Average Probability Research Articles

Reliability analysis of the impact of thickness measurement accuracy on the longitudinal strength assessment of CAP

The reliability analysis of the longitudinal bending strength of ships is conducted using the total probability method, taking into account and analyzing the accuracy error in thickness measurement of transverse section members on existing servicing ships. A mathematical model for calculating failure probability CAP ratings is established. By calculating the CAP rating of an aged LPG carrier, it is observed that when the deterministic method reaches the target rating, the failure probability in rating calculation by the reliability analysis method is high. This indicates a significant influence of thickness measurement accuracy on CAP rating accuracy.

The impact of austerity on children: Uncovering effect heterogeneity by political, economic, and family factors in low- and middle-income countries

Which children are most vulnerable when their government imposes austerity? Research tends to focus on either the political-economic level or the family level. Using a sample of nearly two million children in 67 countries, this study synthesizes theories from family sociology and political science to examine the heterogeneous effects on child poverty of economic shocks following the implementation of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. To discover effect heterogeneity, we apply machine learning to policy evaluation. We find that children's average probability of falling into poverty increases by 14 percentage points. We find substantial effect heterogeneity, with family wealth and governments' education spending as the two most important moderators. In contrast to studies that emphasize the vulnerability of low-income families, we find that middle-class children face an equally high risk of poverty. Our results show that synthesizing family and political factors yield deeper knowledge of how economic shocks affect children.

Comparative Analysis of Ultrasonic and Traditional Gas-Leak Detection Systems in the Process Industries: A Monte Carlo Approach

Gas leaks can cause disasters at process sites, including fires and explosions, and thus, effective gas-leak detection systems are required. This study investigated the limitations of conventional detectors and introduced an innovative ultrasonic sensor-based approach for continuous monitoring. A new configuration for a stationary remote ultrasonic gas-leak monitoring system is proposed. The selected material was 1-Butene. The detection probability was assessed through a simulation based on a gas-leak scenario, detailing the selection criteria for leak sites and simulation conditions. Computational fluid-dynamics (CFD) simulations were used to evaluate the detection capability of the existing system, whereas Monte Carlo simulations were used to compare it with the proposed ultrasonic system. The CFD simulation was performed by setting the lower detection limit of the concentration-measurement-type gas detector to 600 ppm, and the leak-detection time was approximately 8.895 s. A Monte Carlo simulation accounting for wind direction showed that the existing system’s average detection probability was 3.41%. By integrating the existing and new systems, the detection probability increased by 96.58% and 3.92% compared with that using only the concentration-measurement and ultrasonic measurement methods, respectively. These rates provide valuable insights for future applications in oil refining and petrochemical industries.

Application of Judd–Ofelt theory in analyzing Dy: SrCaF4 single crystal

The optical properties of Dy:SrCaF4 crystal in the visible range are investigated. Judd-Ofelt intensity parameters are evaluated following the assignment of Stark levels of absorption bands. The absorption coefficient and absorption cross section are reported, together with the line strengths of several transitions from the ground state to excited state manifold, oscillator strength of the electric and magnetic dipoles moments (fed, fmd). The emission wavelength (λem), calculated fluorescence branching ratios (βR), radiative emission probabilities (AR), total radiative emission probability (Ar) and radiative lifetime (τR) of Dy3+ in CaSrF4 crystal are investigated for the transitions from energy levels 4F9/2 (474 nm), 4I15/2 (452 nm), 6P5/2 (364 nm) and 6P7/2 (348 nm) to related sublevels. Dy:CaSrF4 crystal is a promising gain medium for a continuous wave or tunable solid state visible micro-laser under the pump wavelength of 348 nm, 364 nm and 474 nm.

Model-Informed Precision Dosing to Reduce Vincristine-Induced Peripheral Neuropathy in Pediatric Patients: A Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Modeling and Simulation Analysis.

Vincristine-induced peripheral neuropathy (VIPN) is a common adverse effect of vincristine, a drug often used in pediatric oncology. Previous studies demonstrated large inter- and intrapatient variability in vincristine pharmacokinetics (PK). Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) can be applied to calculate patient exposure and individualize dosing using therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) measurements. This study set out to investigate the PK/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) relationship of VIPN and determine the utility of MIPD to support clinical decisions regarding dose selection and individualization. Data from 35 pediatric patients were utilized to quantify the relationship between vincristine dose, exposure and the development of VIPN. Measurements of vincristine exposure and VIPN (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events [CTCAE]) were available at baseline and for each subsequent dosing occasions (1-5). A PK and PKPD analysis was performed to assess the inter- and intraindividual variability in vincristine exposure and VIPN over time. In silico trials were performed to portray the utility of vincristine MIPD in pediatric subpopulations with a certain age, weight and cytochrome P450 (CYP)3A5 genotype distribution. A two-compartmental model with linear PK provided a good description of the vincristine exposure data. Clearance and distribution parameters were related to bodyweight through allometric scaling. A proportional odds model with Markovian elements described the incidence of Grades 0, 1 and ≥2 VIPN overdosing occasions. Vincristine area under the curve (AUC) was the most significant exposure metric related to the development of VIPN, where an AUC of 50 ng⋅h/mL was estimated to be related to an average VIPN probability of 40% over five dosing occasions. The incidence of Grade ≥2 VIPN reduced from 62.1 to 53.9% for MIPD-based dosing compared with body surface area (BSA)-based dosing in patients. Dose decreases occurred in 81.4% of patients with MIPD (vs. 86.4% for standard dosing) and dose increments were performed in 33.4% of patients (no dose increments allowed for standard dosing). The PK and PKPD analysis supports the use of MIPD to guide clinical dose decisions and reduce the incidence of VIPN. The current work can be used to support decisions with respect to dose selection and dose individualization in children receiving vincristine.

Comparing calibrated analog and dynamical ensemble solar forecasts

Ensemble modeling is a chief strategy for probabilistic forecasting. In weather forecasting, analog ensemble, which operates under the principle that weather patterns often repeat, and dynamical ensemble, which generates equally likely trajectories of future weather by perturbing the initial and boundary conditions, constitute the two most common approaches to making ensembles. That said, in the field of solar forecasting, nor is there any head-to-head comparison made thus far in regard to understanding the relative performance of these two competing approaches; this work seeks to fill the gap. Four years (2017–2020) of operational forecasts, at seven locations, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used, and both the raw and post-processed versions of the ensemble irradiance forecasts are verified in a fair and thorough fashion. Three classical post-processing methods, namely, Bayesian model averaging, nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression, and quantile regression, are applied to both the analog ensemble forecasts derived from ECMWF’s high-resolution control forecasts and dynamical ensemble forecasts from ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction System. It is found that analog ensemble before post-processing possesses some advantage in terms of calibration over dynamical ensemble; their average reliability values are 0.6 W/m2 and 8.2 W/m2, respectively. However, dynamical ensemble after post-processing becomes generally more attractive, obtaining an average continuous ranked probability score of 49.0 W/m2, against 51.7 W/m2 for AnEn.

Space–time labeling diversity for distributed Goppa-coded cooperative networks over Nakagami-[formula omitted] channels

This paper proposes the novel space–time labeling diversity for the distributed Goppa-coded cooperation (STLD-DGCC) scheme over the Nakagami-q fading channel to improve the performance of the short-to-medium information block transmission. Two different Goppa codes with the same information length are deployed in the source and the relay, respectively, with the Goppa code at the relay providing additional redundancy. Meanwhile, two distinct labeling mappers of M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (M-QAM) are used in the novel space–time labeling diversity (STLD) to achieve the extra diversity gain and decrease the error floor (EF) region in the Goppa coding scheme. To lower the computational complexity of the maximum likelihood (ML) detection, a near-ML reduced-complexity (RC) detection approach that compromises the system performance and the computation complexity is proposed. In addition, two novel joint decoding algorithms based on the critical signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold are presented at the destination, namely the parallel algorithm and serial algorithm, to enhance the overall performance of the proposed STLD-DGCC scheme. In the case of the Nakagami-q fading model, the analytical union bound of the average bit error probability is provided, which tightly matches the Monte Carlo simulated results at high SNR. The simulation results further indicate that the proposed STLD-DGCC scheme significantly outperforms both the corresponding non-cooperative Goppa coding scheme and the DGCC scheme without the STLD technique under identical conditions. Furthermore, the performance of the STLD-DGCC scheme surpasses that of the existing transmission scheme, offering a promising candidate for further small information block communications.

Bidirectional controlled remote state preparation in four-dimensional systems

In this paper, two novel schemes for bidirectional controlled remote state preparation (BCRSP) and asymmetric bidirectional controlled remote state preparation (ABCRSP) in four-dimensional systems are proposed. The first scheme uses a six-particle entangled state as the quantum channel. Under Charlie’s supervision, Alice and Bob can simultaneously create a single-particle four-dimensional equatorial state at each other’s location. Moreover, in the second scheme, using a seven-particle entangled state as the quantum channel, Alice remotely prepares a two-particle four-dimensional equatorial state for Bob, while Bob remotely prepares another single-particle four-dimensional equatorial state for Alice under the supervision of controller Charlie. Both schemes employ quantum operations such as control-not, projective measurement and unitary transformation in four-dimensional systems. It is worth noting that the proposed schemes have a total success probability of 100% in ideal environment. In addition, we also investigate the proposed two schemes in the noisy environment. The fidelities of output states are calculated and the effect factors are discussed. Finally, we give the advantages of these schemes compared to other schemes.

Translating trial results into interpretable risk estimates: Systematic analysis of cardiorenal outcome trials of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors

Background and aimsIn a randomised controlled trial (RCT), the between-arm difference in the average probability of an event per unit of time (i.e., yearly incidence risk difference, YIRD) is an easy-to-interpret treatment effect metric. We aimed to quantify the YIRD in cardiorenal RCTs of GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is. Methods and resultsWe digitally searched for RCTs published up to March 1st, 2023, including subjects with type 2 diabetes randomised to GLP-1RAs or SGLT-2is and investigating cardiorenal outcomes or death. We extracted information from Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots to obtain time-to-event individual data and estimate within-arm yearly incidence risk and YIRD. Data from 19 RCTs (28 kM plots) were analysed: comparing treatment to placebo, in GLP-1RA RCTs the YIRD ranged from 0.2 % (95 % CI: −0.7 %, 1.1 %) to −1.9 % (−3.1, −0.7), for primary outcome; and from −0.2 % (−0.5, 0.2) to −0.4 % (−0.7 %, −0.0 %), for mortality. With the exception of SOLOIST-WHF (YIRD 11.9 % for primary outcome), corresponding estimates in SGLT-2is RCTs were: from −0.1 % (−0.4, 0.1) to −5.0 % (−7.7, −2.6), for primary outcome; and from −0.1 % (−0.2, 0.1) to −1.9 % (−4.4 %, 0.6 %), for mortality. ConclusionThe YIRD metric complements other relative treatment effect estimates and helps quantify the absolute benefit of GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is.

Probabilistic approach for robust design with orthogonal experimental methodology in case of target the best

This paper aims to develop a probabilistic approach for robust design with orthogonal experimental methodology in case of target the best on basis of the probabilistic multi-objective optimization. In the treatment, the difference of the target value and the arithmetic mean value of performance indicators of the alternatives is taken one objective to be minimum, and the square root of mean squared error of actual value of performance indicators from the target value of the alternatives is taken as the second objective to be minimum, which contribute their partial preferable probabilities to the alternative individually. As an application example, the probabilistic method for multi-objective optimization is combined with orthogonal experimental methodology to conduct the optimum design, range analysis is used to total preferable probability subsequently, and ranking sequence of total preferable probability of alternatives is used to complete the optimization option.

“Practical elimination” principle in the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant design

The paper considers the implementation of the “practical elimination” principle in the design of the Akkuyu NPP with VVER1200 reactors being under construction in Turkey. The “practical elimination” principle is defined as follows: for accident sequences or phenomena that contribute or lead to unacceptable radiological consequences for the public or the environment, it shall be shown with a high level of confidence that their occurrence is highly unlikely. “Practical elimination” is proved predominantly by results of a Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment. The implementation of the “practical elimination” principle was considered at the level of accident sequences leading to a large radioactive release. It has been shown that each accident sequence leading to an unacceptable release has the probability of occurrence below 4.45Е–8 per reactor per year, while their total probability not exceeding the value of 6.17Е–7 per reactor per year. For the phenomena inside the containment area during severe accidents, including hydrogen detonation, a large thermal explosion, direct containment heating, overpressure in the containment volume, and the containment damage at later stages due to the basement melting through, their “practical elimination” has been demonstrated. The paper also considers specific hard-to-assess scenarios of beyond design basis accidents, for which the applicability of the “practical elimination” principle is assessed as well: a major positive reactivity insertion, a rupture of the reactor pressure vessel and other largescale components, damage of fuel elements in the spent fuel pool, severe accidents with the containment bypass or containment failure, and severe accidents accompanied the means for mitigating with their consequences being unavailable. Criteria have been developed and used for the “practical elimination” assessment. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken as part of the Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment which has shown that estimated values slightly depend on the analytical assumptions, as well as on the random change in the parameters that the affect the progression of severe accidents.

Emission rate optimization in diffusion-based molecular communication among mobile bacteria

In quorum sensing (QS), bacteria exchange information by using molecular signals to work together. In this paper, we study diffusion-based molecular communication with the QS mechanism between the transmitter node and receiver node which are composed of a population of mobile bacteria in a cluster, respectively. The expression of average bit error probability (BEP) at a receiver bacterium is derived. Furthermore, we use the projected gradient descent (PGD) algorithm to solve the optimization problem whose objective is to minimize the average BEP under emission rate constraints which require that the emission rate of each transmitter bacterium has lower and upper bounds. Finally, the numerical results show the PGD algorithm has good convergence behaviors and it is more efficient in finding the optimal emission rate with fewer iterations than genetic algorithm. The obtained results are expected to provide guidance in designing QS-based molecular communication system with lower average BEP.

The metacognitive awareness of reading strategy among pre-service primary teachers and the possibility of rating improvement using Rasch analysis

This study investigated pre-service primary teachers' reading strategies using the Metacognitive Awareness of Reading Strategy Inventory (MARSI) in the Indonesian version. The participants were 4377 pre-service primary teachers in Indonesia. The data were collected via an online form, and the invitations were sent out randomly. The participants were divided into two studies: 2912 participants were in study 1, which used a 5-point Likert scale, and 1465 participants were in study 2, using a 4-point Likert scale. The Rasch measurement approach was used in investigating the validity and reliability, rating improvement analysis, checking item difficulty functioning based on gender, and classifying pre-service primary teacher reading strategies. The adapted questionnaire satisfied all psychometric requirements based on Rasch modeling. The questionnaire with a 4-point scale showed better function than the 5-point one based on the observed measure average and curve probability category. The teachers' abilities ranged from − 6 logit to 6.45 logit.

Pengembangan Aplikasi Pembelajaran Mesin untuk Identifikasi Kemiripan Lukisan

This study has one goal, namely to be able to identify the similarity of paintings through painting imagery and from the image of the painting that has been input will show which artist's work is supposedly similar to the image that has been input. The algorithm used is a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). This study used painting imagery data from Kaggle in the form of a folder. The image data used was 4299 which was divided into training data and testing data with a total of 3444 data from 11 classes and as testing data as many as 855 from 11 classes. The framework used in this study is ResNet-50 and the Convolutional Neural Network which is applied is Tensorflow Keras. From the results of the study, it has produced an accuracy value of 24% with an average probability of up to about 80% and above.

Influence of stand and environmental factors on forest productivity of Platycladus orientalis plantations in Beijing’s mountainous areas

The purpose of forest management is to establish a forest ecosystem with multifunction in Beijing’s mountainous areas, and the priority is to increase forest productivity aiming to achieve carbon neutrality. In this study, we investigated 62 sample plots of Platycladus orientalis plantations and compared the relative contributions of stand and environmental factors to forest productivity by using variance partitioning analysis, the direct and indirect effects of these factors were explored by using structural equation model. And the geographical distribution of areas with higher forest productivity of Platycladus orientalis plantations was simulated and the contributions of these factors to the greater productivity was analyzed by using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results indicated that topography was the dominant factors affecting the forest productivity of Platycladus orientalis plantations, followed by stand and soil nutrient factors. The results of structural equation model indicated that both topography and stand factors not only directly affect forest productivity, but also indirectly affect it by influencing soil nutrients. Soil nutrients had only direct impact on forest productivity. Forest productivity of Platycladus orientalis plantations was higher in areas with low altitude (168–252 m), gentle slopes (5–13 degrees), sunny slopes or semi-sunny slopes, soil total nitrogen content (>1.5 g/kg), and soil organic matter content (>38 g/kg). By changing the slopes to 5–13 degrees, increasing soil total nitrogen content to 1.5 g/kg and soil organic matter content to 38 g/kg, the average existence probability of higher forest productivity areas increased from 0.32 to 0.46, and amount of areas with higher productivity will be increased by approximately 43.8 %.

Unveiling Coherent Control of Halomethane Dissociation Induced by a Single Strong Ultraviolet Pulse.

We present a theoretical investigation into the coherent control of photodissociation reactions in halomethanes, specifically focusing on CH2BrCl by manipulating the spectral phase of a single femtosecond laser pulse. We examine the photodissociation of CH2BrCl under an ultrashort pulse with a quadratic spectral phase and reveal the sensitivity of both the total dissociation probability and the resulting radical products (Br+CH2Cl and Cl+CH2Br) to chirp rates. To gain insights into the underlying mechanism, we calculate the population distributions of excited vibrational states in the ground electronic state, demonstrating the occurrence of resonance Raman scattering (RRS) in the strong-field limit regime. By utilizing chirped pulses, we show that this RRS phenomenon can be suppressed and even eliminated through quantum destructive interference. This highlights the high sensitivity of photodissociation into Cl+CH2Br to the spectral phase, showcasing a phenomenon that goes beyond the traditional one-photon photodissociation of isolated molecules in the weak-field limit regime. These findings emphasize the importance of coherent control in the exploration and utilization of photodissociation in polyatomic molecules, paving the way for new advancements in chemical physics and femtochemistry.

Dealing with highly kurtotic count data with excess zeroes: comparing different treatments in the control of dairy cattle gastrointestinal parasites

In this paper we provide a flexible statistical framework to compare different treatments, conventional and selective strategical (ST), in the gastrointestinal parasites (G. duodenalis) control of dairy cattle through the count of Giardia cysts. Distributional regression models are considered, allowing the modelling of not only the average of these counts, but also the extra probability that calves do not present any cysts. Our findings show a positive relationship between the count of cysts with the animal body temperature and in animals until the age 150 days (and then, the count decreases). Higher responses are observed during summertime. Animals submitted to the ST present a lower count of cysts than the ones submitted to the conventional option. Further, there is a smaller chance that the sample does not present any cyst during wintertime. Conversely, this chance increases if the animal is submitted to the ST and in the earliest ages. Finally, the probability that no cysts are observed in the sample is roughly constant up to 40 o C and then rapidly increases. Hence, distributional regression models provide a great alternative to explicitly select features to model different aspects (average and extra probability of zero) of the count of Giardia cysts.

Failure probability of a liquid storage tank with three-dimensional base-isolation under earthquake action

Liquid storage tanks are widely used in the petrochemical industry, but the fixed-base liquid storage tanks have a high probability of earthquake damage, therefore, the research on isolation and damping control of liquid storage tank has attracted wide attention. Based on the dual control requirements of the seismic response of the liquid storage tank itself and the liquid sloshing wave height, a new type three-dimensional isolation bearing suitable for the liquid storage tank has been obtained. Taking into account the material nonlinearity, the liquid-solid coupling, and the liquid sloshing characteristics, a numerical calculation model of the new type three-dimensional isolated liquid storage tanks is established by ADINA. The seismic vulnerability of the fixed-base and the new type three-dimensional isolated liquid storage tanks are investigated, the failure probability of liquid storage tank under different limit states is discussed, and the annual average failure probability and design life failure probability of the liquid storage tank are finally analyzed. The results show that, the probability of fully damaged wave height and axial stress of fixed-base liquid storage tank is 72.0% and 49.6% respectively, under the 9 degree rare earthquake. Compared to the fixed-base liquid storage tank, the failure probability of the axial compressive stress, hoop stress, and liquid sloshing wave height of the isolated liquid storage tank is significantly reduced, but the displacement of the isolation layer becomes the most easily damaged dynamic response. Besides, the new type three-dimensional isolation can significantly reduce the annual average failure probability and the design life failure probability of the liquid storage tank.

Short tandem repeat (STR) variation from 6 cities in Iraq based on 15 loci

BackgroundOne thousand sixty-one individuals were sampled from the cities of Anbar, Baghdad, Basra, Diyala, Najaf, and Wasit in Iraq and typed for 15 forensic STRs to explore the genetic structure of Iraq and develop a forensic DNA database. The total number of alleles that were identified was 203. ResultAnalyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) were then conducted Baghdad provides a good representation of the rest of the country, while Anbar is the most genetically distinct. The average heterozygosities of these loci was 0.779, homozygosities was 0.221, polymorphism information content was 0.77, power of discrimination was 0.927, and power of exclusion was 0.563. At these loci, a matching genotype will occur, on average, in 1 in 8.152 × 1017 individuals. For paternity tests, the average paternity probability for a matching profile is 99.9997%. ConclusionsThese loci are appropriate for use in forensic and paternity testing for this population. Iraq is similar to other countries in the Middle East, particularly Iran and Turkey, and is more similar to Europe than either Asia or Africa.

Target edge extraction for array single-photon lidar based on echo waveform characteristics

The target edge contains the shape and structure information of the target. Accurate extraction of target edges is the basis of target recognition and location. The number of pixels and signal-to-noise ratio severely limit the edge extraction capability of single-photon lidar. In this work, a target edge extraction algorithm for array single-photon lidar is proposed based on the distribution characteristics of the target edge echo waveform. The algorithm does not need to image the target or rely on the fixed direction edge detection template. The target edge is divided into the inside and outside edges based on the established target edge echo signal model of array single-photon lidar. Single and double Gaussian function fitting is used to extract the outside edge whose echo waveform is a double pulse distribution. The feature vector composed of skewness, FWHM, and total detection probability of the echo waveform is weighted K-means clustered to extract the inside edge whose echo waveform is a single pulse distribution. Screening misjudged pixels based on the Jensen-Shannon divergence between echo waveforms of each pixel to improve the edge extraction accuracy. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can extract target edges more completely and accurately than traditional edge extraction methods. The minimum inside edge depth of the target that the proposed algorithm can extract is cτ/2, where τ is the standard deviation of the emitted Gaussian laser pulse. This research has the potential to improve the target detection and recognition capabilities of array single-photon lidar.