Levels Of Turnout Research Articles

Impact of electoral volatility and party replacement on voter turnout levels

While elections are viewed as the lynchpin of modern democracies, few works have adequately assessed the role played by political parties in mobilizing voters. Much of the extant work has relied on the number of parties in a party system to estimate the impact on voter turnout; not surprisingly, the voluminous literature on voter turnout has arrived at a theoretical impasse regarding the relationship between party systems and voter turnout. We argue that in order to better understand the relationship between party systems and voter turnout, researchers should consider other relevant party system measures. In particular, several scholars have surmised that party system stability holds numerous implications for democracies, but there has yet to be an empirical analysis of this claim. In this study, we anticipate that lower volatility and replacement rates – both indicating more stable party systems – should have a positive impact on aggregate turnout. Even when including several control variables, the results of our cross-sectional time-series analyses confirm our hypotheses.

Where Do Distrusting Voters Turn if There is No Viable Exit or Voice Option? The Impact of Political Trust on Electoral Behaviour in the Belgian Regional Elections of June 2009

AbstractIt has been suggested that political distrust is associated with lower levels of voter turnout and increased votes for challenger or populist parties. We investigate the relationship between political (dis)trust and electoral behaviour using the 2009 Belgian Election Study. Belgium presents an interesting case because compulsory voting (with an accompanying turnout rate of 90.4 per cent) compels distrusting voters to participate in elections. Nevertheless, distrusting voters are significantly more inclined to cast a blank or invalid vote. Second, distrust is positively associated with a preference for extreme right (Vlaams Belang) and populist (Lijst Dedecker) parties. Third, in party systems where there is no supply of viable challengers (i.e. the French-speaking region of Belgium), the effect of political trust on party preference is limited. We conclude that electoral effects of political distrust are determined by the electoral and party system and the supply of electoral protest.

Impact of Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) on Voter Turnout and Their Potential Use for Civic Education

AbstractA low level of voter turnout and a certain alienation of citizens from politics are well‐known challenges to many modern democracies. At the same time a special type of political website called Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) attracts millions of voters all over Europe. They offer voters a new approach for choosing candidates or political parties to vote for. VAAs seem to be particularly popular among young voters. In this article we try to assess whether these tools have the potential to increase voter turnout and whether they could be used to improve civic educational programs. We do this based on data from Switzerland and the Swiss VAA smartvote.

Learning in Elections and Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in game theoretic models of voting has typically been difficult to predict because of the problem of multiple Nash equilibria (Palfrey and Rosenthal 1983, 1985). Many of these equilibria require an extreme precision of beliefs among voters that is unlikely to be reached in real elections. At the same time, mechanisms like pre-election polls exist to shape the beliefs of voters about expected turnout. We combine these two features in a model of voter learning in elections and characterize the asymptotically stable equilibria of both complete and incomplete information games in a simple symmetric setting with two candidates. We also show how the model can be used to qualitatively explain several phenomena observed in reality: increases in costs of voting affect turnout adversely but there may be persistence of turnout levels between elections even though costs and other parameters change. Increase in uncertainty increases turnout while increases in the size of the electorate decrease it, in line with intuition.

Race and Turnout: Does Descriptive Representation in State Legislatures Increase Minority Voting?

The 2008 election marked an end to the longstanding gap in the level of black and white voter turnout, offering further evidence that minority empowerment affects voter turnout. In this article, the authors move beyond a dyadic conceptualization of empowerment and argue that the level of descriptive representation within the legislative body as a whole is crucial to understanding how context affects voter turnout. They find African Americans and Latinos are more likely to vote when residing in states with increased descriptive representation in the state legislature measured by the percentage of black or Latino lawmakers.

The personal vote and voter turnout

The level of electoral turnout is arguably the most widely monitored form of electoral participation. Consequently, electoral systems have often been cited as having a significant effect on turnout levels even though scholars do not agree on the effects of these complex institutions. Since most previous studies have relied on categorical or dichotomous electoral system indicators, this study utilizes Carey and Shugart’s personal vote index to gain theoretical leverage on other electoral system components. In short, I find that where electoral competition is predicated on party, rather than candidates’, reputations, turnout levels rise. The results of a time-series cross-sectional analysis reveal that the personal vote index significantly influences turnout levels even when controlling for a host of other factors.

Government Inequality Reduction in Comparative Perspective: A Cross-National Study of the Developed World

This article offers an empirical assessment of a number of aspects of the reduction of market income inequality as a result of government taxes and transfers, and of the distributive effect of wage-bargaining institutions and minimum wages, in thirteen developed countries over the last twenty five years. It considers five broad themes in the literature: the median voter approach, which argues that government redistribution is associated with inequality of pre-government income; the power resources approach, which emphasizes partisan political contestation and electoral participation; the institutional approach, which focuses on political institutions such as the electoral system; the labor organization approach, which argues that labor unions play a key role in government efforts to achieve a more egalitarian distribution of market income; and the economic globalization approach, which argues that integration into the global economy has undermined public social protection efforts. The article finds consistent positive relationships between direct government redistribution and four variables: the extent of pre-government inequality; the level of electoral turnout; the share of the labor force that is unionized; and the presence of proportional representation electoral systems. As to wage-bargaining institutions, the article confirms that there is a positive relationship between the degree of coordination of wage bargaining and a relatively egalitarian distribution of earnings across various income groups, and (more weakly) between the level of statutory minimum wages in a country and the earnings share of the lowest-income group.

Constraints on the turnout gap between high and low knowledge (or income) voters: Combining the Duncan-Davis method of bounds with the Taagepera method of bounds

Countries differ quite substantially in mean turnout levels, and it is equally well known that there may be substantial within-country variation as well, for example, between high income and low-income groupings or between high political knowledge and low political knowledge groupings. It has been hypothesized that the size of such between-group gaps will fall as turnout rises, and conversely ( Franklin, 2004. Blais, 2000). However, as Franklin (2004) also noted, there are mathematical constraints on the size of the turnout gap that are related to the level of turnout. For example, in the limit, if turnout is 100%, then all groups must have identical turnout. Here we build on this insight by adapting the classic work on boundary conditions done by two sociologists ( Duncan and Davis, 1953) to show precisely what the boundary constraints look like over the entire range of turnout values. Then we show how these constraints can help make sense of the strong relationship found between overall turnout and the size of the gap between voters above and below the median in political knowledge in the Fisher et al. (2008) cross-national study. To do so we draw on ideas in Rein Taagepera (2007, 2008) about how to use boundary condition information to develop better theoretical models.

Union Influence on Voter Turnout: Results from Three Los Angeles County Elections

Using voting records of several thousand people in South Los Angeles over three local elections in 2003 and 2004, the author examines the effects of political mobilization contacts by the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor on voter turnout. Many view Los Angeles as a key example of U.S. labor movement revitalization and regard the County Federation's political acumen paramount to the local labor movement's success. Using logistic regressions, the author measures changes in voter propensity based on union contact for each election. He finds that all types of union contacts (including personal visits and live phone calls) significantly affect the turnout levels of voters, particularly Latinos.

A comparative analysis of voter turnout in regional elections

Elections to regional assemblies have become increasingly important as the power and responsibilities of regional governments have increased. Yet, few studies have attempted to explain the considerable variation in turnout in regional elections from one region to another. This article conducts a cross-sectional examination of voter participation in regional elections across nine multi-level OECD states between 2003 and 2006. It contends that standard models of voter turnout in national elections are insufficient to explain variation in turnout in regional elections and argues for the use of independent variables tailored to capture variation across regional communities and regional political institutions. Our findings suggest that variations in the strength of political autonomy and the strength of attachment to the region among the electorate have a strong and positive impact on the level of turnout in regional elections.

Recent Books in the Field of Public Opinion Research

Declining voter turnout at elections is a problem in many democracies. Is transition to a system with mandatory voting a solution for this problem? In about a quarter of all democracies, citizens are legally obligated to participate in elections. In this book, Sara Birch examines the history of the institution of compulsory voting, the normative, and empirical arguments for and against it and the influence it has on a range of political phenomena. The author seeks to determine how compulsory electoral participation affects a number of elements of the electoral cycle, such as electoral campaigns, turnout levels, electoral integrity, and the overall legitimacy of the political system. Hypotheses and normative claims are empirically tested using individual level as well as aggregate level data from many countries and elections studies. In the...

Electoral behaviour behind the gates: partisanship and political participation among Canadian gated community residents

Gated communities have been characterised as representing processes of ‘forting up’ and ‘civic secession’, in which their residents use gating as a strategy for withdrawing from political life and from taking collective responsibility for others. The assumption is that the residents of private gated communities should be less likely to participate in political life, and/or be more likely to support political parties on the right who advocate privatisation, reduced government expenditures and lower taxes. If the act of living in a gated community is associated with either greater support for parties and policies on the right of the political spectrum, or limited political participation, then the growth of such forms of privatised communities has potential implications for the future of urban politics and even for national political systems. However, despite surveys that have dealt with social attitudes ‘behind the gates’, insufficient attention has been paid to the politics of gated community residents. This paper fills this gap through a comparative analysis of electoral behaviour during the 2006 federal election at the level of the polling station. Electoral participation and partisanship in 27 gated communities in three Canadian metropolitan areas is compared against that of non‐gated residents. Regression analysis is conducted in order to determine whether gated community residents differ from their non‐gated counterparts in the way they vote and their levels of electoral turnout, after controlling for social composition. The potential implications of this research are then discussed.

Voting Behaviour in the 2009 South African Election

This article analyses voting behaviour in the South African election of 2009 and draws conclusions regarding the significance of party affiliation and issue-based voting in South Africa. It demonstrates the low level of voter registration and voter turnout. In the 2009 election the Independent Electoral Commission had problems with electoral management for the first time; however, it was able to prevent electoral violence. During the campaign the newly founded COPE focused on institutional reforms and the oppositional Democratic Alliance concentrated too much on negative campaigning. In the post-Mbeki era, the ANC has been able to reinvent itself by being the only party with a strong focus on pro-poor policies. Nevertheless, the lack of alternatives in electoral democracies may lead to alternative instruments of political action.

A Comparative Analysis of Political Communication Systems and Voter Turnout

This article explores how political communication institutions affect cross‐national differences in voter turnout in democratic elections. It demonstrates how the structure and means of conveying political messages—gauged by media systems, access to paid political television advertising, and campaign finance laws—explain variations in turnout across 74 countries. Relying on a “mobilization” perspective, I argue that institutional settings that reduce information costs for voters will increase turnout. The major empirical findings are twofold. First, campaign finance systems that allow more money (and electioneering communication) to enter election campaigns are associated with higher levels of voter turnout. Second, broadcasting systems and access to paid political television advertising explain cross‐national variation in turnout, but their effects are more complex than initially expected. While public broadcasting clearly promotes higher levels of turnout, it also modifies the effect of paid advertising access on turnout.

A fully general index of political competition

As Selb [A deeper look at the proportionality-turnout nexus. Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming] observes, the standard measure of (posterior) competitiveness in elections used in plurality contests, namely the difference between the winner and the second place finisher, has no “self-evident counterpart in multi-member PR districts”. Following lines similar to Taagepera and Grofman [2003. Mapping the indices of seats–votes disproportionality and inter-election volatility. Party Politics 9, 659–677] we identify six properties that any index of competition should satisfy and then offer a new measure that satisfies all six properties which is applicable to virtually any electoral rule. We then apply our new and more fully general index of political competition to data from PR elections in Switzerland to see the extent to which the index of competition is correlated with levels of voter turnout.

Analysis of the turnout effects of vote by mail elections, 1980–2007

Proponents of vote by mail elections often argue that this type of election facilitates participation such that elevated levels of turnout occur. The research tests this assumption by analyzing 44 statewide elections (1980–2007) in the state of Oregon—the only state that conducts all of its elections by mail. The results of this analysis suggest that the vote by mail format is a major stimulus to voter participation in special elections in Oregon, while its effect on turnout in primary and general elections is positive, but fairly minimal.

TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION EFFECTS OF MOTOR VOTER LEGISLATION IN THE 1994 MIDTERM ELECTIONS

In this paper we examine the election registration and turnout effects of state level laws that resemble the National Voter Registration Act (also known as Motor Voter) in the 1994 Congressional elections. In 1994 there were 10 states and the District of Columbia with effective motor voter laws in statute. A multivariate analysis is applied to compare turnout differences, partisan distinctions, and registration levels in motor voter and non-motor voter states. We find that in motor voter states rates of voter registration and turnout are significantly higher. However, we find no statistical evidence that motor voter legislation leads to a partisan advantage for either of the two major parties.

The Serbian Radical Party in the 2004 Local Elections

This study examines the factors that contributed to the success of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) during Serbia's September 2004 local elections. Understanding the factors behind the SRS's success is important, both for the future of local government in an increasingly decentralized Serbia, and for electoral politics at the national level. Through quantitative analyses of election results across 160 localities and drawing from evidence gathered from interviews, media reports, and various analytical sources, the study demonstrates that a combination of new electoral laws, turnout levels, proportions of refugees and minorities, economic factors, and divisions amongst democratic bloc parties all contributed to variation in SRS success across Serbia's localities.

The Birth of a Bipolar Party System or a Referendum on a Polarizing Government? The October 2007 Polish Parliamentary Election

The 2007 Polish parliamentary election is best understood as a plebiscite on the polarizing government led by the right-wing Law and Justice party and its controversial ‘Fourth Republic’ political project. The liberal-conservative Civic Platform opposition won because it was able to persuade Poles that voting for them was the most effective way of removing this government from office. The election also indicates that the ‘post-communist divide’ that dominated and provided structural order to the Polish political scene during the 1990s is passing into history and certainly means a more consolidated Polish party system. However, Poland still has very high levels of electoral volatility and low electoral turnout, together with low levels of party institutionalization and extremely weak links between parties and their supporters. This means that it is too early to say whether the election also marks the emergence of a stable Polish party system based on a new bipolar divide between two big centre-right groupings with the confinement of the left to the status of a minor actor.

Turnout around the globe: The influence of electoral institutions on national voter participation, 1972–2000

Democratic theory suggests that a nation's electoral system should influence the level of voter turnout. However, the empirical evidence for this relationship is mixed. These weak findings are partially due to insufficient attention to measurement and sampling issues. Concerning measurement, many studies examine the percent of registered citizens that turn out to vote, a measure that unnecessarily distorts the effect of electoral system. Concerning samples, electoral systems will have a larger impact on turnout in more fully democratic countries, given that the vote itself is more meaningful in a full democracy. Taking into account these distinctions, electoral systems in fact have a strongly significant effect on turnout in fully democratic countries, while having relatively little effect in partially democratic countries.