Level Of Financial Sector Development Research Articles

Institutional framework and capital structure of microfinance institutions

This article addresses the question of whether institutional frameworks matter in the capital structure of microfinance institutions. We studied a sample of 292 MFIs between 2004 and 2009. Our findings suggest that creditor rights, a country's legal tradition, and the level of financial sector development are significantly related to MFIs' level of external finance. Furthermore, the positive relationship between banking sector development and borrowings enables us to conclude that the microfinance sector and the formal banking sector are complementary. In addition, a split sample technique is used in order to assess the external validity of the model. Findings from this cross-validation strengthen the results obtained from the whole sample and indicate that our model seems to predict well the effect of institutional variables on the capital structure of MFIs.

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?

This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Disasters and development: natural disasters, credit constraints, and economic growth

Using a simple two-period model of the economy, we demonstrate the potential effects of natural disasters on economic growth over the medium to long term. In particular, we focus on the effect of such shocks on investment. We examine two polar cases: an economy in which agents have unconstrained access to capital markets, versus a credit-constrained version, where the economy is assumed to operate in financial autarky. Considering these extreme cases allows us to highlight the interaction of disasters and economic underdevelopment, manifested through poorly developed financial markets. The predictions of our theoretical model are tested using a panel of data on natural disaster events at the country-year level, for the period 1979–2007. We find that for countries with low levels of financial sector development, natural disasters have persistent negative effects on economic growth over the medium term. These results are robust to various checks.

Banking Sector Development and Economic Growth in Central and Southeastern Europe Countries

The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in 16 transition countries in Central and Southeastern Europe in the period from 1995 to 2010. We apply fixed-effects panel model and control for other relevant determinants of economic growth and endogeneity. We measure the level of banking sector development using the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector as a share of GDP. The second variable for the level of financial sector development is the margin between lending and deposit interest rates. According to our results the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector, apparently does not speed up economic growth in transition countries. The second variable, interest rate margin is negatively but not significantly associated with economic growth.

Foreign Lending, Local Lending, and Economic Growth

Recent research has shown that there is significant cross-country heterogeneity in the previously well-established relationship of finance and long-run growth. We explore this heterogeneity by estimating finite mixture models and by considering the effects of foreign and domestic lending separately. We find that bank lending does not have the same effect on growth or savings in all countries. Country characteristics such as the extent of stock market development, the degree of rule of law, and even the development of the banking sector itself vary considerably across countries and affect the productivity of bank lending in encouraging growth and savings. Furthermore, the effect of bank finance on growth and the effect of foreign bank involvement depend on 1) how well developed the banking sector is, and 2) if foreign banks are involved via loans made by affiliates located within the country or via cross-border loans. The experience of lenders with a presence in the country is important, but only once a threshold level of financial sector development is reached. In countries with underdeveloped banking sectors, the influence of foreign-owned lenders relative to locally-owned banks can be detrimental to growth.

The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in Developing Asia during the 1966–2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in Developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy, that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development, and that the impacts of income levels and the level of financial sector development have been nonlinear (convex and concave, respectively). We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in Developing Asia for the 2011–2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in Developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in Developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.

Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy and that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development. We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for the 2011-2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.

The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

In this paper, we present data on trends over time in domestic saving rates in twelve economies in developing Asia during the 1966-2007 period and analyze the determinants of these trends. We find that domestic saving rates in developing Asia have, in general, been high and rising but that there have been substantial differences from economy to economy and that the main determinants of these trends appear to have been the age structure of the population (especially the aged dependency ratio), income levels, and the level of financial sector development. We then project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for the 2011-2030 period based on our estimation results and find that the domestic saving rate in developing Asia as a whole will remain roughly constant during the next two decades despite rapid population aging in some economies in developing Asia because population aging will occur much later in other economies and because the negative impact of population aging on the domestic saving rate will be largely offset by the positive impact of higher income levels.

Non‐linear effect of exchange rate volatility on exports: the role of financial sector development in emerging East Asian economies

This paper empirically examines the role of financial sector development in influencing the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports of five emerging East Asian countries – China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand – using a GMM‐IV estimation method. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports is conditional on the level of financial sector development. The less financially developed an economy, the more its exports are adversely affected by exchange rate volatility. In addition, a stable exchange rate seems to be a necessary condition to achieve export promotion via a currency depreciation in these economies.

Determinants of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective

This paper gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing special about consumption in China. Rather, the challenge is to explain why the conditioning variables-notably a low level of service sector employment, the level of financial sector development, and low real interest rates-are so different in China relative to other countries' historical experience. The results suggest, in particular, that efforts to further raise household income and the share of employment in the services sector, as well as to develop capital markets, including liberalizing interest rates and creating alternative savings instruments are likely to have the biggest impact on consumption. Other mechanisms to raise household income and mitigate household-specific risk (such as by improving the healthcare and pension systems) also have a role to play.

Determinants of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective

This paper gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing special about consumption in China. Rather, the challenge is to explain why the conditioning variables-notably a low level of service sector employment, the level of financial sector development, and low real interest rates-are so different in China relative to other countries' historical experience. The results suggest, in particular, that efforts to further raise household income and the share of employment in the services sector, as well as to develop capital markets, including liberalizing interest rates and creating alternative savings instruments are likely to have the biggest impact on consumption. Other mechanisms to raise household income and mitigate household-specific risk (such as by improving the healthcare and pension systems) also have a role to play.

On the Non-Linear Negative Relationship between Growth and Volatility under International Capital Flows

This paper treats capital flows as risky growth opportunities for both investing and host countries in a standard mean-variance model. Differing optimal tradeoffs between growth and volatility on both sides of capital flows are examined on the basis of their different attitudes toward destabilizing risk, different considerations of capital market openness, and different levels of financial sector development. It is established that growth and volatility may have a positive or a negative relationship in theory, but in practice, they are correlated negatively with each other. This negative correlation is persistently non-linear after some normalization, and significantly holds not only for developing but also for developed countries. The paper explains why one side’s push for financial liberalization comes across the other side’s resistance to it. This conflict of interest can be resolved via negotiations for compromise equilibrium at which each side’s optimal tradeoff is made internationally compatible.

International Capital Flows: Tradeoff at Optimum and Delay in Bargaining

This paper analyzes differing optimal tradeoffs between growth and volatility by both sides of capital flows on the basis of their different considerations of capital market openness and different levels of financial sector development. Since growth and volatility are negatively correlated, volatility must be kept low to derive high growth from capital flows if wanting to integrate deeply into the global market. The reason why one side’s push for capital market liberalization comes across the other side’s resistance to it is that the former may benefit from openness at the expense of the latter which is financially weak. This conflict of interest can be resolved via negotiations for compromise equilibrium at which each side’s optimal tradeoff is made internationally compatible. Given that strategic delay is used in bargaining as a signaling device for informational revelation, differing valuations of capital flows along with differing degrees of time preference may cause the Lucas paradox and bargaining delay. The paper shows that it does not pay an investing country to force host countries to liberalize their capital markets prematurely.

STOCK MARKET INTEGRATION FOR THE TRANSITION ECONOMIES: TIME‐VARYING CONDITIONAL CORRELATION APPROACH

In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the three emerging Central Eastern European stock markets have become integrated with the aggregate eurozone market over the sample period from 1994 to 2006 by utilizing the dynamic conditional correlation. We find a higher level of the stock market correlation during the period after the Asian and Russian crises and also during the post‐entry period to the European Union. It is found that financial market integration seems to be a largely self‐fuelling process, depending on existing levels of financial sector development for the Czech Republic and Hungary.

Do Efficient Banking Sectors Accelerate Economic Growth in Transition Countries

The relationship between financial sector and economic growth in transition countries has been largely ignored in the earlier empirical literature. In this paper, we analyse the finance-growth nexus using a fixed-effects panel model and unbalanced panel data from 25 transition countries during the period 1993-2000. We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates. Our second variable for the level of financial sector development is the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector as a share of GDP. According to our results, the interest rate margin is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. This outcome is in line with theoretical models and has important policy implications. On the other hand, a rise in the amount of credit does not seem to accelerate economic growth. The main reasons behind this result could be the numerous banking crises the transition countries have experienced and the soft budget constraints that are still prevalent in many transition countries. Due to these specific characteristics the growth in credit has not always been sustainable and in some cases it may have led to a decline in growth rates.

Finance and Income Inequality: What Do the Data Tell Us?

Although there are distinct conjectures about the relationship between finance and income inequality, little empirical research compares their explanatory power. We examine the relationship between finance and income inequality for 83 countries between 1960 and 1995. Because financial development might be endogenous, we use instruments from the literature on law, finance, and growth to control for this. Our results suggest that, in the long run, inequality is less when financial development is greater, consistent with Galor and Zeira (1993) and Banerjee and Newman (1993). Although the results also suggest that inequality might increase as financial sector development increases at very low levels of financial sector development, as suggested by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990), this result is not robust. We reject the hypothesis that financial development benefits only the rich. Our results thus suggest that in addition to improving growth, financial development also reduces inequality.

Finance and Income Inequality: What Do the Data Tell Us?

Although there are distinct conjectures about the relationship between finance and income inequality, little empirical research compares their explanatory power. We examine the relationship between finance and income inequality for 83 countries between 1960 and 1995. Because financial development might be endogenous, we use instruments from the literature on law, finance, and growth to control for this. Our results suggest that, in the long run, inequality is less when financial development is greater, consistent with Galor and Zeira (1993) and Banerjee and Newman (1993). Although the results also suggest that inequality might increase as financial sector development increases at very low levels of financial sector development, as suggested by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990), this result is not robust. We reject the hypothesis that financial development benefits only the rich. Our results thus suggest that in addition to improving growth, financial development also reduces inequality.