Level Of Unemployment Rate Research Articles

Unemployment resistance across EU regions: the role of technological and human capital

We investigate the unemployment impact of the 2008 crisis to study the relationship between economic and technological resilience in 248 European Union regions. For economic resilience we measure the difference between the level of unemployment rate before crisis and the level of unemployment rate at its peak after the crisis — i.e. the unemployment resistance. Using European Patent Office patents, we look at all technological crises in each region since 1978 and build a variable of technological resilience measuring the historical ability of a region to maintain its level of knowledge creation in the face of adverse shocks — i.e. the technological resistance. We find that technological resistance is a good predictor of unemployment resistance. In particular, our results show that (1) important interaction effects exist between technological resistance and human capital, (2) technological resistance and the level of human capital are less effective in protecting female and elder adult workers during an economic crisis and (3) important country level effects are present.

UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: DOES OKUN’S LAW MATTERS?

The situation in Nigeria is rapid population growth with high level of unemployment rate. The theoretical proposition of the Okun’s law suggests an indirect relationship existing between unemployment and output growth. This study tests the validity of Okun’s law by examining the impact of youth employment generation on sustainable growth in the Nigerian economy. We modeled real gross domestic product against unemployment rate, population growth, labour and government expenditure between 1986 and 2017. The empirical findings show that there is short- and long- run relationship existing between unemployment rate, population growth and output growth in Nigeria. Hence, study recommends that the activities by the government in promoting economic growth in the country should be geared towards promoting employment for the people in other sector.

Unemployment and Output Growth: Evidence from Upper-Middle-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Several studies have found a negative relationship between unemployment rate and output growth rate. But such has not been ascertained concerning upper middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Hence this paper examined this relationship using Panel Least Squares and Ordinary Least Squares estimation techniques based on annual series data from 1991 to 2017. The paper observed that the average output growth rate for upper middle-income countries in SSA in the period of the study was 6.36% while that of the unemployment average rate was 15.87%. The results of the panel Least Squares estimation reveals the existence of negative relationships between unemployment rate and output growth rate. In the country specific study, results from Botswana, Gabon, Mauritius and South Africa shows a positive relationship between unemployment and output growth rates revealing a case of non-inclusive growth. However, Equatorial Guinea and Namibia data on unemployment and output growth had negative relationships. The counter factual analyses conducted on the unemployment variable in term of some percentage reduction indicated that as more persons are employed there will be an increase in output growth. The findings, therefore suggests that the government should create more jobs based on labour intensive industries in upper middle-income countries in SSA, that the ratio of output growth needed to maintain stable level of unemployment rate could be sustained when there are boost in economic activities. Countries in upper middle-income in SSA that exhibited positive relationship between unemployment rate and output growth rate should concentrate more on how to increase the level of output growth rate through the boost in economic activities. Governments of these upper middle-income countries should have good policy mix focused on the reduction of unemployment at all levels.

Unemployment gender inequality: evidence from the 27 European Union countries

Gender inequality is persistent in the labor market despite equality between genders being one of the fundamental principles of the EU law. This is a reason why we have decided to analyze gender inequality in unemployment rates of the 27 European Union countries. Unemployment gender inequality differs across EU countries. There are countries where gender gap is persistent, but there are also countries where gender gap changed during the observed period of 2005Q1–2017Q2. Moreover, in some countries gender inequality decreased, while in others it was steady. Unemployment rates differ across countries similarly as unemployment gender inequality does, therefore, by choosing these countries, we have obtained a portfolio of distinct behaviors throughout the time. We have also obtained the relations between them. We test the hypothesis of the hysteresis to check the relation between the unemployment gender inequality and the unemployment rate levels, gender disadvantaged through unemployment gender inequality and the unemployment rate levels. This hypothesis was tested for both univariate and panel data country series. We could not reject the hypothesis of the hysteresis in univariate country series using a battery of GLS unit root tests proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ Theory 25:1754–1792, 2009). However, ILT test of Im et al. (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 67:393–419, 2005) rejected the hypothesis of the hysteresis for panel data of the European Union countries. Finally, the relationship between unemployment gender inequality and disadvantaged gender in inequality depends on the country analyzed. This result suggests that further analysis is needed to identify what causes unemployment gender inequality and what should be done to decrease it.

Designing stress scenarios for portfolios

Evaluating portfolio performance under different stress scenarios is an important risk management tool. Designing stress scenarios for portfolios can be complex as it involves determining potential market changes in different asset classes and risk factors in a coherent manner that are extreme but plausible. This paper describes an approach to design such stress scenarios where the portfolio performance depends on market changes in many risk factors and asset classes. The scenario design is customized for the portfolio and helps describe plausible market changes that would have the most adverse impact on the portfolio performance. The approach relies on historical data and derives the scenario based on market changes during historical periods that would have been the most stressful for the given portfolio. The proposed approach also allows one to adjust the level of severity and if desired incorporate any specific market conditions of concern (such as scenario design for increasing interest rate environment and/or certain level of unemployment rate, etc.). The main advantages of the proposed approach are (a) flexibility in scenario design with and without constraints on market conditions with adjustable levels of severities, (b) computational simplicity, (c) scalability to any number of market risk factors, (d) no need of prior assumptions on joint distribution of market risk factors, and (e) transparency of the results as they are developed from market changes during actual stressful historical periods.

The impact of economic globalisation on unemployment: The Malaysian experience

ABSTRACTMalaysia plans to emerge as one of the high-income economies by 2020 through the Economic Transformation Programme. A key component of this programme is to adopt more trade liberalisation policies that can generate a variety of economic activities, particularly more jobs. Although the integration with the world market bears the promise of prosperity for the developing and transitional economies, such integration may also adversely affect such economies. Preceding studies regarding labour market and international trade policies are still inconclusive and raise questions that require further examination; particularly in terms of whether exposure to the external sector can create or destroy jobs. The present study evaluates how Malaysia labour market has responded to the economic globalisation of the country. The study focuses on the long-run impact of economic globalisation on unemployment within the period between 1980 and 2014. The study uses autoregressive distributive lags method to examine the pattern of the relationship. The results show that economic globalisation have significant and positive impact on reducing unemployment in Malaysia in the long run. These findings indicate that policy-makers in Malaysia should facilitate the economy globalisation to maintain the current low level of unemployment rate.

Statistical modeling for unemployment rate using smoothing spline in semiparametric multivariable regression model with Bayesian approach

Unemployment is a labor problem facing many countries. High or low levels of unemployment rate can be influenced by many factors, including level of education, investment, economic growth, population density, regional minimum wage, and the number of large and medium industries. It is extremely difficult to estimate the unemployment rate as it is not linearly affected by all the factors. But a semiparametric multivariable regression can be well applied for modeling the unemployment rate. Semiparametric multivariable regression includes regression models which combine parametric and nonparametric models. The nonparametric components can be approached by smoothing spline function. In this paper, the smoothing spline function to semiparametric multivariable regression with Bayesian approach for the unemployment rate is developed. Generalized Maximum Likelihood (GML) method was simultaneously executed to obtain the optimal smoothing spline parameters. By using the method, we found that the unemployment rate model in East Java province (Indonesia) in 2011 possess good performances with mean square error close to zero.

Unemployment and labour force market in Republic of Kosova

Labour market in general and specifically the unemployment represents one of the most important and debatable issues in every world economy. Unemployment along GDP, presents the main indicator of the level of utilizing capacity and economic development of a country. If the unemployment rate is increasing in a country, it shows that this country is economically stalled and is not being able to utilize available production capacities in its best possible way, hence, causing decrease the standard of living of the population. Unemployment phenomenon is closely corelated with GDP. If production decreases, it will have an chain impact in several other indicators, starting from increase of unemployment, decrease of level of income, decrease of consumption, and as a consequence the re-decline of production. Therefore economic policy makers all over the world have one of their main goals to keep the unemployment rate level within the lowest possible limits, because this is the one of leading indicators of their successfull or not sucssesfull socio-economic policies. The very high rate of unemployment in Republic of Kosova presents one of main challenges that Country faces for a long time. The purpose of this research is to analyze the situation of labour force in Kosova, and come up with conclusions and recommendations regarding the creation of genuine economic policy which would cause the reduction of unemployment rate in country.

The Global and Local in Phillips Curve

The debate over the Phillips Curve - as the relation between level of unemployment rate and inflation rate - in historical economics is shortly reviewed. By using the analysis in the Extreme Value Theory, i.e.: the rank order statistics the unemployment and inflation data over countries from various regions are observed. The calculations brought us to conjecture that there exists the general pattern that could lead from the relation between unemployment and inflation rate. However, the difference patterns as observed in the Phillips Curve might could be reflected from the range of values of the local variables of the incorporated model.

Nonlinear Phillips curve, NAIRU and monetary policy rules

The US Phillips curve is modeled with a logistic smooth transition autoregression specification that allows various nonlinear shapes. Using this, the paper derives model-consistent estimates of the NAIRU. The NAIRU is defined as the level of unemployment rate that would correspond to a forecast of no inflation changes over the policy horizon. This paper also investigates the implications of nonlinearities in the Phillips curve for deriving optimal monetary policy rules. The optimal policy rule for interest rates and implied sacrifice ratios are found to be nonlinear as well.

Time series dynamics of US State unemployment rates

This paper examines the time series properties of state and national unemployment rates. Based upon unit root, variance ratio, and cointegration tests, as well as Granger-causality and error-correction model results, several important conclusions can be made. First, forecasting models that include only levels of unemployment rates may produce spurious regression results. Second, in the vast majority of cases, there is no long run co-movement between the aggregate US unemployment rate and individual state unemployment rates. Third, models that are specified in first-differences generally yield reliable insights into state-national unemployment relationships.