Leadership Contest Research Articles

Intra-Party Leadership Contests and Effect on Levels of Satisfaction with Democracy on Party Voters

Abstract This article investigates the relationship between intra-party leadership contestations on levels of satisfaction with democracy among party voters, trying to identify the impact of the former on the latter. The article draws on empirical data for a cross-sectional analysis from three different data sets that cover 11 countries, including a more case-specific analysis that utilizes panel data from Germany. Overall, the study aims to capture the dynamics of intra-party politics and the magnitude of its effect on perceptions of democracy among parties' voters. We find that intra-party politics at its probably most competitive version, that is elections for the head of the party, does not seem to exercise any significant influence on voters' satisfaction with democracy.

Estimating Ideal Points of British MPs Through Their Social Media Followership

Abstract Ideal points of MPs in the UK House of Commons (HoC) are characteristically difficult to ascertain due to tight party discipline and strategic voting by opposition members. This research note generates left/right ideal point estimates for 591 British MPs sitting in the HoC as of 22/08/2022, ascertained through their social media followership. Specifically, estimates are derived by conducting correspondence analysis (CA) on MP Twitter (X) follower networks, which are subsequently validated against an expert survey, confirming that these estimates have a high degree of between-party (R2 = 0.93) and within-party (Con: r = 0.84; Lab: r = 0.81) accuracy. The informative value of these estimates is then demonstrated by predicting candidate endorsement in the September 2022 Conservative leadership contest, confirming that an MP's ideal point was a statistically significant predictor of candidate endorsement, with Liz Truss drawing support primarily from the further right of the party.

Problem from mk powerful number 90/Puu- Xii/2023 related to article 169 letter Q number 7 Year 2017 about general election (Election Law)

Purpose: Constitutional Court (MK) Number 90/PUU-XII/2023 concerning That The age limit for presidential and vice presidential candidates is considered controversial and raises a number of problems. The following are some of the problems that emerged after the Constitution Court Decision: Controversy over the minimum age limit of 40 years for presidential and vice presidential candidates. Although some were granted by the Constitutional Court from That request testing Article 169 letter Q from That Election Law, that is That country officials with experience as DPR members, DPD members, DPRD members, governors, regent And mayor WHO is under 40 many years from age is still qualify to follow in National leadership contest. Research Methodology: as presidential candidate And badness presidential candidate in the general election, but this still causes controversy among the public and legal experts. Inconsistency from That Constitutional Court decision with previously decision. There is several legal experts who considers it Constitutional This court decision the timing does not match the previous decision of the Constitutional Court regarding the same object. Political interest in the decision of the Constitutional Court. Results: There is such a view with the decision of the Constitutional Court this time following That hope from That DPR And That government, So That That Constitutional Court seems to be a political tool so that the DPR and the President immediately make changes to the law and without involving public participation. Impact on the good name of the Constitutional Court and Indonesian law. There is A see That That Constitutional Court decision This time own A had a big impact on the good name of the Constitutional Court and Indonesian law, because the Constitutional Court was deemed to have deviated from its essence which should carry out checks and balances on other powers (executive and legislative). Limitations: Big question mark regarding the decision of the Constitutional Court. There are several notes that need to be criticized in the Constitutional Court decision Number 90/PUU-XII/2023, such as material aspects, procedures, And inconsistency in the That Constitutional Court decision with another about The same object. From a number of from This problem, he Can become conclude That That Constitutional Court Decision Number 90/PUU-XII/2023 has sparked controversy and needs to be studied more deeply to find go out That implications And impact on That democratic And law system in the Indonesia

Deterrence lessons from Ukraine

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Nostalgic for Cold War realism

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Yardsticks for deterrence

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Allies and partners: the role of Japan

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Why Indo-Pacific deterrence matters

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

The Philippines, Australia and other partners

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Taiwan and its predicament

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Danger, hiding in plain sight

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

Consistent America, inconstant America

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine confirmed that revived great-power competition has heightened the prospect of global conflict, while restoring the concept of deterrence to centre stage. The stakes in a conflict in East Asia, however, would be even higher than those in Ukraine. A war over Taiwan could bring the United States and China, the world’s two greatest powers, into a direct military conflict which would represent a contest for regional or global leadership and would be likely to draw other powers into the fight. Such a war – in which the nuclear question would be ever-present – can currently be described as ‘possible, avoidable, but potentially catastrophic’. In this Adelphi book, Bill Emmott evaluates the diplomatic and deterrence strategies that countries in and outside the Indo-Pacific region are using to try to reduce the risk of that conflict occurring. This book examines these strategies in the light of the lessons of the Ukraine war and identifies yardsticks with which to gauge their potential effectiveness and sustainability. Our goal, Emmott argues, must be for all sides to regard such a US–China conflict as ‘inevitably catastrophic and therefore inconceivable’.

The personalization of the Likud in the era of Netanyahu

AbstractObjectiveUnder the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud—Israel's most successful political party in the past 50 years—transformed from a highly institutionalized leader party into a personal party. This study explores the personalization of Likud and its various manifestations and analyses the causes of this process and its consequences.MethodsA case study. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis.ResultsAlthough the Likud party leader's formal roles, powers, and authorities did not change significantly, many informal developments enhanced the firm grip Netanyahu held on the party. Netanyahu manipulated leadership contests, and they became uncompetitive; the party's internal institutions were almost nullified and became no more than a rubber stamp to Netanyahu's interests; and Likud's representatives in the Knesset were transformed into a group of submissive cheerleaders.ConclusionsWe conclude that essential, routinized procedures within Likud were abandoned in favor of personalization of decision making; the “value” of the party organization was replaced with that of a single leader as perceived by important internal party actors and the electorate; and that other parties perceived Likud as personalized. On all fronts, the Likud underwent a personalization process. Moreover, the personalization of Likud, the ruling party, contributed to Israel's democratic backsliding.

Editorial: After the Fall …

The first half of 2023 saw considerable change in Scotland’s politics, with the resignation of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and a divisive and bitter leadership contest in the SNP. The nature and scope of this political crisis is not yet clear, and this editorial looks briefly at the prospects for the SNP, and its new leader Humza Yousaf, with the significant difficulties he faces in steadying the ship.

‘Huge fan of the drama’: Politics as an object of fandom

On June 12th 2019, in the middle of the UK Conservative party’s leadership contest, journalist Marie le Conte tweeted ‘so this is my first proper leadership contest as an actual Westminster person and honestly it’s such a hoot…huge fan of the drama’. This tweet is exemplary of a wider phenomenon. Politics is the activity through which power and resources are allocated across society – who gets what, when and how. Politics, and what it does to all of our lives, is consequential. Yet, despite this, many of those who pay the most attention to politics do so from the position of a fan, engaging with it in the way that others engage with entertainment forms like sport and television shows. Previous studies have paid attention to the fandoms and anti-fandoms that develop around individual politicians and movements – in other words, they maintain a focus on the behaviours and actions of these fans of politics. By contrast, in this paper we explore the construction of politics itself as an object of fandom, asking what happens to politics when it is treated in this way. The activity of politics can be socially constructed by humans to serve some purpose. Thus, who does the constructing and how they do this, affects what it becomes. Our claim is that constructing politics as an object of fandom (i.e. constructing it as ‘the drama’) affects politics itself.

Power struggles in the German Christian Democrats. The dynamics of three consecutive leadership contests

In 2021, the German Christian Democrats held three leadership contests. First, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) had to find a new party leader. While the members tended toward the more conservative candidate, Friedrich Merz, the party elite increasingly spoke out in favor of the more moderate Armin Laschet, who prevailed at a digital party conference. Just a few months later, he was challenged by his counterpart in the CDU's Bavarian sister party (CSU), Markus Söder, over who would be the joint chancellor candidate in the upcoming federal election. Söder was clearly favored by voters as well as the party on the ground, but Laschet found powerful and decisive support in the CDU's party elite. Yet the Christian Democrats surprisingly lost the federal election, mainly because of the unpopularity of its frontrunner. After Laschet announced his retirement, the party prepared the third leadership contest. This time, the party headquarter declared a membership ballot as the mode of decision-making, in which Merz triumphed. As this study clearly points out, each of the three selection modes developed its own dynamic in the matter of influencing factors, qualitatively as well as quantitatively. Process-tracing shows that the various selection processes are interrelated in terms of their dynamics and decision modes.

What is the Free Church of Scotland?

The 2023 Leadership contest for the Scottish National Party unexpectedly thrust a small Presbyterian denomination – the Free Church of Scotland – into the centre of political commentary. The social views of one of the candidates, Kate Forbes, a member of the church, formed the focal point of the early days in the campaign. A good deal of this commentary was deeply hostile towards the Free Church, suggesting that its members were morally unsuited, indeed unfit, to hold the highest office in Scotland. No other candidate (and indeed no other prominent Scottish or British politician) has received such scrutiny or criticism on the grounds of their religion or belief. One voice wholly absent in the debate was the Free Church and its people. In this article, then, a senior Free Church minister, and former Moderator of its General Assembly, explores the ‘DNA’ of the Free Church, its historical contribution to Scotland, and where it stands today.

From Team Nicola to Team Humza: the SNP Leadership Contest 2023 in Perspective

This article puts the 2023 SNP leadership contest in the context of the changing nature of party leadership, strategy to achieve independence and the backdrop to Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation. The SNP has experienced a radical change in its internal organisation with power concentrated in the leadership and the hollowing out of its internal democratic structures. Each candidate rejected Sturgeon’s proposal that the next UK election should be used as a ‘de facto’ referendum but differed in how prepared the SNP was for a referendum. Efforts to achieve a smooth transition to the outgoing leader’s preferred candidate were undermined when two others stepped forward. In the battle to frame the debate, Humza Yousaf sought to present himself as socially liberal and Kate Forbes, his main opponent, as socially conservative. Forbes initially struggled with this framing but gained ground as the internal party matters rose to prominence and public policy failings came to the fore during the contest with her ‘continuity will not cut it’ theme. Ash Regan, having resigned as a Minister under Nicola Sturgeon, offered robust criticisms especially of the SNP Government’s handling of gender recognition. The contest became as much a vote of confidence in the outgoing leader as a choice about her successor.

The 2022 Conservative leadership campaign and post-racial gatekeeping

The UK Conservative Party leadership contest that took place in the summer of 2022 was unprecedented for, among other things, its level of ethnic diversity. This article argues that this does not indicate a sharp, contemporary liberal turn within the party. It argues the opposite, in fact, that recent senior ethnic minority cabinet members and leadership contenders represent some of the party’s most rightwing ideologues in years. Through critical discourse analysis of narrative related to race, borders, immigration and the ‘nation’ in selected media appearances made by ethnic minority leadership contenders Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Nadhim Zahawi, Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch as part of their campaigns, this piece positions these individuals – in distinct yet interrelated ways – as ethnic minority post-racial gatekeepers, continuing yet intensifying a long trend within the Conservative Party of the reproduction of the racial status quo legitimised through nominal ethnic minority representation.

Boris Johnson and Beyond: The Revival of One Nation Conservatism?

The election of Boris Johnson with a substantial parliamentary majority in December 2019 featured the Conservative Party gaining a large number of previously safe Labour seats located in poorer, post-industrial areas (the so-called “Red Wall”). This specific electoral context, together with the stated aim of “levelling up” and the increased role for the central state necessitated by the Covid pandemic, created the opportunity for an ideological shift within the Conservative Party from Thatcherism to a revived form of One Nation Conservatism. However, the subsequent leadership contest of 2022 and Liz Truss’s disastrous attempt to revive economic liberalism has revealed the extent to which this was not achieved. The extent to which Johnson can be defined as a One Nation Conservative or be said to have left behind a One Nation legacy are evaluated in this article.