Levels Of Electoral Volatility Research Articles

Electoral Performance of New Political Parties in Ukraine: The Context of Electoral Volatility at the Parliamentary Level (1998–2019)

This article is devoted to study and comparative analysis of the features and levels of support for new political parties during parliamentary elections in Ukraine, in particular the period 1998–2019. With this in mind, mainly based on the calculations of the indices of overall electoral volatility, intra-system electoral volatility and extra-system electoral volatility, we analyze the parameters of changes in electoral support (by voters) for political parties, in particular new ones, during the 1998–2019 parliamentary elections in Ukraine. In addition, we correlate overall, intra-system and extra-system electoral volatility, and present the correlation of overall electoral volatility in the sample of all political parties as the subjects of electoral processes in Ukraine and political parties elected to the national parliament (the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine). As a result, the study outlines two clusters of extra-system electoral volatility, which show the highest level of similarity, and calculates the dependence of the level of electoral volatility and stability of the party system in Ukraine. With this background, we conclude that electoral volatility in Ukraine is largely determined by the effect of party affiliation or desire to belong to the government or opposition, and is regulated by the special context of identity politics in this country.

¿Quiénes cambiaron de partido durante la Gran Recesión? Un estudio de 12 países de Europa occidental

Los niveles de volatilidad electoral tras la Gran Recesión de 2008 fueron récord en la mayoría de los países de Europa occidental. Entre las principales causas de esta inestabilidad electoral destacan el desarrollo negativo de la economía, la crisis de los partidos tradicionales y el cambio de los temas de competición política. A nivel individual, se desconoce qué factores propiciaron que los electores cambiasen de preferencia partidista después de la Gran Recesión. Además, en general, se sabe poco sobre las diferencias entre un elector estable y uno volátil. Este estudio de 12 países de Europa occidental tras la crisis económica concluye que el modelo del votante económico no siempre explicó el cambio de preferencia partidista después de 2008, mientras que los sentimientos de desafección política se encuentran entre las principales razones para entender el cambio de partidos entre elecciones.

ЭЛЕКТОРАЛЬНАЯ ПОДВИЖНОСТЬ И КОНСОЛИДАЦИЯ "НОВЫХ ДЕМОКРАТИЙ" В СТРАНАХ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ И ВОСТОЧНОЙ ЕВРОПЫ

The article examines the dynamics of electoral volatility in the post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the early 21st century. Based on the statistical data of elections and the results of sociological researches the article focuses on the influence of economic and politico-cultural factors upon the electoral mobility of population. It is noted that the effect of economic situation on the changing party preferences of voters was lessened as the process of adaption of people to market economy progressed. It is believed that the society political culture in post-communist countries of CEE marked by a low-level party identification of citizens can be considered a more stable factor influencing the dynamics of electoral volatility. Weak party adherence induces voters who are disappointed by current government policy to change party preferencesrather quickly whatin itsturn contributesto maintenance of the high-level electoral volatility. In those circumstances parties are formed and they act purely on the current political situation rather than the existing social and group demands. In case of coming into power party leaders do not consider themselves bound to fulfill the promises which they ladled out during the election campaign, and as a result that can be the cause of a new rise in social disappointment The author concludes that the high level of electoral volatility in the post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe considerably weakens the mechanism of responsible party management and so impedes consolidation of new democracies.

Does the Iron Curtain Still Exist? The Convergence in Electoral Volatility between Eastern and Western Europe

AbstractThe literature on party system change and electoral volatility in post-communist Europe tends to make a clear-cut distinction between Central and Eastern European (CEE) party systems and Western European (WE) ones. The former are unstable and unpredictable and electoral volatility is driven by the continuous emergence of new political parties. Conversely, electoral stability is the rule in the latter, and volatility is associated with electoral shifts among established parties. This conventional wisdom suffers from three potential sources of bias: case selection, time coverage and method. By correcting these biases, this article investigates whether the traditional division between CEE and WE party systems has been levelled as regards volatility. To do so, it presents evidence based on an original data set of electoral volatility and its internal components covering 31 WE and CEE party systems since 1990. It finds that a process of asymmetric convergence in the levels of electoral volatility is taking place between the two regions, with Western Europe approaching Central and Eastern Europe with increasing electoral instability.

Electoral volatility and the dynamics of electoral reform

Recent elections in Europe have shown that a context of increasing citizen distrust towards democratic institutions may lead to very high levels of electoral volatility and to the emergence of new parties. On the other hand, institutional reforms are sometimes presented as a solution to citizens’ discontent with political institutions. Focusing on a specific type of political institution ‒ electoral systems ‒ the question addressed in this study is whether high levels of electoral volatility may trigger electoral reforms. The article investigates the conditions under which reforms affecting the electoral system’s degree of openness to new parties were enacted in 25 European countries between 1945 and 2012. The findings demonstrate that volatility due to the emergence of new parties is the most powerful explanation to account for the introduction of electoral reforms, particularly those that hinder the entry of new parties into the system.

Election forecasting in Lithuania: The case of municipal elections

Abstract This article explores the possibilities for election forecasting in Lithuania, a post-communist country that has a party system which is characterized by high levels of electoral volatility and fragmentation. The main argument of the article is that despite these unfavorable conditions, election forecasting in Lithuania has potential. Since the sample of national parliamentary elections is too limited for statistical modeling, the possibility of forecasting at the level of municipalities in the municipal council elections is discussed. Four factors (local unemployment change, party’s belonging to the national government, population size and lagged vote share) are integrated into a model that strives to predict the vote share of the party that holds the mayor’s post (the dominant political power in the municipal council). The model presented explains more than 70% of the variance in the dependent variable. The case diagnostics reveal that the model predicts municipal election outcomes very accurately.

Does government performance matter? Electoral support for incumbents in six post-communist countries

For two decades, the Central and Eastern European party politics has been characterized by the widespread inability of parties to secure stable political support (reflected in high levels of electoral volatility) to allow their presence in government for consecutive terms. This paper investigates the factors that trigger support for incumbent parties in post-communist countries. In doing so, it examines the effect of individual evaluations at the systemic level (i.e. satisfaction with democracy, government activity), partisan attachment (i.e. preference), and objective indicators of individual economic success (i.e. the level of income) on the vote for incumbents. This cross-national analysis is conducted at the individual-level in six post-communist countries chosen on the basis of the most similar system design. The study uses data from election surveys at two different moments in time (mid-1990s and the first elections of the 2000s) and combines bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses. The results indicate that partisanship and positive evaluations of the government explain most of the vote for incumbents. Apart from these visible patterns, there are some other valuable results in specific countries understandable solely within the larger domestic political context.

Party systems, political cleavages and electoral volatility in IndiaA state-wise analysis, 1998–1999

Abstract One of the defining characteristics of India in the 1990s has been high level of electoral volatility at the national level. However, this aggregate picture masks competing dynamics at the state level. Different states show markedly different patterns. Using survey data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, this paper shows that volatility can be explained by three inter-linked factors: the party system format, the politicisation of social cleavages, and the extent to which these cleavages are polarised. The combined impact of these factors has a strong impact on volatility, both when measured in terms of vote-switching between parties and vote-switching between alliances.

Developments in Russian voting behaviour: 1993 and 1995 compared

Election surveys from the parliamentary elections of December 1993 and December 1995 reveal a high level of electoral volatility, which is explained in terms of general problems of party consolidation in post‐communist conditions and further conditions specific to Russia. Continuities and changes in the social basis of the party vote between the two parliamentary elections have been explained, together with voting patterns, in terms of the influence of party programmes, campaign effects and the influence of charisma or clientelism. Information on turnout suggests that Russia remains a country where the poorer and more excluded sections of society are drawn into electoral participation in relatively great proportions. The general volatility in voting behaviour weakens the prospects for democratic consolidation and strengthens the drift to semi‐authoritarian government.

Electoral Volatility in New Democracies and Democratic Consolidation

Abstract: Democratic consolidation is the most important task to be accomplished by countries newly democratized over the last two decades. However, most new democracies with only a few exceptions have difficulties to various degrees in consolidating democracy. The primary aim of this paper is to get a clearer idea of the difficulties which new democracies are now facing by examining patterns and contributing factors of electoral volatility in four new democracies, that is, three East European countries (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland) and one East Asian country (South Korea). The level of electoral volatility in terms of vote and seat share in these countries is extremely high. Regarding future prospects for democratic consolidation, however, a more important conclusion is that each country has a quite different combination of factors contributing to electoral volatility, implying that prospects for democratic consolidation might also differ, depending on these characteristics.

Party Loyalty and Electoral Volatility: A Comment on the Study of the Canadian Party System

I should like to comment on the fine article, “Party Loyalty and Electoral Volatility: A Study of the Canadian Party System,” by Paul M. Sniderman, H.D. Forbes, and Ian Melzer in the June 1974 (vii, no. 2) issue of this journal. This article should be a major corrective in the study of Canadian political parties. In addition, the authors provide a number of useful insights which should fruitfully guide future research on parties.In the beginning of their article they point out that there is a “consensus among students of Canadian politics on the functions of parties and the nature of voting in Canada,” which consensus they call “the textbook theory of party politics.” Among the elements of this theory, according to the authors, is the interpretation that both major, old-line Canadian parties, the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, are brokerage parties, and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Although the authors present evidence that calls into serious question other aspects of the “textbook theory,” such as the supposed lack of validity of the concept of party identification in Canada and the purported high level of electoral volatility of the Canadian voter compared to the British and American voter, the authors at the end of their article still accept important elements of the “textbook theory.” Thus, on page 286 they incorporate into their conclusion the idea that “it is surely true… that the major parties advance very similar platforms and share the same overall economic ideology.”