Level Of National Income Research Articles

Effect of foreign direct investment on the economy of developing countries: Case of Latvia

The aim of this paper is to determine and evaluate the effect of FDI stock on the Gross Domestic Product per capita and on labor productivity per person, which would give an understanding of the causality of investment in the development of the country. Although foreign investment plays a positive role in the development of several countries, promoting competition, development of employment, and acquiring new knowledge, experience, and technologies, in other countries FDI does not bring significant changes. Summarizing the literature, the authors conclude that there are no unambiguous econometric results on the causal relationship between FDI and economic development in developing, developed, or transition economies, so the authors' research will provide additional insight into the interaction of transition economies with FDI. Within the framework of the conducted research, an adapted Granger causality testing methodology is applied, to find out whether there exists and in which direction a causal relationship can be observed between the income level of Latvian residents, labor productivity, and foreign direct investment. The results of the analysis, which are based on a special VAR compilation mechanism and a modified Wald test, show that foreign investment in Latvia has no causal relationship either with the level of welfare or with labor productivity. The authors conclude that in Latvia there is a correlation between the attraction of foreign investment to the service sectors and the lack of transfer of national knowledge, which is reflected in the lack of a causal relationship between FDI and the level of national income. The authors conclude that in order to improve the welfare level of Latvian residents, the able-bodied population should improve their productivity, aside from attracting additional foreign investment.

Entrepreneurial conditions and economic growth in entrepreneurial ecosystems: Evidence from OECD countries

This study analyses the potential influences of entrepreneurial framework conditions on the economic growth of OECD countries. We correspondingly divided these countries into groups according to their income level (high- and upper-middle-income economies) with the data, structured into an unbalanced dynamic longitudinal panel (2000–2020), obtained from the National Expert Survey, Global Monitor Entrepreneurship and the World Bank. After applying the generalised method of moments, we may report that commercial, professional, physical and service infrastructures, government support and policies, R&D transfers, cultural and social norms and financing entrepreneurs positively affect economic growth independently of the national income level. Basic entrepreneurial education does not attain significance in explaining the economic growth of high-income economies and post-education is not significant in explaining the economic growth of upper-middle-income economies. Furthermore, government programmes generate negative effects on the economic growth of OECD countries when considered jointly and individually in high-income economies but with a positive effect on upper-middle-income economies that display an inverse behaviour in the case of the effects of taxes and bureaucracy. The upper-middle-income economies also registered a negative effect in terms of internal market dynamics and openness even while this factor returned positive effects in high-income economies.

The Effect of Labor, Fiscal Decentralization, And Local Income On The Human Development Index Mediated By The Economic Growth Of Urban And District Areas In East Java Province In 2017-2021

Indonesia`s intensively encouraging even better economic growth by the role of labor as one of the factors of production that will affect the high level of national income in terms of quality or quantity alone. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of labor, fiscal decentralization, and local income on the human development index mediated by the economic growth of urban and district areas in east java province in 2017-2021. The quantitative research method was applied in this research with Explanatory Research, which employs hypothesis testing to explain the correlation among independent and dependent variables. The population in this research was the City of East Java Province in the research period during the period 2017 – 2021. The determination of the number of samples used by researchers is by the census method. The data employed in this study is secondary data using panel data from 2017 – 2021. The analysis technique carried out is the Model Moderator Regression Analysis (MRA), with the help of SPSS version 26 application. This study concludes that the Labor variable has an influence on the Human Development Index, the Fiscal Decentralization variable has no effect on the Human Development Index, the Local Revenue variable has an influence on the Human Development Index, the Regional Economic Growth variable has no influence on the Human Development Index, the Labor variable has an influence on Regional Economic Growth, the variable Fiscal Decentralization has no effect on Regional Economic Growth, the Local Revenue variable has no influence on Regional Economic Growth, the Regional Economic Growth variable cannot mediate the influence of Labor on the Human Development Index, the Regional Economic Growth variable cannot mediate the effect of Fiscal Decentralization on the Human Development Index and Regional Economic Growth variables cannot mediate the effect of Local Revenue on the Human Development Index.

An ecological study of the burden of road traffic crashes in the Middle East and North Africa

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) and deaths constitute a serious preventable global public health problem. To analyse time trends of age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by RTIs in 23 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries; and to assess the correlation between national implementation of best practice for road safety recommended by the World Health Organization, national income level, and RTI burden. Time trend analysis over 17 years (2000-2016) was conducted using Joinpoint regression. An overall score was calculated for each country to assess implementation of best practice for road safety. Mortality decreased significantly (P < 0.05) in Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, and Tunisia. In most MENA countries, DALYs increased but they significantly decreased in the Islamic Republic of Iran. The score calculated varied widely among the MENA countries. In 2016, no correlation was identified between the overall score and mortality and DALYs. National income was not associated with RTI mortality or the calculated overall score. Countries in the MENA region had varying levels of success in reducing the burden from RTIs. During the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2021-2030, MENA countries can achieve optimal road safety by implementing measures that are customized for the local context, such as law enforcement and public education. Other focus areas for improving road safety are building capacity in sustainable safety management and leadership, improving vehicle standards, and addressing gaps in areas such as use of child restraint.

Circumstances for treatment and control of invasive Enterobacterales infections in eight hospitals across sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Bloodstream infections caused by Enterobacterales show high frequency of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in many Low- and Middle-Income Countries. We aimed to describe the variation in circumstances for management of such resistant infections in a group of African public-sector hospitals participating in a major research study. Methods: We gathered data from eight hospitals across sub-Saharan Africa to describe hospital services, infection prevention and antibiotic stewardship activities, using two WHO-generated tools. We collected monthly cross-sectional data on availability of antibiotics in the hospital pharmacies for bloodstream infections caused by Enterobacterales. We compared the availability of these antibiotics to actual patient-level use of antibiotics in confirmed Enterobacterales bloodstream infections (BSI). Results: Hospital circumstances for institutional management of resistant BSI varied markedly. This included self-evaluated infection prevention level (WHO-IPCAF score: median 428, range 155 to 687.5) and antibiotic stewardship activities (WHO stewardship toolkit questions: median 14.5, range 2 to 23). These results did not correlate with national income levels. Across all sites, ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin were the most consistently available antibiotic agents, followed by amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin and co-trimoxazole. There was substantial variation in the availability of some antibiotics, especially carbapenems, amikacin and piperacillin-tazobactam with degree of access linked to national income level. Investigators described out-of-pocket payments for access to additional antibiotics at 7/8 sites. The in-pharmacy availability of antibiotics correlated well with actual use of antibiotics for treating BSI patients. Conclusions: There was wide variation between these African hospitals for a range of important circumstances relating to treatment and control of severe bacterial infections, though these did not all correspond to national income level. For most antibiotics, patient-level use reflected in-hospital drug availability, suggesting external antibiotics supply was infrequent. Antimicrobial resistant bacterial infections could plausibly show different clinical impacts across sub-Saharan Africa due to this contextual variation.

Income inequality, cultural capital, and high school students' academic achievement in OECD countries: A moderated mediation analysis.

This study examines how social context, in this case, income inequality, shapes the role of cultural capital in educational success. First, we revisit the associations between (objectified) cultural capital and academic achievement, and cultural capital's role in mediating the relationship between family SES and academic achievement. More importantly, we explore how national-level income inequality moderates these two relationships. By analyzing a multilevel dataset of 32 OECD countries, a combination of PISA 2018 data and several national indexes, we find that: (1) cultural capital not only has a positive association with students' academic achievement but also acts as a significant mediator of the relationship between family SES and academic achievement in OECD countries; (2) both cultural capital's association with academic achievement and it's mediating role are stronger in more equal countries than in unequal ones. The findings shed new light on understanding how cultural capital shapes intergenerational education inequality across countries with different levels of inequality.

Association of socioeconomic status with cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide, and several studies have indicated the association between socioeconomic status (SES) with CVD and cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs). It is necessary to elucidate the association of SES and CVRFs with CVD. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library for publications, using "socioeconomic status," "cardiovascular disease," and corresponding synonyms to obtain literature. The quality of studies was evaluated using the National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool (NIH-QAT). All analyses were performed using Stata V.12.0. There were 31 eligible studies included in this meta-analysis. All studies presented a low risk of bias via NIH-QAT assessment. As for CVD incidence/mortality, pooled hazard ratios (HR) of low and middle vs. high income were [HR = 1.22 (1.17-1.28); HR = 1.12 (1.09-1.16)] and [HR = 1.37 (1.21-1.56); HR = 1.19 (1.06-1.34)]. The HR of education were [HR = 1.44 (1.28-1.63); HR = 1.2 (1.11-1.3)] and [HR = 1.5 (1.22-1.83); HR = 1.13 (1.05-1.22)]. The HR of deprivation were [HR = 1.28 (1.16-1.41); HR = 1.07 (1.03-1.11)] and [HR = 1.19 (1.11-1.29); HR = 1.1 (1.02-1.17)]. SES was negatively correlated with CVD outcomes. A subgroup analysis of gender and national income level also yielded a negative correlation, and additional details were also obtained. SES is inversely correlated with CVD outcomes and the prevalence of CVRFs. As for CVD incidence, women may be more sensitive to income and education. In terms of CVD mortality, men may be more sensitive to income and education, and people from low- and middle-income countries are sensitive to income and education. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01825-4.

More people too poor to move: divergent effects of climate change on global migration patterns

The observed temperature increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has impacted economies worldwide. National income levels in origin and destination countries influence international migration. Emigration is relatively low not only from high income countries but also from very poor regions, which is explained in current migration theory by credit constraints and lower average education levels, among other reasons. These relationships suggest a potential non-linear, indirect effect of climate change on migration through this indirect channel. Here we explore this effect through a counterfactual analysis using observational data and a simple model of migration. We show that a world without climate change would have seen less migration during the past 30 years, but that this effect is strongly reduced due to inhibited mobility. Our framework suggests that migration within the Global South has been strongly reduced because these countries have seen less economic growth than they would have experienced without climate change. Importantly, climate change has impacted international migration in the richer and poorer parts of the world very differently. In the future, climate change may keep increasing global migration as it slows down countries’ transition across the middle-income range associated with the highest emigration rates.

Time-varying impact of information and communication technology on carbon emissions

To investigate the time-varying net environmental impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), we apply the local linear dummy variable estimation (LLDVE) method using a panel data consisting of 63 countries for the period 1995–2017. Our analysis reveals that ICT increases CO2 emissions until 2004, while reducing them after 2008, regardless of the national income level. We further uncover that the positive environmental impact of ICT on high-income countries is about 10 times greater than that on middle-income countries over time. These findings indicate that the development of ICT should be encouraged to alleviate carbon emissions on a global scale, especially for middle-income countries, given the benefits of an improved technology absorption rate on the mitigation effect in high income countries.

Systematic estimates of the global, regional and national under-5 mortality burden attributable to birth defects in 2000–2019: a summary of findings from the 2020 WHO estimates

ObjectivesTo examine the potential for bias in the estimate of under-5 mortality due to birth defects recently produced by the WHO and the Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation research group.DesignSystematic...

Evaluation of Environmental Radiation and Image Quality by Type of High-Energy Electromagnetic Wave Radiation Computed Tomography

With the enhancement of national income level, the number of computed tomography (CT) exams to diagnose diseases is increasing more and more. To utilize the data for the safety control of X-ray, the image quality of the environmental radiation at the boundaries in the radiation zone of the exam rooms by type of CT using highenergy electromagnetic wave. The locations of the environmental radiation measurement were shielding wall of the door for patients, door for patients, door to CT control room, shielding wall of the door for CT control room, and window to see the patients, and the glass dosimeters were installed 150 to 170 cm above the floor considering the location of the device to be measured for 3 months and analyzed. The environmental radiations in the MDCT room were measured with 3.09 ± 2.31 mSv, 0.51 ± 0.12 mSv, 0.99 ± 0.43 mSv, 0.27 ± 0.03 mSv, and 0.18 ± 0.03 mSv at the door to the control room, the wall of the control room, door for patients, door wall, and window to see the patients, respectively. In the mobile CT room, the radiation was detected only at the door of the control room with 1.65 ± 0.15 mSv, and no radiation was detected at the other boundaries. In the PET-CT room, the radiations were detected with 0.18 ± 0.03 mSv and 0.27 ± 0.03 mSv at the door and door wall, respectively, without detection at the other boundaries. Upon the results of image quality by CT devices, very satisfactory outcomes were found in terms of contrast, clarity of the boundaries, and detection rate of lesions in all the acquired images, and also very satisfactory in the functional evaluations of the organs in PET-CT only. These results are anticipated to be used as the reference data to establish the systemic and efficient systems and policies in the safety control of X-ray in the future.

Service delivery challenges in HIV care during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a site assessment survey across the global IeDEA consortium.

Interruptions in treatment pose risks for people with HIV (PWH) and threaten progress in ending the HIV epidemic; however, the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on HIV service delivery across diverse settings is not broadly documented. From September 2020 to March 2021, the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) research consortium surveyed 238 HIV care sites across seven geographic regions to document constraints in HIV service delivery during the first year of the pandemic and strategies for ensuring care continuity for PWH. Descriptive statistics were stratified by national HIV prevalence (<1%, 1-4.9% and ≥5%) and country income levels. Questions about pandemic-related consequences for HIV care were completed by 225 (95%) sites in 42 countries with low (n = 82), medium (n = 86) and high (n = 57) HIV prevalence, including low- (n = 57), lower-middle (n = 79), upper-middle (n = 39) and high- (n = 50) income countries. Most sites reported being subject to pandemic-related restrictions on travel, service provision or other operations (75%), and experiencing negative impacts (76%) on clinic operations, including decreased hours/days, reduced provider availability, clinic reconfiguration for COVID-19 services, record-keeping interruptions and suspension of partner support. Almost all sites in low-prevalence and high-income countries reported increased use of telemedicine (85% and 100%, respectively), compared with less than half of sites in high-prevalence and lower-income settings. Few sites in high-prevalence settings (2%) reported suspending antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic services, and many reported adopting mitigation strategies to support adherence, including multi-month dispensing of ART (95%) and designating community ART pick-up points (44%). While few sites (5%) reported stockouts of first-line ART regimens, 10-11% reported stockouts of second- and third-line regimens, respectively, primarily in high-prevalence and lower-income settings. Interruptions in HIV viral load (VL) testing included suspension of testing (22%), longer turnaround times (41%) and supply/reagent stockouts (22%), but did not differ across settings. While many sites in high HIV prevalence settings and lower-income countries reported introducing or expanding measures to support treatment adherence and continuity of care, the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in disruptions to VL testing and ART supply chains that may negatively affect the quality of HIV care in these settings.

Environmental feasibility of a gradual shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy in India: Evidence from multiple structural breaks cointegration

The prime purpose of this study is to empirically explore the comparative environmental impact of renewable and non renewable energy consumption in India. The study also investigates the impact of increasing levels of national income and development of financial sector on environmental quality and applicability of “Pollution Haven Hypothesis” in the country. Multiple structural breaks based [1] cointegration test has been applied to investigate the presence of cointegrating relationship among the variables. Modified Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds test has been applied to ascertain cointegration. The empirical results confirmed presence of cointegration with three structural breaks. The long run results revealed that renewable energy consumption has no direct mitigating impact on emission of greenhouse gases, however, a shift from conventional to renewable sources of energy may help the natural environment by lessening the hampering effect of fossil fuels on environment. Hence, India faces a dual challenge of achieving maximum possible growth of national output and simultaneously addressing the rising threat of global warming and climate change. The authors suggest policymakers to take necessary steps for attracting foreign investment in clean energy, providing fiscal and financial incentives for undertaking renewable energy projects and eliminating subsidies to fossil fuels.

Applicability of European Society of Cardiology guidelines according to gross national income.

To assess the feasibility to comply with the recommended actions of ESC guidelines on general cardiology areas in 102 countries and assess how compliance relates to the country's income level. All recommendations from seven ESC guidelines on general cardiology areas were extracted and labelled on recommended actions. A survey was sent to all 102 ESC national and affiliated cardiac societies (NCSs). Respondents were asked to score recommended actions on their availability in clinical practice on a four-point Likert scale (fully available, mostly/often available, mostly/often unavailable, fully unavailable), and select the top three barriers perceived as being responsible for limiting their national availability. Applicability was assessed overall, per World Bank gross national income (GNI) level, and per guideline.A total of 875 guideline recommendations on general cardiology was extracted. Responses were received from 64 of 102 (62.7%) NCSs. On average, 71·6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 68.6-74.6] of the actions were fully available, 9.9% (95% CI: 8.7-11.1) mostly/often available, 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.0) mostly/often unavailable, and 11·8% (95% CI: 9.5-14.1) fully unavailable. In low-income countries (LICs), substantially more actions were fully unavailable [29·4% (95% CI: 22.6-36.3)] compared with high-income countries [HICs, countries 2.4% (95% CI: 1.2-3.7); P < 0.05]. Nevertheless, a proportion of actions with the lowest availability scores were often fully or mostly unavailable independent of GNIs. Actions were most often not available due to lack of reimbursement and other financial barriers. Local implementation of ESC guidelines on general cardiology is high in HICs and low in LICs , being inversely correlated with country gross national incomes.

Digitizable Product Trade Development and Carbon Emission: Evidence from 94 Countries

In the face of increasingly severe climate change and its destructive effects, how to effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions has become a challenging task. Developing a digital economy provides opportunities for countries to reduce pollution and carbon emissions and reach a goal of carbon neutrality. As an emerging trade form, digitizable product trade is of great significance to promoting economic growth and carbon emission reduction. This paper selects panel data for 94 countries from 2001 to 2019 and adopts the STIRPAT model to analyze the impact effect and impact mechanism of digitizable product trade on carbon emissions. Research results show that developing digitizable product trade will help countries reduce carbon emissions. The conclusion is robust by replacing the explained variable and core explanatory variable. The carbon emission reduction effect has heterogeneity due to differentiated national income levels and product categories. Mechanism analysis shows that digitizable product trade reduces carbon emissions through the technology effect. Our analysis indicates that countries developing digital trade and digital technology and actively responding to environmental issues have a greater chance of reduced carbon emissions.

Climate change and international migration: Exploring the macroeconomic channel

International migration patterns, at the global level, can to a large extent be explained through economic factors in origin and destination countries. On the other hand, it has been shown that global climate change is likely to affect economic development over the coming decades. Here, we demonstrate how these future climate impacts on national income levels could alter the global migration landscape. Using an empirically calibrated global migration model, we investigate two separate mechanisms. The first is through destination-country income, which has been shown consistently to have a positive effect on immigration. As countries' income levels relative to each other are projected to change in the future both due to different rates of economic growth and due to different levels of climate change impacts, the relative distribution of immigration across destination countries also changes as a result, all else being equal. Second, emigration rates have been found to have a complex, inverted U-shaped dependence on origin-country income. Given the available migration flow data, it is unclear whether this dependence-found in spatio-temporal panel data-also pertains to changes in a given migration flow over time. If it does, then climate change will additionally affect migration patterns through origin countries' emigration rates, as the relative and absolute positions of countries on the migration "hump" change. We illustrate these different possibilities, and the corresponding effects of 3°C global warming (above pre-industrial) on global migration patterns, using climate model projections and two different methods for estimating climate change effects on macroeconomic development.

The Impact of Economic Indicators on Education Level of Women in Developing Countries

Purpose: In the context of developing countries, it is to test the effect of economic factors such as per capita income, poverty level and income distribution unfairness on the education level of women. Methodology: In the study; cross-section analysis was performed by establishing a multiple regression model within the context of 82 developing countries included in the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) 2019 Human Development Report. While the dependent variable in the model is the proportion of women population aged 25 and over with at least secondary education (%), the independent variables are composed of economic variables such as the multidimensional poverty index, the inequality in income (%) and the gross national income per capita. The data are taken from UNDP's Human Development Report 2019. Findings: As expected as a result of the cross-section analysis, it was determined that as the income distribution unfairness and poverty increased, the proportion of women population aged 25 and over with at least secondary education (%) decreased, but as the level of gross national income per capita raised, the proportion of women population aged 25 and over with at least secondary education (%) also increased. Highlights: In developing countries, if the income distribution injustice and poverty are effectively tackled, gender inequality in education can be reduced more easily.

Pro-environmental food practices in EU countries strongly suggest mutually reinforcing improvements in gender equality and environmental sustainability

This paper seeks to understand how pro-environmental food practices among women and men in the EU can be supported by considering the interlinkages between gender equality and environmental sustainability. A special aspect is that the role of gender equality is interpreted in terms of Schwartz's theory on national cultural values, which relates gender equality to cultures that emphasize intellectual autonomy and egalitarianism. The paper investigated how pro-environmental food practices (including meat reduction) among women and men correlated with their countries' national income level and its level of gender equality. It was a multilevel analysis of survey data from 27 countries (Eurobarometer 95.1, Spring 2021). Considering that studies about gender equality and the environment often find problematically high correlations between gender equality and national income, this study focused on political gender equality (i.e. women's representation in parliament), which had desirable characteristics. National income and political gender equality had complementary impacts on the adoption of pro-environmental food practices (including meat reduction). Men reported more target practices when living in richer countries; the same applied even more strongly to women when living in richer and more politically gender-balanced countries. It was concluded that women may have developed more autonomy by, inter alia, adopting pro-environmental food practices. At the level of individual behavior, this illustrates “mutually reinforcing dynamics” in the pursuit of gender equality and environmental sustainability goals.

MICHAŁ KALECKI’S SCIENTIFIC LEGACY AS A MODEL FOR UNDERSTANDING CONTEMPORARY CRISES

Recurring crises slowing down economic activities and the resulting consequences paint the picture of modern economies. Therefore, it seems justified to draw on the achievements of economics with a view to explaining the causes of socio-economic crises. The article uses a descriptive method. The objective of the article is to understand the substance of the phenomenon; therefore, the author seeks certain analogies in the past and refers to the work of the Polish scholar Michał Kalecki. The basic conclusion of the article is: J.M. Keynes built a new macroeconomic theory based on the fundamental proposition that manufacturers’ supply (the levels of national income and employment) depended on aggregate demand. In the mid-1930s, a similar thought was formulated by Poland’s most eminent economist, Michał Kalecki. He constructed his business cycle model based on the aforementioned fundamental proposition. It meant that profits and national income were determined by effective investor and consumer demand. J.M. Keynes’s and M. Kalecki’s stressing the pivotal role of aggregate demand was a revolution in economic thinking. It should be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic is not merely a short-term change in economic activity. As predicted by various international institutions, it will have a lasting impact on the functioning of the global economy.

FORECASTING OF TURKEY'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR FUTURE PERIODS WITH ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

In world economies, in order to achieve high national income level, employment has an important effect. Therefore, it is necessary for unemployment to be highly low. Labor force structure of a country specifies the state of that country, and that unemployment rates are at high levels is an indicator of that there is a deviation in the development and growth rate of country economy. In this context, forecasting unemployment rates in the next periods of Turkey, in order to develop solution suggestions for unemployment problem which is one of the most important problems of today, and make contribution to improving country economy, it was decided to conduct such a study. In this forecasting study conducted, due to the fact that the risk to obtain wrong results with traditional methods is high in the solutions of chaotic contented problems, it was decided to be used ANN (Artificial Neural Network) method, which presents healthy solutions of the chaotic problems including partly erroneous or over deviating data and is one of the contemporary methods, commonly used in the literature. In the study, utilizing the monthly basic economic indicators of Turkey belonging to the period of 2005-2018, forecast of unemployment rate for the next periods was made by ANN method, and the data belonging to totally six basic economic indicators were used in the forecast. As a conclusion of the study, it was identified that the forecast made by the model developed produced the reliable results that are quite close to the reality.