC: 64.9%). The fibrosis worsening profile reduced predicted 10-year LRC rates (F1: 1.9%; F2: 6.5%; F3: 19.1%; F4/CC: 55.0%) more than the resolution and fibrosis improvement profiles (F1: 2.6%/2.6%; F2: 8.5%/8.3%; F3: 23.3%/23.0%; F4/CC: NA/59.0%). Scenario analyses considered alternative SoC progression, treatment efficacy and treatment-stopping rules. Conclusion: Potential NASH efficacy profiles have differing impacts on predicted long-term outcomes, providing insights for future stakeholders.

Cost-Effectiveness of iGlarLixi Versus Premix BIAsp 30 in People with Type 2 Diabetes Suboptimally Controlled by Basal Insulin in the US.

IntroductionMany people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) experience suboptimal glycemic control and require therapy advancement. This cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to compare iGlarLixi (insulin glargine 100 U/mL plus lixisenatide) versus BIAsp 30 (biphasic insulin aspart 30) in people with T2DM suboptimally controlled with basal insulin.MethodsThe IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was used to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes for people with T2DM from a US healthcare payer perspective. Initial clinical data were based on the phase 3 randomized, open-label, active-controlled SoliMix clinical study, which compared the efficacy and safety of once-daily iGlarLixi with twice-daily BIAsp 30. Lifetime costs (US$) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were predicted, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for iGlarLixi versus BIAsp 30 was estimated; the willingness-to-pay threshold was considered to be $50,000. A subgroup analysis considered people with T2DM aged ≥ 65 years.ResultsEstimated QALYs gained were slightly higher with iGlarLixi compared with BIAsp 30 (9.3 vs. 9.2), with lower costs for iGlarLixi ($117,854 vs. $120,109); the ICER for iGlarLixi was therefore considered dominant over BIAsp 30 in the base case. Key drivers for cost savings were the higher dose and twice-daily administration for BIAsp 30 versus once-daily administration for iGlarLixi. The robustness of the base-case results was confirmed by sensitivity and scenario analyses. Results were similar in a subgroup of people with T2DM aged ≥ 65 years.ConclusionIn people with T2DM with suboptimal glycemic control on basal insulin, iGlarLixi confers improved QALYs and reduced costs compared with BIAsp 30.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13300-022-01300-5.

Snared in an Evil Time: How Age-Dependent Environmental and Demographic Variability Contribute to Variance in Lifetime Outcomes.

AbstractTo what degree is lifetime success determined by innate individual quality versus external events and random chance, whether success is measured by lifetime reproductive output, life span, years that a tree spends in the canopy, or some other measure? And how do external events and chance interact with development (survival and growth) to drive success? To answer these questions, we extend our earlier age partitioning of luck in lifetime outcomes in two ways: we incorporate effects of external environmental variation, and we subdivide demographic luck into contributions from survival and growth. Applying our methods to four case studies, we find that luck in survival, in growth, or in environmental variation can all be the dominant driver of success, depending on life history, but variation in individual quality remains a lesser driver. Luck in its various forms is most important at very early ages and again close to the time when individuals typically first begin to be successful (e.g., entering the canopy, reaching reproductive maturity), but different forms of luck peak at different times. For example, a favorable year can boost a tree into the canopy, while luck in survival is required to take full advantage of that fortunate event.

The cost-effectiveness, of pegcetacoplan compared with ravulizumab for the treatment of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria, in a UK setting.

Aim: Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) is a rare blood disorder characterized by hemolytic anemia, bone marrow failure and thrombosis. We evaluated, the cost-effectiveness of pegcetacoplan, a novel proximal C3 inhibitor, versus ravulizumab in patients with PNH and hemoglobin levels <10.5 g/dl despite eculizumab treatment in the UK healthcare and social services setting. Materials & methods: A Markov cohort framework model, based on the data from the pivotal trial of pegcetacoplan (PEGASUS/NCT03500549), evaluated lifetime costs and outcomes. Patients transitioned through 3 PNH hemoglobin level/red blood cell transfusion health states. Results: Pegcetacoplan provides lower lifetime costs/greater quality-adjustedlifeyears (£6,409,166/14.694QALYs, respectively) versus ravulizumab (£6,660,676/12.942QALYs). Conclusion: Pegcetacoplan is associated with enhanced anemia control, greater QALYs and reduced healthcare costs versus ravulizumab in the UK healthcare and social services setting.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Combination Empagliflozin and Standard Treatment Versus Standard Treatment Alone in Thai Heart Failure Patients with Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Clinical trials reported the benefit of empagliflozin when combined with standard treatment relative to cardiovascular death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization in patients with heart failure with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF and HFpEF, respectively). We conducted a cost-utility analysis of combination empagliflozin and standard treatment (ST) versus ST alone in Thai HF patients with HFrEF or HFpEF. A Markov model was employed to capture lifetime direct medical costs and outcomes from a healthcare system perspective. Two cohorts (HFrEF and HFpEF) with an average age of 60years were enrolled. The clinical inputs were the results of the EMPEROR-Reduced and EMPEROR-Preserved studies, and a Thai database. Costs were gathered from published studies or from a Thai hospital database. Utilities were obtained from published studies. All costs and outcomes were discounted at a rate of 3% per annum. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated, and sensitivity analyses were performed. In patients with HFrEF, add-on empagliflozin yielded a life-year gain of 0.26, and a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.20 at an increased total cost of 409.82 USD compared to ST alone [ICER: 69,218 THB/QALY (2064.98 USD/QALY gained)]. Among HFpEF patients, add-on empagliflozin yielded a life-year gain of 0.07, and a QALY gain of 0.05 at an increased total cost of 622.49 USD compared to ST alone [ICER: 395,826 THB/QALY (11,809 USD/QALY gained)]. At the local Thai threshold of 4773.27 USD/QALY, empagliflozin is a cost-effective add-on treatment for patients with HFrEF, but not for patients with HFpEF.

Cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colon cancer in South Africa.

6599 Background: Colon cancer (CC) incidence is rising globally, and case fatality rates are greatest in low-income settings, such as South Africa (SA). Adjuvant chemotherapy is standard of care for high-risk stage II and stage III CC in the US. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy for CC in SA public hospitals. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model comparing lifetime costs and outcomes for 60-year-old high-risk stage II and stage III CC patients treated in a SA public hospital with no adjuvant chemotherapy, versus: capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) for 3 or 6 months or capecitabine for 6 months. High-risk stage II was defined as ≥1 of: T4 disease; poorly differentiated tumor; lymphovascular/perineural invasion; &lt;12 lymph nodes dissected, bowel obstruction/perforation. Transition probabilities were derived from clinical trials estimating toxicity, disease recurrence, and survival. Costs from a SA societal perspective and utility estimates were obtained from literature and local expert opinion. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in international dollars (I$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold equal to 2021 GDP/capita of SA (I$13,764). Results: CAPOX for 3 months was the cost-effective strategy for stage III CC at a lifetime cost of I$5,284 and 5.55 DALYs averted, compared to no adjuvant treatment. All other strategies were absolutely dominated. For high-risk stage II CC, CAPOX for 3 months was the cost-effective strategy (ICER = I$711/DALY averted). No adjuvant chemotherapy was on the efficiency frontier, with a lower lifetime cost, but no DALYs averted. The results of one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses showed that the model is most sensitive to CC recurrence rate. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, CAPOX for 3 months was optimal in 88% of iterations for high-risk stage II CC and 79% of iterations for stage III CC. Conclusions: CAPOX for 3 months is the cost-effective adjuvant treatment for high-risk stage II and stage III CC in SA public hospitals. This strategy offers the highest quality of life benefit for the lowest cost and is well within the WTP threshold for SA. The optimal strategy in other settings will vary according to local WTP thresholds. Base case estimates of cost-effectiveness, in order of cost. [Table: see text]

Cost-Effectiveness of iGlarLixi Versus Premix BIAsp 30 in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Suboptimally Controlled by Basal Insulin in the UK.

IntroductioniGlarLixi is indicated as an adjunct to diet and exercise in addition to metformin (with or without sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) to improve glycemic control in adults with insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes (T2D). A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted to compare iGlarLixi with premix biphasic insulin aspart 30 (BIAsp 30) in people with T2D suboptimally controlled with basal insulin (BI).MethodsThe IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model was used to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes for people with T2D from a UK health care perspective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000. Initial clinical data were based on the phase 3 randomized, open-label, active-controlled SoliMix clinical trial which compared the efficacy and safety of once-daily iGlarLixi with that of twice-daily BIAsp 30. Costs associated with management and complications and utilities values were derived from published sources. Lifetime costs (in £GBP) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were predicted; extensive scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsEstimated QALYs gained were slightly higher with iGlarLixi (8.9 vs. 8.8) compared with premix BIAsp 30, at a higher cost (£23,204 vs. £21,961). The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY was £13,598. Treatment acquisition was the main driver of cost differences (iGlarLixi, £11,750; premix BIAsp 30, £10,395). Costs associated with management and complications were generally similar between comparators.ConclusioniGlarLixi provides improved QALY outcomes at an acceptable cost compared with premix BIAsp 30, with an ICER below the threshold generally considered acceptable by UK authorities. In people with T2D, iGlarLixi is a simple, cost-effective option for advancing therapy of BI, with fewer daily injections than premix BIAsp 30.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13300-022-01267-3.