League Games Research Articles

Minimax on the Gridiron: Serial Correlation and Its Effects on Outcomes in the National Football League

We examine whether the predictions of minimax in zero-sum games holds under highly incentivized conditions with highly informed informed decision makers. We examine data from 3455 National Football League (NFL) games from the 2000 season through the 2012 season. We categorize every relevant play as either a rush or a pass. We find that, despite the predictions of minimax, the pass-rush mix exhibits negative serial correlation. In other words, given the conditions of the play, teams employ an exploitable strategy in that play types alternate more frequently than implied by an independent stochastic process. We also find that the efficacy of plays are affected by previous actions and previous outcomes in a manner that is not consistent with minimax. Our analysis suggests that teams could profit from more clustered play selections, which switch play type less frequently. Our results are consistent with the explanation that teams excessively switch play types in order to not be perceived as predictable.

Squad management, injury and match performance in a professional soccer team over a championship-winning season

Squad management, injury and physical, tactical and technical match performance were investigated in a professional soccer team across five consecutive league seasons (2008–2013, 190 league games) with specific focus on a championship-winning season (2010/11). For each player, match participation and time-loss injuries were recorded, the latter prospectively diagnosed by the team's physician. Defending and attacking tactical and technical performance indicators investigated included ball possession and possession in opponents' half, passes, forward passes, completed passes and forward passes, crosses and completed crosses, goal attempts and goal attempts on target, successful final third entries, free-kicks and 50/50 duels won/lost. Physical performance measures included total distance and distance covered at high-speeds (≥19.1 km/h). Results showed that during the 2010/11 season, squad utilisation was lowest potentially owing to the observed lower match injury occurrence and working days lost to injury thereby increasing player availability. In 2010/11, the team won both its highest number of points and conceded its lowest number of goals especially over the second half of this season. The team also won its highest number of games directly via a goal from a substitute and scored and conceded a goal first on the highest and lowest number of occasions, respectively. While multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) detected a significant difference in some attacking and defensive performance indicators across the five seasons, these were generally not distinguishing factors in 2010/11. Similarly, univariate ANOVAs showed a significant difference in running distances covered across seasons, but the trend was for less activity in 2010/11.

Joint Modelling of Goals and Bookings in Association Football

SummaryA multivariate counting process formulation is developed for the quantification of association football event interdependences which permits dynamic prediction as events unfold. We model data from English Premier League and Championship games from the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 football seasons and assess predictive capacity by using a model-based betting strategy, applied prospectively to available live spread betting prices. Both the scoreline and the bookings status were predictive of match outcome. In particular, the award of a red card led to increased goal rates for the non-penalized team and the home team scoring rate decreased once they were ahead. Overall the betting strategy profited with gains made in the bookings markets.

From Hillsborough to Rio de Janeiro

Twenty-five years after Hillsborough, football's world governing body FIFA insists that security and safety features are part of stadium design. However, World Cup 2014 organizers have a whole host of security issues with which to contend. Brazil also has its share of football (soccer) hooligans. Last December, rioting fans stopped a league game between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco da Gama. In March, a Santos fan was killed by rival Sao Paolo supporters. There were 30 fatalities at Brazilian football matches in 2013 and 23 in 2012. Organized gangs linked to crime cartels are behind much of the violence. A secret government report highlighted official fears about disgruntled Brazilians or politically motivated groups disrupting the World Cup with strikes and demonstrations. Security and safety is the responsibility of the government and host cities as well as the organizing body and host stadiums. Language: en

League scheduling and game bundling in sports industry

Most sport clubs offer season tickets first and they allow purchasing single tickets at a later date. There are several decision problems within this context; the determination of the optimal time at which the switch from bundled tickets to single tickets should occur, the decision of which event tickets to include into the bundle depending on the schedule of the team and the creation of a league schedule enabling revenue enhancements from game bundling. In this paper we have focused on the last decision problem. We analyze league scheduling and game bundling decisions together for a double round robin tournament in order to maximize the total revenue generated by all of the participating teams in the league. A heuristic method is offered which utilizes the approximate expected revenue values obtained by revenue increase and decrease patterns of bundled tickets. We test the offered heuristic’s performance and observe significant benefits numerically.

Spillover benefits to local enthusiasm: Increases in league-wide interest as a consequence of local sports team competitiveness

Previous research on competitive balance has examined the impact of league balance on local demand. Instead we examine how the competitiveness of the local team impacts consumer interest in other league games. Our modeling shows an 8.93 percent increase in NFL playoff television ratings for out-of-market games when the local team is actively competing in the same playoff tournament. Additionally, we find a 4.94 percent ratings premium when the out-of-market game features teams from the same conference as the local team and the local team is still active. We conclude that local team success is indeed related to increased interest in out-of-market games.

Altitude Does Not Reduce Concussion Incidence: Response.

Altitude Does Not Reduce Concussion Incidence: Response.

Rates of Concussion Are Lower in National Football League Games Played at Higher Altitudes

Retrospective epidemiologic investigation. To investigate the relationship between altitude and concussion rate in the National Football League (NFL). Because of the physiologic responses that occur during acclimatization to altitude, it was hypothesized that games played on fields at a higher altitude would have reduced concussion rates compared to games played on fields at a lower altitude. Recent research indicates that the elevation above sea level at which football games are played may be associated with the likelihood of a concussion in high school football athletes. Data on incident concussions and athlete exposures for the first 16 weeks of the NFL 2012 and 2013 regular seasons were obtained from publicly available web-based sources and used to calculate competition concussion rates for each NFL stadium. Concussion rates were analyzed in relation to game elevation. During the first 16 weeks of the 2012 and 2013 NFL regular seasons, 300 concussions, involving 284 players, were reported (64.3 primary cases per 10,000 game exposures). The odds of a concussion were 30% lower when playing at a higher elevation (equal to or greater than 644 ft [196.3 m] above sea level) compared to a lower elevation (odds ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.94). A multivariable generalized linear model controlling for season, week, and clustering of team at home and away confirmed these results, showing that the odds of at least 1 concussion were reduced by 32% in games played at higher elevation. The results of this epidemiological investigation indicate that increased altitude was associated with a reduction in the odds of a sport-related concussion in NFL athletes. The reported relationship of concussion incidence and field elevation should be further investigated, and, if verified, further work will be needed to understand why that relationship exists. Prognosis, level 2c.

Between-seasons competitive balance in European football: review of existing and development of specially designed indices

AbstractCompetitive balance is a key issue for any professional sport league substantiated by its effect on demand for league games or other associated products. This work focuses on the measurement of between-seasons competitive balance, the longest time-wise dimension, which captures the relative quality of teams across seasons. The review of the existing indices examines their applicability in the context of European football. Given that domestic championships are multi-prized tournaments, as opposed to the more common North American unitary structure with a single prize, a set of specially designed indices that capture the complex structure of European football are introduced. An empirical investigation, using data from the English Premier League, further elucidates the main features of all appropriate indices by exploring their value and trend. It may be inferred that between-seasons competitive balance in England worsens through seasons mainly due to the very low ranking mobility of the top teams through seasons.

Jリーグ観戦者の動機因子

The drivers of team attachment and repurchase behavior are complex. What remains unexplored is to examine the effects of spectator motives on team attachment and repurchase behavior among event attendees of a new professional sport league. Using a sample of 1228 attendees at J. League games in 1998, the authors demonstrate that (1) spectator motives consist of six factors, (2) the attraction-stage motives have significant effects on the attachment-stage motive (soccer club attachment) that in turn influences attendance frequency, and (3) the effects of the attraction-stage motives on the attachment-stage motive are enhanced by two moderating variables (gender and stadium size). The results suggest that managers must differentiate the marketing of individual athletes from the marketing of game, soccer, and club, specifically for male consumers and spectators attending games at small stadiums.

Using random forests to estimate win probability before each play of an NFL game

Before any play of a National Football League (NFL) game, the probability that a given team will win depends on many situational variables (such as time remaining, yards to go for a first down, field position and current score) as well as the relative quality of the two teams as quantified by the Las Vegas point spread. We use a random forest method to combine pre-play variables to estimate Win Probability (WP) before any play of an NFL game. When a subset of NFL play-by-play data for the 12 seasons from 2001 to 2012 is used as a training dataset, our method provides WP estimates that resemble true win probability and accurately predict game outcomes, especially in the later stages of games. In addition to being intrinsically interesting in real time to observers of an NFL football game, our WP estimates can provide useful evaluations of plays and, in some cases, coaching decisions.

Professional Rugby League Positional Match-Play Analysis Through the Use of Global Positioning System

The purpose of this study was to quantify the movement demands of all 9 individual playing positions in professional rugby league. The movement demands of 135 professional rugby league players were recorded during 28 National Rugby League games in 2011, using a nondifferential 5 Hz global positioning system. The mean total distances covered in a game for fullback, wing, center, five-eight, halfback, hooker, lock, back row, and prop players were 7,760, 7,457, 7,301, 8,402, 8,500, 6,988, 5,481, 6,936, and 4,597 m, respectively. The average occurrence of high-intensity runs per match was 42, 35, 34, 86, 120, 74, 52, 26, and 18 for fullback, wing, center, five-eight, halfback, hooker, lock, back row, and prop players, respectively. The average distance traveled greater than 18 km·h-1 for fullback were 17 ± 2 m, wing 18 ± 2 m, center 18 ± 3 m, five-eight 16 ± 3 m, and halfback 17 ± 4 m. The average distance and range traveled greater than 18 km·h for hooker were 14 ± 3 m, lock 16 ± 2 m, back row 18 ± 3 m, and prop 16 ± 2 m. The use of global positioning systems has demonstrated plausibility to eliminate the use of grouping of positions in rugby league and for coaches to make specific training protocols for each position. Given the differences in movement demands of all 9 positions in rugby league, some positions would lack specificity to their positional requirements if using collective grouping for planning of training regimens.

Reversal of fortune: a statistical analysis of penalty calls in the National Hockey League

This paper analyzes a unique data set consisting of all penalty calls in the National Hockey League between the 1995–1996 and 2001–2002 seasons. The primary finding is the prevalence of “reverse calls:” if previous penalties have been on one team, then the next penalty is more likely to be on the other. This pattern is consistent with a simple behavioral rationale based on the fundamental difficulty of refereeing a National Hockey League game. Statistical modeling reveals that the identity of the next team to be penalized also depends on a variety of other factors, including the score, the time in the game, the time since last penalty, which team is at home, and whether one or two referees are calling the game. There is also evidence of differences among referees in their tendency to reverse calls.

DHS tests facial ID video at hockey match

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the US plans to use video footage collected at a recent Western Hockey League game in Washington State to compare facial recognition technologies, according to FCW.com.

Factors Affecting Match Performance in Professional Australian Football

To determine the physical activity measures and skill-performance characteristics that contribute to coaches' perception of performance and player performance rank in professional Australian Football (AF). Prospective, longitudinal. Physical activity profiles were assessed via microtechnology (GPS and accelerometer) from 40 professional AF players from the same team during 15 Australian Football League games. Skill-performance measure and player-rank scores (Champion Data Rank) were provided by a commercial statistical provider. The physical-performance variables, skill involvements, and individual player performance scores were expressed relative to playing time for each quarter. A stepwise multiple regression was used to examine the contribution of physical activity and skill involvements to coaches' perception of performance and player rank in AF. Stepwise multiple-regression analysis revealed that 42.2% of the variance in coaches' perception of a player's performance could be explained by the skill-performance characteristics (player rank/min, effective kicks/min, pressure points/min, handballs/min, and running bounces/ min), with a small contribution from physical activity measures (accelerations/min) (adjusted R2 = .422, F6,282 = 36.054, P < .001). Multiple regression also revealed that 66.4% of the adjusted variance in player rank could be explained by total disposals/min, effective kicks/min, pressure points/min, kick clangers/min, marks/min, speed (m/min), and peak speed (adjusted R2 = .664, F7,281 = 82.289, P < .001). Increased physical activity throughout a match (speed [m/min] β - 0.097 and peak speed β - 0.116) negatively affects player rank in AF. Skill performance rather than increased physical activity is more important to coaches' perception of performance and player rank in professional AF.

From Fan to Fat? Vicarious Losing Increases Unhealthy Eating, but Self-Affirmation Is an Effective Remedy

Using archival and experimental data, we showed that vicarious defeats experienced by fans when their favorite football team loses lead them to consume less healthy food. On the Mondays following a Sunday National Football League (NFL) game, saturated-fat and food-calorie intake increase significantly in cities with losing teams, decrease in cities with winning teams, and remain at their usual levels in comparable cities without an NFL team or with an NFL team that did not play. These effects are greater in cities with the most committed fans, when the opponents are more evenly matched, and when the defeats are narrow. We found similar results when measuring the actual or intended food consumption of French soccer fans who had previously been asked to write about or watch highlights from victories or defeats of soccer teams. However, these unhealthy consequences of vicarious defeats disappear when supporters spontaneously self-affirm or are given the opportunity to do so.

Comparison of the Short-Term Oxidative Stress Response in National League Basketball and Soccer Adolescent Athletes

Physical exercise is considered protective against oxidative stress-related disorders. However, there is increasing evidence that strenuous activity may induce increased oxidative stress response. This study investigated the impact of vigorous physical activity on serum oxidative stress markers in 36 soccer and 12 basketball National League adolescent athletes 40 minutes before and 15 minutes after a National League game. Serum total peroxide, fibrinogen, polymorphonuclear (PMN) elastase, and myeloperoxidase levels were determined. No significant differences in any of the measured parameters were observed before the match. Soccer players exhibited significantly lower total peroxide (P < .05) and higher PMN elastase concentrations (P < .05) than that of the basketball athletes after the game. A number of important differences between these 2 sports, such as duration or total aerobic and anaerobic demands, may affect oxidative status. These parameters need to be further examined in order to elucidate the different effects of these 2 sports on postexercise oxidative status.

Pairing, game order and number of games in the playoffs of a basketball top competition: Do free throws have an influence on the score efficiency?

The researches reveal the importance of free throw efficiency to qualify for the victory in a basketball game. Hereafter, this investigation presents an analysis of free throws made in 74 Spanish ACB Basketball League games. The results show that pairings, order of games and number of games in the playoffs are not related to the accuracy percentage achieved in free throws. The shooting efficiency from the free throw line has significantly explained the points per game made ​​by each team. However, at the end of the game, it results that type of pairing, order of games and number of games in the playoffs free throw have not been factors for the number of points scored. Both home and visiting teams reach their maximum accurate percentage in semifinals and five-game playoffs. Key words: Free throw efficiency, contextual situations, stress, playoffs, basketball.

The Impacts of Promotions/Marketing, Scheduling, and Economic Factors on Total Gross Revenues for Minor League Baseball Teams

The purpose of this empirical study is to identify the key marketing and scheduling determinants of game attendance at minor league baseball games. Identification of such marketing and scheduling factors can provide the management of minor league teams in similar environments with information to more efficiently pursue the goal of game attendance maximization. To ensure greater comparability of data between teams and hence relevance of results, this study focuses upon a single grouping of teams, the Carolina League, and a single minor league baseball season, 2006. The Carolina League consists of eight teams serving eight metropolitan areas: Lynchburg City, VA; Winston-Salem, NC; Wilmington, DE; Salem City, VA; Myrtle Beach, SC; Prince William County, VA; Lenoir City, NC; and Frederick County, MD.

Match score affects activity profile and skill performance in professional Australian Football players

To examine the influence of quarter outcome and the margin of the score differential on both the physical activity profile and skill performance of players during professional Australian Football matches. Prospective, longitudinal. Physical activity profiles were assessed via microtechnology (Global Positioning System and accelerometer) from 40 professional AF players from the same team during 15 Australian Football League games. Skill performance measures (involvement and effectiveness) and player rank scores (Champion Data(©) Rank) were provided by a commercial statistical provider. The physical performance variables, skill involvements and individual player performance scores were expressed relative to playing time for each quarter. The influence of the quarter result (i.e. win vs. loss) and score margin (i.e. small: <9 points, moderate: 10-18 points, and large: >19 points) on activity profile and skill involvements and skill efficiency performance of players were examined. Skill involvements (total disposals/min, long kicks/min, marks/min, running bounces/min and player rank/min) were greater in quarters won (all p<0.01). In contrast, the players high speed running distance per minute (>14.5 km h(-1), HSR/min), sprints/min and peak speed were higher in losing quarters (all p<0.01). Smaller score margins were associated with increased physical activity (m/min, HSR/min, and body load/min, all p<0.05) and decreased skill efficiency (handball clangers/min and player rank/min, all p<0.05). Professional AF players are likely to have an increased physical activity profile and decreased skill involvement and proficiency when their team is less successful.