Legal Economy Research Articles

MONEY LAUNDERING DETECTION METHODS IN THE MODERN FIGHT AGAINST CRIME ORGANIZED AND FINANCIAL CORRUPTION

The detection of money laundering is an essential aspect in the modern fight against organized crime and financial corruption. Money laundering is a procedure used by criminals to disguise the legal source of ill-gotten gains and integrate them into the legal economy. In this essay, we will explore the meaning and methodology of money laundering detection. The initial purpose of the money laundering detection methodology is to identify and track suspicious financial transactions and activities of individuals and legal entities. Various techniques and tools are used for this, including financial monitoring of transactions, analysis of financial documents and investigation of ownership and assets. One of the most important aspects of the methodology for detecting money laundering is the analysis of financial transactions. Criminal investigators investigate all transactions of suspicious persons and organizations, to identify transactions that occur in the context of money laundering. Investigating ownership and assets is another critical part of the money laundering detection methodology. This includes checks on the properties and assets of suspicious individuals and organizations. Investigators look into property, patents, company ownership and other assets to prove the links between them and the origin of the money. In conclusion, the methodology for detecting money laundering is complex and very important in the fight against organized crime and financial corruption. Using the analysis of financial transactions, financial reports and documents, as well as the investigation of ownership and assets, criminals try to identify and prosecute money launderers and organizations. Using modern technology and international cooperation, the effectiveness of the methodology can be improved and more serious obstacles can be created for criminals trying to use it to hide illegal capital.

СТОХАСТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ОПТИМАЛЬНИХ ЗВ’ЯЗКІВ МІЖ ТІНЬОВОЮ ТА ЛЕГАЛЬНОЮ ЕКОНОМІКАМИ

The article is devoted to the stochastic modelling of optimal links between the shadow and legal economies using Wiener and Poisson processes. The study focuses on identifying the best management strategies that will help reduce the size of the shadow economy. The paper first considers a deterministic economic and mathematical model of the relationship between the shadow and legal economies, which is presented in the form of differential equations with initial conditions. These differential equations describe the rate of change of real sector workers' savings, the dynamics of owners' savings, the rate of change of the price of aggregate output, etc. The assumptions about the dynamics of cash savings and the price of aggregate output are supplemented by initial conditions. Restrictions on the consumer shares of savings used for consumption of legal and shadow products for employees and entrepreneurs are formed. To build an optimal process, the author formalizes an objective function (objective criterion) that maximizes the average total (integral) savings of employees and entrepreneurs over a certain period of time and uses stochastic sufficient conditions for optimality, where the controls are the shares of savings used to purchase aggregate products of the legal and shadow economies of employees and business owners, and the phase trajectories are the monetary savings of employees and business owners of legal and shadow economies, the price of a unit of aggregate products, and the price of a unit of aggregate products. Thus, the main idea of the process of solving the optimal management problem takes into account both the management process itself (strategies, management methods) and the paths along which the system moves from the initial state to the final result (phase trajectories). The structure of the optimal process of the proposed stochastic model is described. It is established that the optimal controls are deterministic values and do not depend on the coefficients of the Wiener processes in the proposed stochastic dynamic model. It is also worth noting that the specific formulation of this problem of optimal control of the interaction between the shadow and legal economies depends on the context of the study and may vary depending on the tasks and assumptions set.

Dynamics and trends of drug dealing: a local labour system perspective

This study provides a dynamic analysis of illegal drug trafficking in the Italian region of Sardinia, using the Local Labour Systems (LLS, ISTAT) framework. Data from major regional newspapers (January 2017 - De-cember 2022) were validated through institutional reports. A multivariate biplot analysis reveals an increase in drug seizures and the Island's role as a hub for national and international drug trade, facilitated by local and traditional mafia organizations. Related crimes are also infiltrating the le-gal economy, particularly in the coastal real estate market. This study high-lights the urgent need for targeted institutional and community strategies to protect younger people, who are increasingly involved in trafficking.

On the Issue of the Sectoral Nature of the Employment Contract (In Memory of Professor V.M. Lebedev)

The relevance of the study is due to the need to implement independent legal regulation of social and labor relations by the norms of labor law, taking into account the modern paradigm of labor law, in particular the features of the technological process in specific organizations. The independence of the employment contract and labor law is affirmed. It is noted that the inclusion of an employment contract among civil contracts does not contribute to the development of industrial relations and does not correspond to the rights and interests of workers. It is noted that the regulation of labor relations by sources of civil legislation cannot take into account either the specifics of the activities of certain organizations, or the rights and interests of individual workers. It is concluded that the employment contract can be considered a unique source of labor law, since it is valid only in the relationship between the employee and the employer. It is noted that the relationship between an employee and an employer is not a relationship between two legally equal entities, the obligation of one of which is the obligation to make efforts (the obligation to work, following the instructions of the employer), and the obligation of the second is to pay money for the efforts made. This is not a private law relationship. It involves the power and subordination that characterize public relations. It is indicated that labor legislation does not properly regulate issues of the conditions for the validity of labor transactions and the legal consequences of their invalidity. Attention is drawn to the fact that the discussion itself about the sectoral affiliation of the employment contract should, first of all, have practical significance. It is argued that the need for subsidiary application of civil law to labor relations does not determine the absorption of labor law by civil law. This only presents the mechanism of “legal economy” that the legislator uses.

CORRUPTION MANIFESTATIONS IN THE SYSTEM OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ECONOMIC ENTITIES

The article establishes the impact of corruption on the economic and national security of the country, what dangers and threats it poses to economic entities. The role of corrupt practices in the economic activity of economic entities was considered. The approaches of scientists to the understanding of the concept of "economic security" were studied and the author's interpretation of it was proposed. Thus, economic security is proposed to understand the state of protection of economic interests of individuals, society and the state from internal and external threats, which contributes to economic development. The most negative consequences of the impact of corruption on the economy, creating a threat to the economic and national security of the country, have been disclosed. These include the expansion of the shadow economy, violation of market competitiveness, inefficient use of budget funds, higher prices for products as a result of "corruption costs", deterioration of the investment climate, increased corruption in non-governmental organizations, the merger of crime and the legal economy, lack of effective private owners, declining confidence in the state, etc. It is also noted that corruption has a positive impact on the economy and political development of the country. The dynamics of the Corruption Perception Index, corruption manifestations are analyzed. The causes of obstacles to foreign investment in the economy of Ukraine, the severity of different types of corruption and the level of corruption in different areas of public activity according to the results of a survey of the population and businessmen, conducted by the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption in 2021, were studied. It is noted that Ukraine is doing a lot on the way to overcome corruption, but its efforts do not achieve the desired success because of the habituation to corruptive manifestations of the population. The impact of corruption on different spheres of social life and sectors of the economy, enterprises of different types and forms of ownership was characterized. It is noted that the main emphasis in combating corruption should be focused on the ways of determination, and the main determinants of corruption have been identified. The factors forming the demand for corrupt agreements and becoming threats to the economic security of economic entities have also been studied. The directions of prevention of corruption threats to the economic security of the country and entrepreneurship are proposed.

МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ОПТИМАЛЬНИХ ЗВ’ЯЗКІВ МІЖ ТІНЬОВОЮ ТА ЛЕГАЛЬНОЮ ЕКОНОМІКАМИ

This article is devoted to modelling the optimal links between the shadow and legal economies in order to understand their interaction and impact on the main patterns of changes in the savings of employees and business owners, and in the price of aggregate goods. The study focuses on finding optimal management strategies that will reduce the size of the shadow economy and improve the economic situation. The article uses the theory of optimal control to build a mathematical model of the interaction between the shadow and legal economies. A number of assumptions are taken into account for construction the mathematical model, in particular, firstly, the rate of change of savings of real sector employees is proportional to the difference between their total income, consisting of legal and shadow salaries, reduced by income taxes, and total expenditures (expenditures on consumption of legal and shadow products); secondly, the dynamics of owners' savings depends on the difference between their total income from the sale of legal and shadow products, reduced by the amount of relevant income taxes, and total expenditures on employee salaries, production needs and taxation in the legal and shadow sectors and thirdly, the rate of change in the price of legal and shadow products is proportional to the difference between total demand and total supply of these products on the market. The assumptions are added with initial conditions for the dynamics of cash savings and the price of the aggregate product, and restrictions are imposed on the consumer shares of savings used for consumption of legal and shadow products for employees and for business owners. The goal criterion is to maximise the average (integral) total welfare of employees and entrepreneurs over a certain period of time. Sufficient conditions of optimality were used for the study. The findings may be useful for economists, policy makers and researchers interested in the shadow economy and looking for effective ways to influence this sector. The results of the study can serve as a basis for the development of policies and recommendations aimed at reducing the shadow economy and stimulating legal economic activity.

Вплив тіньової економіки України на макроекономічні показники та економічну безпеку держави

The article examines the influence of the domestic shadow economy on the main macroeconomic indicators of the state's development, and offers proposals for reducing the volume and level of the shadow economy of Ukraine. It systematizes scientific approaches to the essence and factors of economic shadowing and economic security. The study examines the experience of international organizations aimed at combating money laundering. It is revealed that the shadow economy of the country, in the conditions of globalization, is one of the significant exogenous factors influencing the economic security of the state. Most European countries, including Ukraine, use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an indicator of the volume of national production and the economic well-being of society. The article highlights the dynamics of GDP and the level of the shadow sector of the economy as a percentage of Ukraine's GDP over the entire period of the country's independence. Obtaining clear, reliable, and well-founded data on the volumes of the shadow economy allows developing well-reasoned measures to strengthen the economic security of the state. The implementation of measures aimed at strengthening the economic security of the state is primarily based on the development and implementation of effective legislative acts to counteract the shadowing of the economy. These measures should provide a reduction in the tax burden, the creation of more favorable conditions for legal work, the establishment of a system to counteract the legalization of criminally obtained income, the implementation of effective financial control, and the creation of liberal conditions in the legal economy. To overcome the negative trends caused by a state of war, there is a need to develop an adequate mechanism to reduce the volumes and level of the domestic shadow economy. This mechanism should not only allow the country to quickly adapt to the modern changing environment but also contribute to the resolution of national security issues. Addressing this task necessitates the development of a set of practical recommendations for reducing absolute and relative levels of economic shadowing and, based on this, strengthening the country's economic security. In this regard, the authors have developed a multi-level model for reducing the volumes and level of the shadow economy by improving methodological approaches to the management of this process at the regional, national (state), intergovernmental, and global levels.

Legal Analysis of Cybercrime as An Illegal Behavior and Legal Economy

Legal Analysis of Cybercrime as An Illegal Behavior and Legal Economy

Methods of legalization (laundering) of property obtained by criminal means in cyberspace

The emergence and development of new financial and information technologies, the integration of national economic systems into the world economy, the expansion of economic ties both at the level of a separate state and at the supranational level significantly facilitate and even ensure the communication of criminals not only on the territory of a separate country, but also its limits. Technical innovations are undoubtedly changing the financial services industry, offering entirely new products aimed at making them easier to access, but new threats and vulnerabilities are emerging for the financial sector, such as cyber-attacks (internet fraud) or account manipulation.
 The relevance of the research topic is determined by the significant amount of criminal investments penetrating the legal economy, the commission of new criminal offenses, the use of new ways of committing criminal offenses in cyberspace, the involvement of an increasing number of people in criminal activities, the corruption of state officials, including those called fight crime. Money laundering harms the economic security and financial stability of Ukraine. The international nature of this type of criminal offenses complicates the detection and investigation of crimes, thereby creating a "financial basis" for criminal groups (organizations) to carry out illegal, including terrorist, activities.
 All efforts aimed at combating the legalization of proceeds of crime in cyberspace without creating an effective system to combat this phenomenon do not yield positive results. Therefore, combating the legalization of proceeds obtained through crime requires the study of the origin and ways of spreading this socially dangerous phenomenon, as well as proper legal protection, in accordance with international standards.

The Economic Effects of Mafia: Firm Level Evidence

We analyze the effects of Mafia infiltration in the legal economy. Combining information from investigative records with panel data on firms’ governance and balance sheets, we build an indicator of infiltration in firms located in an area with no tradition of Mafia. We show that Mafia targets young and less efficient firms and that infiltration generates a significant rise in firms’ revenues, with no proportionate growth in production inputs and a deterioration of the firm’s financial situation leading to market exit. These findings are consistent with a story of predatory behavior in which infiltration is used for money laundering or rent extraction. (JEL D22, G32, G34, K42, L25)

THE SHADOW ECONOMY’S PHENOMENON AND ITS IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CORPORATE BUSINESS AND HOUSEHOLDS IN UKRAINE

The shadow economy, along with macroeconomic imbalances and limited resources, will become a key global risk for the next decade. Withdrawing cash flows from the shadow sector and directing them to the legal economy solves numerous political, social, and economic problems of a country. That's why assessing the level of the shadow economy and solving problems of legalizing cashflows in any country has theoretical and practical significance. The purpose of this study is to assess the level of the shadow economy in Ukraine and to identify the problems, which give rise to it in the context of new challenges of the crisis phenomena both in Ukraine and around the world. The paper presents a comprehensive study of the shadow economy phenomenon, examines the root causes of its occurrence. The specificity of the study consists in assessing the level of the shadow economy in Ukraine according to the existing methods, namely: the unprofitableness of enterprises “household expenses – retail sales and services”, electrical and monetary. According to the review of scientific works, it is necessary to use a comprehensive indicator of the shadow economy assessment. Thus, considerable attention is paid to deepening the methodological aspects of assessing the shadow economy based on multi-criteria methods. The result of the study is the calculation of the shadow economy's level, considering the shadow currency turnover, based on the fact that Ukraine is a dollar-dependent country. A large proportion of the capital withdrawal into the shadow circulation is associated precisely with currency fraud. The obtained results confirm that the legalization of currency cash turnover should be mandatory in the process of foreign exchange regulation's transformation in Ukraine. Achieving this goal is associated with the deregulation of the foreign exchange market and the banking sector on the basis of moderate liberalization, warning the country's economy against the deployment of credit booms, improving the institutional provision of financial intermediation, developing a full-fledged market for derivatives, harmonizing national legislation with the best world experience and international standards of regulation, supervision and reporting, continuous monitoring of public opinion on the actions of monetary authorities and the consequences of these actions for the welfare and economic stability of corporate business and households.

The impact of digital transformation on changing legal nature of information in digital form

The article examines the legal nature of digital information in the context of the development of the digital economy and the digitalization of public life. The author draws attention to the fact that information in digital form forms the basis for the emergence of new objects involved in turnover. Turnover, taking into account the need to meet the various needs of the individual, exists both in fact – in everyday reality and in virtual space – through information systems. In modern circulation in everyday life and the electronic environment, information can be presented in various forms. It is noted that in the conditions of rapid development of information technologies, the right to access information becomes important, and the information carrier loses its previously known importance in legal relations. In the conditions of digitalization, the division of new turnover objects into two varieties is proposed. The first group consists of objects that exist in the usual real form, but acquire an electronic form. Transformation accelerates turnover and allows us to work out optimal ways to exercise rights to such objects. The second group is formed by objects that arise and exist in virtual space within the framework of information systems. The possibilities of using such objects are determined by the level of development of information technologies. It is impossible to predict the appearance of new objects of economic value in the digital economy, and the choice of legal economy tools is not always a suitable way of law-making. Special attention is paid to information as a basis for turnover objects in the context of the theory of absolute and relative rights. The attempt to establish the ownership of information and limited property rights is analyzed, and the conclusion is made about the problematic existence of such structures. At the same time, the author shows a change in the understanding and essential meaning of information as a category in the conditions of digital transformation. It is concluded that it is necessary to develop a concept of digital information regulation.

La Intervención de la Delincuencia Organizada en la Economía Legítima

El crimen organizado Lato sensu (incluido el crimen organizado “tradicional”, el terrorismo y el crimen económico organizado) interviene en la economía legal para obtener ganancias, protegerse a sí mismo, a sus miembros y sus activos de la acción de las autoridades y establecer relaciones, desde una perspectiva de intercambio de favores, con miembros del mundo de la política, las instituciones y la administración pública. En esta intervención, las organizaciones criminales utilizan su propia “metodología” (uso de violencia, intimidación y corrupción y violación sistemática de la ley). Para intervenir en la economía legal, las organizaciones criminales (directamente o a través de empresas) establecen relaciones con empresas legales. Dichas relaciones van desde la intimidación hasta el establecimiento de relaciones comerciales “normales”, en las que las empresas lícitas y la organización delictiva y/o las empresas de su propiedad o bajo su control actúan como socios comerciales, mediante la prestación de asistencia económica, por parte de las organizaciones criminales, para empresas en difícil situación económica.

Revealing “Mafia Inc.”? Financial Crisis, Organized Crime, and the Birth of New Enterprises

Abstract We study the investment of organized crime in the legal economy. By using the shock induced on the Italian credit market by the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, we document how provinces with a high organized crime presence have been affected less by the crisis in terms of the establishment of new enterprises than provinces with a lower criminal infiltration. We provide evidence that the lower impact of the crisis is consistent with the presence of investments by organized crime in the legal economy. We corroborate this interpretation by comparing our results with the characterization made by the judicial authority of such investments.

Hiding Filthy Lucre in Plain Sight:Theory and Identification of Business-Based Money Laundering

Proceeds from illicit activities percolate into the legal economy through several channels. We exploit international regulations targeting money laundering via the financial sector to identify the flows of “dirty money” into legitimate establishments: business-based money laundering (BBML). Our variant of the monopolistic competition model embeds a drug cartel that channels illicit proceeds into an offshore financial investment and into BBML. Tighter regulations in one channel increase the flow in the other. We use a research design that links U.S. county business activity to the evolution of anti-money-laundering regulations in Caribbean jurisdictions to provide the first empirical evidence of the phenomenon.

COUNTERACTING FORBIDDEN ADVERTISING OF ONLINE SALE OF DRUGS

In view of the increase in drug trafficking offences committed through the use of information and telecommunications technologies, the state must seek effective ways to reduce the drug market. Counteracting illegal advertising of drugs and their marketing addresses on the Internet (Darknet) is a promising area of prevention that has been underestimated to date. The purpose of the article is to determine the main directions of Russia’s criminal policy in the field of counteracting open and veiled advertising of online stores selling drugs in a non-contact manner. Methods of statistics, content analysis of Internet resources, systemic, formal-logical and legal analysis are used. Results: illegal advertising in the area of drug trafficking is an independent direction of professional criminal activity, using marketing techniques tested in the legal economy. The advertisement of online drug stores on urban infrastructure facilities, regular websites and social media helps to expand the reach of drug users. Efforts to combat illicit drug advertising, including the criminalization of such advertising, should be part of Russia’s criminal policy.

Impact of shadow economy and corruption on tax efficiency

Shadow economy exists in any economy, having a substantial impact on legal economy. It can be conducted separately, but most often it brings about significant consequences to the economic order. It is, therefore, very important to identify the relationships among factors fostering shadow economy. The universal roots of shadow economy are generally recognised, but there is still a considerable area left to be explored. Even though much attention is paid to taxes as the main cause of shadow economy, few investigations have been dedicated to tax effectiveness in terms of social budget expenditure versus total budget revenue. The aim of the study was to investigate the dependence between social budget spending and shadow economy performance. The MIMIC approach was employed to assess the level of shadow economy in selected OECD countries. Furthermore, the correlation between overall tax burdens and shadow economy was estimated. Moreover, the correlation between social spending and tax burdens was assessed. The correlation value between overall social budget expenditure and shadow economy was calculated to be high, at –0.6682. This means quite a strong negative correlation. The higher level of social spending reduces shadow economy performance. However, the correlation level between overall tax burdens and shadow economy is positive, reaching the level of 0.4458. There is a very strong positive correlation between overall tax burdens and social budget spending, estimated at 0.8984. Based upon the results, it can be concluded that close attention should be paid to tax effectiveness and its relationship with shadow economy performance.

Theoretical approaches to defining the shadow economy

Subject. This article explores the forms of the shadow economy. Objectives. The article aims to identify conceptual differences between approaches to defining the shadow economy notion. Methods. For the study, we used logical, comparative, and content analyses. Results. The article finds that the concept of the shadow economy includes both illegal activities, which contradict the spirit and letter of the law, and legal activities, through using illegal tools and methods to maximize profits or minimize costs. Conclusions. Social, legal, and economic factors determine the development of the shadow economy. Whether money comes back to the legal economy sector or not, it depends on the form of the shadow economy. To define the essence of the shadow economy, a comprehensive approach is required.

Exploring infiltration behaviour by organised crime groups

PurposeThis paper aims to provide a holistic view of infiltration behaviour by organised crime groups (OCGs), with a specific focus on the methods used to access the legal market, including factors that drive an organised crime group to pursue infiltration. The act of infiltration is examined as a business decision; therefore, factors such as the surrounding community, the availability of criminal opportunities and broader implications, are considered.Design/methodology/approachInitially, the concept of an organised crime group is explored by, where possible, identifying trends in behaviour and structure. The act of infiltration is dissected, including the infiltration behaviour of OCGs and their related decision-making processes.FindingsInfiltration actions are complex; therefore, any countervailing combatting and preventative actions will need to follow suit. OCGs pursue infiltration only when deemed feasible and to their benefit in furthering their illicit actions. Criminal opportunities are pursued across the entire economic sector. When these groups participate in a legal market, their criminality infects the healthy market and leaves it ill and contagious to the rest of the licit economy.Originality/valueInfiltration is organic, as it indicates growth or adjustment to changing market conditions. Criminal opportunities are widespread, and their creation is often unintentional–the legal economy casts a shadow. Combatting organised crime, entrenched in the lawful community, requires that the focus should be on the susceptibility of potential infiltration targets through the possible infiltration methods. Furthermore, a broader perspective is needed when considering the underlying motivation for infiltration–it may not only be to generate profit.

Banditry or business? Rebel labor markets and state economic intervention

ABSTRACT Stationary banditry is ubiquitous in civil war, with some rebel groups even investing in and profiting from primary commodities for years or decades. But for many of these groups, labor is a necessary component of resource production, such that laborers’ economic participation is vital for rebel funding and survival. States, meanwhile, are eager to prevent rebels from establishing these economic footholds. In areas where rebels can assert control of primary commodity markets, military competition between states and rebels may be supplemented by economic competition over laborers’ efforts. Under what conditions do governments wage local economic war by providing incentives to laborers to minimize the appeal of economically partnering with rebels? I argue that laborers’ economic loyalty is a central and under-considered component to resource-driven conflicts. When rebels seek to establish stationary banditry, states incentivize laborers to participate in the legal economy rather than rebel-controlled markets. Specifically, states will pursue economic counterinsurgency policies in areas where rebels are most likely to profit from labor-intensive primary commodities. I find support for this argument using municipal-level Colombian data about the FARC’s involvement in the coca trade and government provision of agricultural credits. El bandolerismo estacionario es omnipresente en la guerra civil, yalgunos grupos rebeldes incluso invierten en productos básicos yse benefician de ellos durante años odécadas. No obstante, para muchos de estos grupos, el trabajo es un componente necesario de la producción de recursos, de modo que la participación económica de los trabajadores es clave para la financiación yla supervivencia de los rebeldes. Por su parte, los Estados ansían impedir que los rebeldes establezcan este tipo de apoyo económico. En las zonas donde los rebeldes pueden imponer el control de los mercados de productos básicos, la competencia militar entre los Estados ylos rebeldes se puede complementar con la competencia económica por el esfuerzo de los trabajadores. ¿En qué condiciones los gobiernos desatan una guerra económica local al ofrecer incentivos alos trabajadores afin de minimizar el atractivo de asociarse anivel económico con los rebeldes? Sostengo que la lealtad económica de los trabajadores es un componente fundamental ypoco considerado en los conflictos relacionados con los recursos. Cuando los rebeldes pretenden imponer un bandolerismo estacionario, los Estados incentivan alos trabajadores aparticipar en la economía legal en lugar de en los mercados controlados por los rebeldes. En concreto, los Estados promulgarán políticas de contrainsurgencia económica en las zonas donde los rebeldes tienen más probabilidades de beneficiarse de los productos básicos que requieren mucha mano de obra. Respaldo este argumento mediante datos que compartió Colombia anivel municipal sobre la participación de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) en el comercio de coca yla provisión de créditos agrícolas por parte del gobierno. Le banditisme stationnaire est omniprésent dans les guerres civiles, certains groupes rebelles investissant dans et profitant même des produits primaires pendant des années ou des décennies. Mais pour nombre de ces groupes, la main-d’œuvre est une composante nécessaire à la production de ressources, et la participation économique des travailleurs est donc essentielle au financement et à la survie de ces rebelles. Dans le même temps, les États souhaitent ardemment empêcher les rebelles d’établir ces points d’ancrage économiques. Dans les zones où les rebelles peuvent affirmer leur contrôle sur les marchés des produits primaires, la concurrence militaire entre les États et les rebelles peut être complétée par une concurrence économique sur les efforts des travailleurs. Dans quelles conditions les gouvernements mènent-ils une guerre économique locale en offrant des incitations aux travailleurs pour minimizer l’attrait d’un partenariat économique avec les rebelles ? Je soutiens que la loyauté économique des travailleurs est une composante centrale et insuffisamment prise en considération dans les conflits reposant sur des ressources. Lorsque les rebelles cherchent à établir un banditisme stationnaire, les États incitent les travailleurs à participer à l’économie légale plutôt qu’aux marchés contrôlés par les rebelles. Plus précisément, les États mèneront des politiques économiques de contre-insurrection dans les zones où les rebelles sont les plus susceptibles de tirer profit des produits primaires exigeant beaucoup de main-d’œuvre. J’ai trouvé du soutien à cet argument en m’appuyant sur des données colombiennes au niveau municipal concernant l’implication des FARC dans le commerce de la coca et l’octroi de crédits agricoles par le gouvernement.