Late March Research Articles

Soil Solarization as an Alternative Weed Control Method for Archaeological Sites in the Mediterranean Region

Weed species commonly colonize archaeological sites in the Mediterranean region, which poses many issues for the sites’ function and the state of preservation of the monuments. Soil solarization was investigated as an alternative environmentally friendly weed control strategy following legislative limits on the use of herbicides at archaeological sites in Greece. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of solarization applied during: (a) summer (the hottest season, as applied in organic and integrated agriculture) and (b) autumn (a season of low tourist activity in archaeological sites), testing two types of plastic mulching: (a) clear and (b) opaque black, and two types of soil preparation: (a) with tillage (as in the agricultural practice of the method) and (b) without tillage. Visual evaluation of the weed control rate suggested that the application of soil solarization during summer resulted in excellent weed control, 100% the following October to December period and over 90% until February. The application of soil solarization during autumn also provided excellent weed control and treatments with clear plastic and tillage resulted in complete (100%) weed control from October to December, while the following month weed control was over 90%. In late March, dry weight of weed biomass was significantly affected by the solarization treatments and it was significantly reduced by treatments with clear plastic. Thus, soil solarization is a sustainable method that has the potential to be used effectively for weed management in archaeological sites of the Mediterranean region. Even treatments without tillage generated excellent weed control during the winter weed flush period and are recommended to protect unexcavated, fragile artifacts. Also, the results of autumn treatments encourage the application of the method during the season of low tourist activity at archaeological sites.

Impacts of the COVID lockdown on household incomes: evidence from Punjab, India

In response to the beginnings of the COVID-19 pandemic, India’s government instituted a severe nationwide lockdown in late March 2020. In this paper, we analyze household survey data on income from an Indian state, Punjab. We analyze the impacts of the pandemic and lockdown on total household income, as well as its components, including wages, business income and transfers. This paper innovates in this area by using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation to deal with the skewed distributions of various income components, as well as quantile regressions to examine differential impacts across the income distribution. We examine the differences between rural and urban households, differential impacts on female-headed and laborer households, and the time pattern of impacts. We find that rural households experienced more persistent income declines than urban households, and their wages suffered relatively more. Households with daily laborers were most badly affected, and this was especially true at the bottom of the income distribution.

Quantifying anomalies of air pollutants in 9 U.S. cities during 2020 due to COVID-19 lockdowns and wildfires based on decadal trends

The COVID-19 pandemic led many state and local governments in the United States to enact lockdowns to control the spread of the virus. These actions led to lower on-road emissions as a significant portion of the workforce began working from home. Here, we examine the concentrations of primary pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO), a secondary pollutant, ozone (O3), and one that is both a primary and secondary pollutant, particulate matter (PM2.5), from 9 U.S. cities in 2020 using data reported to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to determine how they changed during the pandemic. We used a multiple linear regression model fitted to historical data to account for meteorology and found concentrations of NO2, O3, and CO generally decreased in the 9 cities in late March and early April, consistent with previous literature and a fuel-based emissions inventory. We further found the decadal trends of the 4 pollutants were decreased in the summer months for most of the cities studied. An analysis of weekend decreases in NO2 was consistent with previous studies; however, the weekend increases in O3 were typically dominated by reduced NOx titration. We further detect anomalous increases in NO2, CO, O3, and PM2.5 in western U.S. cities in the late summer, which we attribute to wildfire emissions. Finally, we examined diel profiles to determine when changes due to COVID-19 lockdowns and late-summer wildfires were most apparent during the day.

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting.

The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. The SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout.

CsMYB15 positively regulates Cs4CL2-mediated lignin biosynthesis during juice sac granulation in navel orange.

'Lane Late', a late-maturing navel orange cultivar, is mainly distributed in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, which matures in the late March of the next year and needs overwintering cultivation. Citrus fruit granulation is a physiological disorder, which is characterized by lignification and dehydration of juice sac cells, seriously affecting the commercial value of citrus fruits. The pre-harvest granulation of late-maturing navel orange is main caused by low temperature in the winter, but its mechanism and regulation pattern remain unclear. In this study, a SG2-type R2R3-MYB transcription factor, CsMYB15, was identified from Citrus sinensis, which was significantly induced by both juice sac granulation and low temperature treatment. Subcellular localization analysis and transcriptional activation assay revealed that CsMYB15 protein was localized to the nucleus, and it exhibited transcriptional activation activity in yeast. Over-expression of CsMYB15 by stable transformation in navel orange calli and transient transformation in kumquat fruits and navel orange juice sacs significantly increased lignin content in the transgenic lines. Further, Yeast one hybrid, EMSA, and LUC assays demonstrated that CsMYB15 directly bound to the Cs4CL2 promoter and activated its expression, thereby causing a high accumulation of lignin in citrus. Taken together, these results elucidated the biological function of CsMYB15 in regulating Cs4CL2-mediated lignin biosynthesis, and provided novel insight into the transcriptional regulation mechanism underlying the juice sac granulation of late-maturing navel orange.

Polarization in public attitudes toward end-of-life decisions in Israel - A cross-sectional study.

End-of-life (EoL) processes are a complex socio-normative and ethical phenomenon. This study aimed to generate a database of public opinion in Israel concerning EoL processes and decisions and to identify differences in attitudes across subgroups in the population, particularly based on experience as a family caregiver of a dying patient. This cross-sectional study was performed in late March 2022. The study utilized an online sample of 605 adults over the age of 50 including those who accompanied a loved one to their death in the last 3 years. Participants were requested to provide their opinions and attitudes on several aspects of EoL decisions, including truth-telling, medically assisted dying, EoL procedures, pre-death actions, and family caregivers' engagement. While only 27% and ∼30% of participants support artificial respiration or feeding (respectively) of terminally ill patients, 66% support analgesic treatment, even at the risk of shortening life. The data show an association between religiosity and agreement with life-extending procedures. For example, while 83% of seculars support medically assisted dying, only 59% and 26% of traditional and religious respondents support it. However, no statistically significant differences were observed in support of family involvement in EoL process in any sociodemographic variable. The results of this study suggest that the Israeli public is relatively polarized on several issues about EoL processes, specifically patient autonomy and medically assisted dying. Yet, at the same time, there is a consensus among the Israeli public about certain EoL elements, particularly the importance of family caregivers in the EoL decision-making process.

Characteristics of cliff nest sites of Golden Eagles in forested hills of southeast Norway

Cover photo: Adult Golden Eagle. Photo: Kristian Henriksen. The characteristics of cliff nest sites of the Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos were evaluated from a sample of 57 nests, located during 2000–2020 in the forested valley of Valdres in southeast Norway. About 80% of nests were facing to the south and east, but availability of nest ledges seemed largely a consequence of cliff structure and orientation. Among the 57 nest sites, 4% were placed in a corner with vertical walls, 33% on a ledge with overhang, 10% on a ledge with a vertical back wall, 2% on a ledge with a reclining wall, 49% within a cavity and 2% within a cave. Thus, about 83% of the nest sites were sheltered by an overhang, a cavity or a cave in the cliff within 0.5–2 meters from the nest, and only 16% of sites lacked shelter from above. Heavy snowfall in early spring, torrential rain or strong winds in spring and summer may increase mortality among the nestlings unless the nest site is well sheltered. Moreover, a dry and snowless nest may allow the eagles to start early incubation in late March, thereby increasing fledgling survival. Cavitynests are sheltered sites with less visibility that might protect from attacks from other raptors and Ravens Corax corax.

44-LB: The Effect of Substituting Water for Diet Beverages on CGM Metrics in People with Type 2 Diabetes (T2D)—The Study of Drinks with Artificial Sweeteners (SODAS)

Objectives: Diet beverages (DB) are the largest contributor to artificial sweetener intake in the U.S. diet. People with T2D are the highest consumers of DB, tending to consume them in place of added sugar, especially sugar-sweetened beverages. However, there is little evidence on the health impact of habitual DB consumption by people with T2D. To inform this topic we conducted a randomized trial. Methods: The SODAS study is a two-arm parallel trial with a run-in period of 2 weeks and 24 week intervention that randomized 181 adults with T2D (HbA1c 6.5 - ≤ 8.5%), age 35+ years, who were usual consumers of commercial DB to receive and consume either: 1) A commercial DB of choice (24 oz. daily); or 2) Unflavored sparkling or flat bottled water of choice (H2O) (24 oz. daily). Outcomes include measures of clinical diabetes control and mechanisms that may alter clinical risk. Here we report preliminary secondary outcome results from continuous glucose monitor (CGM) metrics. Participants wore a blinded, Abbott Freestyle Libre CGM for 3, 2-week periods (run-in, week 12, week 24). We conducted an intent to treat analysis to assess the between-arm difference in change of CGM metric from baseline-week 12- week 24 via linear mixed regression models. Results: 179 participants will have complete data when study finishes collection in late March 2023, and 166 had provided complete data at the time of analysis. Participants were a mean age of 58 years, and 55% were men. Time in range (TIR, % of readings 70-180 mg/dL) decreased in both arms and at week 24 the mean TIR for DB was 71.3 (SE 2.8) v. 64.3 (SE 2.8) for H2O, difference of means 7.0 (95% CI -0.7, 14.8), P=0.08). Glycemic variability (%CV) was 27.0 (SE 0.8) for DB at week 24 v. 28.7 (SE 0.8) for H2O, difference in means 1.6 (95% CI -3.8, 0.5), P=0.13. Conclusions: Preliminarily, in people with T2D who habitually consumed DB, there were no significant differences in CGM metrics when substituting H20 intake for DB. Disclosure A. Odegaard: None. A. Bantle: None. E. R. Seaquist: Consultant; Zucara Therapeutics. A. Reikes: Other Relationship; GlaxoSmithKline plc. M. A. Pereira: None. Funding National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK117028)

Decadal changes in the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone and sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific

Using multi-source observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study found that the relationship between Arctic stratospheric ozone in March and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in April shows dramatic decadal changes, and it significantly weakens since the 2000s. By enhancing the stratospheric circulations, a decreased Arctic stratospheric ozone favors tropospheric positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO)-like anomaly during PRE eras (1979–1999), with positive geopotential height (GH) anomalies over high-latitude Asia. The stratospheric ozone anomaly also favors the Asian positive GH anomalies via modulating high cloud and its related longwave radiation. According to geostrophic wind relationships, the Asian positive GH anomalies are accompanied by easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia in late March, which further extend eastward and thereby induce easterly anomalies over the midlatitude North Pacific. The North Pacific easterly anomalies result in negative North Pacific Oscillation (–NPO)-like anomaly via vorticity forcing of zonal wind and the interactions between synoptic-scale eddies and mean flow, forcing significant SST anomalies. However, during POST eras (2000–2019), firstly, the +AO-related positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia are relatively weak, accompanied by weak easterly anomalies over midlatitude Asia according to geostrophic wind relations, which induce weak easterly anomalies over the North Pacific. Secondly, a westerly anomaly occurs over the midlatitude North Pacific, which partly offsets the easterly anomalies from Asia, weakening the North Pacific easterly anomalies. The weak easterly anomalies further induce weak –NPO and SST anomalies during the POST eras. Our analysis further indicates that the North Pacific westerly anomalies and weakening of the positive GH anomalies over high-latitude Asia associated with ozone are related to the interference of the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation and the weakened stratospheric ozone anomaly over high-latitude Asia, respectively.

The Common Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) in the Carpathian Basin

Abstract The Common Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) is a species with an extremly large distribution range. Its European population is the strongest in the Mediterranean, but it also breeds in Central Europe. It still nests in small numbers in the Carpathian Basin, but has become extinct as a breeder in Hungary, where it was never a common species. In the present study, we summarised the occurrences of the species in the Carpathian Basin published in the literature. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a large amount of observational data on the spring migration of the species was collected, which allowed us to describe the migration phenology of that time. The Common Rock Thrush bred in small numbers in mountainous areas of Hungary, in natural habitats and in mines, vineyards and orchards. The collapse of the population occurred in the 1970s, but thereafter a few pairs bred in Hungary until the 2010s. Very few published records were found in Slovakia and Romania, which does not give a true picture of its former distribution there. However, its population has also declined drastically in Romania and it has become extinct as nesting species in Slovakia. The exact cause of the decline cannot be determined and several explanations have been proposed in recent decades. It is likely that the Carpathian Basin population, which is considered to be an edge-population, has been more exposed to negative changes, such as climate change, chemical inputs or changes in wintering grounds. A century earlier, the median date of the first spring returns was mid-April, but sometimes it was observed as early as late March. Nowadays, vagrant individuals have been observed again several times in Hungary, which gives us some hope for the future.

Artificial Intelligence and Health Care: What's to Worry?

Artificial Intelligence and Health Care: What's to Worry?

Characterizing seasonal changes in the reproductive activity of Culex mosquitoes throughout the fall, winter, and spring in Ohio

BackgroundCulex mosquitoes are the primary vectors of West Nile virus (WNV) across the USA. Understanding when these vectors are active indicates times when WNV transmission can occur. This study determined the proportion of female Culex mosquitoes that were in diapause during the fall and winter and when they terminated diapause and began blood feeding in the spring.MethodsMosquitoes were collected from parks using various traps and/or aspirated from culverts in Franklin County, Ohio, from October to mid-May from 2019 to 2022. Culex mosquitoes were morphologically identified to species, and the ovaries of females were dissected to determine their diapause and parity statuses.ResultsBy early October 2021, roughly 95% of Culex pipiens collected in culverts were in diapause and 98% of Cx. erraticus were in diapause. Furthermore, gravid and blood-fed Culex salinarius, Cx. pipiens, and Cx. restuans were collected in late November in 2019 and 2021 in standard mosquito traps. In the winter of 2021, the proportions of non-diapausing Culex decreased within culverts. The last non-diapausing Cx. erraticus was collected in late December 2021 while the final non-diapausing Cx. pipiens was collected in mid-January 2022, both in culverts. Roughly 50% of Cx. pipiens terminated diapause by mid-March 2022, further supported by our collections of gravid females in late March in all 3 years of mosquito collection. In fact, male mosquitoes of Cx. pipiens, Cx. restuans, and Cx. territans were collected by the 1st week of May in 2022, indicating that multiple species of Culex produced a second generation that reached adulthood by this time.ConclusionsWe collected blood-fed and gravid Culex females into late November in 2 of the 3 years of our collections, indicating that it might be possible for WNV transmission to occur in late fall in temperate climates like Ohio. The persistence of non-diapausing Cx. pipiens and Cx. erraticus throughout December has important implications for the winter survival of WNV vectors and our overall understanding of diapause. Finally, determining when Culex terminate diapause in the spring may allow us to optimize mosquito management programs and reduce the spread of WNV before it is transmitted to humans.Graphical

Morphological Development and Nutritional Metabolism during Floral Bud Differentiation in Acca Sellowiana (Feijoa)

ABSTRACT To provide scientific and technological support for the smooth development of flowers, regulation of florescence, and cultural management, among others, this study analyzes the corresponding relationship between bioclimatology and the characteristics of growth, development, and reproductive biology of A. sellowiana. Berg (Feijoa). Therefore, through optimized paraffin sections, this study examined the floral bud differentiation in five-year-old A. sellowiana trees and analyzed the dynamic changes in carbohydrate and nitrogenous compound metabolism during floral bud differentiation and flower development under natural growth conditions. The results showed that there were six stages in the differentiation process of A. sellowiana floral buds: the initiation of differentiation, inflorescence primordium differentiation, sepal primordium differentiation, petal primordium differentiation, stamen primordium differentiation and pistil primordium differentiation. Differentiation of floral buds began in late March in the Mianyang region, China, and lasted approximately 30 days. Following bud differentiation, the growth enters a period of bud development lasting approximately five months. Throughout the entire differentiation process, the flower buds contained significantly higher levels of total sugar, starch, soluble sugar, and nucleic acid than those in the leaves, and a peak of total nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, and sucrose during the physiological transition period. Total nucleic acid and RNA content both increased, with RNA content increasing more significantly.

Rainfall onset and cessation over Mozambique and relationship with sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns

AbstractMozambique is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture. Thus a climatology of rainfall onset and cessation is derived together with their interannual variability and trends using gridded daily data and station data. Mean onset is found to occur from early to mid‐November over southernmost regions, mid‐ to late November over central regions and late November to early December over the northern and coastal regions while cessation is from mid to late March over southern and late March to early April over most of central and northern Mozambique. The two gridded datasets showed differences (~30 days) in rainfall onset and cessation dates over southern Mozambique with standard deviations of 20–35 days. Timing of early onset over northern and central Mozambique appears associated with both zonal and meridional moisture convergence and tropical extratropical cloud bands, while timing of late onset is associated with southeast moisture fluxes from the subtropical South Indian Ocean and uplift over the landmass. Early (late) onset appears to be linked to La Niña (El Niño), particularly over central Mozambique. Rainfall cessation over most of Mozambique tends to be early (late) during El Niño (La Niña) summers. The relationship of ENSO with onset and cessation over large areas in Mozambique may help farmers and other user groups in planning their activities for the rainy season.

The onset of stratospheric final warming and record–breaking April surface warming over Central Asia in 2022

In the spring of 2022, a stratospheric final warming (SFW) event occurred on March 19 at 10 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere, ranking the third earliest SFW event during 1979–2022. Meanwhile, Central Asia recorded the highest surface air temperature (SAT) in the ensuing April in recent 44 years. Based on the fifth generation reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study reports an intimate linkage between the SFW onset and the extremely high SAT in Central Asia in April 2022. Specifically, after the SFW onset, positive geopotential height anomalies in the stratospheric polar region persist for more than a month, which propagate downward to the troposphere in about one week, resulting in a negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) in the upper troposphere during the period from late March to mid-April. Such a negative NAM tends to excite an anomalous Rossby wave train propagating southeastward from the North Atlantic to Central Asia, causing an anomalous high over Central Asia in the middle and upper troposphere. As a result, the associated anomalies in descending motion and adiabatic heating would lead to the in situ unprecedented high SAT in April.

Delta plus: A New Variant of Corona Virus

The Delta plus variant, often known as the K417N mutation, is a Covid-19 viralariant. K417N was initially discovered in India in April 2021 and was first announced in the public health England bulletin on June 11th. The report was released in order to continue sharing detailed Delta surveillance information (VOC-21APR-02, B.1.617.2). Delta plus has also been discovered in nine other nations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Switzerland, Japan, Poland, Nepal, Russia, and China. On the Coronavirus spike, the Delta plus variation has an extra mutation termed K417N, which has been detected in South Africa and Brazil also. Delta plus may have a modest advantage in infecting and propagating among those who have already been infected. The Indian variety of SARS CoV-2, also known as B.1.617, is a Coronavirus variant that had a key role in India's second wave of infection. B.1.617 has three noteworthy sub variants. B.1.617.2, which was detected in India in December 2020, is the most concerning. In December 2020, a new sub-variant known as B.1.617.1 was discovered for the first time in India. B.1.617.1 was found in 50% of all reported sequences by late March, but the proportion dropped in April. B.1.617.1 is known as the "Indian double mutant," although this label is misleading because it has about 15 mutations when compared to older variants." The term "double mutant" refers to the presence of two mutations in the outer spike protein of the bacterium.

A Comprehensive review on COVID-19 Variant: Delta plus and Omicron Variant

The Delta plus variant, often known as the K417N mutation and B.1.1.529 is known as Omicron, K417N was initially discovered in India in April 2021 and was first announced in the public health England bulletin on June 11th 2021, and the report was released in order to continue sharing detailed Delta surveillance information (VOC-21APR-02, B.1.617.2). On November the 1st Omicron case was reported by South Africa. Delta plus has also been discovered in nine other nations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Switzerland, Japan, Poland, Nepal, Russia, and China. Delta plus may have a modest advantage in infecting and propagating among those who have already been infected. The Indian variety of SARS CoV-2, also known as B.1.617, is a Coronavirus variant that had a key role in India's second wave of infection. B.1.617 has three noteworthy sub-variants. B.1.617.2, which was detected in India in December 2020, is the most concerning. In December 2020, a new sub-variant known as B.1.617.1 was discovered for the first time in India. B.1.617.1 was found in 50% of all reported sequences by late March, but the proportion dropped in April. B.1.617.1 is known as the "Indian double mutant," although this label is misleading because it has about 15 mutations when compared to older variants." The term "double mutant" refers to the presence of two mutations in the outer spike protein of the bacterium. Omicron is the 3rd wave of mutated variant stated by W.H.O during November.

A Critical Discourse Analysis of Intergroup Interpretations and Representations of Ideologies and National Identities in Sino-US News Reports of Russia-Ukraine Affair

This study applies critical discourse analysis (CDA) and linguistic intergroup bias (LIB) theory to conduct a comparison of reports related to the Russia-Ukraine incident by Chinese media CGTN and US media CNN from late February to late March 2022. By analyzing their linguistic features and the intergroup psychological characteristics they project, the study explores the national identity embodied in these features, as well as the underlying ideological meaning and the power relations between different countries implied behind it. The results of the analysis show that: 1) discursive strategies are adopted by the newspapers to construct national identity and intergroup relations, including the discursive categorization of group identity and intragroup identity, and the discursive re-categorization of intergroup relations, 2) the similarities and differences in discursive strategies made by the Chinese and American media, 3) different ideologies and power relations reflected by these discursive strategies and the phenomenon of linguistic intergroup bias.

The Grandmothers of Shaheen Bagh: An Indian Muslim Women’s Protest and the Future of Satyagraha

Abstract The Indian dadis (grandmothers) of Shaheen Bagh, over the space of less than four months from mid-December 2019 to late March 2020, offered a palpable demonstration that the spirit of satyagraha (nonviolent resistance) cannot be extinguished. Indeed, as I shall suggest, the short-lived Shaheen Bagh movement cannot be seen other than as a momentous event in the global history of nonviolent resistance and as quite likely the most promising step in the further evolution of satyagraha. Shaheen Bagh may even have presaged the extraordinary upheaval taking place in Iran where, once again, it is women—most of them young enough to be the grand-daughters of the dadis whose offering of satyagraha convulsed India for a short time—who have shown the way to exercise nonviolent resistance to a regime that has shown no hesitation in the brutal repression of dissent.

Forecasting Equatorial Ionospheric Convective Instability With ICON Satellite Measurements

AbstractMeasurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial F region ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed.