Life Cycle Fertility Research Articles

Unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II and their effect on fertility: A life cycle perspective.

This paper analyzes the effects of permanently unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. Using Census records linked with individual biography data, our analysis confirms the commonly found short-term pattern of decreased fertility rates due to a stark imbalance of the sex ratio. Yet, the long-term effects of such an imbalance crucially depend on when in the life cycle fertility is evaluated. We find that female cohorts with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages and a larger fraction remains childless. While childlessness remains higher throughout their life cycle, mothers from affected cohorts catch up and even overcompensate at later ages with respect to the number of children. Our preferred reading of this result is that with low sex ratios women select themselves into late motherhood according to their fertility preferences. This interpretation is consistent with the finding that women from affected cohorts expand their childbearing period and accept lower quality matches in the marriage market. Our findings have important implications for understanding the long-term consequences of large population shocks.

Cutting fertility? Effects of cesarean deliveries on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply

Despite the growing incidence of cesarean deliveries (CDs), procedure costs and benefits continue to be controversially discussed. In this study, we identify the effects of CDs on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply by exploiting the fact that obstetricians are less likely to undertake CDs on weekends and public holidays and have a greater incentive to perform them on Fridays and days preceding public holidays. To do so, we adopt high-quality administrative data from Austria. Women giving birth on different days of the week are pre-treatment observationally identical. Our instrumental variable estimates show that a non-planned CD at parity 0 decreases lifecycle fertility by almost 13.6%. This reduction in fertility translates into a temporary increase in maternal employment.

Lifecycle Fertility and the Impact of Family Planning Programs: Evidence from Southern Africa

The impact of family planning programs on fertility in developing countries is contested, with empirical evidence finding negative effects on completed fertility but no consistent effect on short-run fertility. Using a lifecycle model of fertility control choice, we theoretically and empirically show that differential responses of short-run and completed fertility are consistent with a single behavioral response to improved contraceptive access — a shifting of births earlier in the lifecycle due to improved control over fertility outcomes. Women without access to modern contraceptives use traditional methods to delay wanted births because of a precautionary motive to avoid exceeding their target fertility; improved contraceptive access relaxes this precautionary motive and can increase short-run, but not completed, fertility. Using a difference-in-difference design that exploits the legalization of injectables in Zambia, we show that an expansion of the type and availability of modern contraceptives increases use of injectables and modern contraceptives by 350% and 50%, respectively; decreases use of traditional fertility control methods such as unsafe abortions, coital infrequency, and postpartum behaviors; and increases short-run fertility by 10%. Consistent with the predictions of our model, completed fertility does not increase and short-run fertility increases are confined to rural women 20–45. Our results confirm that improved control over unwanted pregnancies can produce the divergent fertility responses found in the literature and suggest that access to modern contraceptives is welfare-improving for women, despite having counterintuitive implications for fertility.

How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility

Abstract This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average lifetime fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility, although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality.

ERRATUM

In the May issue of International Economic Review (IERE), DOI: 10.1111/iere.2015.56.issue-2, the Introduction article was inadvertently not published in the issue. It should have been included as the first article of the issue. Here is the actual Introduction article. In 1984, Ken Wolpin published a paper in the Journal of Political Economy titled “An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Child Fertility and Mortality.” The abstract states “the paper develops a finite-horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life-cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain. The model yields implications for the number, timing, and spacing of children. A tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint-quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem, and the method is applied to Malaysian household data. Estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure.” The simple idea that economic modeling, estimation, and empirical analysis should be internally consistent was not widely accepted in the 1980s. Earlier research, by Daniel McFadden, James Heckman and others, had demonstrated the power of estimating behavioral models. However, few researchers thought that it was feasible to estimate complicated dynamic stochastic models. Even fewer researchers believed that these types of models would be rich enough to avoid rejection by conventional specification tests. Almost no one expected that these models could be used to answer real-world policy questions. One of Ken's greatest research accomplishments was proving all of the skeptics wrong. Since the publication of that paper, much has changed in economics. What was once considered to be the domain of a few mavericks has become the most compelling methodological approach in empirical microeconomics. This special edition in honor of Ken Wolpin focuses on recent advances in structural estimation of behavioral models in microeconomics. Some of the articles in this volume are revised versions of papers presented at a conference that was organized by Petra Todd and Christopher Ferrall, held at the University of Pennsylvania, on September 21–22, 2012. Other articles were submitted by Ken's former and current colleagues, coauthors, and students. There are 12 papers included in this special volume of the International Economic Review. We ranked the papers by the length of time Ken has known the authors. The papers reflect the broad impact that Ken had on empirical microeconomics and econometrics. Some papers focus on methodological issues in the estimation of dynamic models. Others explore new models or new computational algorithms for existing models. Most importantly, most papers included in this special edition focus on serious empirical applications and study important policy issues covering a diverse set of topics such as the design of social security systems, the impact of permanent and transitory tax changes on labor supply, the impact of divorce on the cognitive achievement of children, and the effects of vocational training on the cognitively impaired. Those of us whose research has been significantly shaped by Ken's own research agree that the best way to honor Ken is continue on his path and try to meet the high standards of research that he sets for himself. The purpose of this volume is to report some progress along the way. We apologize for this error.

Cutting Fertility? The Effect of Cesarean Deliveries on Subsequent Fertility and Maternal Labor Supply

The incidence of Cesarean deliveries (CDs) has been on the rise. The procedure's cost and benefits are discussed controversially; in particular, since non-medically indicated cases seem widespread. We study the effect of CDs on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply. Identification is achieved by exploiting variation in the supply-side's incentives to induce non-medically indicated CDs across weekdays. On weekends and public holidays obstetricians' are less likely to induce CDs (due tighter capacity constraints in hospital). On Fridays and other days preceding a holiday, they face an increased incentive to induce CDs (due to their demand for leisure on non-working days).We use high-quality administrative data from Austria. Women giving birth on different weekdays are pre-treatment observationally identical. Our instrumental variable estimates show that a non-planned CD at parity one decreases life cycle fertility by almost 17 percent. This reduction in fertility translates into a temporary increase in maternal employment.

The Effects of Women′s Labour Force Participation and Work-Family Reconciliation Support on Fertility

This study analyzes the effects of women`s labour force participation and work-family reconciliation support on life-cycle fertility in Korea. The analysis is based on the longitudinal data from Korean Labour and Income Panel Study (KLIPS), which include the available information on life-cycle fertility and employment history. Employing a dynamic model of fertility, we estimated the life-cycle fertility of all the 15-49 years old women considered in this study by using a duration model. The major results of this study were as follows: First, women`s labour force participation had a negative effect on the first birth, second birth, and all births (transition to births starting at different parities). Women`s employment tended to lengthen the interval between births. Second, the availability of maternal leave had a positive effect on the first birth and all births for working women. Providing maternal leave to working women decreased the opportunity cost of childbearing and in turn, reduced the interbirth interval of women. However, the availability of parental leave had no significant effect on the births of working women. Third, the financial support for childcare had a positive effect on the first birth and all births. The economic support for childcare led to the reduction in the interbirth interval of women by increasing the probability of births. The use of a childcare center for the first child, which substitutes for the time that women needed to take care of their children, classified as time-intensive consumption goods, did not have any effect on the second birth. Fourth, the part-time employment of women had a positive effect on the second birth. A flexible working time schedule tended to decrease the interval between the first and the second births.

Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy

Parenthood postponement is a key demographic trend of the last three decades. In order to rationalize that stylized fact, we extend the canonical model by Barro and Becker (Econometrica 57:481–501, 1989) to include two—instead of one—reproduction periods. We examine how the cost structure of early and late children in terms of time and goods affects the optimal fertility timing. Then, we identify conditions that guarantee the existence and uniqueness of a stationary equilibrium with a stationary cohort size. Finally, we examine how the model can rationalize the observed postponement of births, and we highlight two plausible causes: (1) a general rise in the cost of children in terms of goods and (2) a decline in the degree of family altruism.

The Supply of Birth Control Methods, Education, and Fertility: Evidence from Romania

This paper investigates the effect of the supply of birth control methods on fertility behavior by examining Romania's 23-year period of pronatalist policies. Following the lifting of the restrictions in 1989 the immediate decrease in fertility was 30 percent. Women who spent most of their reproductive years under the restrictive regime experienced increases in life-cycle fertility of about 0.5 children. Less-educated women had bigger increases infertility after policy implementation and larger fertility decreases following the lifting of restrictions. These findings suggest that access to abortion and birth control are significant determinants of fertility levels, particularly for less-educated women.

The Supply of Birth Control Methods, Education, and Fertility

Abstract:This paper investigates the effect of the supply of birth control methods on fertility behavior by examining Romania's 23-year period of pronatalist policies. Following the lifting of the restrictions in 1989 the immediate decrease in fertility was 30 percent. Women who spent most of their reproductive years under the restrictive regime experienced increases in life-cycle fertility of about 0.5 children. Less-educated women had bigger increases infertility after policy implementation and larger fertility decreases following the lifting of restrictions. These findings suggest that access to abortion and birth control are significant determinants of fertility levels, particularly for less-educated women.

Abortion Legalization and Life-Cycle Fertility

Elizabeth Oltmans Ananat, Jonathan Gruber and Phillip Levine

Household Expenditures and Wealth among Young Guatemalan Adults

In this article, we describe expenditure and wealth patterns, indicators of long-run economic well-being, for a sample of young Guatemalan adults interviewed for the Human Capital Study 2002-04, finding a number of differences across subgroups of the sample. The main difference across birth-year cohorts is that younger subjects tend to live in smaller households, with lower total annual household expenditures (and fewer durable goods), though per capita measures are similar across cohorts. This appears to be related to life-cycle fertility patterns. There is a clear positive association between parental socioeconomic status (SES) and current levels of expenditure and durable goods ownership. This association does not hold for all households, however, as there is both upward and downward "mobility" in the sample. Those living in the capital have the highest overall wealth levels, consistent with typical rural-urban patterns. Where there are expenditure differences across groups, they tend to be driven by differences in nonfood rather than food expenditures. Lastly, the study sample is relatively well off compared with their compatriots, with a poverty rate of 35% and an extreme poverty rate of only 3%, against national averages of 56% and 15%, respectively.

A Quantitative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751–1990

This paper analyzes the relationship between age-specific fertility, mortality, and real wages in Sweden during the demographic transition. We fit a model of life-cycle fertility to two and a half centuries of Swedish time-series data. The model fits the data well, accurately portraying the total fertility decline from more than four children per female before the mid-nineteenth century to about two children today. About 80% of this decline was in fertility at female ages over 30. The fitted model implies that reduction in child mortality is the most important factor explaining the fertility decline.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: I21, J11, N30.

Fertility Transition in Zimbabwe: Determinants of Contraceptive Use and Method Choice

This study estimates the determinants of current contraceptive method choice that account for demand and supply factors in Zimbabwe. Data were obtained from the 1988-89 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey and a World Bank survey of community services available. Analysis is based on a continuous time model of life cycle fertility that was developed by Newman (1988). The empirical model is different from Montgomerys (1988) specifications in that fertility intentions are treated as an observed endogenous variable that is conditioned by births and deaths. None of the quality of care measures the distance variable and the presence of public transportation variable significantly predicted contraceptive method choice. Significant factors affecting contraceptive method choice (CMC) included age and urban residence wifes education after grade 6 and residence in cities on communal land or on commercial farms. In a model controlling for background variables only access to a ZNFPC clinic was associated with significantly lower fertility. Child mortality was significantly affected by womens education beyond 6 years access to sanitation and urban residence. Mens schooling had weaker effects. The interaction of education beyond 7 years for women aged 15-25 years had a negative effect on deaths. Intentions to space and to stop childbearing were affected the strongest by the number of living children. Contraceptive use was largely determined by fertility intentions as a demand variable. After controlling for intentions modern contraceptive use was more likely among women aged under 35 years women with greater schooling women with more family assets and urban women. The presence of community-based distribution (CBD) significantly increased modern use. Family planning messages also determined use. Policy should focus on education but not at the expense of IEC and CBD.

The Relationship Between Wages and Income and the Timing and Spacing of Births: Evidence from Swedish Longitudinal Data

"This paper estimates semiparametric reduced-form neoclassical models of life-cycle fertility in Sweden.... The estimated model integrates aspects of life cycle fertility that have previously been studied in isolation of each other: completed fertility, childlessness, interbirth intervals, and the time series of annual birth rates. The main objective of this paper is to determine which aspects of life cycle fertility, if any, are sensitive to male income and female wages."

Structural change in life cycle fertility during the fertility transition: France before and after the Revolution of 1789.

This paper explores the hypothesis that the fertility transition in France entailed a structural change in behaviour from natural to controlled fertility. We define the hypothesis in terms of an empirically estimable model of lifetime fertility. The model produces separate estimates of the three main proximate determinants: the hazard rate of conception for ovulating women, the timing of ovulation resumption after a birth, and permanent sterility. Fertility control is defined as responsiveness of the conception hazard to number of surviving children. We demonstrate key features of the model by simulated family histories. The historical application provides support for the transition hypothesis in the south of France, and mixed results for the north. We also find strong evidence of persistent couple-specific heterogeneity even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in fecundability. We suggest how future research might improve the model.

Forecasting Aggregate Period-Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility

Abstract This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that assign no role to wages. This article demonstrates that, when neoclassical models of fertility are estimated on microdata using methods that incorporate key demographic restrictions and when they are properly aggregated, they have considerable forecasting power.

An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply

This paper examines US household fertility and female labor supply over the life cycle using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The authors investigate how maternal time inputs and market expenditures on offspring as well as the benefits they yield their parents vary with ages of offspring and influence female labor supply and contraceptive behavior. The econometric framework combines a female labor supply model and a contraceptive choice index function. It also accounts for the fact that conceptions are not perfectly controllable events. Using longitudinal data on married couples the authors estimate these equations and test alternative specifications of the technologies governing child care. The findings suggest that while parents cannot perfectly control conceptions variations in child care costs do affect life cycle spacing of births. Furthermore the results demonstrate the gains of modeling the linkages between female labor supply and fertility behavior at the household level. (authors modified)

An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality

This paper develops a finite-horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life-cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain. The model yields implications for the number, timing, and spacing of children. A tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint-quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem, and the method is applied to Malaysian household data. Estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure.