Executive turnover influences agency performance, policy implementation, and ultimately the success of legislative delegations. We argue that turnover intention is a function of labor market opportunities—specifically, outside employment opportunities and the acquisition of nontransferable, agency-specific human capital—as well as perceptions about the way in which political decisions have affected federal executive influence over policymaking. Statistical evidence for these claims is provided using data from the 2007–2008 Survey on the Future of Government Service, the largest ever survey of US federal executives. Agency-specific human capital drives down turnover intention in our estimates. The availability of outside options has the opposite effect except in cases where the executive has invested a lot in agency-specific human capital. Turnover intention increases when an agency’s senior executives have little influence over policy. We draw out the implications of these findings for our understanding of federal labor markets, the construction of civil service systems, and the politicization of executive branch agencies. 《政策影响力、公务员专业知识、以及联邦政府高级主管的流失问题》 作者:安东尼M. 贝尔泰利, 大卫E. 刘易斯 政府部门高级主管 (executives) 的流失 (turnover) 不利于维持部门绩效和公共政策执行的效果,从而最终影响立法授权 (legislative delegations) 的有效性。 我们于2007 到2008 年间进行了题为《公共服务之未来》的问卷调研。 这是迄今为止针对美国联邦政府高级主管人员的最大规模的问卷调研。这一问卷调研表明,政府部门以外的就业机会、政府高级官员的专业知识 、以及他们对自己在政策制定和执行过程中影响力的自我评估都会影响其离职意向。 我们的问卷研究表明, 政府机构的专业人力资本(human capital) 有助于减少部门主管的离职意向;而政府部门以外的就业机会则会强化政府部门主管的离职倾向。我们的研究还表明,如果政府部门高级主管在政策制定过程中的影响力微乎其微, 他们也比较容易离职。在本文末, 我们探讨了此项研究对于理解联邦政府就业市场、公务员制度、以及联邦行政部门政治化的重要意义。