Larval Dispersal Research Articles

Changes in microbiome composition during ontogeny and dispersal of the coral boring sponge Thoosa mismalolli

Dispersal is an important life history trait that plays a key role in the demography and evolution of species. We employed a combined approach of DNA sequencing and transmission electron microscopy to examine the changes in the microbiome during the ontogeny and dispersal of the coral-excavating sponge Thoosa mismalolli. The results show that sponge can acquired their associated bacteria via both vertical (VT) and horizontal transmission (HT). Adult sponges, brooding larvae, and early free-swimming sponge larvae harbor a similar high-diversity microbial assemblage, dominated by Proteobacteria and Chloroflexi, which change throughout the larval dispersal phase. Larvae collected offshore showed a reorganization of their microbiome with a significant reduction of the dominance of inherited bacteria (Proteobacteria and Chloroflexi), and an enrichment of environmentally derived bacteria taxa (Bacteroidetes, Tenericutes, and Firmicutes). TEM confirmed a substantial change in cell structure and microbial composition, attributed to symbionts’ massive phagocytosis. This research provides information on microbiome dynamics through the sponge ontogeny and sheds on their possible role in the dispersal capacity of their larvae.

Inter‐population variations of saccular otolith of Walton's mudskipper (Periophthalmus waltoni) of the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

AbstractUnderstanding population structure is crucial for predicting species' responses to environmental change and elucidating evolutionary history. This study investigated the population structure of Periophthalmus waltoni in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman using landmark‐based geometric morphometrics (GMM) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) methods on sagittal otoliths. The objectives were to (i) examine otolith shape variation across different populations and (ii) compare GMM and DWT methods for resolving population differences. Both methods distinguished populations based on general otolith shape, with DWT revealing finer details due to its high accuracy in detecting otolith margins. Interestingly, populations from Sistan‐Baluchestan and Hormozgan, despite geographical separation, showed minimal variation in shape, suggesting environmental factors may influence otolith morphology. Distinct otolith shapes in the Khuzestan population, likely due to geographic isolation, may be influenced by the mangrove forests near Qeshm Island acting as barriers to larval dispersal. This aligns with molecular data and indicates that the relatively young eastern Persian Gulf may also contribute to these differences. Our findings revealed distinct geographical patterns in otolith shape, highlighting the influence of local environmental factors and larval dispersal on population differentiation. These results provide valuable insights into P. waltoni's population structure and evolutionary history, advancing our understanding of its adaptation to the diverse environmental conditions of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea.

Meta-Analysis of Larval Bivalve Growth in Response to Ocean Acidification and its Application to Sea Scallop Larval Dispersal in the Mid-Atlantic Bight

Ocean acidification, caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and coastal physical, biological, and chemical processes, is an ongoing threat to carbonate-utilizing organisms living in productive coastal shelves. Bivalves exposed to acidification have shown reduced growth, reproduction, and metabolic processes, with larval stages exhibiting the greatest susceptibility. Here, we compile results from published studies on larval bivalve growth responses to acidification to estimate a relationship between larval growth and seawater aragonite saturation state. We then apply this relationship to a larval dispersal individual-based model for Atlantic sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus), an economically vital species in the Mid-Atlantic Bight that is historically under-studied in acidification research. To date, there have been no published studies on sea scallop larval response to ocean acidification. Model simulations allowed the identification of potential impacts of acidification on scallop success in the region. Results show that larval sea scallops that are sensitive to ocean acidification had a 17% lower settlement success rate and over 50% reduction in larval passage between major Mid Atlantic Bight fisheries habitats than those that are not sensitive to acidification. Additionally, temperature and ocean acidification interact as drivers of larval success, with aragonite saturation states > 3.0 compensating for temperature-induced mortality (> 19 ˚C) in some cases. This balance between drivers influences larval settlement success across spatial and interannual scales in the Mid Atlantic Bight.

Trophic Structure and Isotopic Niche of Invaded Benthic Communities on Tropical Rocky Shores.

When a species is introduced in a new location, it is common for it to establish itself when it finds favorable conditions in the receptor community with regard to interspecific interactions with native species. The azooxanthellate corals Tubastraea coccinea and Tubastraea tagusensis are invasive species introduced in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Brazilian Southwest Atlantic. They are successful competitors for space, have multiple reproductive modes, and have high larval dispersion and recruitment, but studies on food and trophic relationships of the genus Tubastraea are still scarce. In the present study, we used isotopic values of δ13C and δ15N to investigate trophic relationships in rocky shore communities invaded by T. tagusensis and T. coccinea corals under different oceanographic and anthropogenic contexts. Using metrics derived from the isotopic values, we show that invaded communities have a lower degree of trophic diversity, with species characterized by similar trophic ecologies while abiotic factors seem to contribute to the biotic resistance of communities exposed to invasion events. Tubastraea spp. occupy a niche space similar to that occupied by the native community of suspension feeders, sharing resources already consumed by the receptor community, which makes invading corals successful competitors for food.

Connectivity of scamp Mycteroperca phenax populations in the United States Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean

Connectivity among marine fish populations not only arises through the movement of adults but also through larval dispersal facilitated by ocean currents. For species with long pelagic larval duration and high site fidelity as adults, larval dispersal can be the dominant mechanism of connectivity among otherwise spatially distinct populations. Therefore, when assessing the recruitment dynamics or population structure of such species, it is essential to evaluate how larval biology and reproductive ecology interact with oceanographic circulation. To investigate this interaction for scamp Mycteroperca phenax, a grouper found in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, we simulated the dispersal of millions of virtual larvae throughout the scamp’s range near the southeastern USA. We found a pattern of local retention, with larvae tending to settle close to their spawning location. There was also, however, long-distance dispersal that consistently crossed the boundary between spatial management units. Due to directional patterns in oceanographic transport and spatial differences in abundance, almost one-third of the virtual larvae that settled in the Atlantic came from spawning locations in the Gulf of Mexico, although most of these settled near the boundary between the regions. These patterns were robust to a variety of sensitivity analyses, but the magnitude of connectivity between management units varied. This connectivity has significant implications for stock assessment and fishery management. It may increase the resilience of Atlantic populations, but it also means that the sustainability of Atlantic populations may rely, in part, on the health of spawning populations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Larval dispersal predictions are highly sensitive to hydrodynamic modelling choices

AbstractLarval dispersal is a critical ecological process in marine ecosystems, responsible for connecting and replenishing populations in patchy habitat. Because empirical measurements of larval dispersal are very challenging, coupled biological and oceanographic simulations (“biophysical models”) of larval dispersal are commonly used to answer ecological questions and support conservation management decisions. In the process of creating biophysical models, a series of choices must be made that do not have a single correct answer—sometimes because the oceanographic or ecological processes are uncertain; sometimes because trade-offs are required between different goals (e.g. computational time versus spatial resolution). In this paper, we demonstrate that larval dispersal estimates at management scales are strongly affected by these choices. Using three different hydrodynamic models of the Great Barrier Reef, we estimated the dispersal of crown-of-thorns starfish larvae in the spawning seasons between 2018 and 2021. Despite sharing similar physical forcings and using similar models of larval behaviour, we find that the different hydrodynamic models produce divergent predictions of larval dispersal between the reefs. If used to support crown-of-thorns starfish control decisions, these different predictions would recommend different priority reefs. Our results caution against the use of single models of larval dispersal, and suggest that multi-model ensembles may offer a valuable new perspective on dispersal patterns in marine environments.

Genetic Diversity and Structure of the Darkfin hind (Cephalopholis urodeta) in the Spratly Islands, Vietnam

The darkfin hind, Cephalopholis urodeta, is a commercially valuable reef fish species inhabiting the ecologically important Spratly Islands. Understanding this species’ genetic diversity and population structure is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies, particularly given the increasing pressures on coral reef ecosystems. This study investigated the genetic diversity and population structure of C. urodeta within the Spratly archipelago using mitochondrial COI and Cyt b gene markers. We analyzed 30 individuals for COI and Cyt b, revealing high levels of haplotype diversity (Hd=0.9563±0.0226 for COI; Hd=0.9402±0.0229 for Cyt b). However, despite this high overall diversity, our analyses also revealed significant genetic structuring within the archipelago, suggesting restricted gene flow among some populations. This structuring is likely influenced by the complex oceanographic currents in the region and the spatial distance between reefs, which can limit larval dispersal. These findings highlight the need for spatially explicit conservation and management strategies for C. urodeta in the Spratly Islands. Recognizing the genetic differentiation within the archipelago and implementing management measures tailored to specific zones will be crucial for preserving genetic diversity, maintaining connectivity, and ensuring the long-term sustainability of this important resource.

Multigenerational hybridisation results in heterosis and facilitates adaptive introgression, with no evidence of outbreeding depression in a pair of marine gastropods.

Anthropogenic environmental changes continue to threaten species globally. For example, translocation of species has caused unintentional hybridisation, which has contributed to species declines. On the other hand, hybridisation can be used to increase the evolutionary potential of species vulnerable to rapid environmental change, although the benefits of mixing genetically divergent lineages do not come without risks to individual fitness and the long-term viability of populations. Here, we use a combination of genome-wide Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) markers, mitochondrial DNA sequencing and measurements of growth rate to determine the genetic consequences of hybridisation between two congeneric marine gastropods across 27 years (~18 generations). Multigeneration hybridisation resulted from the introduction of the intertidal periwinkle Bembicium vittatum (a direct developer) into the native range of its congener Bembicium auratum (a species with planktotrophic larval dispersal). Despite significant genetic divergence between the species, we found no direct evidence of outbreeding depression in the admixed population. Instead, we found evidence for heterosis, which dissipated over time. After an initial lag, the frequency of introduced B. vittatum alleles declined dramatically in the hybrid population. However, a few B. vittatum alleles (3.18%) increased significantly in frequency against the overall trend, providing evidence of adaptive introgression. In the context of hybridisation as a conservation management tool, our results provide some evidence of the potential benefits that can be gained, and suggest that the costs due to outbreeding depression can be small.

Interannual early life history variation and larval dispersal of three tropical anguillid eel species recruiting in French Polynesia

Interannual early life history variation and larval dispersal of three tropical anguillid eel species recruiting in French Polynesia

Host plant phenology drives risky larval dispersal in an outbreaking insect defoliator

Abstract Dispersal away from natal sites allows individuals to find suitable foraging sites to complete their development and successfully reproduce. Drivers of risky dispersal behaviour in forest landscapes by young larvae of outbreaking defoliators are not well understood. We assessed dispersal behaviour of young spruce budworm larvae in relation to spring budburst phenology of primary and secondary hosts, balsam fir and black spruce, respectively. We tested whether tree species and presence of suitable feeding sites influenced dispersal away from source branches and subsequent redistribution of insects. Laboratory experiments showed that dispersal is an active behaviour during which larvae disperse away from source trees without open buds, regardless of species. Establishment on sink branches was highest when they possessed open buds and the source did not. In the field, larval dispersal was higher from black spruce than from balsam fir and larval establishment was more persistent on balsam fir. The decision to disperse occurs before budburst of either host species. Larvae disperse preferentially away from black spruce whose old needles are too tough for larval mining, compared to balsam fir that can be mined for sustenance and refuge while larvae await budburst. While black spruce is a suitable host species after its buds expand, phenological defences drive larval dispersal away from this host plant. These findings are the first to show how risky dispersal behaviour in larval Lepidoptera is facultative and is determined by local food availability.

When does spillover from marine protected areas indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch?

Spillover is a term commonly applied to the dispersal of fish and/or larvae from inside a closed area to areas open to fishing. The presence of spillover is often quantified by measuring gradients in attributes such as abundance or catch rates near the boundaries of closed areas or by measuring higher abundance inside closed areas compared to outside. It is commonly assumed that such gradients or ratios indicate that the closed area has benefitted the fishery and the total abundance of fish. We explore this assumption using a spatially explicit model of closed areas with different intensities of fishing and fish movement, and we find that such gradients will be expected any time there is higher abundance inside the closed area. However, such gradients do not necessarily indicate a benefit to the fishery either in terms of total catch or catch rate, and unless pre-closure fishing was intense, total abundance is not expected to rise significantly. We examine case studies that argue that spillover exists and leads to fishery benefits. We then evaluate the evidence for net benefits in these case studies and find those with evidence of net benefits all come from places where fishing pressure was intense. While most analysis come from quite small coastal closed areas, two studies of very large open-ocean closed areas are discussed, and we find that both suggest little overall impact on the tuna populations that support the main commercial fisheries affected by the closures in question.

Population genetics of Macrognathus siamensis (Synbranchiformes: Mastacembelidae): Implications for non-migratory fishery resources in the Mekong River basin

The spotted spiny eel, Macrognathus siamensis is an economically important freshwater fish in the Mekong River basin, which is undergoing dramatic biodiversity changes due to anthropogenic impacts. The species is non-migratory, with a moderate larval duration that facilitates downstream genetic connectivity. Restriction site-associated DNA sequence datasets that includes 3736 and 1244 single nucleotide polymorphisms representing putatively neutral loci, from all geographic sites and without the Tachileik site, indicate strong population structure in this sedentary fish, with a significant isolation-by-distance signature. This structure reflects isolation of tributary populations and downstream dispersal of these distinct populations to mix in the Mekong mainstem and contributes to increased genetic diversity in the lower reaches of the Mekong basin. Genetic data indicates that the dispersal of eggs and larvae downstream is not impeded by Khone Falls and that the falls prevent upstream dispersal of eggs and larvae. Despite this downstream connectivity, there is a strong population structure among above- and below-Khone Falls groups. An analysis of outlier loci putatively under selection provides evidence that the difference between connected metapopulations above and below the falls is due to the fundamental differences in environmental regimes. We hypothesize that instead of a physical barrier, the falls simply represents a demarcation between previously recognized upstream limited-floodplain environments and downstream extensive-floodplain environments. These findings emphasize the need to monitor genetic diversity of key sedentary fishery species to assess whether proposed dams along the river could affect genetic diversity downstream. This genetic diversity is particularly important for the resilience of downstream populations because of the many environmental impacts caused by dams, land use, and climate change. Early detection of reduced downstream genetic diversity could trigger remediation programs to ensure resilience and continued fisheries productivity of important non-migratory fish resources.

Implications of spawning migration patterns of the giant mud crab Scylla serrata (Forskål, 1775) on opportunities for larval dispersal

Connectivity is an essential driver for aquatic species distribution, genetic variability and stock structure. The giant mud crab (Scylla serrata) is a coastal portunid commonly associated with estuaries and mangrove systems. This species has been observed to undertake a seaward spawning migration, as the larval development is known to be more successful under the stable environmental conditions typically found in marine waters. The larvae return to the coastal areas through advection, where they are recruited and enter the estuaries after metamorphosing into the first instar. Here, we used numerical modelling to test hypotheses regarding probabilities of larval settlement of the giant mud crab and the effect of the distance offshore from which females release the eggs. Our scenarios considered the biological characteristics of larvae and oceanographic conditions for six locations for mud crabs along a complex coastline - the Queensland east coast, Australia. The models suggest that all locations tend to self-supply, and to exchange mud crab larvae with other regions, but in different magnitudes. The spawning distance offshore considerably affects larval distribution and settlement. The main drivers for larval advection in areas within the continental shelf are wind patterns and coastal currents, while offshore along the Australian continental slope, the main drivers are ocean currents. Self-recruitment is predominant, although we also observed a significant degree of connectivity between each location and the surrounding coastline. Short spawning migrations benefit self-recruitment in all scenarios, but long offshore migrations favour connectivity among different locations. This source/sink balance seems to depend on the local oceanographic features. Nevertheless, offshore spawning by the giant mud crab has the potential to provide for successful recruitment in a variety of environmental contexts. This study provides novel predictions of the probabilities of larval settlement for mud crab populations considering ocean advection that can be applied to different contexts.

Larval Transport Pathways for Lutjanus peru and Lutjanus argentiventris in the Northwestern Mexico and Tropical Eastern Pacific

Understanding how ocean currents influence larval dispersal and measuring its magnitude is critical for conservation and sustainable exploitation, especially in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP), where the larval transport of rocky reef fish remains untested. For this reason, a lagrangian simulation model was implemented to estimate larval transport pathways in Northwestern Mexico and TEP. Particle trajectories were simulated with data from the Hybrid Ocean Coordinate Model, focusing on three simulation scenarios: (1) using the occurrence records of Lutjanus peru and L. argentiventris as release sites; (2) considering a continuous distribution along the study area, and (3) taking the reproduction seasonality into account in both species. It was found that the continuous distribution scenario largely explained the genetic structure previously found in both species (genetic brakes between central and southern Mexico and Central America), confirming that the ocean currents play a significant role as predictors of genetic differentiation and gene flow in Northwestern Mexico and the TEP. Due to the oceanography of the area, the southern localities supply larvae from the northern localities; therefore, disturbances in any southern localities could affect the surrounding areas and have impacts that spread beyond their political boundaries.

Migratory life cycle of Anguilla anguilla: a mirror symmetry with A. japonica.

The European and Japanese eel populations have declined significantly in recent decades. To effectively manage and conserve them, gaining a better understanding of their migratory life cycles is important. Previous research on the spawning ecology and larval dispersal of European and Japanese eels has led to many significant discoveries and advancements for their migratory life cycles. However, different scholars hold varying views on their migratory life cycles, especially concerning the European eel, therefore this article aims to provide a comprehensive review of research from multiple disciplines concerning the spawning ecology and larval dispersal of European and Japanese eels and to propose migratory life cycles of these two species. The migratory life cycle of the European eel is as follows: European silver eels undertake a year-long spawning migration from September to January to reach the Sargasso Sea for spawning before the next spawning season, typically between December and May. After hatching, European eel leptocephali are transported by the Gulf Stream, Frontal Countercurrents, North Atlantic Current, and Azores Current and return to Europe and North Africa for growth. Recruitment of European glass eels mainly occurs between October and June of the following year, and the recruiting season is more concentrated in countries closer to the spawning area and more dispersed in countries farther away. The consistent recruitment pattern and the growth rate of leptocephali suggest a larval transport period, also called larval duration, of around 1 year. Understanding the migratory life cycle of European eels can facilitate the evaluation or development of their conservation measures.

Larval dispersal and physical connectivity of Pheronema carpenteri populations in the Azores

The study of larval dispersal and connectivity between deep-sea populations is essential for the effective conservation and management of deep-sea environments and the design and implementation of Marine Protected Areas. Dense sponge aggregations, known as “sponge grounds”, are a key component of marine benthic ecosystems, by increasing the structural complexity of the sea floor and providing structure and habitat for many other species. These aggregations are characteristic of the Azores deep-sea environment. These sessile organisms rely primarily on larval dispersal for their reproduction. Connectivity between specific Pheronema carpenteri sponge aggregations in the Azores was studied using a 3-D biophysical dispersal model. Different biological trait scenarios were analyzed, considering spawning seasonality and pelagic larval duration. Model results indicate that regional circulation patterns drive larval dispersion, shaping population connectivity of P. carpenteri sponge aggregations in the Azores, particularly among aggregations in the Central Group of Azorean islands. Some areas present high retention rates, receiving larvae from several sponge aggregations while also being important larval source aggregations. In contrast, aggregations from the Eastern Group may be isolated from the others. Larval dispersal and connectivity patterns were analyzed concerning the current configuration of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in the Azores. The results underscored the importance of maintaining protection efforts in existing MPAs and identified stepping-stone locations and specific sites where additional measures could enhance species connectivity in the Azores.

Animal life in the shallow subseafloor crust at deep-sea hydrothermal vents

It was once believed that only microbes and viruses inhabited the subseafloor crust beneath hydrothermal vents. Yet, on the seafloor, animals like the giant tubeworm Riftia pachyptila thrive. Their larvae are thought to disperse in the water column, despite never being observed there. We hypothesized that these larvae travel through the subseafloor via vent fluids. In our exploration, lifting lobate lava shelves revealed adult tubeworms and other vent animals in subseafloor cavities. The discovery of vent endemic animals below the visible seafloor shows that the seafloor and subseafloor faunal communities are connected. The presence of adult tubeworms suggests larval dispersal through the recharge zone of the hydrothermal circulation system. Given that many of these animals are host to dense bacterial communities that oxidize reduced chemicals and fix carbon, the extension of animal habitats into the subseafloor has implications for local and regional geochemical flux measurements. These findings underscore the need for protecting vents, as the extent of these habitats has yet to be fully ascertained.

Advances in understanding physical and biological controls on eggs and larval distribution in Pacific fisheries: A review

The early stages of fish, comprising eggs and larvae, are exceptionally fragile and sensitive to environmental dynamics and climate change. Pacific Ocean (PO) currents play an important role in shaping the distribution of marine organisms, influencing global climate patterns, heat distribution, coastal temperatures, and nutrient redistribution. These currents reveal significant changes within the climate system. Their variability across different timescales can be attributed to the complex interplay of physical forces. These currents are subjected to diverse anthropogenic factors, exerting detrimental effects on the dispersal of fish larvae. Furthermore, climate change variables, including alterations in tropical PO temperature associated with the ENSO cycle, Atlantic Nino modes influencing equatorial Atlantic temperature, changes in ocean salinity, polar ice cap melting, increasing greenhouse gases, marine heatwaves, and fluctuations in subsurface flows, directly impact the distribution, abundance, and species composition of early life stages. Major Pacific fisheries, such as those targeting Pacific sardines, saury, and anchovies, undergo population booms and declines due to significant alterations in the current dynamics of currents and fronts within the PO. The anticipated intensification of the ENSO cycle, characterized by more frequent and severe El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cold) events as a result of climate change, is expected to significantly impact the early developmental stages of important commercial fish stocks regularly. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the physical and biological parameters driving changes in ocean currents and their implications for early fish dispersion, emphasizing the critical need for research in this area to inform global conservation efforts, fisheries management, and food security.

Mesoscale ocean eddies determine dispersal and connectivity of corals at the RMS Titanic wreck site

The sinking of the RMS Titanic on 15 April 1912 remains one of most iconic maritime disasters in history. Today, the wreck site lies in waters 3800 m deep approximately 690 km south southeast of Newfoundland, Atlantic Canada. The wreck and debris field have been colonized by many marine organisms including the octocoral Chrysogorgia agassizii. Because of the rapid deterioration of the Titanic and the vulnerability of natural deep-sea coral populations to environmental changes, it is vital to understand the role the Titanic as well as other such structures could play in connecting ecosystems along the North American slope. Based on Lagrangian experiments with more than one million virtual particles and different scenarios for larval behavior, given the uncertainties around the biology of chrysogorgiids, the dispersal of larvae spawned at the Titanic wreck is studied in a high-resolution numerical ocean model. While the large-scale bathymetry shields the Titanic from a strong mean flow, mesoscale ocean eddies can considerably affect the deep circulation and cause a significant speed up, or also a reversal, of the circulation. As a consequence, the position of upper and mid-ocean eddies in the model largely controls the direction and distance of larval dispersal, with the impact of eddies outweighing the importance of active larval swimming in our experiments. Although dependent on larval buoyancy and longevity, we find that the Titanic could be reached by larvae spawned on the upper slope east of the Grand Banks. Therefore, the Titanic could act as a stepping stone connecting the upper to the deep continental slope off Newfoundland. From the Titanic, larvae then spread into deep Canadian waters and areas beyond national jurisdiction.

The contribution of nearshore oceanography to temporal variation in larval dispersal.

Patterns of population connectivity shape ecological and evolutionary phenomena from population persistence to local adaptation and can inform conservation strategy. Connectivity patterns emerge from the interaction of individual behavior with a complex and heterogeneous environment. Despite ample observation that dispersal patterns vary through time, the extent to which variation in the physical environment can explain emergent connectivity variation is not clear. Empirical studies of its contribution promise to illuminate a potential source of variability that shapes the dynamics of natural populations. We leveraged simultaneous direct dispersal observations and oceanographic transport simulations of the clownfish Amphiprion clarkii in the Camotes Sea, Philippines, to assess the contribution of oceanographic variability to emergent variation in connectivity. We found that time-varying oceanographic simulations on both annual and monsoonal timescales partly explained the observed dispersal patterns, suggesting that temporal variation in oceanographic transport shapes connectivity variation on these timescales. However, interannual variation in observed mean dispersal distance was nearly 10 times the expected variation from biophysical simulations, revealing that additional biotic and abiotic factors contribute to interannual connectivity variation. Simulated dispersal kernels also predicted a smaller scale of dispersal than the observations, supporting the hypothesis that undocumented abiotic factors and behaviors such as swimming and navigation enhance the probability of successful dispersal away from, as opposed to retention near, natal sites. Our findings highlight the potential for coincident observations and biophysical simulations to test dispersal hypotheses and the influence of temporal variability on metapopulation persistence, local adaptation, and other population processes.