Level Of Social Distance Research Articles

Social Distance of University Students towards Individuals with Special Needs

ABSTRACT People acquire professional knowledge and skills throughout university education during which their social relations network, orientation and social perceptions are also shaped. Due to the importance of university education period, the purpose of this study was to determine the social distance levels of the university students towards individuals with special needs. The study group consisted of a total of 1293 students continuing their university education in a province located in southeastern Turkey. The Bogardus Social Distance Scale was used as the data collection tool in this descriptive study. The results revealed that the participants indicated the greatest social distance towards individuals with intellectual disabilities and autism while the lowest distance was observed towards gifted individuals. It was found that most of the university students do not prefer to ‘get married’, ‘become a close kin member by marriage’ and ‘become a fellow employee (co-worker)’ with individuals with special needs. The results also revealed that students’ knowledge about special needs groups and their contact frequency with individuals with special needs are significant factors affecting their social distance. However, social distance does not differ with respect to gender of the participants.

Epidemiological modelling of the health and economic effects of COVID-19 control in Australia’s second wave

BackgroundWe investigated the public health and economy outcomes of different levels of social distancing to control a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Australia and identify implications for public health management of COVID-19.MethodsIndividual-based and compartment models were used to simulate the effects of different social distancing and detection strategies on Australian COVID-19 infections and the economy from March to July 2020. These models were used to evaluate the effects of different social distancing levels and the early relaxation of suppression measures, in terms of public health and economy outcomes.ResultsThe models, fitted to observations up to July 2020, yielded projections consistent with subsequent cases and showed that better public health outcomes and lower economy costs occur when social distancing measures are more stringent, implemented earlier and implemented for a sufficiently long duration. Early relaxation of suppression results in worse public health outcomes and higher economy costs.ConclusionsBetter public health outcomes (reduced COVID-19 fatalities) are positively associated with lower economy costs and higher levels of social distancing; achieving zero community transmission lowers both public health and economy costs compared to allowing community transmission to continue; and early relaxation of social distancing increases both public health and economy costs.

Dining with distance during the pandemic: an enquiry from the theory of proxemics and social exchange

ABSTRACT Building on proxemics theory and social exchange theory, this study investigated how different levels of psychological social distancing, protective wears, and social interactions influence customers’ perceived risk, social exchange with service employees and their intention to avoid dining in restaurants under the ‘new normal’ of COVID-19. Using an experimental design with a total of 404 participants in US, this study shows that regardless of social distancing measures, both protective wear and social interaction levels can significantly influence customers’ risk perception and social exchange quality. The study contributes to the tourism and hospitality literature by providing a timely understanding of customers’ psychological perceptions, and responses of dining in restaurants during this difficult transition time. More importantly, this study adds hard empirical evidence to the current debate of restaurant re-open measures beyond widely circulating opinion pieces.

Attitudes of education and rehabilitation students towards individuals with intellectual disabilities

The attitudes of education and rehabilitation students towards people with intellectual disabilities are very important, because they aim to be future professionals who will provide educational and rehabilitation treatment to these people, as well as advocates for their rights and needs. This study aimed to analyse the attitudes of students towards people with intellectual disabilities and to determine whether their attitudes differed based on self assessments and sources of knowledge about intellectual disabilities, ways of getting to know a person with intellectual disabilities, and number of years of education. The study involved 100 students undergoing their first cycle of studies at the Faculty for Special Education and Rehabilitation, University of Tuzla. The Mental Retardation Attitude Inventory-Revised (MRAI-R) and a general questionnaire were used in this study. The results show that students express positive attitudes towards people with intellectual disabilities, they are positive about educational integration of these people, and respect their rights. They do not express to need to socially distance from them and do not attribute unfavourable characteristics to these people. There were no differences in attitudes based on self-assessments of knowledge and the sources of knowledge about intellectual disabilities, or the way in which they got to know a person with intellectual disabilities. There was a significant difference in attitudes based on the number of years of education: fourth-year students were observed to express the highest degree of positive attitudes towards people with intellectual disabilities globally and towards the integration of these people in society, and they expressed the lowest level of social distance. Given the small sample of research subjects, as well as the fact that the study involved students of one education and rehabilitation faculty. in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the results obtained and the conclusions derived from them should be considered with caution. Future research should include a larger sample of education and rehabilitation students to verify the results obtained in this study.

Associations Between Compliance With Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and Social-distancing Policies in Korea During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Objectives:This study explored changes in individuals’ behavior in response to social distancing (SD) levels and the “no gatherings of more than 5 people” (NGM5) rule in Korea during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.Methods:Using survey data from the COVID-19 Behavior Tracker, exploratory factor analysis extracted 3 preventive factors: maintenance of personal hygiene, avoiding going out, and avoiding meeting people. Each factor was used as a dependent variable. The chi-square test was used to compare differences in distributions between categorical variables, while binary logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with high compliance with measures to prevent transmission.Results:In men, all 3 factors were significantly associated with lower compliance. Younger age groups were associated with lower compliance with maintenance of personal hygiene and avoiding meeting people. Employment status was significantly associated with avoiding going out and avoiding meeting people. Residence in the capital area was significantly associated with higher compliance with personal hygiene and avoiding venturing out. Increasing SD levels were associated with personal hygiene, avoiding going out, and avoiding meeting people. The NGM5 policy was not significantly associated with compliance.Conclusions:SD levels, gender, age, employment status, and region had explanatory power for compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Strengthening social campaigns to inspire voluntary compliance with NPIs, especially focused on men, younger people, full-time workers, and residents of the capital area is recommended. Simultaneously, efforts need to be made to segment SD measures into substrategies with detailed guidance at each level.

Impact of social distancing on the spread of common respiratory viruses during the coronavirus disease outbreak.

During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, social distancing was effective in controlling disease spread across South Korea. The impact of national social distancing on the spread of common respiratory virus infections has rarely been investigated. We evaluated the weekly proportion of negative respiratory virus polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results and weekly positive rates of each respiratory virus during the social distancing period (10th-41st weeks of 2020) and the corresponding period in different years, utilizing the national respiratory virus surveillance dataset reported by the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The proportions of negative respiratory virus PCR test results increased up to 87.8% and 86.1% during level 3 and level 2 of the social distancing period, respectively. The higher the level of social distancing, the higher the proportion of negative respiratory virus PCR test results. During the social distancing period, the mean weekly positive rates for parainfluenza virus, influenza virus, human coronavirus, and human metapneumovirus were significantly lower than those during the same period in 2015-2019 (0.1% vs. 9.3%, P <0.001; 0.1% vs. 7.2%, P <0.001; 0.4% vs. 2.3%, P <0.001; and 0.2% vs. 5.3%, P <0.001, respectively). The mean positive rate for rhinovirus/enterovirus during level 3 social distancing was lower than that in the same period in 2015-2019 (8.5% vs. 19.0%, P <0.001), but the rate during level 1 social distancing was higher than that in the same period in 2015-2019 (38.3% vs. 19.4%, P <0.001). The national application of social distancing reduced the spread of common respiratory virus infections during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Healthcare professionals' social distance towards immigrant patients: A descriptive cross‐sectional study

This study aimed to determine the attitudes, beliefs, experiences, and the level of social distance among healthcare professionals who provide healthcare to refugee patients. Descriptive cross-sectional study. The researchers obtained the ethical approval of the study from the Non-Interventional Ethical Committee of Sakarya University Faculty of Medicine on 23/11/2018. The study was carried out between December 2018 and February 2019 at Sakarya University Research and Training Hospital. A total of 1484 healthcare professionals work at clinics which are likely to offer care to refugee patients. Descriptive analyses were performed for the study. The data were collected by a questionnaire created by the researchers in light of related literature to investigate the sociodemographic characteristics of the participants and their work-related descriptive characteristics (such as, experience, beliefs, etc.) which may affect their attitudes while providing healthcare to refugee patients. The form was prepared by the researchers based on the literature knowledge. For determining the level of social distance towards refugee patients, Arkar's28 social distance scale was used. Health professionals show a serious level of social distance towards refugee patients due to various difficulties but mainly because of the language barrier. Healthcare professionals have great social distance to refugee patients. Moreover, they can continue their professional attitudes towards patients in emotional terms.

What Happened Pre- and during COVID-19 in South Korea? Comparing Physical Activity, Sleep Time, and Body Weight Status

The purpose of the current study is to investigate the changes in physical activity (PA), sleep time (ST), and body weight (BW) Pre- and during COVID-19 in South Korea, and specifically, PA data were obtained during COVID-19 at three-time points based on the multilevel social distancing policies. All data were surveyed by questionnaires online and offline, and participants were required to fill in the monthly average of daily step counts were recorded an application on participants’ smartphone devices from Pre-COVID-19 (2019 year) and during COVID-19 (2020 year). Participants were 834 adults (males: 54.4%, female: 45.6%) and all statistical analyses were summarized by SPSS 25.0 program. The monthly average of daily step counts was 6747.09 during Pre-COVID-19, but the PA during COVID-19 was 5812.11 daily step counts per month. Also, there were significant pairwise differences between average PA Pre-COVID-19 and each level of social distancing (p < 0.001). After COVID-19, the participants who slept less than 7 h decreased by 3.6%, while those who slept more than 9 h increased by that much. As a result of BW, 269 participants responded their BW changed during COVID-19, and 199 of them reported they gained BW during COVID-19 (74.0%). Although self-reported questionnaires may have led to an under-or over-estimation of ST and BW, the present study found that the environment in which the COVID-19 is prevalent had adverse relationships on PA, ST, and BW. Therefore, it is important to identify strategies to motivate individuals for remaining physically active and getting adequate sleep while maintaining social distancing due to the presence of the COVID-19 global pandemic.

COVID-19 in Amazonas, Brazil, was driven by the persistence of endemic lineages and P.1 emergence.

The northern state of Amazonas is among the regions in Brazil most heavily affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and has experienced two exponentially growing waves, in early and late 2020. Through a genomic epidemiology study based on 250 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from different Amazonas municipalities sampled between March 2020 and January 2021, we reveal that the first exponential growth phase was driven mostly by the dissemination of lineage B.1.195, which was gradually replaced by lineage B.1.1.28 between May and June 2020. The second wave coincides with the emergence of the variant of concern (VOC) P.1, which evolved from a local B.1.1.28 clade in late November 2020 and replaced the parental lineage in <2 months. Our findings support the conclusion that successive lineage replacements in Amazonas were driven by a complex combination of variable levels of social distancing measures and the emergence of a more transmissible VOC P.1 virus. These data provide insights to understanding the mechanisms underlying the COVID-19 epidemic waves and the risk of dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 VOC P.1 in Brazil and, potentially, worldwide.

Quantifying the Effects of Social Distancing on the Spread of COVID-19.

This paper studies the interplay between social distancing and the spread of the COVID-19 disease—a global pandemic that has affected most of the world’s population. Our goals are to (1) to observe the correlation between the strictness of social distancing policies and the spread of disease and (2) to determine the optimal adoption level of social distancing policies. The earliest instances of the virus were found in China, and the virus has reached the United States with devastating consequences. Other countries severely affected by the pandemic are Brazil, Russia, the United Kingdom, Spain, India, Italy, and France. Although it is impossible to stop it, it is possible to slow down its spread to reduce its impact on the society and economy. Governments around the world have deployed various policies to reduce the virus spread in response to the pandemic. To assess the effectiveness of these policies, the system’s dynamics of the society needs to be analyzed, which is generally not possible with mathematical linear equations or Monte Carlo methods because human society is a complex adaptive system with continuous feedback loops. Because of the challenges with the other methods, we chose agent-based methods to conduct our study. Moreover, recent agent-based modeling studies for the COVID-19 pandemic show significant promise in assisting decision-makers in managing the crisis by applying policies such as social distancing, disease testing, contact tracing, home isolation, emergency hospitalization, and travel prevention to reduce infection rates. Based on modeling studies conducted in Imperial College, increasing levels of interventions could slow the spread of disease and infection. We ran the model with six different percentages of social distancing while keeping the other parameters constant. The results show that social distancing affects the spread of COVID-19 significantly, in turn decreasing the spread of disease and infection rates when implemented at higher levels. We also validated these results by using the behavior space tool with ten experiments with varying social distancing levels. We conclude that applying and increasing social distancing policy levels leads to a significant reduction in infection spread and the number of deaths. Both experiments show that infection rates are reduced drastically when social distancing intervention is implemented between 80% to 100%.

Social distancing, politics and wealth

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, governments across Europe have attempted to prevent the spread of the disease by limiting the movement of their citizens. In this article, we analyse whether the level of compliance with social distancing measures is associated with political, economic, and demographic factors. In particular, our interests lie in two areas. First, as lockdowns have dragged on, many countries see some political resistance, often, though not always, from populist movements: are localities that support populist movements more likely to ignore social distancing measures? Secondly, economic security: do localities with higher levels of income and wealth have higher levels of social distancing? We combine anonymised movement data from people’s mobile phones drawn from the Google Community Mobility surveys with subnational economic and demographic data to answer these questions. It is found that across Europe, social distancing patterns correlate strongly with populist attitudes and economic security. Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at: http://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1917154

AB0681 HOW COMMON IS COVID-19 IN CHILDREN, YOUNG PEOPLE AND ADULTS WITH RHEUMATIC DISEASES? RESULTS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COVID-19 EUROPEAN PATIENT REGISTRY

Background:People with rheumatic diseases may be at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 due to their rheumatic disease or immunosuppressive treatments. It is currently unclear what the COVID-19 disease burden is for these people and whether any of their personal or disease characteristics are associated with contracting COVID-19.Objectives:To explore the proportion of, and characteristics associated with, contracting COVID-19 in children and young people (CYP) with rheumatic diseases and adults with rheumatic diseases from March 2020 to December 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods:CYP and adults recruited to the international COVID-19 European Patient Registry, a parent-led, online, self-referred prospective cohort recruiting participants from around the globe, were included in current study if enrolled between 20th March 2020 and 30th December 2020. Demographic information was collected at enrolment and rheumatic disease, diagnoses of COVID-19 and lifestyle factors were collected at weekly intervals.The proportion of CYP and adults diagnosed with COVID-19 were assessed separately. Associations between contraction of COVID-19 at any point over follow-up and participant demographics, rheumatic disease and lifestyle factors at enrolment were assessed descriptively and via Mann-Whitney U-tests, Chi-squared tests and Fisher’s exact tests.Results:Within 642 CYP and 3646 adults, the majority were female (67%, 89%) and most commonly from the UK (43%, 82%), respectively. The most frequent diagnoses were polyarticular JIA (37%) in the CYP cohort and RA in the adults (63%). Comorbidities were common (45%, 61%) and the majority were taking one or more immunosuppressive therapies (88%, 92%), respectively. At the time of enrolment, 51% and 54% were practising social distancing, respectively.In both cohorts ~3% contracted COVID-19 at some point during follow-up (n=18 (2.8%) in CYP and n=103 (2.8%) in the adult cohort).In CYP, those who contracted COVID-19 were older (no COVID, median: 10, IQR: 7, 13, vs COVID, median: 14, IQR: 12, 16, p&lt;0.001) and less often had oligoarticular JIA (no COVID: 31%, COVID: 22%) or polyarticular JIA (No COVID: 38%, COVID: 11%). Systemic JIA (no COVID: 7%, COVID: 11%) and enthesitis-related JIA (no COVID: 5%, COVID: 22%) were more common in those who contracted COVID. No other differences between those with and without COVID-19 were observed with respect to country of residence (p=0.335), gender (p=0.624), control of rheumatic disease (p=0.459), comorbidities (p=0.752), immunosuppressive medication (p=0.713) or social distancing (p=0.729).In the adult cohort, those contracting COVID-19 were more commonly from Russia (no COVID: 2%, COVID: 14%) and less commonly from the UK (no COVID: 82%, COVID: 71%, p&lt;0.001). There was greater female representation in those that contracted COVID-19 (no COVID: 88%, COVID: 93%, p=0.022). Although there were no differences in overall presence of comorbidity (p=0.923), kidney disease was overrepresented in those that had contracted COVID-19 (no COVID: 2%, COVID: 8%, p&lt;0.001). Finally, there were lower levels of social distancing in those who contracted COVID (no COVID: 54%, COVID: 44%, p=0.047). There were no significant differences in age (p=0.203), BMI (p=0.617), smoking status (p=0.120), rheumatic disease (p=0.181) and its control (p=0.218) or immunosuppressive use (p=0.208) between those who did and did not contract COVID-19 in the adult cohort.Conclusion:A low proportion of CYP and adults with rheumatic diseases contracted COVID-19 in the 9 months since March 2020. However, given the self-reported nature of the survey and limited testing available across many countries, this study may underestimate the true burden of COVID-19 in the rheumatic disease community. Factors associated with COVID-19 differ between CYP and adults, with age and type of rheumatic disease associated in CYP and gender, kidney comorbidity and social distancing associated in adults.Acknowledgements:The authors thank all of the participants and families involved in the international COVID-19 European Patient Registry, as well as administrators. We also thank the team of volunteers who helped translate the surveys. We also thank ENCA, PRES and representatives from the international rheumatology community for their expertise and support.Disclosure of Interests:Stephanie Shoop-Worrall: None declared, Suzanne Verstappen: None declared, Wendy Costello: None declared, Saskya Angevare: None declared, Yosef Uziel: None declared, Carine Wouters: None declared, Nico Wulffraat Speakers bureau: Sobi, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Richard Beesley: None declared

Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in Korea: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy should be implemented to minimize the incidences and mortalities. In this study, we developed an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including vaccination. Using the model and actual epidemiological data in Korea, we estimated the infection probability for each age group under different levels of social distancing implemented in Korea and investigated the effective age-dependent vaccination strategies to reduce the confirmed cases and fatalities of COVID-19. We found that, in a lower level of social distancing, vaccination priority for the age groups with the highest transmission rates will reduce the incidence mostly, but, in higher levels of social distancing, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly age group reduces the infection incidences more effectively. To reduce mortalities, vaccination priority for the elderly age group is the best strategy in all scenarios of levels of social distancing. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of vaccine supply and efficacy on the reduction in incidence and mortality.

Contrasting levels of social distancing between the sexes in lions

SummaryUnderstanding sexual segregation is crucial to comprehend sociality. A comparative analysis of long-term lion data from Serengeti and Ngorongoro in Tanzania, and Gir in India, reveals that male-female associations are contingent upon male and female group size, prey-size and availability, and the number of prides that each male coalition currently resides. Males maintain proximity with females, whereas females are responsible for segregation except at large kills. Lions feed on the largest prey in Ngorongoro and the smallest in Gir, and females spend the most time with males in Ngorongoro and the least in Gir. Females roar less often in prey-scarce circumstances in Serengeti and throughout the year in Gir possibly to prevent being tracked by males that parasitize on female kills. However, females readily associate with males when available prey is large and abundant. Contrasting availability of resources between Gir and Serengeti/Ngorongoro helps explain the varying degrees of sexual segregation and appears to drive differences in mating systems between these lion populations.

Social distance of youth of Luhansk region: survey results

The article is devoted to the study of the social distance of the youth of Luhansk region. Social distance described as a certain degree of closeness and remoteness of people in relation to each other. It illustrates social relationships among people of different cultures, nationalities, social groups, so it is relevant for research. Exploring the problem of social distance, the author turns to the scientific works and research of such scientists as R. Park, E. Bogardus, V. Paniotto, N. Panina and others, describing their contribution to the development of science on this topic. The purpose of this article is to study the social distance of young people in Luhansk region, by conducting this study at the local level, which indicates the lack of such experience before. For this purpose, we chose the method of questionnaires, and 418 young people of Luhansk region of different ages and fields of activity acted as respondents. The study used a simplified method of E. Bogardus to measure the degree of social distance of respondents to representatives of certain social groups, and the terminology of interpretation of social distance by N. Panina. Also, a simplified scale of social distance was used, limited to three possible answers: "I agree to communicate with them personally", "I agree to accept them in society, but would like to avoid personal communication" and "No I want them to be in our society in general, ”and not only national minorities but also social groups of a marginal nature and representatives of sexual minorities were chosen as social groups. Particular attention was paid to the description of the results of the study. The study found that young people in Luhansk region have social closeness to residents of the European Union, are tolerant of people with disabilities, people with COVID-19 and IDPs, as well as socially distant from marginalized groups, sexual minorities and more. As a result, it was proved that the students have an average level of social distance.

An Investigation of Social Distancing and Quantity of Luggage Impacts on the Three Groups Reverse Pyramid Boarding Method

The social distancing imposed by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has affected people’s everyday lives and has resulted in companies changing the way they conduct business. The airline industry has been continually adapting since the novel coronavirus appeared. A series of airlines have changed their airplane boarding and passenger seat allocation process to increase their passengers’ safety. Many suggest a minimum social distance among passengers in the aisle while boarding. Some airlines have reduced their airplanes’ capacities by keeping the middle seats empty. Recent literature indicates that the Reverse Pyramid boarding method provides favorable values for boarding time and passenger health metrics when compared to other boarding methods. This paper analyses the extent to which aisle social distancing, the quantity of carry-on luggage, and an airline’s relative preferences for different performance metrics influence the optimal number of passengers to board the airplane in each of three boarding groups when the Reverse Pyramid method is used and the middle seats are empty. We also investigate the resulting impact on the average boarding time and health risks to boarding passengers. We use an agent-based model and stochastic simulation approach to evaluate various levels of aisle social distancing among passengers and the quantity of luggage carried aboard the airplane. When minimizing boarding time is the primary objective of an airline, for a given value of aisle social distance, decreasing the carry-on luggage volumes increases the optimal number of boarding group 1 passengers and decreases the optimal number of group 2 passengers with aisle seats; for a given volume of luggage, an increase in aisle social distance is associated with more passengers in group 1 and more aisle seat passengers in group 2. When minimizing the health risk to aisle seat passengers or to window seat passengers, the optimal solution results from assigning an equal number of window seat passengers to groups 1 and 2 and an equal number of aisle seat passengers to groups 2 and 3. This solution is robust to changes in luggage volume and the magnitude of aisle social distance. Furthermore, across all luggage and aisle social distancing scenarios, the solution reduces the health risk to aisle seat passengers between 22.76% and 35.31% while increasing average boarding time by less than 3% in each scenario.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance: Correlates in a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the Australian population.

High levels of vaccination coverage in populations will be required even with vaccines that have high levels of effectiveness to prevent and stop outbreaks of coronavirus. The World Health Organisation has suggested that governments take a proactive response to vaccine hesitancy 'hotspots' based on social and behavioural insights. Representative longitudinal online survey of over 3000 adults from Australia that examines the demographic, attitudinal, political and social attitudes and COVID-19 health behavior correlates of vaccine hesitance and resistance to a COVID-19 vaccine. Overall, 59% would definitely get the vaccine, 29% had low levels of hesitancy, 7% had high levels of hesitancy and 6% were resistant. Females, those living in disadvantaged areas, those who reported that risks of COVID-19 was overstated, those who had more populist views and higher levels of religiosity were more likely to be hesitant or resistant while those who had higher levels of household income, those who had higher levels of social distancing, who downloaded the COVID-Safe App, who had more confidence in their state or territory government or confidence in their hospitals, or were more supportive of migration were more likely to intend to get vaccinated. Our findings suggest that vaccine hesitancy, which accounts for a significant proportion of the population can be addressed by public health messaging but for a significant minority of the population with strongly held beliefs, alternative policy measures may well be needed to achieve sufficient vaccination coverage to end the pandemic.

Determining the level of social distancing necessary to avoid future COVID-19 epidemic waves: a modelling study for North East London

Determining the level of social distancing, quantified here as the reduction in daily number of social contacts per person, i.e. the daily contact rate, needed to maintain control of the COVID-19 epidemic and not exceed acute bed capacity in case of future epidemic waves, is important for future planning of relaxing of strict social distancing measures. This work uses mathematical modelling to simulate the levels of COVID-19 in North East London (NEL) and inform the level of social distancing necessary to protect the public and the healthcare demand from future COVID-19 waves. We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model describing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in NEL, calibrated to data on hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19, hospital discharges and in-hospital deaths in NEL during the first epidemic wave. To account for the uncertainty in both the infectiousness period and the proportion of symptomatic infection, we simulated nine scenarios for different combinations of infectiousness period (1, 3 and 5 days) and proportion of symptomatic infection (70%, 50% and 25% of all infections). Across all scenarios, the calibrated model was used to assess the risk of occurrence and predict the strength and timing of a second COVID-19 wave under varying levels of daily contact rate from July 04, 2020. Specifically, the daily contact rate required to suppress the epidemic and prevent a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, and the daily contact rate required to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL system without any additional intervention measures after July 2020, were determined across the nine different scenarios. Our results caution against a full relaxing of the lockdown later in 2020, predicting that a return to pre-COVID-19 levels of social contact from July 04, 2020, would induce a second wave up to eight times the original wave. With different levels of ongoing social distancing, future resurgence can be avoided, or the strength of the resurgence can be mitigated. Keeping the daily contact rate lower than 5 or 6, depending on scenarios, can prevent an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, could keep the effective reproduction number Re below 1 and a secondary COVID-19 wave may be avoided in NEL. A daily contact rate between 6 and 7, across scenarios, is likely to increase Re above 1 and result in a secondary COVID-19 wave with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and associated deaths, but with demand for hospital-based care remaining within the bed capacity of the NEL health and care system. In contrast, an increase in daily contact rate above 8 to 9, depending on scenarios, will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in NEL and may potentially require additional lockdowns. This scenario is associated with significantly increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, and acute COVID-19 care demand is likely to require significant scaling down of the usual operation of the health and care system and should be avoided. Our findings suggest that to avoid future COVID-19 waves and to stay within the acute bed capacity of the NEL health and care system, maintaining social distancing in NEL is advised with a view to limiting the average number of social interactions in the population. Increasing the level of social interaction beyond the limits described in this work could result in future COVID-19 waves that will likely exceed the acute bed capacity in the system, and depending on the strength of the resurgence may require additional lockdown measures.

Knowledge, socio-cognitive perceptions and the practice of hand hygiene and social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study of UK university students

BackgroundDuring the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing and hand hygiene have been the primary means of reducing transmission in the absence of effective treatments or vaccines, but understanding of their determinants is limited. This study aimed to investigate knowledge and socio-cognitive perceptions, and their associations with such protective behaviours, in UK university students.MethodsA cross-sectional online survey of 293 students was undertaken on 13 May 2020. Survey questions addressed demographics, knowledge of the disease and effectiveness of the protective measures, risk perception, socio-cognitive perceptions (e.g. attitude, social support, and self-efficacy), habit, time factors and trust, as well as the hand hygiene and social distancing behaviours. Multiple linear regression was used to identify the strongest associations of potential determinants with behaviour.ResultsParticipants reported high levels of social distancing with 88.9% answering “Mostly” or “Always” for every activity, but only 42.0% reporting the same for all hand hygiene activities. Knowledge of the effectiveness of each activity in preventing transmission was high, with 90.7% and 93.5% respectively identifying at least 7 of 8 hand hygiene or 9 of 10 social distancing activities correctly. Habit (β = 0.39, p = 0.001) and time factors (β = 0.28, p = 0.001) were the greatest contributors to unique variance in hand hygiene behaviour, followed by ethnicity (β = − 0.13, p = 0.014) and risk perception (β = 0.13, p = 0.016). For social distancing behaviour, the determinants were self-efficacy (β = 0.25, p < 0.001), perceived advantages (β = 0.15, p = 0.022), trust in policy (β = 0.14, p = 0.026) and gender (β = − 0.14, p = 0.016). Regression models explained 40% hand hygiene and 25% social distancing variance.ConclusionsThis study indicated that communications about effectiveness of hand hygiene and social distancing behaviours had been effective in terms of knowledge acquisition. However, in the light of likely second waves of COVID-19, attention to maintaining social distancing behaviour and improving hand hygiene behaviour may need to address more difficult areas of changing habits, overcoming time factors and building trust, as well as interventions to increase self-efficacy and address risk perception concerns.

Inefficiency of SIR models in forecasting COVID-19 epidemic: a case study of Isfahan

The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.