Life Expectancy Of Population Research Articles

Nativity in the healthy migrant effect: Evidence from Australia

Migrant health constitutes an important public health issue; however, variations in the ‘healthy migrant effect’ among migrants of different nativity are not adequately understood. To fill this gap, this study examines the life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) of the Australian-born population and eight major migrant groups in Australia for 2006, 2011 and 2016. The results show that compared with the Australian-born population, the foreign-born population overall had a higher LE and HLE but a lower HLE/LE ratio. Considerable variations in migrant health status according to nativity were also observed. Specifically, migrants from South Africa, Britain and Germany exhibited a similar or higher LE, HLE and HLE/LE ratio, while those from China, India, Italy and Greece had a higher LE but a significantly lower HLE/LE ratio compared with the Australian-born population. Lebanese migrants were the only group who experienced an unchanging LE and a declining HLE from 2006 to 2016. These notable differences in migrants' health outcomes with respect to nativity may be explained by the sociocultural differences between the origin and host countries and the different extents of migration selectivity of different migrant groups. Targeted countermeasures such as improving the quality of life of migrants from culturally diverse backgrounds or with negative migration experiences are suggested.

PACS plus criteria: a retrospective cohort review of 612 consecutive patients treated with bilateral YAG peripheral iridotomies

IntroductionWith an ageing population and better life expectancy, the prevalence of angle closure disease is expected to increase by 20% per decade. In 2022, the Royal College of Ophthalmologists (RCOphth) issued a guideline on managing angle closure disease. Hospital eye service (HES) referral and prophylactic treatment are recommended only for primary angle closure suspect (PACS) with “Plus” features only. We aimed to examine patients previously treated with YAG peripheral iridotomies (YAG PI) for the presence of “PACS Plus” features.MethodsA retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients treated with YAG PI between 2015 and 2019 at a tertiary referral NHS eye centre was reviewed. Cases were examined to identify and classify patients into Primary Angle Closure (PAC), PACS, and Primary Angle Closure Glaucoma (PACG). Patients with PACS were studied for “Plus” features.ResultsSix hundred twelve patients with gonioscopy-confirmed angle closure (defined as a minimum 180 degrees iridotrabecular contact) treated with YAG PI from years 2015 to 2019 were included in the analysis. The mean age of patients presenting with angle closure disease was 68.5 years (SD 11.3). There were 390 (63.7%) patients with PACS, 102 (16.6%) with PAC and 120 (19.7%) with PACG. Of the PACS patients, 159(40.8%) patients had no “Plus” features. 181 (40.2%) patients had 1 “Plus” feature, 37 (9.5%) had 2 “Plus” features and 13 (3.3%) patients had 3 “Plus” features.ConclusionIn our cohort, a considerable proportion (40.8%) of PACS patients treated with YAG PI did not have Plus features and therefore that would not meet the proposed criteria for HES referral and YAG PI. With the proposed guidance, we expect a considerable reduction in HES referrals. Nonetheless, community optometry services should be supported and trained to provide monitoring for patients with PACS not referred to the HES.

First Ecuadorian statement consensus for the evaluation and treatment of osteoporosis.

In Ecuador, it is estimated that around 19% of adults over 65 years of age have osteoporosis. Due to the increasein life expectancy in the world population, the evaluation and management of osteoporosis has become more relevant. Currently, there is no national consensus for the management and prevention of the disease. The Ecuadorian Society of Rheumatology presented the project for the elaboration of the first Ecuadorian consensus for the management and prevention ofosteoporosis. A panel of experts in multiple areas and extensive experience was invited to participate. The consensus wascarried out using the Delphi method. Six working dimensions were created: definition and epidemiology of osteoporosis,fracture risk prediction tools, non-pharmacological treatment, pharmacological treatment, calcium and vitamin D, andglucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis. The first round was held in December 2021, followed by the second round in February 2022 and the thirdround in March 2022. The data was shared with the specialists at the end of each round. After three rounds of work, aconsensus was reached for the management and prevention of osteoporosis. This is the first Ecuadorian consensus for the management and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis.

Modelling the potential long-term survival benefit of evinacumab treatment vs. standard of care in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia.

Despite intensive lipid-lowering therapies (LLTs), most patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (HoFH) do not achieve guideline recommended low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets and are at increased risk of premature cardiovascular death. This analysis aimed to predict the impact of evinacumab and standard-of-care LLTs on life expectancy in an HoFH population using mathematical modelling. Mathematical models were developed using efficacy data for evinacumab from the phase 3 ELIPSE HoFH trial plus efficacy data for standard-of-care LLTs from peer-reviewed publications. Treatment strategies evaluated included (i) untreated, (ii) high-intensity statin (HIS) only, (iii) HIS plus ezetimibe, (iv) HIS plus ezetimibe plus proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor (PCSK9i), and (v) HIS plus ezetimibe plus PCSK9i plus evinacumab. Markov analyses were used to assess differences in survival probability for different LLT strategies. The median survival for untreated HoFH patients was only 33-43 years, depending on different assumptions on baseline untreated LDL-C levels. In the most robust model, we estimated that HIS increased median survival by 9 years and ezetimibe further increased median survival by an additional 9 years. When PCSK9i was added on top of HIS plus ezetimibe, median survival was further improved by 14 years. Finally, the addition of evinacumab to standard-of-care LLTs was estimated to increase median survival by ∼12 years. In this mathematical modelling analysis, evinacumab treatment could potentially increase long-term survival vs. standard-of-care LLTs for patients with HoFH.

The value of vaccines from the perspective of population medicine

Vaccination is one of the most effective, broad-reach, and cost-effective public health initiatives to fight against infectious diseases. From the perspective of population medicine, this article systematically elaborates on the value of vaccines in preventing infections, reducing disease incidence, decreasing disability and severe cases, lowering mortality rates, improving population health and life expectancy, reducing antibiotic use and resistance, as well as promoting fairness in public health services. Based on the current situation, the following recommendations are proposed: first, strengthen scientific research to provide a solid foundation for related policy-making; second, increase the coverage rate of non-national immunization program vaccines; third, promote the inclusion of more appropriate vaccines in the national immunization program; fourth, strengthen the research and development of new vaccines; and fifth, increase talent training in the field of vaccinology.

Научное обоснование предложений по совершенствованию медицинской помощи жителям села

P u r p o s e o f t h e s t u d y : based on the analysis of the medical and demographic situation and the staffing of the rural population, develop proposals for improving medical care for the villagers. M a t e r i a l s a n d m e t h o d s : statistical, analytical, direct observation. The article used the forms of state statistical observation of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation. The results of the actual research. Materials and methods: statistical, analytical, direct observation, the forms of state statistical observation of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation were used. R e s u l t s . The rural population in the Russian Federation (2021) is 36,9 million people (25,2% of the country’s population). The proportion of the rural population of working age was 53,8%, which is lower than in Russia as a whole – 56%. A 21-year analysis showed that the birth rate of the rural population increased until 2012, while mortality rates decreased, in 2013 the mortality and birth rates became equal and amounted to 14,5‰ each, in 2020 the death rate increased to 15,4‰ due to the COVID‑19 pandemic. The average (expected) life expectancy of the rural population (70,7 years) is lower than that of the urban population (71,8 years); the indicator for rural men is extremely low (66 years). The overall incidence of the rural population is 1,4 times lower than that of the urban population, 117993,2 and 166901,5‰oo respectively. Primary morbidity is also 1,5 times lower (55082,4 and 83002,2‰oo, respectively). The difference in primary morbidity rates of the rural population in the federal districts (2020) was 1,3 times, in the constituent entities – 8,3 times. The incidence of COVID‑19 in the rural adult population (2020) was 1986,0‰oo, which is 2 times lower than in the Russian Federation as a whole (3913.9‰oo). There was a significant difference in these indicators (by 59 times) in the subjects of the Russian Federation, which can be associated with a lower density of the rural population, low availability of medical care in the countryside, as well as the ambiguity of COVID‑19 coding. For 6 years (2016–2021), the provision of doctors in medical organizations in rural areas in the Russian Federation decreased from 14,8 to 13,6‰o, and of nurses – from 54,6 to 49,3‰o. The number of nursing staff individuals working for feldsher-obstetric station decreased by 12,5%, paramedics – by 9,4%. Given the special importance of paramedical assistance in the countryside, the reduction in the number of paramedics should be considered a negative. C o n c l u s i o n . The unfavorable medical and demographic situation in the countryside requires the development of organizational and managerial decisions aimed at increasing the availability of medical care to the villagers. C o n c l u s i o n s . Proposals have been developed to improve the provision of medical care to the population of rural areas.

Fluid-structure interaction study for biomechanics and risk factors in Stanford type A aortic dissection.

Aortic dissection is a life-threatening condition with a rising prevalence in the elderly population, possibly as a consequence of the increasing population life expectancy. Untreated aortic dissection can lead to myocardial infarction, aortic branch malperfusion or occlusion, rupture, aneurysm formation and death. This study aims to assess the potential of a biomechanical model in predicting the risks of a non-dilated thoracic aorta with Stanford type A dissection. To achieve this, a fully coupled fluid-structure interaction model was developed under realistic blood flow conditions. This model of the aorta was developed by considering three-dimensional artery geometry, multiple artery layers, hyperelastic artery wall, in vivo-based physiological time-varying blood velocity profiles, and non-Newtonian blood behaviours. The results demonstrate that in a thoracic aorta with Stanford type A dissection, the wall shear stress (WSS) is significantly low in the ascending aorta and false lumen, leading to potential aortic dilation and thrombus formation. The results also reveal that the WSS is highly related to blood flow patterns. The aortic arch region near the brachiocephalic and left common carotid artery is prone to rupture, showing a good agreement with the clinical reports. The results have been translated into their potential clinical relevance by revealing the role of the stress state, WSS and flow characteristics as the main parameters affecting lesion progression, including rupture and aneurysm. The developed model can be tailored for patient-specific studies and utilised as a predictive tool to estimate aneurysm growth and initiation of wall rupture inside the human thoracic aorta.

Trends of healthy and unhealthy working life expectancy in Germany between 2001 and 2020 at ages 50 and 60: a question of educational level?

BackgroundExtending the number of active working years is an important goal both for maintaining individual quality of life and safeguarding social security systems. Against this background, we examined the development...

Efficacy and safety of unilateral biportal endoscopy compared with microscopic decompression in the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis: A systematic review and updated meta‑analysis.

The incidence of lumbar spinal stenosis is increasing annually, and with an ever-aging population and longer life expectancies, this trend will further continue. It is hoped that a more effective treatment can be found so that the patients can be relieved of their pain. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of unilateral biportal endoscopic surgery (UBE) and microscopic decompression surgery (MD) for the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis. A literature search of related studies published until April 2022 was performed using PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, Google Scholar, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and other databases. After filtering of references, 12 eligible studies were identified that compared UBE with MD as a treatment for lumbar spinal stenosis. Data were extracted and analysed using R. A total of 12 articles (four randomized controlled and eight cohort studies) were included, with a total of 1,067 patients: 250 men and 249 women in the UBE group and 290 men and 278 women in the MD group. The meta-analysis showed that the mean intraoperative blood loss in the UBE group [standardized mean difference (SMD)=-2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) (-3.97, -0.23), P=0.03] was lower than that in the MD group. The postoperative Visual analogue scale (VAS) score for back pain [SMD=-0.52, 95% CI (-0.76, -0.27), P<0.01], leg pain [SMD=-0.30, 95% CI (-0.51, -0.08), P<0.01], postoperative Oswestry disability index [(ODI); SMD=-0.25, 95% CI (-0.48, -0.03), P=0.03], and postoperative C-reactive protein [(CRP); odds ratio (OR)=-0.92, 95% CI (-1.80, 0.03), P=0.04] were lower than those in the MD group. Complications (OR=0.60, 95% CI (0.37, 0.98), P=0.04) and hospital stay (SMD=-1.84, 95% CI (-2.85, 0.83), P <0.01] were also lesser in the UBE group than in the MD group. UBE was preferable to that in the MD group according to the modified MacNab score [OR=2.28, 95% CI (1.28, 4.06), P<0.01]. No significant differences were observed in the operation times between the groups. UBE surgery was found to be a better option for the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis than MD surgery.

The impact of self-employment on mental health of the younger elderly in China

BackgroundWith the prolongation of the life expectancy of the Chinese population and the intensification of the aging process of the population, the mental health problems of the elderly have become increasingly prominent. This study aims to explore whether self-employment can promote and how to promote the mental health of the elderly.MethodBased on the 2018 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) data, this paper uses OLS model and KHB method to verify the impact of self-employment on the mental health of the younger elderly and its mechanism.ResultsThe results indicate that self-employment can significantly reduce the depression tendency of the younger elderly and promote their mental health. Heterogeneity analysis shows that self-employment has a more significant positive impact on the mental health of the younger elderly who are self-rated healthy, free of chronic diseases and low-level medical service utilization. The mechanism shows that self-employment can indirectly improve the mental health of the younger elderly through income growth effect and self-worth realization effect, in which the self-worth realization effect is greater than the economic effect. It illustrates that with the development of China’s economy, the elderly are pursuing more intrinsic values brought by self-employment than economic benefits.ConclusionIn view of the above research results, it is suggested to encourage the elderly to actively participate in social activities, provide policy support for the younger elderly to engage in self-employment, increase government support as well as health guarantee level, and improve the subjective initiative of the elderly to participate in self-employment, so that the society can truly realize the healthy aging of “being useful and productive for the elderly”.

Optimizing Arteriovenous Fistula Care in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Complex Task.

Optimizing Arteriovenous Fistula Care in Kidney Transplant Recipients: A Complex Task.

Breast cancer characteristics and pathological prognostic determinants in indigenous Australians: Retrospective cohort study in the Northern Territory.

There is a disparity in health outcomes between indigenous and nonindigenous Australians, with higher chronic disease burden and shorter life expectancy in this minority population. Although rates of breast cancer among indigenous women are lower than nonindigenous women, they face a higher breast cancer-associated mortality, which may not entirely be explained by socio-economic disadvantage. This retrospective cohort study investigated previously described pathologic prognostic factors in indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory. Data analyzed confirmed that indigenous women were more likely to have poorer prognostic disease features, including ER/PR negative and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 amplified tumors, larger tumors, and higher stage disease. These pathologic features portend to a poor prognosis, raising the possibility these factors contribute to the disparity in health outcomes between indigenous and nonindigenous women with breast cancer, in addition to known socio-economic factors.

Life Expectancy using Data Analytics

Abstract: The population's life expectancy is a problem for the government or pertinent agency of a particular nation. A statistical measurement of the anticipated average lifespan of an organism is life expectancy. Data for the appropriate nation, including all required fields, must be gathered in order for the department to handle life expectancy in an efficient manner. This study analyses and forecasts trends in life expectancy using data analytics and machine learning approaches. Regression models are used in the study to find the major determinants of life expectancy as well as descriptive statistics to understand how long people live across various population groupings. The WHO data repository was used to gather the information, which was then retrieved from the Kaggle website, a reputable data science resource. The dataset contains variables including vaccination, mortality, economy, social factors, and other health-related variables. It covers the years 2000 to 2015 for 193 nations. These factors are taken into account when this study uses data analytics and machine learning to implement life expectancy. After examining numerous regression methods, the Random Forest Regressor was chosen since it generated the greatest accuracy among the models studied.

Нейронные сети в исследовании человеческого капитала как источника экономической безопасности Российской Федерации

According to the national goal of preserving the health and well-being of the population of the Russian Federation, neural network modeling of the dynamics of the current state of organizational and economic efficiency of acyclic sports certifying human capital, which is one of the significant foundations of innovative development and guarantees of national, including economic, security of the state, was carried out. The data of the Ministry of Sports of the Russian Federation for the period 2014—2020 are considered and investigated. on the development of acyclic sports in order to improve the efficiency of organizational and economic activities in the sports field, increase the life expectancy of the Russian population, increase human capital and support the socio-economic growth of the Russian Federation. Cluster analysis was performed using a new promising methodological approach — neural networks, which make up one of the sections of artificial intelligence. Data clustering was carried out on the basis of neural networks — self-organizing Kohonen maps for 6 indicators certifying the evolution of acyclic sports, using information technology. The features of the development of acyclic sports as one of the components of the process of human capital formation, which were also influenced by the great challenges of the modern stage of civilization development, are determined. The different level of organizational and economic activity in the sphere of sports reserve training allowed us to obtain a ranking of acyclic sports in four clusters. The composition and characteristics of each cluster are presented. The conducted research using neural network technologies made it possible to assess the development of the sport under study in the Russian Federation. The results of the study contain practical significance in the implementation of a comparative analysis of the development of acyclic sports. They can be taken into account in the strategic planning of the development of the sports sphere in the context of an increase in the quality of human capital related to the dominant internal factors of the socio-economic potential of the Russian Federation.

HIV-Infected Patients as a Model of Aging.

We appraised the relationship between the biological and the chronological age and estimated the rate of biological aging in HIV-infected patients. Two independent biomarkers, the relative telomere length and iron metabolism parameters, were analyzed in younger (<35) and older (>50) HIV-infected and uninfected patients (control group). In our control group, telomeres of younger patients were significantly longer than telomeres of older ones. However, in HIV-infected participants, the difference in the length of telomeres was lost. By combining the length of telomeres with serum iron, ferritin, and transferrin iron-binding capacity, a new formula for determination of the aging process was developed. The life expectancy of the healthy population was related to their biological age, and HIV-infected patients were biologically older. The effect of antiretroviral HIV drug therapies varied with respect to the biological aging process. IMPORTANCE This article is focused on the dynamics of human aging. Moreover, its interdisciplinary approach is applicable to various systems that are aging.

Survival after PCI or CABG for left main stem coronary stenosis. A single institution registry from the NOBLE study period

Objective. To analyze 10 years mortality in an all-comers registry of patients with left main coronary artery stenoses treated with either PCI or CABG. Design. Patients with left main coronary stenoses treated with either PCI or CABG in the period of the NOBLE trial (2010–2015) were all included in an institutional database and registry (University Hospital North Norway). Fifty-six of totally 429 patients were included in the randomized, multicenter and international NOBLE trail; 426 eligible patients from the trial and registry were analyzed for mortality on 20 October 2020. The longest observation time on this date was 3611 days (9.9 years); 205 patients were treated with PCI and 221 with CABG. The patients treated with PCI were 74 ± 10 years vs 68 ± 10 years (CABG). Also, on average the PCI patients had more comorbidities (lower ejection fraction, more peripheral artery disease, more often acute presentation). Results. Survival at the last observation date was 80% for CABG patients vs 48% for PCI. A Cox proportional hazards analysis found PCI to be the strongest independent predictor for mortality (HR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7–3.7). Also, COPD, chronic kidney disease, age, peripheral vascular disease, cerebrovascular incidents and acute presentation were factor predicting increased 10 years mortality. Conclusion. These data indicate that life expectancy in the overall patient population is shorter for patient treated for left main disease with PCI than with CABG.

Changes in the Level of Premature Mortality in the Polish Population Due to Selected Groups of Cardiovascular Diseases before and during the Pandemic of COVID-19.

In the years 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted Poland's health care system and caused a high number of excess deaths. After nearly 30 years of continuous dynamic increase in the life expectancy of the Polish population and a decrease in premature mortality that led to a reduction in the health gap between Poland and Western European countries, regrettably, a decline in life expectancy was recorded. For males, the decline amounted to 2.3 years and, for females, to 2.1 years. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the level of premature mortality due to selected cardiovascular diseases in Poland before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Time trends of deaths of patients under the age of 65 due to ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and aortic aneurysm were analyzed by gender and age groups. The joinpoint model was used in determining time trends. Premature mortality due to all of the cardiovascular diseases analyzed had been declining steadily by about 5% per year since 2008. However, at the end of the second decade of the 21st century, a significant change in the dynamics of the trend was observed, particularly with regard to deaths from ischemic heart disease, which since 2018 caused premature mortality increases of 10% per year in the female population. In the male population, an increase of nearly 20% per year has been observed since 2019. The changes also affected premature mortality due to cerebrovascular disease. After nearly three decades of significant decline in premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Poland, there was a reversal in the trend, in particular as regards ischemic heart disease. The unfavorable changes intensified in the subsequent two years. The simultaneous increase in the number of cardiovascular incidents ending in death and the decline in access to prompt diagnosis and effective treatment may explain the unfavorable changes in the deaths caused by cardiovascular disease and the increase in premature mortality due to cardiovascular disease.

Black Representation in the Primary Care Physician Workforce and Its Association With Population Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the US

Studies have suggested that greater primary care physician (PCP) availability is associated with better population health and that a diverse health workforce can improve care experience measures. However, it is unclear whether greater Black representation within the PCP workforce is associated with improved health outcomes among Black individuals. To assess county-level Black PCP workforce representation and its association with mortality-related outcomes in the US. This cohort study evaluated the association of Black PCP workforce representation with survival outcomes at 3 time points (from January 1 to December 31 each in 2009, 2014, and 2019) for US counties. County-level representation was defined as the ratio of the proportion of PCPs who identifed as Black divided by the proportion of the population who identified as Black. Analyses focused on between- and within-county influences of Black PCP representation and treated Black PCP representation as a time-varying covariate. Analysis of between-county influences examined whether, on average, counties with increased Black representation exhibited improved survival outcomes. Analysis of within-county influences assessed whether counties with higher-than-usual Black PCP representation exhibited enhanced survival outcomes during a given year of heightened workforce diversity. Data analyses were performed on June 23, 2022. Using mixed-effects growth models, the impact of Black PCP representation on life expectancy and all-cause mortality for Black individuals and on mortality rate disparities between Black and White individuals was assessed. A combined sample of 1618 US counties was identified based on whether at least 1 Black PCP operated within a county during 1 or more time points (2009, 2014, and 2019). Black PCPs operated in 1198 counties in 2009, 1260 counties in 2014, and 1308 counties in 2019-less than half of all 3142 Census-defined US counties as of 2014. Between-county influence results indicated that greater Black workforce representation was associated with higher life expectancy and was inversely associated with all-cause Black mortality and mortality rate disparities between Black and White individuals. In adjusted mixed-effects growth models, a 10% increase in Black PCP representation was associated with a higher life expectancy of 30.61 days (95% CI, 19.13-42.44 days). The findings of this cohort study suggest that greater Black PCP workforce representation is associated with better population health measures for Black individuals, although there was a dearth of US counties with at least 1 Black PCP during each study time point. Investments to build a more representative PCP workforce nationally may be important for improving population health.

Life Expectancy and Life Years Lost After HIV or AIDS Diagnosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

The AIDS pandemic on average took a life every minute in 2021 despite effective HIV treatment and tools to prevent, detect, and treat opportunistic infections. The objective of this study was to estimate the average life expectancy and life years lost (LYL) in people diagnosed with HIV or AIDS in Puerto Rico from 2000-2020. The epidemiological design was a retrospective cohort study of 24,143 people diagnosed with HIV or AIDS and received services under the Eligible Metropolitan Area (EMA) of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The population with a diagnosis of HIV or AIDS was described using socioeconomic characteristics with frequencies and proportions by category. We estimated the LYL by matching the expected residual lifetime for someone diagnosed with the disease with the life expectancy of the general population at that specific age as the null model. Average years of life lost (LYL) is a measure that reflects expected earlier death as a result of a condition. The number of LYL is dependent on the year of onset of the condition. In general, the earlier the onset of HIV or AIDS results in a larger impact of LYL. For individuals diagnosed at the age of 30 with AIDS the LYL is approximately 35.5 years, whereas for an individual where the onset is at age 70 years, being diagnosed with HIV or AIDS results in approximately 2.7 years lost. In our study, we found a greater number of LYL in patients diagnosed with AIDS in this population compared to those diagnosed with HIV. This study confirms the dramatic impact of HIV and AIDS on the lifespan of individuals and how the age of onset of the conditions impacts LYL.

COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia: Statistical Assessment of Direct and Indirect Demographic Losses

Introduction. The whole world is concerned about the severe socio-economic consequences of the pandemic, the most threatening of which should be considered the death of a large number of people, the general economic downturn, inflation reducing living standards, the threat of increasing hunger, the aggravation of humanitarian problems in poorly developed countries due to a reduction in foreign aid, etc. But if the negative economic consequences are compensated over time (many countries of the world, and Russia is one of the first on this list, have already returned to the pre-pandemic level in 2021), then the human losses suffered by many countries are irreplaceable. Doctors talk about the need to combat post-COVID syndrome, which can also worsen the health and quality of life of citizens. As demographic history shows, such events affect the development of the population for quite a long time. States have struggled with the new dangerous infection in different ways. The set of measures to counter COVID-19 in some countries was based on a policy of “zero tolerance”, others limited themselves to the introduction of only some temporary and not very strict prohibitions. The results of the measures taken also differ dramatically: some countries have been pushed back many years in terms of life expectancy, while in others this indicator has increased. The purpose of this article is to study the demographic consequences of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic for Russia, which will assess the effectiveness of the anti-epidemic measures taken and better prepare for the occurrence of a similar situation in the future. Materials and Methods. The study was based on data from Rosstat, materials from reputable international organizations, publications of scientists engaged in the study of population problems. The analysis of the demographic situation was carried out on the basis of the systematic approach and specific methods of demographic analysis, content analysis was used to summarize the materials of published scientific research, a tabular method was used to visualize the results. Results. The study has revealed that in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the life expectancy of the urban population decreased to a greater extent than that of the rural population. The increase in mortality did not affect children, adolescents and young people under 25 years of age. Mortality among women in the Russian Federation has increased to a greater extent than among men, and this is typical for most age groups. Women aged 65‒69 were the most vulnerable to the virus – the increase in mortality in this age group was the largest. Discussion and Conclusion. In addition to direct demographic losses from COVID-19 (144.7 thousand people in 2020), an increase in mortality from other causes – respiratory diseases, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, as well as digestive diseases and accidental alcohol poisoning, which violated the long-term trend, has been recorded. Indirect demographic losses from COVID-19 in 2020, calculated by estimating the increase in mortality from these causes, amounted to 143.7 thousand people. Migration growth in the Russian Federation in the first year of the pandemic decreased by 2 times, but remained at the level of 2018. Due to the strict restrictions imposed on the movement of the population, the process of urbanization in the country has slowed down, the migration decline of the rural population has decreased. The results of the study can be useful for scientists dealing with demographic development, as well as used to assess the effectiveness of measures taken to combat the spread of coronavirus infection in 2020. Research in this direction should be continued after the publication of data for 2021 and the results of the All-Russian Population Census.