Latitudinal Shifts Research Articles

Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages as tracers of paleoceanographic changes within the northern Benguela current system since the Early Pleistocene

Abstract. The Benguela Upwelling System (BUS), located in the southeastern Atlantic Ocean, represents one of the world's most productive regions. This system is delimited to the south by the Agulhas retroflection region. The northern boundary of the BUS is, instead, represented by the Angola–Benguela Front (ABF), which is a thermal feature separating warm waters of the Angola Basin (including the South Atlantic Central Water; SACW) from the cooler Benguela Oceanic Current (BOC). We performed statistical analyses on planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in 94 samples from Holes U1575A and U1576A, cored during International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 391. Drilled sites are located along the Tristan–Gough–Walvis Ridge (TGW) seamount track in the northern sector of the BUS (offshore the Namibian continental margin). The analyzed stratigraphic intervals span the Early–Late Pleistocene, marked by the Early–Middle Pleistocene transition (EMPT; 1.40–0.40 Myr), during which important glacial–interglacial sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities occurred. This work provides novel insights on the local paleoceanographic evolution of the northern BUS and associated thermocline variability based on the ecological significance of the foraminiferal assemblages. Specifically, variations in the assemblage content allowed us to characterize the different water masses (BOC, SACW, and Agulhas waters) and reconstruct their interactions during the Quaternary. The interplay of the previously mentioned water masses induced perturbations in the BUS (ABF latitudinal shifts and input of tropical waters from the Agulhas retroflection region). Furthermore, we investigated the possible link between changes in the paleoceanographic conditions and climatic events (e.g., Benguela Niño-/Niña-like phases and deglaciation stages) recorded since the EMPT.

Elemental stoichiometry of particulate organic matter across the Atlantic Ocean

Abstract. Recent studies show that stoichiometric elemental ratios of marine ecosystems are not static at Redfield proportions but vary systematically between biomes. However, the wider Atlantic Ocean is undersampled for particulate organic matter (POM) elemental composition, especially when it comes to phosphorus (i.e., POP). Thus, it is uncertain how environmental variation in this region translates into shifts in the C:N:P ratio. To address this, we analyzed hydrography, genomics, and POM concentrations from 877 stations on the meridional transects AMT28 and C13.5, spanning the Atlantic Ocean. We observed nutrient-replete, high-latitude ecosystem C:N:P to be significantly lower than that in the oligotrophic gyres. Latitudinal and zonal differences in elemental stoichiometry were linked to overall nutrient supply as well as N vs. P stress. C:P and N:P were generally higher in the P-stressed northern region compared to Southern Hemisphere regions. We also detected a zonal difference linked to a westward deepening nutricline and a shift from N to P stress. We also evaluated possible seasonal changes in C:N:P across the basin and predicted these to be limited. Overall, this study confirms latitudinal shifts in surface ocean POM ratios but reveals previously unrecognized hemisphere and zonal gradients. This work demonstrates the importance of understanding how regional shifts in hydrography and type of nutrient stress shape the coupling between Atlantic Ocean nutrient and carbon cycles.

Late Holocene record of subantarctic glacier variability in Table Fjord, Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands

The subantarctic islands between 40 and 60°S are circum-polar landmasses influenced by the southern westerly wind (SWW) belt whose latitudinal shifts are driven by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) over decadal timescales. In the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, the Kerguelen Islands (49°S) form a volcanic archipelago that is home to the Cook Ice Cap (CIC). Atmospheric drying favored by a poleward migration of the SWW induced a dramatic shrinkage of the CIC over the past 50 years. Current knowledge of how this decline compares with the natural variability of the CIC is unclear and based exclusively on geomorphological records with limited temporal resolution. This paper introduces a 4 kyr marine record built from a transect of giant piston cores collected in Table Fjord, southwestern margin of the CIC. Interpretation of sedimentary and geochemical proxies is supported by statistical correlations with the CIC surface mass balance on the instrumental timescale, and by the age overlapping with dated landforms and deposits over the last two millennia. High-resolution geochronological data (137Cs and 210Pb inventories along with 63 AMS 14C dates) corrected from a local marine reservoir age allowed reconstructing glacier variability at a multidecadal resolution. The CIC was paced by periods of glacial advances at 3.4–2.8, 2.3–1.7, and 1.35–1.15 ka cal BP, followed by a two-stage ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum between 0.7 ka cal BP and the early 20th century. Comparison with paleoenvironmental records from the subantarctic fringe zone and the southern mid-latitudes suggests SWW-driven precipitation (wetter and windier conditions) were the main driver of centennial-scale glacier variability in the Kerguelen Islands, notably after 2.3 ka cal BP. The Kerguelen record thereby supports a zonally-synchronous, hemispheric-wide SWW pattern pacing Southern Ocean climatic variability in a SAM-like mode. The Little Ice Age maximum ice extent results from the coincidence of cold conditions caused by an equatorward shift of the Polar Front, an oceanic front bordering the Kerguelen archipelago resulting in lower sea surface temperatures, together with wetter conditions favored by strengthened SWW.

Functional traits of ecosystem engineers as predictors of associated fauna

The ongoing combination of global warming and increased anthropogenic pressure is causing latitudinal shifts in marine species, potentially impacting community composition, local richness, and marine trophic webs. This study investigates the factors influencing the distribution and diversity of intertidal seaweed and associated peracarid communities, including their functional traits, and explores various facets of beta diversity (taxonomic and functional). We hypothesize that: 1) abiotic factors such as temperature and anthropogenic pressure significantly influence seaweed distribution and diversity shifts, and 2) changes in seaweed functional diversity have an impact on the diversity and functioning of its associated peracarid communities. The sampling was conducted along a wide latitudinal gradient in the NE Atlantic (27°N - 65°N), encompassing three distinct ecoregions: Northern European coasts, the Iberian Peninsula, and Macaronesia. The identified seaweed and peracarid species were classified functionally, and taxonomic and functional diversity were analysed on a large geographic scale. The northern region exhibited large brown canopy seaweeds and epibiotic isopods, while Macaronesia featured small red, highly branched, and calcareous crust seaweeds with burrower and tube-building tanaids. The Iberian Peninsula acted as a transitional zone, showcasing a mix of green, red, and brown seaweeds, along with Amphipoda peracarids found across all ecoregions. Our findings underscore the impact of geographic distance on total beta diversity, revealing distinct seaweed and peracarid communities across spatial gradients. Environmental variables, particularly pH and maximum sea surface temperature, emerged as significant factors influencing beta diversity patterns of seaweeds, indicating the potential impact of acidification and heat waves on community composition. In addition, seaweed functional traits were shown to be significant in shaping the diversity and abundance of associated peracarid assemblages, impacting both taxonomic and functional beta diversity. These findings provide crucial insights into the factors influencing the biogeography and biodiversity dynamics of intertidal seaweeds and associated peracarids, offering essential implications for conservation and management strategies amid ongoing environmental changes.

Holocene Climate Change Promoted Allopatric Divergence and Disjunct Geographic Distribution in a Bee Orchid Species

ABSTRACTAimSpecies with disjunct geographic distributions provide natural opportunities to investigate incipient or recent allopatric divergence. The combination of both genetic and ecological data may be fruitful to decipher the causes of such patterns: (i) actual vicariance, (ii) successful colonisation from one source to a new range (dispersal, biological introduction) or (iii) parallel convergent evolution.LocationSouthern France and Northern Spain.TaxonThe bee orchid Ophrys aveyronensis (and its two recognised subspecies O. a. subsp. aveyronensis and O. a. subsp. vitorica) displays a disjunct geographic distribution with two subranges separated by 600 km on both sides of the Pyrenees mountain range.MethodsAs allopatric divergence is often complex to document in the wild, we used a combination of population genomics and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the causes of this intriguing biogeographic pattern.ResultsThe population genomic data demonstrate that all the studied populations exhibit similar patterns of genetic diversity and dramatic decrease in effective size compared with the ancestral population. Significant genetic differentiation and reciprocal monophyly exist between populations of the two subranges of O. aveyronensis, despite a very recent divergence time as young as ca. 1500 generations ago. Moreover, paleo‐ENM analyses support that the disjunct geographic distribution of O. aveyronensis is consistent with a range split of a broad ancestral range, contraction and distinct longitudinal and latitudinal shifts in response to climate warming during the Holocene.Main ConclusionThe congruence of the results obtained from both population genomics and ENM approaches documents how very recent continental allopatric divergence initiated speciation in this system. O. aveyronensis provides a promising opportunity to study the onset of reproductive isolation and parallel evolution following an initial stage of geographic separation in a group with high diversification rate.

Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature.

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species. We measured the magnitude of shifts and compared them relative to average regional warming (that is, shift ratios). Species shifted poleward (1.1 km per year, mean shift ratio 11%) and to higher elevations (1.2 m per year, mean shift ratio 17%), while also shifting their breeding phenology earlier (0.08 days per year, mean shift ratio 28%). These general trends belied substantial variation among species, with some species shifting faster than climate, whereas others shifted more slowly or in the opposite direction. Across the three dimensions (n = 102), birds cumulatively tracked temperature at 33% of current warming rates, 64% of which was driven by advances in breeding phenology as opposed to geographical shifts. A narrow focus on spatial dimensions of climate tracking may underestimate the responses of birds to climate change; phenological shifts may offer an alternative for birds-and probably other organisms-to conserve their thermal niche in a warming world.

Effect of magnetospheric conditions on the morphology of Jupiter’s ultraviolet main auroral emission as observed by Juno-UVS

Auroral emissions are a reflection of magnetospheric processes, and at Jupiter, it is not entirely certain how the morphology of the UV main emission (ME) varies with magnetospheric compression or the strength of the central current sheet. This work leverages the observations from Juno-UVS to link ME variability with particular magnetospheric states. We employed novel arc-detection techniques to determine new reference ovals for the ME from perijoves 1 through 54, in both hemispheres, and analysed how the size and shape of the ME vary compared to this reference oval. The morphology and brightness of the ME vary in local time: the dawn-side ME is typically expanded, while the dusk-side ME is contracted, compared to the reference oval, and the dusk-side ME is twice as bright as the dawn-side ME. Both the northern and southern ME and the day-side and night-side ME expand and contract from their reference ovals synchronously, which indicates that the variable size of the ME is caused by a process occurring throughout the Jovian magnetosphere. The poleward latitudinal shift of the auroral footprint of Ganymede correlates with the poleward motion of the ME, whereas a similar relation is not present for the footprint of Io. Additionally, the expansion of the ME correlates well with an increase in magnetodisc current. These two results suggest that a changing current-sheet magnetic field is partially responsible for the variable size of the ME. Finally, magnetospheric compression is linked to a global ME contraction and brightening, though this brightening occurs predominantly in the day-side ME. This observation, and the observation that the dusk-side ME is typically brighter than the dawn-side ME, stands in contrast to the modelled and observed behaviour of field-aligned currents and thus weakens the theoretical link between field-aligned currents and the generation of the auroral ME.

Persistence, changes and robustness of nest webs along a latitudinal gradient in the Canadian boreal forest

IntroductionIn eastern Canada, the boreal forest is associated with an important latitudinal shift in forest composition and structure, which occurs in the transition between the mixed southern boreal forest and the coniferous northern boreal forest. Along this transition, upland mixedwood stands with large deciduous trees (important for cavity-dependent vertebrate species) are gradually replaced by forests with smaller conifer trees, primarily black spruce (Picea mariana). Concomitantly, the availability of lowland forests flooded by the American beaver (Castor canadensis), which can provide adequate conditions for tree-cavity users, is also decreasing.MethodsWe hypothesized that this latitudinal gradient would bring important changes in the functional diversity and network structure of vertebrate cavity-using communities. Along this latitudinal gradient we used a nest web approach to analyze the structure and robustness of networks of cavity users in upland forests and in lowland forests flooded by beavers.ResultsDespite their low availability in the northern forest region, we found that mixedwood stands persisted throughout the boreal forest in being the main drivers of nest webs network structure of upland forests whereas old black spruce stands contribution was low. In lowland forests, beaver ponds harbored nest webs with a rich and complex structure in both forest regions. Species removal simulations revealed that across our latitudinal gradient upland and lowland forest nest webs responded differently. In upland forests, the removal of trembling aspen and the Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus) caused the highest proportions of secondary extinctions, showing low robustness of nest webs given that these two species were highly connected to the other species. Contrastingly, nest webs in beaver ponds were more robust mainly because excavator species used a higher diversity of tree species despite the removal of the Northern Flicker (Colaptes auratus) which induced numerous secondary extinctions. The Pileated Woodpecker remained the pivotal species across the two forest regions in upland forests whereas the Northern Flicker became the main large cavity provider in beaver ponds across the latitudinal gradient.DiscussionWe discuss how mixedwood forests and beaver ponds, which are key habitat types for the cavity-using vertebrate community across our latitudinal gradient, should be maintained and protected in landscapes under industrial timber harvesting.

Still little evidence of poleward range shifts in the tropics, but lowland biotic attrition may be underway

AbstractSixteen years ago, Colwell et al. (2008: Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science, 322, 258) affirmed predictions that climate change and rising global temperatures would lead to widespread upslope range shifts of tropical species but predicted that poleward range shifts would be unlikely within the terrestrial wet tropics, because of the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient. They also predicted “biotic attrition” (a net loss of species) in equatorial lowlands, where no warmer regions exist as a source of more‐thermophilic species to replace species shifting upslope. Based on three recently published literature reviews of range shifts, covering more than 450 studies and thousands of species worldwide, we document more than 20 cases of elevational range shifts within the tropics, but we find no unambiguous examples of a latitudinal range shift for any fully tropical terrestrial species. In contrast, outside the tropics, the majority of documented range shifts are latitudinal. We summarize the state of knowledge about climate‐driven species range shifts in the terrestrial tropics and highlight the potential for climate change to cause extensive and widespread declines in lowland alpha diversity.Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

Evaluating the vulnerability of Tetracentron sinense habitats to climate-induced latitudinal shifts.

Exploring the changing process of the geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense Oliv. and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial period can provide a scientific basis for the effective protection and management of the species. The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense in different periods such as the last interglacial (LIG), the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene (MID), and the current and future (2050s and 2070s). On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. (1) The AUC and TSS values predicted by the optimized model were 0.959 and 0.835, respectively, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T. sinense in the current period are mainly located in Southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. (2) Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (Bio4), and surface calcium carbonate content (T-CACO3) are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense. (3) From the last interglacial period to the current period, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in mid-Holocene period may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. (4) Compared with the current period, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China in the 2050s and 2070s decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Temperature was the principal factor influencing the geographical distribution of T. sinense. With global warming, the range of T. sinense suitable areas will show a shrinking trend, with a shift toward higher-latitude regions. Ex situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.

An objective identification technique for potential vorticity structures associated with African easterly waves

Abstract. Tropical Africa and the North Atlantic Ocean are significantly influenced by African easterly waves (AEWs), which play a fundamental role in tropical rainfall and cyclogenesis in that region. The dynamics of AEWs can be described in a potential vorticity (PV) framework. The important impact of latent heat release by cloud processes is captured in this framework by the diabatic generation of PV anomalies. This paper introduces an innovative approach for the identification and tracking of PV structures within AEWs. By employing AEW tracking and computing the wave phase of each point within the AEW domain using a Hilbert transform, we are able to effectively identify and collect 3-D PV structures associated with specific AEWs. To facilitate a climatological analysis, performed here over the months of June to October from 2002 to 2022, these structures are subsequently characterized by low-dimensional descriptors, including their location, intensity, and orientation. Our climatological analysis reveals the seasonal evolution and the structural attributes of PV anomalies within AEWs over the study domain. PV feature locations closely align with the African easterly jet's latitudinal shift during the summer season. Analysis of the mean pressure level of the 3-D PV structures shows a remarkable shift during their life cycle, indicating deep moist convection characteristics over land and more shallow convection characteristics over the ocean. On average, PV features identified within AEW troughs tilt downshear over land and equatorward over the ocean. The trough-centered analysis reveals distinct differences between satellite-estimated and model-predicted rainfall. Agreement between the results of a more traditional composite analysis and our new feature analysis provides confidence in our feature approach as a novel diagnostic tool. The feature framework provides a low-dimensional representation of the PV structure of AEWs, which facilitates future statistical analyses of the relation of this structure to, for example, tropical cyclogenesis or the predictability of tropical rainfall.

Salmon shark seasonal site fidelity demonstrates the influence of scale on identifying potential high-use areas and vulnerabilities

Considering habitat use throughout the whole range of a highly mobile marine species is necessary to understand life history, identify vulnerabilities, and inform effective management. We used satellite tagging data from 128 adult female salmon sharks Lamna ditropis to identify seasonal hotspots of activity in an extended California Current region (ECCR; encompassing the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem), an area far away from their well-described primary habitat in the Alaska Downwelling Region where they have been documented, but whose utility has been poorly understood. Tag track durations had a mean of 447.7 ± 381 d, and 88 sharks (68.8%) visited the ECCR, comprising 33.6% of 28019 total daily Argos detections. Tracking data revealed that the timing and duration of migrations to the ECCR varied, but salmon shark distribution within the ECCR displayed consistent latitudinal shifts in accordance with regional oceanographic seasons. High site fidelity across multi-year tracks to high-productivity features, such as sea banks, and previously published knowledge of salmon shark life history suggest that the ECCR provides important foraging habitat which may be linked to reproductive success. The data reveal high overlap of salmon shark distribution with cumulative fishing effort collected by Global Fishing Watch for 2012-2019, particularly around seasonal hotspots, suggesting that female salmon sharks might be at risk of fisheries encounters. Collectively, our findings emphasize the importance of the ECCR in salmon shark life history and demonstrate the influence of spatial and temporal scale on interpretation of large movement data sets and identification of critical habitat outside of well-studied regions.

Deglacial Carbon Escape From the Northern Rim of the Southern Ocean

AbstractThe Southern Ocean regulates atmospheric CO2 and Earth's climate as a critical region for air‐sea gas exchange, delicately poised between being a CO2 source and sink. Here, we estimate how long a water mass has remained isolated from the atmosphere and utilize 14C/12C ratios (Δ14C) to trace the pathway and escape route of carbon sequestered in the deep ocean through the mixed layer to the atmosphere. The position of our core at the northern margin of the Southern Indian Ocean, tracks latitudinal shifts of the Southern Ocean frontal zones across the deglaciation. Our results suggest an expanded glacial Antarctic region trapped CO2, whereas deglacial expansion of the subantarctic permitted ventilation of the trapped CO2, contributing to a rapid atmospheric CO2 rise. We identify frontal positions as a key factor balancing CO2 outgassing versus sequestration in a region currently responsible for nearly half of global ocean CO2 uptake.

Quantifying uncertainty in simulations of the West African monsoon with the use of surrogate models

Abstract. Simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) system using numerical weather and climate models suffers from large uncertainties, which are difficult to assess due to nonlinear interactions between different components of the WAM. Here we present a fundamentally new approach to the problem by approximating the behavior of a numerical model – here the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model – through a statistical surrogate model based on universal kriging, a general form of Gaussian process regression, which allows for a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis. The main steps of our analysis are as follows: (i) identify the most important uncertain model parameters and their probability density functions, for which we employ a new strategy dealing with non-uniformity in the kriging process. (ii) Define quantities of interest (QoIs) that represent general meteorological fields, such as temperature, pressure, cloud cover and precipitation, as well as the prominent WAM features, namely the tropical easterly jet, African easterly jet, Saharan heat low (SHL) and intertropical discontinuity. (iii) Apply a sampling strategy with regard to the kriging method to identify model parameter combinations which are used for numerical modeling experiments. (iv) Conduct ICON model runs for identified model parameter combinations over a nested limited-area domain from 28° W to 34° E and from 10° S to 34° N. The simulations are run for August in 4 different years (2016 to 2019) to capture the peak northward penetration of rainfall into West Africa, and QoIs are computed based on the mean response over the whole month in all years. (v) Quantify sensitivity of QoIs to uncertain model parameters in an integrated and a local analysis. The results show that simple isolated relationships between single model parameters and WAM QoIs rarely exist. Changing individual parameters affects multiple QoIs simultaneously, reflecting the physical links between them and the complexity of the WAM system. The entrainment rate in the convection scheme and the terminal fall velocity of ice particles show the greatest effects on the QoIs. Larger values of these two parameters reduce cloud cover and precipitation and intensify the SHL. The entrainment rate primarily affects 2 m temperature and 2 m dew point temperature and causes latitudinal shifts, whereas the terminal fall velocity of ice mostly affects cloud cover. Furthermore, the parameter that controls the evaporative soil surface has a major effect on 2 m temperature, 2 m dew point temperature and cloud cover. The results highlight the usefulness of surrogate models for the analysis of model uncertainty and open up new opportunities to better constrain model parameters through a comparison of the model output with selected observations.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Evaluating the expansion of African species into Europe driven by climate change

AbstractAimOngoing climate change is presently influencing the distribution ranges of numerous species, with both range expansions and latitudinal shifts being observed. In southern Europe, a biogeographical border that separates African and European biota, while at the same time acting as a migration bridge for many species, these changes are of particular relevance. This study aimed to analyse the responses of nine typically African birds to climate change to provide information on the ongoing and future occupation of Europe by these species.LocationWestern Palearctic and surrounding areas.MethodsTo this end, the distributions of the species in their native ranges were modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using their current breeding ranges and a set of topographic and climatic variables. The climatic favourability for the nine species was then combined using fuzzy logic.ResultsThe results showed that southern Europe is highly favourable for our set of African birds, except for Rüppell's Vulture, and future forecasts indicated that this favourability would increase further north, again excluding the African Vulture.Main conclusionsIf the climate continues to warm, further arrivals of individuals are to be expected, increasing the possibility that self‐sustaining populations may become established in southern Europe. Furthermore, new African species may start to occupy this area, with the likelihood of an Africanisation of the European fauna. Considering the role played by southern Europe as a potential focal point for the colonisation of this continent by African species, it is important to track their northward expansion and future spread.

Opportunistic plant observations reveal spatial and temporal gradients in phenology

Opportunistic plant records provide a rapidly growing source of spatiotemporal plant observation data. Here, we used such data to explore the question whether they can be used to detect changes in species phenologies. Examining 19 herbaceous and one woody plant species in two consecutive years across Europe, we observed significant shifts in their flowering phenology, being more pronounced for spring-flowering species (6-17 days) compared to summer-flowering species (1-6 days). Moreover, we show that these data are suitable to model large-scale relationships such as “Hopkins’ bioclimatic law” which quantifies the phenological delay with increasing elevation, latitude, and longitude. Here, we observe spatial shifts, ranging from –5 to 50 days per 1000 m elevation to latitudinal shifts ranging from –1 to 4 days per degree northwards, and longitudinal shifts ranging from –1 to 1 day per degree eastwards, depending on the species. Our findings show that the increasing volume of purely opportunistic plant observation data already provides reliable phenological information, and therewith can be used to support global, high-resolution phenology monitoring in the face of ongoing climate change.

Nonstationarity in the NAO–Gulf Stream SST Front Interaction

Abstract The interaction between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the latitudinal shifts of the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front (GSF) has been the subject of extensive investigations. There are indications of nonstationarity in this interaction, but differences in the methodologies used in previous studies make it difficult to draw consistent conclusions. Furthermore, there is a lack of consensus on the key mechanisms underlying the response of the GSF to the NAO. This study assesses the possible nonstationarity in the NAO–GSF interaction and the mechanisms underlying this interaction during 1950–2020, using reanalysis data. Results show that the NAO and GSF indices covary on the decadal time scale but only during 1972–2018. A secondary peak in the NAO–GSF covariability emerges on multiannual time scales but only during 2005–15. The nonstationarity in the decadal NAO–GSF covariability is also manifested in variations in their lead–lag relationship. Indeed, the NAO tends to lead the GSF shifts by 3 years during 1972–90 and by 2 years during 1990–2018. The response of the GSF to the NAO at the decadal time scale can be interpreted as the joint effect of the fast response of wind-driven oceanic circulation, the response of deep oceanic circulation, and the propagation of Rossby waves. However, there is evidence of Rossby wave propagation only during 1972–90. Here it is suggested that the nonstationarity of Rossby wave propagation caused the time lag between the NAO and the GSF shifts on the decadal time scale to differ between the two time periods.

Climate projection and future rainfall trends analysis in the Nouhao sub-basin in Burkina Faso.

<p>Climate change is an indicator of changes happening in the biosphere. Monitoring it, will anticipating actions against the resulting disasters. This study, undertaken in Burkina Faso Nouaho sub basin, gives an overview of rainfall in the near, medium and long terms. It is built on regional climates models which are climates projections from global climate models downscaling. These models are generated basis on scenarios like greenhouse gas emissions and radiative forcing called Regional Concentration Pathways (RCP). The two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 chosen in this study, have enabled to identify a rainfall regional climate model whose output corrected basis on Nouhao sub-basin observation data, highlight changes in sub-basin future precipitation. Over the three defined normal, i.e. normal 1 (2021-2050), normal 2 (2051-2080) and normal 3 (2071-2100), cumulative annual rainfall mean shows a downward trend under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and an upward trend under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows very wet years at the start of normal 1, before giving way to alternating years close to normal rainfall, in normal 2 and 3. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the SPI shows a dominance of dry years in normal 1. In normal 2 and 3, wet and very wet years return to dominate. The spatial dynamics of future rainfall, meanwhile, show a latitudinal shift in annual rainfall totals towards the south-east of the sub-basin under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and towards the north-west under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The climate projection thus highlights possible future changes in precipitation in the sub-basin. Its consideration could form the basis for the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in the area.</p>

Understanding the Effect of Climate Change on Migratory Birds: A Review

Climate change is being referred to as a global plague and has significant negative consequences on the world’s economic, social, and ecological systems. Extreme weather consequences like drought, floods, and heat waves have had unprecedented occurrences and have had substantial effects on animals and plants. Climate change significantly influences animal phenologies, such as bird arrival and egg-laying times. As a result of these present and future climate change impacts, species interactions with their local environment are anticipated to change, resulting in changes in population size, range extent, and extinction rates. The current review discusses the effect of climate changes on migratory birds and concludes that climate change is one of the most serious dangers to world ecological systems, as indicated by the numerous ecological impacts imposed by changing climate on migratory birds. Climate change significantly affects breeding strategies, migration, distribution, latitudinal or altitudinal shift, community structure change, morphological change, and elimination or extinction of migratory birds. The current review attempts to communicate research and advances in the effect of climate change on migratory birds to different actors in society, including researchers, conservationists, practitioners, and policymakers.