A simple network-based probabilistic method for estimating recovery of lifeline services to buildings after an earthquake

Abstract

The assessment of how to regain pre-event functionality of buildings after an earthquake within an adequate time has gained attention in the last years, where a critical aspect is to identify the restoration time of the lifeline services that serve those buildings. Existing studies focused on developing frameworks for specific topologies and hazard levels. These methods are mostly out of reach for practicing engineers because of the necessity of identifying the network topology, performing complex network analysis, or conducting a regional seismic hazard analysis. This study develops a generic, network-based probabilistic method to estimate the restoration time of interdependent lifeline services to buildings after an earthquake. By avoiding the complexities above, this method links lifeline networks to utility service restoration to generate service restoration curves useful for building functional recovery assessments. An application to Shelby County and Napa is presented, showing reasonable agreement with more complex network-based analyses. Due to limitations in estimating component quantities and fragility information in regions without data, as well as other assumptions, differences are observed while comparing this method to more rigorous approaches. Still, those differences are acceptable considering the scope of this work for supporting building decision analyses.