Lifeline Services Research Articles

Decision support for prioritizing critical societal services in optimal post-disaster critical lifeline recovery

AbstractCritical societal services, such as health care, education, law enforcement, and emergency response, are key to societal well-being and safety. Disruption to these services may arise from direct damage to the buildings from which the services are provided, or indirectly as a consequence of damage to supporting lifelines. The order in which lifeline elements are restored post-disaster affects not only the timing for restoring the lifeline services to its customers, but also the timing for restoring critical services that rely on these lifelines. In this paper, a mathematical formulation of the problem of prioritizing critical societal services in lifeline service restoration treated by multiple, specialized crews and exact algorithmic approach for its solution are proposed. Two approaches to accelerate the solution algorithm for use in realistic settings, where efficiency and scalability are essential, are presented. The developed techniques can be embedded in a decision support tool for real-time application with real-time information. To illustrate the proposed modeling and solution methodology and assess its efficiency for large, complex multi-lifeline applications, numerical experiments were run on a synthetic yet real-world network involving three key lifelines, including power, water, and transportation, as well as two hospitals that rely on them. The analysis of this case study shows that cross-lifeline collaboration in prioritization and scheduling in restoration action affects not only the return of services from the individual lifelines, but also of critical services on which, particularly in disaster settings, lives may depend.

Technology in Suicide Prevention: Fears and Functionality for Crisis Supporters

Background: Crisis supporters at Lifeline Australia consistently engage with distressed and often suicidal help‐seekers. The development of technological methods, such as machine learning (ML), in suicide prevention may complement their support work. Investigating attitudes towards the use of ML in crisis support is an important first step.Aims: The current study is aimed at investigating crisis supporters’ attitudes towards ML in crisis support/suicide prevention, beliefs about the effect of technology on the service and help‐seeking, and concerns/opinions about any future technology implementation.Methods: Two hundred fifty‐five crisis supporters aged 20–84 years were recruited through Lifeline Australia. Participants voluntarily completed an anonymous questionnaire, including measures of attitudes towards technology as well as open‐text options, which provided the data for a thematic analysis.Results: Crisis supporters were neutral to negative on an adapted measure of ML use in crisis support. Less than one‐third held the belief that technology would enhance Lifeline services, and over half of the participants felt help‐seekers would be less likely to contact Lifeline if technology was implemented. Thematic analysis of the open‐text questions revealed loss of human connection and mistrust of algorithms to be the most prominent barriers to future technological adoption by Lifeline crisis supporters.Limitations: Clearly defining terms of ML and technology was difficult to do in this hypothetical context, potentially impacting the attitudes expressed.Conclusions: Any new technology to support crisis supporters needs to be carefully codesigned with the workforce to ensure effective implementation and avoid any potential or perceived negative impacts on help‐seekers.

A simple network-based probabilistic method for estimating recovery of lifeline services to buildings after an earthquake

The assessment of how to regain pre-event functionality of buildings after an earthquake within an adequate time has gained attention in the last years, where a critical aspect is to identify the restoration time of the lifeline services that serve those buildings. Existing studies focused on developing frameworks for specific topologies and hazard levels. These methods are mostly out of reach for practicing engineers because of the necessity of identifying the network topology, performing complex network analysis, or conducting a regional seismic hazard analysis. This study develops a generic, network-based probabilistic method to estimate the restoration time of interdependent lifeline services to buildings after an earthquake. By avoiding the complexities above, this method links lifeline networks to utility service restoration to generate service restoration curves useful for building functional recovery assessments. An application to Shelby County and Napa is presented, showing reasonable agreement with more complex network-based analyses. Due to limitations in estimating component quantities and fragility information in regions without data, as well as other assumptions, differences are observed while comparing this method to more rigorous approaches. Still, those differences are acceptable considering the scope of this work for supporting building decision analyses.

Analysis of the influencing factors on industrial resilience to flood disasters using a semi-markov recovery model: A case study of the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan

Industrial sectors are progressively threatened by the risk associated with flood disasters. They are also increasingly aware that building resilience is critical for their continuity, competitiveness, and survival. However, empirical evidence of industrial resilience to flood disasters is rarely provided, especially for the impact of infrastructure disruptions, resourcefulness, and other socioeconomic factors on industry resilience. Hence, this study presents a parametric semi-Markov recovery model to quantitatively estimate the business recovery rate, which is conditional on initial damage and can evaluate the recovery of industrial sectors to flood disasters. Additionally, the susceptibility of business resilience to inundation depth, deposited sediment, lifeline services (i.e., electricity, water, gas), and transportation were investigated by incorporating these covariates into the recovery function. The proposed model was applied to a case study of the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan. The recovery data from 535 individual businesses were analyzed, revealing an estimated average production capacity loss rate of 7.16% and 6.13% in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, respectively. By comparing the PCLR under different damage scenarios, results indicate that inundation depth and lifeline supply status significantly affect total losses. Analyzing the dynamic resilience of firms could help calculate the production capacity losses caused by flood disasters. It can also provide empirical evidence for decision-makers and business managers to allocate reconstruction resources in the aftermath of disasters and to establish business continuity plans to avoid potential losses in the future.

National Suicide Prevention Lifeline 2020 In-State Answer Rates, Stratified by Call Volume Rates and Geographic Region.

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article DatapointsFull AccessNational Suicide Prevention Lifeline 2020 In-State Answer Rates, Stratified by Call Volume Rates and Geographic RegionJonathan Purtle, Dr.P.H., M.Sc., Michael A. Lindsey, Ph.D., M.S.W., Ramesh Raghavan, Ph.D., Elizabeth A. Stuart, Ph.D.Jonathan PurtleSearch for more papers by this author, Dr.P.H., M.Sc., Michael A. LindseySearch for more papers by this author, Ph.D., M.S.W., Ramesh RaghavanSearch for more papers by this author, Ph.D., Elizabeth A. StuartSearch for more papers by this author, Ph.D.Published Online:14 Jul 2022https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ps.202200020AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail On July 16, 2022, the number 988 will become the new toll-free dialing code for the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline (the major crisis telephone hotline in the United States) (1). Lifeline calls are initially routed to crisis centers within the caller’s state. If the call cannot be answered in a reasonable amount of time, it is rerouted to an out-of-state crisis center. Answering calls within the same state as the caller is considered to be a best practice because crisis center staff can effectively connect callers to local resources. The “in-state answer rate”—defined as the percentage of Lifeline calls originating from a state that are answered in that state—is a Lifeline quality metric, with 90% being the benchmark goal. This analysis characterized variation across states’ in-state answer rates and assessed associations with rates of Lifeline call volume and geographic region.State-level 2020 data on in-state answer rates and number of Lifeline calls—excluding calls from veterans (state mean=25.0% of calls) and Spanish speakers (state mean=1.4% of calls), because callers from these populations are routed to separate Lifelines—were obtained from publicly available Lifeline reports (2). Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau (3) and Department of Veterans Affairs (4), we estimated the number of nonveteran residents within each state in 2020. We used these data to calculate a rate of Lifeline calls per 1,000 nonveteran state residents. This served as a population size–adjusted measure of demand for Lifeline services.The mean±SD in-state answer rate was 71.3%±19.5%, and the range was 10.0% (Minnesota) to 98.2% (Rhode Island). Only seven states were at or above 90.0%. Mean in-state answer rates by U.S. Census region were as follows: Northeast, 76.1%; West, 76.7%; South, 70.6%; and Midwest, 62.7% (F=1.32). The mean Lifeline call volume rate per 1,000 nonveteran state residents was 5.54±1.33, and the range was 3.75 (Maine) to 11.00 (Alaska). No correlation was found between a state’s in-state answer rate and its Lifeline call volume rate (Spearman correlation=−0.11, Pearson correlation=0.06) (Figure 1).FIGURE 1. National Suicide Prevention Lifeline 2020 in-state answer rates and call volume rates for each U.S. stateaa The line is the correlation between in-state answer rate and call volume per 1,000 residents for all 50 states.We found a substantial variation in Lifeline in-state answer rates across states. The absence of an inverse correlation between in-state answer rates and call volume rates suggests that low in-state answer rates are not the result of high demand for Lifeline services. Understanding how to improve in-state answer rates is important because Lifeline call volume is projected to potentially triple following the launch of the new 988 dialing code (5).Department of Public Health Policy and Management, Global Center for Implementation Science, School of Global Public Health (Purtle), McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy and Research (Lindsey), and Silver School of Social Work (Raghavan), New York University, New York City; Department of Mental Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore (Stuart).Send correspondence to Dr. Purtle ([email protected]). Tami L. Mark, Ph.D., and Alexander J. Cowell, Ph.D., are editors of this column.The authors report no financial relationships with commercial interests.References1 Hogan MF, Goldman ML: New opportunities to improve mental health crisis systems. Psychiatr Serv 2021; 72:169–173Link, Google Scholar2 National Suicide Prevention Lifeline State Reports. Rockville, MD, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/lifeline-state-reports/. Accessed Jan 8, 2022Google Scholar3 State Population Totals: 2010–2020. Suitland, MD, US Census Bureau, 2021. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-state-total.html. Accessed Jan 8, 2022Google Scholar4 National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics. Washington, DC, US Department of Veterans Affairs. https://www.va.gov/vetdata/veteran_population.asp. Accessed Jan 8, 2022Google Scholar5 988 Appropriations Report. Rockville, MD, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2021. https://www.samhsa.gov/sites/default/files/988-appropriations-report.pdfGoogle Scholar FiguresReferencesCited byDetailsCited byGrowing inequities in mental health crisis services offered to indigent patients in Puerto Rico versus the US states before and after Hurricanes Maria and Irma8 November 2022 | Health Services Research, Vol. 50 Volume 74Issue 2 February 01, 2023Pages 204-205 Metrics KeywordsCrisis interventionSuicide and self-destructive behaviorPublic policy issuesPDF download History Received 9 January 2022 Revised 14 March 2022 Accepted 20 May 2022 Published online 14 July 2022 Published in print 1 February 2023

Help-seeker expectations and outcomes of a crisis support service: Comparison of suicide-related and non-suicide-related contacts to lifeline Australia.

Lifeline Australia aims to prevent suicide and support community members in personal crisis via the provision of free anonymous telephone, online chat and text message services. This study aimed to identify the expectations and outcomes of Lifeline help-seekers, including whether there are differences between suicide-related and non-suicide-related contacts. Help-seekers (N=553) who had previously contacted Lifeline via telephone, online chat, or text message crisis services were recruited via social media and a link provided after Lifeline service use, who completed an online survey about their awareness, expectations and outcomes of Lifeline's services. The responses from help-seekers who self-reported suicide-related and non-suicide-related reasons for contact were compared. Participants were highly aware of Lifeline's services, particularly the phone service. The main expectations of all help-seekers were to feel heard and listened to, feel less upset and feel understood. There were 59.5% of the sample that reported suicidality as a reason for contact. Suicide-related contacts endorsed more reasons for contact than non-suicide-related contacts. Expectations of suicide-related help-seekers were greater, but they were less likely to report that their expectations were met. The high expectations and complexity of suicide-related contacts reveal the challenges in meeting the needs of this high-priority group, particularly within the context of the multiple demands on crisis support services.

Investigation of construction material quality and workmanship defects of RC buildings collapsed and severely damaged in the 6.8 Mw Sivrice, Elazığ, Turkey earthquake, January 2020

In the Sivrice, Elazığ, Turkey earthquake on January 24, 2020, 41 people lost their lives, more than 1600 people were injured, 672 buildings collapsed, and around 12600 buildings were severely damaged due to poor construction quality. After such devastating earthquakes, damage assessment and forensic investigations are normally carried out quickly for a judicial process, and material qualities are revealed. However, emotional sensitivity of the victims in the earthquake affected zone and disruptions in key lifeline services such as transportation, electricity supply often make these processes difficult. After the Elazığ earthquake, along with the conventional in-situ core sampling method, concrete pieces were collected from columns of collapsed and severely damaged buildings and transported out of the earthquake zone to overcome these adverse conditions. Unlike in the conventional method where the whole sampling process is carried out in the earthquake zone, the core extraction from the transported concrete pieces was carried out outside the earthquake-affected area. The extracted concrete samples were checked for compliance with the prevailing material standards. Moreover, multiple reinforcing bars of various diameters were also extracted and tested to check their compliance with the standards. Besides, the results of examination of the quality of materials and workmanship used in the construction are also discussed, along with the precautions required to minimize fatalities and damage from similar buildings.

Empirical tornado resilience model for light-framed wood residential buildings

An empirical tornado resilience model based on structural functionality, a metric with clearly defined physical states, is developed for light-framed wood residential buildings using field observations of damage and recovery following the February 2017 tornado in Naplate, IL. The resilience model is composed of independent damage and recovery models that serve as a complete resilience model for residential buildings measured with the metric of structural functionality. Structural functionality is the most basic function of a building, the ability to safely provide shelter, and includes both the structural system and the building envelope. This model may be integrated into external resilience models that include measurements of other functionality components, such as lifeline services and building services, to construct a model of total functionality that includes all functionality components necessary for occupancy. The empirical tornado resilience model for light-framed wood residential buildings is an observation-based resilience model for residential buildings subject to tornado damage. It addresses the overlapping critical research needs for studies of tornado hazard, studies of residential resilience, and studies that provide a basis for validation, without replicating the existing body of resilience analysis frameworks. The included analysis using the indicators of structural functionality for wind-damaged structures reveals that some buildings trend toward zero functionality (demolition) during community-level recovery and that clear differences exist in the recovery behavior of buildings with similar post-storm structural functionality. Exponential structural functionality recovery functions are found to be appropriate for most levels of damage. Heavily damaged buildings are observed to follow a normal/s-shaped recovery.

Characterizing Uncertainty in City-Wide Disaster Recovery through Geospatial Multi-Lifeline Restoration Modeling of Earthquake Impact in the District of North Vancouver

Restoring lifeline services to an urban neighborhood impacted by a large disaster is critical to the recovery of the city as a whole. Since cities are comprised of many dependent lifeline systems, the pattern of the restoration of each lifeline system can have an impact on one or more others. Due to the often uncertain and complex interactions between dense lifeline systems and their individual operations at the urban scale, it is typically unclear how different patterns of restoration will impact the overall recovery of lifeline system functioning. A difficulty in addressing this problem is the siloed nature of the knowledge and operations of different types of lifelines. Here, a city-wide, multi-lifeline restoration model and simulation are provided to address this issue. The approach uses the Graph Model for Operational Resilience, a data-driven discrete event simulator that can model the spatial and functional cascade of hazard effects and the pattern of restoration over time. A novel case study model of the District of North Vancouver is constructed and simulated for a reference magnitude 7.3 earthquake. The model comprises municipal water and wastewater, power distribution, and transport systems. The model includes 1725 entities from within these sectors, connected through 6456 dependency relationships. Simulation of the model shows that water distribution and wastewater treatment systems recover more quickly and with less uncertainty than electric power and road networks. Understanding this uncertainty will provide the opportunity to improve data collection, modeling, and collaboration with stakeholders in the future.

Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions

Lifeline disruptions can represent a serious economic threat at various scales. However, firm-level empirical evidence regarding the consequences and reliability of lifeline services, and how lifeline service disruptions impact on economic losses after disasters, is still lacking. This study applies a temporal, non-homogeneous, Markov process approach that explicitly considers multiple lifeline service disruptions. This approach is used to quantitatively estimate the impacts of multiple lifeline disruptions on business production capacity losses. The model is illustrated based on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake case study with detailed information obtained from individual business recovery data. The result indicates that the restoration of lifeline systems during disruptions should consider each business service given that it significantly affects business production capacity recovery. For example, the case study results indicate that if electrical power, water and gas are disrupted, restoration of electrical power supply yields the highest influence on production capacity improvement, amounting to 15% per day on average, compared with 10% per day for gas restorations, and 8% per day for water restoration. The proposed model can provide information to business managers and policymakers on the optimum recovery strategy and on how to mitigate economic losses in disruption event cases.

Estimating lifeline resilience factors using post-disaster business recovery data

Recent studies have discussed lifeline resilience factors for industrial sectors. However, these results are derived from business surveys on hypothetical disasters or estimations based on expert opinions: this is mainly due to a lack of data from businesses that actually experienced lifeline disruptions after a disaster. Therefore, this study proposes a modeling framework to estimate the remaining proportions of production capacity after lifeline disruptions due to a disaster, called lifeline resilience factors, in different business sectors. Lifeline resilience factors are estimated using a production function based on responses from a post-disaster business survey in areas affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. A comparative study between the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors was conducted to understand their relative resilience and vulnerability. The results show the varying importance of different lifeline services among sectors and are consistent with those of existing studies. These findings make a significant contribution in confirming the reliability and stability of lifeline services for post-disaster economic impact analysis.

Community Lifeline Framework for Leveraging Stabilization in Response and Recovery to Major Hurricanes.

The United States (US) and Caribbean regions remain vulnerable to the impact of severe tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons. In 2017, a series of hurricanes posed threats to residents living in inland and coastal communities as well as on islands isolated from the US mainland. Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria caused catastrophic infrastructure damage, resulting in a loss of electrical power and communications due to damaged or downed utility poles, cell towers, and transmission lines. Critical services were inoperable for many months. Emergency managers are public officials who are accountable to both political leaders and the citizens. During disaster events, emergency managers must prioritize areas of effort, manage personnel, and communicate with stakeholders to address critical infrastructure interdependences. Essential lifeline services (eg, energy and communications) were inoperable for many months, which led to increased attention from policy-makers, media, and the public.

Assessment of Seismic Liquefaction of Soil Site at Mundra Port, India, Using CPT and DMT Field Tests

Cyclic soil liquefaction in the past has resulted in severe damage to structures and lifeline services. Mostly, standard penetration test and cone penetration test (CPT) are used for evaluation of liquefaction; however, the dilatometer test (DMT) is better suitable due to its ability to detect soil stress history and aging. This study aims to compare the DMT-based cyclic resistance ratio (CRR) correlations available in the literature with well-established CPT-based CRR correlation at a site in Mundra, Gujarat, that had moderately liquefied in 2001 during the Bhuj earthquake. The available earthquake history is scaled using attenuation relationship for Peninsular India, and the peak ground acceleration is assessed by ground response analysis using the CPT data. The factor of safety (FSL) against liquefaction is evaluated using field data obtained from CPT and DMT. Also, Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI), settlement (S) and Liquefaction Severity Number (LSN) are evaluated to determine the consequence of liquefaction, and the performance of the foundations supported on liquefied soil. The results verify the liquefaction damage observed in 2001 during the Bhuj earthquake and indicate that the site possesses a moderate risk of liquefaction. It shows that the site is susceptible to minor to moderate consequences of liquefaction, such as sand boils and small damage to existing structures. It also indicates that the CPT-based CRR correlation is conservative compared to DMT-based CRR correlation and warrants the use of independent DMT-based CRR correlations or use of at least two methods to assess liquefaction at critical sites.

Hotels as Critical Hubs for Destination Disaster Resilience: An Analysis of Hotel Corporations’ CSR Activities Supporting Disaster Relief and Resilience

Disaster management has begun to examine the unique role of the private sector in disaster relief. The hotel and lodging industry is an especially critical infrastructure for community disaster relief and resilience, providing many lifeline services in addition to core skills and competencies contributing to the community’s social and human capital. Social and human capital empower the community to better cope with disturbance, and companies’ efforts to build social and human capital are often tied to their corporate social responsibility (CSR) management systems. A framework was developed to evaluate the management system maturity of the hotel and lodging industry’s CSR management for disaster relief and resilience. An analysis of three hotel and lodging corporations was performed to understand the current state of the industry. While many hotel properties are engaging in CSR activities during disaster relief, the analysis revealed that corporate management systems have room for maturation and growth to support the resilience of their community.

Is There a Need for LGBT-Specific Suicide Crisis Services?

Background: Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) youth are more than twice as likely to attempt suicide than their peers. Although LGBT-specific crisis services have been developed, little is known about the need for these services beyond that of general lifeline services. Aims: The present study sought to (a) describe the primary reasons for calling a specialized provider as opposed to another and (b) examine sociodemographic differences in the primary reason by race, ethnicity, gender, age, and sexual orientation. Method: Data from 657 youth who sought crisis services from an LGBT-specific national service provider in the United States were assessed. Logistic regression models assessed demographic differences. Thematic analysis of open-ended responses regarding reasons for choosing this LGBT-specific crisis service provider followed a consensus model. Results: Most respondents indicated they either would not have contacted another helpline (26%) or were not sure (48%). Nearly half (42%) indicated they called specifically because of LGBT-affirming counselors, a reason more commonly reported by gender minority (transgender and gender nonbinary) and queer or pansexual youth than cisgender, gay, or lesbian youth. Conclusion: LGBT-specific crisis services appear to play an important role in suicide prevention. Further research is needed to understand the use of culturally tailored suicide prevention approaches.

Accessibility to Italian remote regions: Comparison among different transport alternatives

Historically, for geographically disadvantaged areas or those with a low level of infrastructure, air transport services are often considered to be lifeline services. In the last decades, investments in the airport sector have been promoted as a way to increase accessibility to many Italian regions. On the other side, transport services have also witnessed important changes as the entrance of low cost carriers, the development of high speed railway services or the liberalization of the long distance coach transport sector. These services, together with an improved intermodality, could provide an alternative to access areas of the country.The paper, adopting a policymaker perspective, studies the different transport alternatives available to connect the zones in the catchment area of an airport without scheduled services, computing the minimum generalized cost (GC). Two scenarios are also analyzed in terms of possible strategies to improve accessibility levels reducing the GC. The first one assumes two daily public service obligations from the local airports to two main airports while the second scenario studies the effect of an improvement of the bus connections to the closest airport with scheduled services from the zones in the catchment area of the local airport. Simulations are based on a multimodal national transport model describing the entire Italian long distance supply for the period 2013/2014. It allows the calculation of the GC by road, rail, coach and air services. The GC provides a clear and comparable measure to understand the role of different transport modes in providing domestic connections. Results show how the more an area is remote the more a PSO could be effective while whereas ground alternatives are present the effect of air PSO is reduced. Moreover, improving ground accessibility to the main airports has a wider impact in terms of decrease of the minimum GC and in the number of zones experiencing a reduction. This paper aims to contribute to the literature on the accessibility from areas with a low level of infrastructure. It also represents a support for policy makers when promoting, drafting or reconsidering their own regional air transport programs and as well for airport manager when considering alternatives to improve airport ground accessibility.

Value of travel time savings and willingness to pay for regional aviation

Despite their immense importance to regional and remote communities, regional air services are often commercially not viable and need public support. That support, and hence the existence of such lifeline services, is often questioned by stakeholders and policy makers. While the value of these services is high to the passengers and businesses that are located in regional, rural and remote areas, there is only anecdotal and no robust evidence available on the value of such services to people who live in metropolitan areas. This paper applies mixed logit choice models to a large sample of the Sydney metropolitan area to establish, for a first time, empirical evidence on the value of travel time savings (VTTS) and the willingness to pay for regional air services. While car is the most preferred option for regional travel (chosen most), we find a median willingness to pay of $99 per hour for leisure travel via plane and $153 per hour for business travel. Additional analysis on VTTS for different modes across leisure versus business travel is also conducted, providing for a more detailed understanding of each traveller type and willingness to pay differences between the various groups. The findings are of substantial value to regional airlines, airports, regulators, funding bodies and policy makers as they show that regional aviation is not only invaluable to the regions but also of high value to residents and business travellers residing in metropolitan areas.

Public service obligations for air transport in the United States and Europe: Connectivity effects and value for money

Public service obligations (PSOs) are used by governments in many countries, including the United States and 11 countries in Europe, to mandate a minimum level of commercial air transportation service, especially for small or rural communities. This paper analyzes PSOs in these 12 countries for the year 2010 using the recently proposed Global Connectivity Index to measure direct and indirect market access and a novel subsidy database covering 90% of PSO movements in these countries to assess value-for-money.We show that PSO services represent about 2.5% of all commercial movements in the 12 countries analyzed, generating about 1% of these countries’ total air transport connectivity. Over all routes for which data was available, approximately USD$ 900 million was earmarked for PSO and air service discount provision in 2010, with average subsidies per movement ranging from about $700 to $3500. PSO market access and efficiency outcomes vary across the countries analyzed. Some countries, such as Germany and the United States, focus on providing network access for smaller communities, thereby creating not only point-to-point, but also onward connectivity, while others such as Norway, Sweden, and Ireland, predominantly aim at providing “lifeline services” that connect remote regions to a nearby economic center without providing onward connections.

Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario

AbstractThe business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajec...

An exact reanalysis technique for storm surge and tides in a geographic region of interest

Understanding the effects of storm surge in hurricane-prone regions is necessary for protecting public and lifeline services and improving resilience. While coastal ocean hydrodynamic models like ADCIRC may be used to assess the extent of inundation, the computational cost may be prohibitive since many local changes corresponding to design and failure scenarios would ideally be considered. We present an exact reanalysis technique and corresponding implementation that enable the assessment of local subdomain changes with less computational effort than would be required by a complete resimulation of the full domain. So long as the subdomain is large enough to fully contain the altered hydrodynamics, changes may be made and simulations performed within it without the need to calculate new boundary values. Accurate results are obtained even when subdomain boundary conditions are forced only intermittently, and convergence is demonstrated by progressively increasing the frequency at which they are applied. Descriptions of the overall methodology, performance results, and accuracy, as well as case studies, are presented.