Life Table Method Research Articles

Population Growth Performance of Arma custos (Faricius) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) at Different Temperatures.

Arma custos (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) is a natural predator that can control various agricultural and forestry pests. This study aimed to clarify the effects of temperature on the growth, reproduction, and population of the predator and to simulate its population growth. Using the age–stage, two-sex life table method, 18°C, 22°C, 26°C, 30°C, and 34°C were selected as the temperature conditions. A. custos can complete its life cycle at 18°C–30°C, and the developmental duration of each A. custos stage, adult pre-oviposition period, total pre-oviposition period, and the mean generation time (T) were shortened with the increase in temperature. The pre-adult mortality was significantly reduced at 26°C and 30°C. In addition, the fecundity of a single female and the gross reproductive rate were the highest at 30°C. Significant differences were observed in the intrinsic rate of increase (r) and the finite rate of increase (λ) under different temperature conditions, and both reached the maximum at 30°C. Results showed that adult A. custos raised at 26°C had a longer lifespan and the fecundity was higher at 30°C in comparison with the other temperatures. This study is the first to report the life cycle of A. custos at different temperatures, and the results can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the indoor artificial reproduction, outdoor release, and colonization of A. custos.

Factors Affecting on the Unemployment Hazard Rate of the Elderly Persons with Disabilities

본 연구는 고령 장애인의 노후 경제적 불안문제의 해법을 모색하기 위해서 장애인고용패널 2차 웨이브 종단자료를 활용하여 고령 장애인의 실업탈출 요인을 분석하였다. 이를 위해 사건사분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 첫째, 생명표 분석을 통해 실업기간별 고령장애인의 실업탈출 가능성의 변화를 분석한 결 과, 최장 실업기간(48개월)까지 실업상태로 남아 있는 비율은 77.57%이고 노동시장에 진입한 비율은 22.4%에 불과한 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 고령 장애인의 실업탈출에 영향요인을 파악하고자 콕스비례헤 저드 모형으로 분석한 결과, 여성에 비해 남성의 경우, 연령이 낮을수록, 비수급가구일수록, 경증일수록, 건강상태가 양호할수록 실업탈출 가능성이 높아지는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 교육수준이 낮을수록, 자 격증을 소유할수록 그리고 장애차별 경험이 없을수록 취업가능성이 높아지는 것으로 분석되었다. 이를 통해서 고령 장애인의 실업탈출을 촉진하기 위해서는 고령장애인의 인적자본을 강화하는 조치가 마련되어야 하며, 고령장애인의 노동시장 유인을 확대하기 위해 연령특성을 반영할 수 있는 방향으로 공공부조제도를 보완할 필요가 있음을 제시하였다. 끝으로 여성고령장애인의 실업탈출 확대를 위한 여성장애인 우대정책이 마련되어야 함을 제언하였다.This study analyzed the hazard of unemployment and the influencing factors on the rate of the elderly persons with disabilities. Data came from the secondary wave profile data of the Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled(PSED). For the main purpose of this study, the life-table method was used for describing the patterns of unemployment duration by the Elderly Persons with Disabilities, and the cox proportional hazard model was used to identify significant factors on the unemployment duration. The results were as follows. First, according to the life table analysis, the unemployment rate of the elderly with disabilities to remain until the longest period of unemployment (48month) is 77.57%, and the rate of entry into the labor market was only 22.4%. Second, looking at the results from the cox proportional hazards model, the unemployment escape possibility was increased for those who are male, are the lower age, are non- public benefit recipient, have mild disability, have health condition and have less discrimination experiences. In addition, it was analyzed that the lower the level of education, having more the license, and the less experienced disability discrimination, the higher possibility of unemployment escape. With these results, it was suggested that measures should be taken to strengthen the human capital of the elderly with disabilities to promote unemployment of the elderly, and that the public assistance system needs to be supplemented in a way that reflects age characteristics in order to expand the incentive for the elderly. Finally, it was needed that the affirmative action for women with disabilities should be prepared to expand an escape from unemployment of women with elderly disabilities.

Evaluation of resistance of six chickpea cultivars to the cowpea weevil, Callosobruchus maculatus (F.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Bruchinae) with age-stage, two-sex life table

The cowpea weevil, Callosobruchus maculatus (F.), is an important insect of stored grains with a worldwide distribution. The effect of six chickpea cultivars namely Adel, Azad, Azkan, Hashem, Goksu, and Mansour on the life history, population growth, and reproduction parameters of C. maculatus was investigated in the laboratory at 30 ± 2 oC, 60 ± 5% RH and 12L:12D, using the age-stage, two-sex life table method. The cowpea weevils fed on Azkan, Azad, and Goksu cultivars have a longer total development period, whereas those fed on Adel cultivar, have shorter ones. The longer longevity occurs in the insects fed on Goksu, Azad, and Adel cultivars, respectively, whereas, shorter ones in Hashem cultivar. The cowpea weevil females fed on Azkan and Hashem cultivars have higher and lower fecundity, respectively. The intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) shows a more increase in the cowpea weevil populations in Adel than Azad cultivar. The highest and lowest age-specific fertilities occur in Azkan and Hashem, respectively. The C. maculatus female weight decreases and increases with feeding on the cultivars Azad and Adel, respectively. Based on our findings, Adel is a moderately susceptible and Azad and Hashem are resistant hosts for feeding C. maculatus. So, resistant cultivars may be a safe and clean method for stored crop preservation and storage pest control.

Clinical Outcomes of Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant in Multiple Myeloma Patients: A 5-year Experience from a Single Centre in North India.

Swati PabbiIntroduction Multiple myeloma (MM) forms a significant proportion of hematological malignancies. Autologous transplantation continues to be an effective consolidation strategy in resource-restricted settings such as India. Objectives The main objective of the study was to analyze the clinical outcomes of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) in MM patients in a single tertiary care center in north India over a period of 5 years. Materials and Methods This retrospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care center in north India. Data of all MM patients who underwent HSCT between January 2014, and December 2018, were analyzed. The outcome of HSCT was investigated in terms of transplant-related mortality (TRM), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and relapse. PFS and OS were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method and differences between the groups were tested for statistical significance using the two-tailed log-rank test. Life-table method was used for the estimation of survival rate at 1, 3, 5, and 6 years. Results Patient characteristics and survival post-transplant was similar to other published Indian studies. In total, 378 patients were diagnosed with MM in our hospital between 2014 and 2018. One hundred ninety-three patients were found to be eligible for autologous HSCT, out of which 52 ended up having a transplant giving us a high percentage (26.9%) of patients receiving a transplant in our setting. Transplant-related mortality (TRM) was nil in the present study. The mean PFS and OS were 62.8 and 70.1 months, respectively. The mean PFS and OS rates at 5 years were 75.3% and 84.2%, respectively. The average cost estimate of HSCT in our setting was 7.2 lakh Indian national rupees. Conclusion Autologous HSCT is a safe procedure with nil 100-day mortality in present series. Moreover, considering the cost of novel agents, autologous transplant remains a cost-effective way for prolonging remission and time-to-next treatment in India.

Changes in time spent walking and disability-free life expectancy in Japanese older people: The Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study

An increase in time spent walking is significantly associated with lower risks of mortality and disability. This study aimed to investigate the association between changes in time spent walking and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in community-dwelling older people.Thirteen-year follow-up data from a cohort study of 7105 Japanese older adults (age ≥ 65 years) in 2006 were analyzed. Information on time spent walking was collected using questionnaires at two time points (1994 and 2006). Based on this information, the participants were categorized into four groups according to changes in time spent walking: remained inactive, became inactive, became active, and remained active. DFLE was defined as the average number of years a person could expect to live without disability. The multistate life table method using a Markov model was used to calculate DFLE.Of those who were inactive in 1994, DFLE of those who became active in 2006 (20.30 years in men; 24.06 years in women) was longer by about 2 years than of those who remained inactive (17.96 years in men; 21.87 years in women), and it was as long as those who remained active (20.34 years in men; 24.16 years in women). The 2-year difference in DFLE did not change after the participants were stratified by body mass index, motor function, cognitive function, and history of diseases.Increase in time spent walking is associated with longer DFLE in Japanese older people. Encouraging simple physical activity such as walking at the population level could increase life-years lived in good health.

Healthy lifestyle and life expectancy at age 30 years in the Chinese population: an observational study

The improvement of life expectancy is one of the aims of the Healthy China 2030 blueprint. We aimed to investigate the extent to which healthy lifestyles are associated with life expectancy in Chinese adults. We used the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study to examine the relative risk of mortality associated with individual and combined lifestyle factors (never smoking or quitting not for illness, no excessive alcohol use, being physically active, healthy eating habits, and healthy body shape). Participants with coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, or missing values for body-mass index were excluded. For analysis of chronic respiratory diseases, participants with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma were excluded. We estimated the national prevalence of lifestyle factors using data from the China Nutrition and Health Surveillance (CNHS; 2015) and derived mortality rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2015). All three data sources were combined to estimate the life expectancy of individuals at age 30 years following different levels of lifestyle factors by using the life table method. The cause-specific decomposition of the life expectancy differences was analysed using Arriaga's method. After the exclusion of CKB participants with coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, or missing BMI data at baseline, 487 209 were included in the primary analysis. Participants with COPD or asthma at baseline were additionally excluded for chronic respiratory disease-related analysis, leaving 451 233 participants with data available for analysis. Data from 171 127 adults aged 30-84 years from the CNHS 2015 were used to estimate the sex-specific and age-specific prevalence of lifestyle-related factors. There were 42 496 deaths documented over a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·2-12·1) in CKB. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of participants adopting five versus 0-1 low-risk factors was 0·38 (95% CI 0·34-0·43) for all-cause mortality, aHR 0·37 (0·30-0·46) for cardiovascular disease mortality, aHR 0·47 (0·39-0·56) for cancer mortality, and aHR 0·30 (0·14-0·64) for chronic respiratory disease mortality. The life expectancy at age 30 years for individuals with 0-1 low-risk factors was on average 41·7 years (95% CI 41·5-42·0) for men and 47·3 years (46·6-48·0) for women. For individuals with all five low-risk factors, the life expectancy at age 30 was 50·5 years (95% CI 48·5-52·4) for men and 55·4 years (53·5-57·4) for women; meaning a difference of 8·8 years (95% CI 6·8-10·7) for men and 8·1 years (6·5-9·9) for women. The estimated extended life expectancy for men and women was mainly attributable to reduced death from cardiovascular disease (2·4 years [27% of the total extended life expectancy] for men and 3·7 years [46%] for women), cancer (2·6 years [30%] for men and 0·9 years [11%] for women), and chronic respiratory disease (0·6 years [7%] for men and 1·2 years [15%] for women). Our findings suggest that increasing the adoption of these five healthy lifestyle factors through public health interventions could be associated with substantial gains in life expectancy in the Chinese population. National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust.

Patient-specific factors affecting survival following hip fractures-a 14-year follow-up study in Finland.

SummaryThe mortality of elderly hip fracture patients is high. Eighty-five percent of all patients were followed until death. The three most protective factors for 1-year survival were ASA class; BMI; and age, and the four most protective factors for 14-year survival were age; BMI; ASA class; and subtrochanteric fracture type.ObjectiveHip fractures are associated with increased mortality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the protective preoperative factors regarding the survival of short-term (1 year) and long-term (14 years) follow-up in a hip fracture cohort in Finland.MethodsA total of 486 patients, operated on in 2005 and 2006, were retrospectively evaluated. Survival was analyzed using Bayesian multivariate analysis and relative survival with the life table method. All patients were followed for a minimum of 14 years.ResultsWe analyzed 330 women and 156 men, whose mean ages were 82.4 and 72.0 years, respectively. The overall mortality rate was 7% at 1 month, 22% at 12 months, and 87% at 14 years. Protective factors against mortality at 1 year were ASA class (1–3), BMI ≥ 20 kg/m2, age < 85 years, alcohol involvement, Alzheimer’s disease, no comorbidities, certain operative methods, and female sex. Factors promoting survival at 14 years were age < 75 years, BMI ≥ 20 kg/m2, ASA class (1–2), subtrochanteric fracture, certain operative methods, alcohol involvement, and no comorbidities.ConclusionsProtective factors for 1-year survival in order of importance were ASA class, BMI, and age, and, correspondingly, for 14-year survival, age, certain operative methods, BMI, and ASA class. The relative survival of hip fracture patients was lower than that of the general population.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11657-022-01148-z.

Bayesian Multistate Life Table Methods for Large and Complex State Spaces: Development and Illustration of a New Method.

Multistate life table methods are an important tool for producing easily understood measures of population health. Most contemporary uses of these methods involve sample data, thus requiring techniques for capturing uncertainty in estimates. In recent decades, several methods have been developed to do so. Among these methods, the Bayesian approach proposed by Lynch and Brown has several unique advantages. However, the approach is limited to estimating years to be spent in only two living states, such as "healthy" and "unhealthy." In this article, the authors extend this method to allow for large state spaces with "quasi-absorbing" states. The authors illustrate the new method and show its advantages using data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate U.S. regional differences in years of remaining life to be spent with diabetes, chronic conditions, and disabilities. The method works well and yields rich output for reporting and subsequent analyses. The expanded method also should facilitate the use of multi-state life tables to address a wider array of social science research questions.

Overall lifestyles and socioeconomic inequity in mortality and life expectancy in China: the China health and nutrition survey

socioeconomic inequity in mortality and life expectancy remains inconclusive in low- and middle-income countries, and to what extent the associations are mediated or modified by lifestyles remains debatable. we included 21,133 adults from China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991-2011) and constructed three parameters to reflect participants' overall individual- (synthesising income, education and occupation) and area-level (urbanisation index) socioeconomic status (SES) and lifestyles (counting the number of smoking, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet and bodyweight). HRs for mortality and life expectancy were estimated by time-dependent Cox model and life table method, respectively. during a median follow-up of 15.2years, 1,352 deaths were recorded. HRs (95% CIs) for mortality comparing low versus high individual- and area-level SES were 2.38 (1.75-3.24) and 1.84 (1.51-2.24), respectively, corresponding to 5.7 (2.7-8.6) and 5.0 (3.6-6.3) life-year lost at age 50. Lifestyles explained ≤11.5% of socioeconomic disparity in mortality. Higher lifestyle risk scores were associated with higher mortality across all socioeconomic groups. HR (95% CI) for mortality comparing adults with low individual-level SES and 3-4 lifestyle risk factors versus those with high SES and 0-1 lifestyle risk factors was 7.06 (3.47-14.36), corresponding to 19.1 (2.6-35.7) life-year lost at age 50. this is the first nationwide cohort study reporting that disadvantaged SES was associated with higher mortality and shorter life expectancy in China, which was slightly mediated by lifestyles. Risk lifestyles were related to higher mortality across all socioeconomic groups, and those with risk lifestyles and disadvantaged SES had much higher mortality risks.

Global water quality changes posing threat of increasing infectious diseases, a case study on malaria vector Anopheles stephensi coping with the water pollutants using age-stage, two-sex life table method.

BackgroundWater pollution due to uncontrolled release of chemical pollutants is an important global problem. Its effect on medically important insects, especially mosquitoes, is a critical issue in the epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases.MethodsIn order to understand the effect of water pollutants on the demography of Anopheles stephensi, colonies were reared in clean, moderately and highly polluted water for three consecutive generations at 27 °C, 75% RH, and a photoperiod of 12:12 h (L:D). The demographic data of the 4th generation of An. stephensi were collected and analysed using the age-stage, two-sex life table.ResultsThe intrinsic rate of increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ), mean fecundity (F) and net reproductive rate (R0) of An. stephensi in clean water were 0.2568 d−1, 1.2927 d−1, 251.72 eggs, and 109.08 offspring, respectively. These values were significantly higher than those obtained in moderately polluted water (r = 0.2302 d−1, λ = 1.2589 d−1, 196.04 eggs, and R0 = 65.35 offspring) and highly polluted water (r = 0.2282 d−1, λ = 1.2564 d−1, 182.45 eggs, and R0 = 62.03 offspring). Female adult longevity in moderately polluted (9.38 days) and highly polluted water (9.88 days) were significantly shorter than those reared in clean water (12.43 days), while no significant difference in the male adult longevity was observed among treatments.ConclusionsThe results of this study showed that An. stephensi can partially adapt to water pollution and this may be sufficient to extend the range of mosquito-borne diseases.

Analysis of 5-Year Survival Rate after Surgery for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Women

Abstract&#x0D; Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of death in men and women worldwide. The average five-year survival rate for patients with lung cancer is 22% and is significantly lower than the survival rate for other cancers.&#x0D; Aim: The aim of the study was to determine the five-year survival rate in women after surgery for non-small cell lung cancer.&#x0D; Methods: A prospective cohort study was performed on 59 operated women with primary lung cancer for the period 2011-2020 in the "Second Surgical Clinic" - University Hospital "St. George" and in the Department of "Special Surgery" - Medical University, Plovdiv. Five-year survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Life-tables method.&#x0D; Results: The mean age of the study group was 58.51 ± 10.84. Out of 59 operated patients, 39 (66.1%) survived and 20 (33.9%) survived the follow-up period. The group with the highest survival rate was in the IA stage - 53.14 months (4.42 years). This group has also the lowest mortality rate. The five-year survival at this stage was 71.4%. In stage IV, 57.1% of the patients survived a 60-month period, and in stage IIA and IIB, 42.9% and 33.3%, respectively. In stage IIIA is the largest number of operated patients. The five-year survival rate in this group was 25%. In stage IV, a five-year survival rate of 12.5% ​​was reported.&#x0D; Conclusions: The five-year survival of women operated on for lung cancer depends on the stage at which the disease is diagnosed and the extent of surgery.&#x0D;

Survival and disease burden trend analysis of occupational pneumoconiosis from 1963 to 2020 in Shizuishan City

Objective: To understand the survival status and its influencing factors of occupational pneumoconiosis patients in Shizuishan City, and to analyze the disease burden of occupational pneumoconiosis and its trend, so as to provide scientific basis for formulating comprehensive prevention and treatment measures of occupational pneumoconiosis. Methods: A retrospective survey was conducted during July to December 2020 to explore the survival status of occupational pneumoconiosis patients who had been reported from 1963 to 2020 in Shizuishan City. The Kaplan-Meier method and Life-table method were used for survival analysis, and Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of survival time. The disability adjusted life years (DALY) was applied to analyze the disease burden of occupational pneumoconiosis and its temporal trend. Results: From 1963 to 2020, a total of 3263 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis were reported in Shizuishan City, of which 1467 died, so that the fatality rate was 44.96%. The median survival time was 26.71 years, average age of death was (70.55±10.92) years old. There were significant differences in the survival rates of occupational pneumoconiosis patients among different types, diagnosis age, exposure time, industry, initial diagnosis stage and whether upgraded (P<0.05) . As the survival time increased, the survival rate of patients decreased gradually. When the survival time was ≥50 years, the cumulative survival rate of patients was 4.20%. Cox regression analysis suggested that the type of pneumoconiosis, industry, diagnosis age, exposure time, initial diagnosis stage and whether upgraded were the influencing factors for the survival time of patients with occupational pneumoconiosis (P<0.05) . The total DALY attributable to occupational pneumoconiosis from 1963 to 2020 in Shizuishan City was 48026.65 person years, of which the years of life lost (YLL) was 15155.39 person years, and the average YLL was 10.33 years/person, and the years lost due to disability (YLD) was 32871.26 person years, and the average YLD was 10.07 years/person. The DALY attributed to coal worker's pneumoconiosis and silicosis were 39408.51 person years and 6565.02 person years, respectively, and they accounted for 82.06% and 13.67% of the total disease burden in Shizuishan City, respectively. The DALY caused by occupational pneumoconiosis in the age group of 40-49 years old and the first diagnosis of stage I occupational pneumoconiosis were higher, which were 20899.71 and 36231.97 person years, respectively. The average YLL and average YLD showed a volatility downtrend over time. Conclusion: The disease burden of occupational pneumoconiosis cannot be ignored in Shizuishan City, and timely targeted measures should be taken for key populations and key industries. It is recommended that life-cycle health management and hierarchical medical should be taken to improve the life quality of patients and prolong their lifes.

Enhancing Cancer Control Through a Population-Based Cancer Registry in Cali, Colombia: Results From 20-Year Cancer Survival Trends

PURPOSE Population-based survival is a strategic measure of the health system efficiency when managing cancer in a country. By analyzing data from a city in a middle-income country, we aimed to generate further hypotheses about cancer survival that may have a national impact on cancer control. METHODS Cancer cases were collected using the Population-Based Cancer Registry from Cali, Colombia, from 1998 to 2017. We examined the survival of nine cancers or groups of malignancies in patients aged 15-99 years old. The 5-year net survival (NS) was estimated using the Pohar-Perme method. Survival analyses were calculated using the life table method for each calendar year, single year of age, and sex. We used the cohort approach for patients diagnosed in 1998-2012 and the period approach during 2013-2017. RESULTS A total of 59,911 patients were available for analysis. The cancer types included n = 7,460 (12.5%) stomach, n = 6,760 (11.3%) colorectal, n = 6,760 (11.3%) lung, n = 5,164 (8.6%) breast, n = 11,755 (19.6%) cervix, n = 11,284 (18.8%) prostate, n = 4,054 (6.8%) thyroid, n = 2,076 (3.5%) myeloid neoplasia, and n = 6,735 (11.2%) lymphoma. For men, prostate cancer had the highest NS (79.9%-90.1%), whereas thyroid cancer (87.1%-95.7%) in women. Lung and stomach cancer had the lowest survival rate (&lt; 25%) in both sexes. Myeloid neoplasia had the largest variation in survival (15.9%-52.7% for men; 12.5%-49.8% for women), followed by lymphoma (27.6%-55.4% for men; 37.3%-53.4% for women) and colorectal cancer (38.5%-54% for men; 37.1%-55.7% for women). Patients with cervix cancer experienced no change in survival (54.4%-53%) and breast cancer increased approximately 10% (70.8%-81.1%) but remained stable during the last decade. CONCLUSION Our results in survival trends provide insights into the main types of cancer and their burden to the health system. These data contribute to evidence for national cancer prevention policies and the monitoring of the Cancer Control Plan launched by the Colombian government.

Estrogen receptor-negative/progesterone receptor-positive and her-2-negative breast cancer might no longer be classified as hormone receptor-positive breast cancer.

The single progesterone receptor (PR)-positive phenotype (estrogen receptor (ER)-/PR + , sPR positive) is an infrequent and independent biological entity. However, the prognosis of patients with sPR-positive and her-2-negative phenotype is still controversial, and it is not always easy to decide treatment strategies for them. Patients during 2010-2014 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluatecancer-specificsurvival (CSS). The propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to balance differences of characteristics in groups. The Life-Table method was used to calculate 5-year CSS rates and the annual hazard rate of death (HRD). A total of 97,527 patients were included, and only 745 (0.76%) patients were sPR-positive phenotype. The majority of sPR-positive breast cancer were basal-like subtype. Survival analysis showed that the sPR-positive breast cancer had similar prognosis comparing to double hormonal receptor-negative (ER-/PR-, dHoR-negative) breast cancer, and had the highest HRD during the initial 1-2years of follow-up, then maintained the HRD of almost zero during the late years of follow-up. The patients with sPR-positive and her-2-negative breast cancer, similar to dHoR-negative breast cancer, had a worse survival, and could benefit from chemotherapy significantly. However, the escalating endocrine therapy was not recommended for sPR-positive patients. The patients with sPR positive should be excluded from future clinical trials concerning endocrine therapy.

Analysis of implant loss risk factors after simultaneous guided bone regeneration: A retrospective study of 5404 dental implants.

The purpose was to analyze the risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous guided bone regeneration (GBR). Patients who underwent implant placement with simultaneous GBR between January 2011 and December 2018 were screened for this study. The cumulative survival rate (CSR) was calculated using the life table method. Log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were used to identify potential risk factors for implant loss. The association between the investigated variables and implant loss was determined using hazard ratios (HRs) obtained from a multivariate Cox regression analysis. A total of 3973 patients with 5404 implants were included in this study. The CSRs of the implants at 1, 5, and 10 years were 99.6%, 98.9%, and 98.7%, respectively. Male patient (HR=2.94, 95% CI: 1.41-6.14), periodontitis (HR=4.26, 95% CI: 2.05-9.86), tissue-level implants (HR=3.02, 95% CI: 1.30-6.98), narrow implants (HR=2.71, 95% CI: 1.12-6.57), and implant length ≤10 mm (HR=2.91, 95% CI: 1.41-6.02) significantly increased the risk of implant loss (p < 0.05). The risk of implant loss was significantly higher in the maxillary posterior region (HR=2.26, 95% CI: 1.04-4.90) than in the maxillary anterior region (p < 0.05). Compared to Straumann, Nobel (HR=4.07, 95% CI: 1.75-9.44) and other implant systems (HR=14.23, 95% CI: 4.32-46.85) showed a significantly higher risk of implant loss (p < 0.05). Male patient, periodontitis, maxillary posterior region, Nobel implant system, other implant systems, tissue-level implants, narrow implants, and implant length ≤10 mm were considered risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous GBR.

Demography and Fitness of Anastatus japonicus Reared from Antheraea pernyi as a Biological Control Agent of Caligula japonica.

Simple SummaryJapanese giant silkworm (JGS), Caligula japonica Moore, is an emerging defoliator pest of forest and fruit trees in East Asia, causing severe economic losses. In this study, we used eggs of the Chinese oak silkworm (COS), Antheraea pernyi Guérin-Méneville, as an alternative host to rear the dominant JGS egg parasitoid, Anastatus japonicus Ashmead. We showed that A. japonicus could be efficiently reared on COS eggs. Furthermore, A. japonicus reared from COS eggs had a high biological control potential against JGS. This study provides useful information on the demography, parasitism rate, and rearing methods of A. japonicus on COS eggs and the basis for developing a cost-effective biological control program against JGS using A. japonicus.Japanese giant silkworm (JGS), Caligula japonica Moore, is an emerging defoliator pest of forest and fruit trees in East Asia, causing severe economic losses. To develop a cost-effective biological control program against JGS, we used eggs of the Chinese oak silkworm (COS) Antheraea pernyi Guérin-Méneville as an alternative host to rear the most dominant JGS egg parasitoid Anastatus japonicus Ashmead. We compared the demographic parameters and total parasitism (killing) rates of A. japonicus parasitizing JGS and COS eggs using an age-stage, two-sex life table method. The results showed that A. japonicus performed differently on these two different hosts. Anastatus japonicus reared from COS eggs had a higher fecundity (369.7 eggs per female) and a longer oviposition period (35.9 days) on the COS than JGS eggs (180.9 eggs; 24.0 days). Consequently, A. japonicus parasitizing COS eggs had a higher intrinsic rate of increase (r = 0.1466 d−1), finite rate of increase (λ = 1.1579 d−1) and net reproductive rate (R0 = 284.9 offspring) than those parasitizing JGS eggs (r = 0.1419 d−1, λ = 1.1525 d−1, R0 = 150.0 offspring). The total net parasitism rate (the number of parasitized hosts in which the parasitoids successfully developed) of A. japonicus parasitizing COS eggs was 284.9, significantly higher than that of A. japonicus parasitizing JGS eggs (150.0), while the net non-effective parasitism rate (the number of parasitized hosts in which the parasitoids failed to develop) of the former (0.0) was significantly lower than that of the latter (9.6). These results suggest that A. japonicus can be efficiently reared on the alternative (or factitious) COS eggs, and the reared parasitoids have a high biological control potential against the target JGS.

Life Expectancy after Liver Transplantation for NASH.

Introduction: Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis is an increasing reason for liver transplantation in the western world. Knowledge of recipient life expectancy may assist in prudent allocation of a relatively scarce supply of donor livers. Research Questions: We calculated life expectancies for Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients both at time of transplant and one year later, stratified by key risk factors, and examined whether survival has improved in recent years. Design: Data on 6635 NASH patients who underwent liver transplantation in the MELD era (2002-2018) from the United States OPTN database were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and life table methods. Results: Factors related to survival were age, presence of diabetes or hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and whether the patient required dialysis in the week prior to transplant. Other important factors were whether the patient was working, hospitalization prior to transplant, ventilator support, and length of hospital stay (LOS). Survival improved over the study period at roughly 4.5% per calendar year during the first year posttransplant, though no improvement was observed in those who had survived one year. Conclusion: Life expectancy in NASH transplant patients was much reduced from normal, and varied according to age, medical factors, status at transplant, and post transplant course. Over the 17-year study period, patient survival improved markedly during the first year posttransplant, though not thereafter. The results given here may prove helpful in medical decision-making regarding treatment for both liver disease and other medical conditions, as they provide both clinicians and their patients with evidence-based information on prognosis.

Progress in cancer survival across last two decades: A nationwide study of over 1.2 million Polish patients diagnosed with the most common cancers

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to estimate the high incidence cancers survival in Poland between 2000 and 2018, with the following aim to monitor the national polish cancer control program 2020–2030 effectiveness. We calculated survival in cancer of lung, breast, prostate, colon, rectum, ovarian, cervical cancers, and skin melanoma. MethodsData were obtained from the Polish Cancer Registry (PLCR). We estimated age-standardized 5-year net survival (NS) with the life table method and the Pohar-Perme estimator using the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. The corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated with log transformation. ResultsOverall, 1,288,944 high incidence cancer cases were included in the study (622,486 men and 666,458 women). In 2015–2018 age-standardized 5-year NS was 85.2% (95% CI = 84.6% to 85.8%) in prostate cancer, 80.0% (79.5% to 80.4%) breast cancer, 77.3%(76.4% to 78.1%) melanoma, 58.5% (57.5% to 59.5%) cervical cancer, 57.9% (57.3% to 58.5%) colon cancer, 52.1% (51.3% to 52.9%) rectal cancer, 43.3% (42.4% to 44.3%) ovarian cancer, and 17.8% (17.4% to 18.1%) for lung cancer. Between the 2000–2004 and 2015–2018 the highest increase in survival was noted for prostate cancer (14.6% points [pp]; from 70.6% to 85.2%) and the lowest for lung cancer (4.5 pp; from 13.3% to 17.8%). ConclusionCancer survivorship has been consistently improving during the last two decades. Notwithstanding these overall encouraging results, more extraordinary efforts are needed to close the cancer survival gap in Poland.

Applicability of the Vascular Quality Initiative mortality prediction model for infrainguinal revascularization in a tertiary limb preservation center population

ObjectivePatients undergoing revascularization for chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) are at elevated risk for both mortality and limb loss. To facilitate therapeutic decision-making, a mortality prediction model derived from the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) database has stratified patients into low, medium, and high risk, defined by 30-day mortality estimates of ≤3%, 3%-5%, or >5% and 2-year mortality estimates of ≤30%, 30%-50%, or ≥50%, respectively. The purpose of this study was to compare expected mortality risk derived from this model with observed outcomes in a tertiary center. MethodsConsecutive patients treated at a single center between 2016 and 2019 were analyzed. Baseline demographics, approach, and mortality events were reviewed. Observed mortality was obtained using life-table methods and compared using a log-rank test with the expected mortality risk that was calculated using the VQI model. ResultsThis study cohort consisted of 195 revascularization procedures in 169 unique patients stratified into 128 (66%) low-, 50 (26%) medium-, and 17 (8%) high-risk cases based on the VQI model. Ninety percent of revascularizations were performed for tissue loss. Compared with the VQI population, comorbidities were prevalent and included unstable angina or myocardial infarction within 6 months (6% vs 2.4% in VQI; P < .001), congestive heart failure (30% vs 23%; P < .001), and dialysis dependence (14% vs 0.9%; P < .001). Patients were also older (31% vs 21% ≥80 years old; P < .001) and more likely to be frail (45% vs 64% independent; P < .001). High-risk patients were more prevalent in the endovascular group (11% of 132 endovascular interventions vs 3% of 63 bypasses; P = .056). Thirty-day observed mortality exceeded expected VQI prediction model mortality in all groups, although was not statistically significant. The VQI model adequately stratified the studied population into risk groups (P < .001). Low-risk patients with CLTI (65% of the overall cohort) experienced 2-year mortality of 18.9%. However, observed mortality rates for medium- and high-risk VQI strata were similar. After a median follow-up of 28 months, medium-risk patients incurred a significantly higher mortality than predicted (53.5% ± 2.1% vs 36.8% ± 1.1%; P = .016). ConclusionsThe VQI mortality prediction model discriminates mortality risk after limb revascularization in CLTI, accurately identifying a majority subgroup of patients who are suitable for either open or endovascular intervention. However, it may underestimate mortality in a tertiary referral population with high comorbidity burden and was not well calibrated for the medium-risk group. It may be more appropriate to dichotomize patients with CLTI who are candidates for limb salvage into an average-risk and high-risk group.

Improved survival of Burkitt lymphoma/leukemia patients: observations from Poland, 1999-2020.

The aim of this study was to estimate the survival of Polish Burkitt lymphoma/leukemia (BL) patients diagnosed between 1999 and 2017, considering multiple covariates and periods, to reflect changes in BL treatment. We identified all BL patients registered in the Polish National Cancer Registry in 1999-2017. Observed survival (OS) was evaluated deploying the life table method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit to generate hazard ratios (HR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), describing the association between exposures (sex, age at the diagnosis, year of diagnosis, and region of residence) and time-to-event (death). Two-sided log-rank test was applied to assess the significance of exposures. Overall, 937 BL cases were included in the study (654 men and 283 women). Between the periods 1999-2005 and 2015-2017, the 3-year OS changed from 56.0% (95% CI 50.4 to 62.2%) to 73.8% (68.1 to 80.0%; P < 0.001), and the 5-year OS increased from 53.8% (48.2 to 60.0%) to 73.0% (67.1 to 79.3%; P < 0.001). The death HR was significantly higher in adolescents and young adults' (AYA) and adults' groups than in pediatric patients (HR = 3.00, 95% CI 2.05 to 4.39, P < 0.001, for AYA; and HR = 7.30, 5.14 to 10.3, P < 0.001, for adults). During the last two decades, the survival of Polish BL patients has been systematically improving. The death hazard ratio is most significantly associated with the patients' age at diagnosis and year of diagnosis, and not associated with sex or region of residence.