Large Urban Centers Research Articles

Impacts of COVID-19 on Public Universities in Brazil: A Machine Learning Counterfactual Analysis

This study delves into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the enrollment rates of on-site undergraduate programs within Brazilian public universities. Employing the Machine Learning Control Method, a counterfactual scenario was constructed in which the pandemic did not occur. By contrasting this hypothetical scenario with real-world data on new entrants, a variable was defined to characterize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on on-site undergraduate programs at Brazilian public universities. This variable reveals that the impact factor varies significantly when considering the geographical locations of the institutions offering these courses. Courses offered by institutions located in smaller population cities experienced a more pronounced impact compared to those situated in larger urban centers.

Education Performance of Czech Public Higher Education Institutions Using Data Envelopment and Panel Regression Analysis

The priority goals of the development of Czech higher education include ensuring the quality of its activities, improving the availability and relevance of flexible forms of education, and increasing efficiency in teaching and research. Several professional articles evaluated educational efficiency, but the proposed models did not include unemployed graduate students. The paper assesses education efficiency at public universities in the Czech Republic in 2020-2021 using an extended Data envelopment model with undesirable outputs, non-proportional and non-radial measures of distance from the efficient frontier. The influence of selected economic, social, regional and institutional factors on education efficiency is estimated by a panel regression model using the Feasible generalized least squares method. The results document the level and development of education efficiency and find insufficient reduction of unemployed graduates as a critical problem of inefficiency. More prominent universities achieve higher education efficiency. The main statistically significant factors influencing changes in education efficiency are population density, the unemployment rate, the location of the university in larger urban centres and the number of students per university employee.

Evolution of Water Quality in the Una-PE River Basin

The quality of aquatic ecosystems is a concern for society, since the interference of water bodies has been notorious, especially those that border large urban centers. Therefore, several parameters have been used to monitor water quality. In this way, the objective was to evaluate the quality of the waters of the Una River basin, Pernambuco, between the years 2001 and 2019. To this end, the values of water temperature (T), hydrogen potential (pH), dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), electrical conductivity (EC), total amount of phosphorus, turbidity and total rainfall volume, available in water quality monitoring reports from river basins from the state of Pernambuco. It can be seen that none of the verified variables showed normal behavior for the trained period. In this way, the tests proposed by Kruskal-Wallis and Nemenyi were used to evaluate the behavior of each parameter. The high values of T, EC, BOD, phosphorus concentrations and turbidity, together with the low DO values found at various times during the years analyzed, indicate an intrusion of sewage (domestic and/or industrial) into the aquatic ecosystem. After a statistical analysis of the indicators, it was concluded that it was not possible to identify improvements in the quality of water in the Una-PE River basin over the last 15 years.

Global Stability Study of a Reinforced Concrete Building: Comparison between Grid and Space Frame Model with an Integrated Model

The verticalization in large urban centers has provided a series of new challenges for large buildings designers. The slender the structures are, more susceptible they are to second-order global efforts, making its verification indispensable for any reinforced concrete structure. As allies, technological advances and the processing power of computer systems have enabled greater productivity in the verification of the global stability of large buildings. Over the years, several structural models have been implemented in structural analysis and design, aiming to better simulate the actual behavior of structures. In view of this, the present work aims to perform a comparative analysis of the global stability of a reinforced concrete building, using the grid models associated with the space frame and the integrated model. Moreover, the research aims to verify the importance of the structural elements in the global stability of the building. In study two different structural systems were employed for the same building, verifying through the TQS software the conception that presents the best behavior according to the model used. Based on the results obtained, some guidelines are proposed regarding the use of structural models, indicating which one presents the best behavior according to the characteristics of the building.

Identification of the Safe Variation Limits for the Optimization of the Measurements in Low-Cost Electrochemical Air Quality Sensors

Nowadays, the study of air quality has become an increasingly prominent field of research, particularly in large urban centers, given its significant impact on human health. In many countries, government departments and research centers use official high-cost scientific instruments to monitor air quality in their regions. Meanwhile, concerned citizens interested in studying the air quality of their local areas often employ low-cost air quality sensors for monitoring purposes. The optimization and evaluation of low-cost sensors have been a field of research by many research groups. This paper presents an extensive study to identify the safe percentage change limits that low-cost electrochemical air quality sensors can have, in order to optimize their measurements. For this work, three low-cost air quality monitoring stations were used, which include an electrochemical sensor for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (Alphasense NO2-B43F) and an electrochemical sensor for ozone (O3) (Alphasense OX-B431). The aim of this work is to explore the variance of the aforementioned sensors and how this variability can be used to optimize the measurements of low-cost electrochemical sensors, closer to real ones. The analysis is conducted by employing diagrams, boxplot and violin curves of the groups of sensors used, with satisfactory results.

The impact of demographic changes in Poland on the development of the aesthetic medicine market

The phenomenon of an "aging Polish society" is a multi‑faceted problem which includes, among others, an increase in average life expectancy, an increased proportion of older people in the population, as well as migration to large cities. These changes, which have been taking place for many years, have impacted the development of the aesthetic medicine market. Through analyzing the general population demographics against the demographics of the aesthetic medicine market, we believe that in the coming years there will be an increased demand for aesthetic treatments in people over 50 years of age, especially in offices located in large urban centers.

Pandemic, Imagination, and the Rise of the Animal Kingdom

The worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 caused most countries to declare a national lockdown during the spring of 2020 to avoid the further spread of infection. By the end of April of that year, most large urban centers in the world faced empty streets, closed businesses, and an eerie absence of their human population. During the lockdown, a new legend emerged, largely popularized by the media and different social networks: around the world, wildlife was repopulating and reclaiming the urban space once occupied by humans. This article addresses wildlife tales that appeared in the media during the first major lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020. I argue that these stories share narrative patterns with other catastrophe tales, that they were created as a vernacular mechanism to cope with confinement, and that they were also a creative manifestation of human hope for a better post-pandemic world.

The Role of Business Incubators in Local Economic Development

This paper aims to (i) understand the functioning and importance of incubators in supporting the creation of new business and local economic development, as they help locally engage young entrepreneurs and thus retain expertise, for example in regions farthest from large urban centers; (ii) realize the importance of incubators and science parks in the development of start-ups; (iii) understand the role of education in promoting entrepreneurship; and (iv) understand the competitive environment as it becomes more complex and dynamic, as there are opportunities to serve customers who are dissatisfied, thus the threats that large companies experience offer small business opportunities.

Trends in "vision management" by area based management organizations in large urban centers.

Trends in "vision management" by area based management organizations in large urban centers.

After the pandemic: Contemplating the future of central office buildings

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically changed the nature of office work. The main driver is remote work, a concept theorised for years, but upon its arrival has become a significant disruptor of commercial real estate. Buildings and the city cores they occupy in large urban centres have hollowed out. Large organisations, still tied to long-term leases, try shedding space to adapt. As they do, cities reliant on property tax revenues find themselves at odds with institutional landlords over asset values. The upheavals unfolding in the industry, particularly in the office sector, are enough for prominent media organisations to declare downtown office buildings dead. But are they? By analysing quantitative and qualitative data and evidence from high-profile organisations, it becomes apparent that although building occupancy may not be what it was prior to the pandemic, indicators point to a macroeconomic reset where the steady rise in occupancy will establish a new equilibrium, probably not too different from what it looked like pre-pandemic. Along the way, a new industry metric, the Idle Space Index (ISI) is introduced to define an interrelationship between occupancy and vacancy rates, which can greatly assist strategic space planning. In the medium term, chaos will reign supreme, as corporate real estate (CRE) executives try to engage in longer-term planning. Building assessments will remain a contentious issue until that new equilibrium is established, but for an industry described as being on its last legs, it seems there is plenty of life left.

Budownictwo mieszkaniowe w województwie pomorskim w dwudziestoleciu międzywojennym (na tle ogólnopolskim)

The article characterises selected aspects of Poland’s housing situation during the interwar period, particularly in the Pomeranian Voivodeship, which was actually annexed to Poland in 1920. The largest urban centres were Toruń and Grudziądz for the first decade, with Gdynia coming to the fore in the 1930s. In 1938, the area of the voivodeship was significantly enlarged and its borders included, among others, Toruń. Bydgoszcz, as the largest city in the region, was added to the voivodeship, and the article made limited mention of the housing situation in this city. Most attention was devoted to the analysis of statistical data from from the two Polish censuses, including the housing situation, which were conducted in September 1921 and December 1931. For Pomerania, reference was also made to data from the German census of May 1918. Full data from the Polish censuses, including those for the area of Pomeranian Voivodeship, were published between 1927 and 1938. They made it possible to indicate that, against the national background, the situation of Pomeranian Voivodeship was one of the best in the whole of Poland. This was evidenced by a small group of the tightest single-room flats, as well as a very high index of good technical equipment of flats. Most had gas, electricity, sewerage and water supply. In the former Russian and Austrian occupied territories it was exactly the opposite. The towns there were much tighter and their technical equipment extremely modest. Despite the relatively good housing situation in the Pomeranian Voivodeship, social tensions also occurred in this area. There were social tensions over the housing situation. Above all, this concerned the lack of housing. In quantitative terms, this was not as acute as in Warsaw, Łódź or Lwów, for example, but it was also perceptible. The problem affected mainly cities, even not very large ones such as Chełmno or Chojnice. However, it was most acute in large centres such as Toruń or Grudziądz, and from 1938 Bydgoszcz, where the number of people without housing, nestling in makeshift conditions reached up to several thousand. The most difficult situation arose in Gdynia, as the extremely dynamic port city, with its increasingly strong industrial base and with a large number of jobs, could not keep up with the construction of housing infrastructure. The number of genuinely homeless people condemned to live in slums was reaching even over 20,000.

Abstract A130: Stakeholder perspectives of the multi-level barriers to treatment among rural endometrial cancer patients: A qualitative study

Abstract Purpose. Rural individuals with endometrial cancer (EC) have an 8-17% higher mortality risk than their urban counterparts. EC patients have distinct needs, such as requiring treatment to be directed by gynecologic oncologists who are often located in urban areas or at academic medical centers. Our objective was to identify barriers to treatment of rural EC patients. Methods. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 25 providers (e.g. gynecologic oncologists, nurses, pharmacists), and healthcare administrators who provided services to EC patients. Participants represented three large and geographically-diverse, integrated healthcare systems located across North Carolina. A semi-structured interview guide was developed to examine the treatment process and then probe on multi-level barriers to treatment. Initial codes were derived from an adapted multi-level conceptual framework of rural cancer control. We used template analysis to analyze transcribed interviews. Results. The majority of interview participants were gynecologic oncologists (n=7) and nurses (n=7). Participants highlighted barriers at multiple levels, including the patient-, provider/clinic-, and community-levels. At the patient-level, common barriers included patients’ anxiety and fears about undergoing treatment as well as patients’ low medical literacy. Patients without a support network or caregiver often encountered logistical problems when it came to traveling and planning their treatment; in some cases, interviewees said patients would have to hire someone to take them to their treatment appointments. At the provider/clinic-levels, interviewees reported that providers were not always made aware of supportive resources, such as gas cards, that were available to patients; this was particularly a problem since, to access these resources, patients often had to be referred by a provider. At the same time, however, providers who were aware of these supportive resources said that only a limited amount was available and insufficient in meeting patients’ needs. Finally, at the community-level, treatment services for patients with gynecologic malignancies were often only available at large urban or academic medical centers; consequently, EC patients frequently faced geographic barriers and had to travel long distances for treatment. This travel burden for treatment created financial hardship for patients, due to the increased temporary housing and travel costs. Furthermore, even if there were oncology-related providers within a patient’s community, most did not have appropriate experience or feel comfortable in treating patients with EC. Among the few community-based oncology-related providers that would treat EC patients, interviewees expressed concerns about the quality of care received by these patients as they could not oversee or direct the patient’s treatment plan. Conclusions. To achieve equitable outcomes among EC patients, those living in rural areas may require more intensive outreach, support, and resources that can effectively target multi-level barriers. Citation Format: Lisa P. Spees, Blen M. Biru, Wendy R. Brewster, Jennifer Leeman, Brianna Taffe, Stephanie B. Wheeler. Stakeholder perspectives of the multi-level barriers to treatment among rural endometrial cancer patients: A qualitative study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 16th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2023 Sep 29-Oct 2;Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2023;32(12 Suppl):Abstract nr A130.

Recent HIV infection and annualized HIV incidence rates among sexual and gender minorities in Brazil and Peru (ImPrEP seroincidence study): a cross-sectional, multicenter study

HIV incidence estimation is critical for monitoring the HIV epidemic dynamics and the effectiveness of public health prevention interventions. We aimed to identify sexual and gender minorities (SGM) with recent HIV infections, factors associated with recent HIV infection, and to estimate annualised HIV incidence rates. Cross-sectional multicentre study in HIV testing services in Brazil and Peru (15 cities). Inclusion criteria: 18+ years, SGM assigned male at birth, not using pre-/post-exposure prophylaxis. We identified recent HIV infection using the Maxim HIV-1 LAg-Avidity EIA assay as part of a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA). Annualized HIV incidence was calculated using the UNAIDS/WHO incidence estimator tool. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate factors associated with recent HIV infection. Trial registration: NCT05674682. From 31-Jan-2021 to 29-May-2022, 6899 individuals participated [Brazil: 4586 (66.5%); Peru: 2313 (33.5%)]; 5946 (86.2%) cisgender men, 751 (10.9%) transgender women and 202 (2.9%) non-binary/gender diverse. Median age was 27 (IQR: 23-34) years. HIV prevalence was 11.4% (N=784/6899); 137 (2.0%) SGM were identified with recent HIV infection. The overall annualized HIV incidence rate was 3.88% (95% CI: 2.86-4.87); Brazil: 2.62% (95% CI: 1.78-3.43); Peru: 6.69% (95% CI: 4.62-8.69). Participants aged 18-24 years had higher odds of recent HIV infection compared to those aged 30+ years in both countries. Our results highlight the significant burden of HIV epidemic among SGM in large urban centres of Brazil and Peru. Public health policies and interventions to increase access to effective HIV prevention methods such as PrEP are urgently needed in Latin America. Unitaid, WHO (Switzerland), Ministry of Health from Brazil and Peru.

Land-Use Regression Analysis of Summer Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations in Ireland

Tropospheric ozone is a powerful oxidant that can damage living organisms; it is widely monitored, as air concentrations have more than doubled since the Industrial Revolution. However, in general air quality monitoring stations are limited spatially to large urban centres; accordingly, accurate prediction of concentrations outside of cities is important for protecting human and plant health. Land-use regression has been successfully used for modelling air pollutant concentrations by establishing a relationship between observed concentrations and landscape features representing sources and sinks. In this study, we developed a land-use regression model that explained 68% of the variance of summer average ozone concentrations in the Republic of Ireland. Ozone was measured at 14 active and 20 passive monitoring sites; air concentrations varied spatially, with the highest ozone measured in rural upland (64.5 µg/m3) and Atlantic coastal (50.2–60.5 µg/m3) sites and the lowest generally in urban centres (38.9–45.7 µg/m3). A total of 74 land-use predictor variables were tested, and their inclusion in the model was based on their impact on the coefficient of determination (R2). The final model included variables linked primarily to deposition processes and included “forest woodland and scrub area” and “distance to coast”. The meteorological variable “rain” and an indicator for NOx emissions “distance to EPA Integrated Pollution Control facilities” were also included in the final model. Our results demonstrate the potential effectiveness of land-use regression modelling in predicting ozone concentrations, at a scale relevant for ecosystem protection.

Internal migration in Chile and mental health in migrant‐sending communities

AbstractEmpirical research on migration has mostly concentrated on its economic impacts, with growing but limited focus on its mental health impacts in migrant‐sending communities. Existing studies mainly concentrate on the mental health of remaining household members, mostly establishing cross‐sectional correlations, with mixed findings depending on individual and contextual characteristics. Studies that address potential endogeneity are few and tend to find no significant causal impact of migration on the mental health of remaining family members. However, migration may affect not only the remaining household members but also the entire sending community by changing its demographic, social and economic composition. The aim of this paper is to analyse the overall impact of migration on the mental health of sending communities, considering both the impact of having a migrant family member and of living in a community experiencing net emigration. The paper addresses potential endogeneity through an instrumental variable approach, controlling for confounding factors and examines mental health outcomes beyond depression and stress, assessing also psychosocial difficulties and self‐efficacy. It uses nationally representative data from the 2017 National Health Survey in Chile, a country characterised by high internal mobility, significant mental health issues and concentration of mental healthcare provision in large urban centres. The study finds that living in net emigration municipalities increases the probability of experiencing a major depressive episode, psychosocial difficulties and low self‐efficacy. Results are robust to controlling for endogeneity using past migration rates as an instrument for current migration rates. These findings suggest that smaller, net emigration communities require policy attention, and in particular better mental healthcare provision, to avoid increasing the prevalence of mental health problems and the treatment gap between larger and smaller communities in Chile.

Increasing multi-hazard climate risk and financial and health impacts on northern homeowners.

Currently, more than half of the world's human population lives in urban areas, which are increasingly affected by climate hazards. Little is known about how multi-hazard environments affect people, especially those living in urban areas in northern latitudes. This study surveyed homeowners in Anchorage and Fairbanks, USA, Alaska's largest urban centers, to measure individual risk perceptions, mitigation response, and damages related to wildfire, surface ice hazards, and permafrost thaw. Up to one third of residents reported being affected by all three hazards, with surface ice hazards being the most widely distributed, related to an estimated $25 million in annual damages. Behavioral risk response, policy recommendations for rapidly changing urban environments, and the challenges to local governments in mitigation efforts are discussed.

Impact of intensive water use from farm dams on the storage dynamics in strategic reservoirs

ABSTRACTThe construction of dams and interbasin water transfers are major strategies to adapt to water scarcity. In the semi-arid Jaguaribe basin, Brazil, large strategic reservoirs supply water for urban centres, while farm dams serve multiple demands of rural communities. We used the Model of Water Availability in SemiArid Environments (WASA) to assess the water storage dynamics of strategic reservoirs impacted by: (i) water withdrawal from farm dams located upstream; (ii) interbasin water transfer to the Jaguaribe basin. Simulations show that intensive water use from smaller reservoirs reduces large reservoir volumes by less than 10%, whereas inflows from the São Francisco Integration Project to the basin can increase by 6% the period of time in which reservoir capacity is above the alert volume. The practice of saving water from small dams can be abandoned, enabling higher agricultural production without compromising the water supply of large urban centres.

A GIS-Based Assessment of Flood Hazard through Track Records over the 1886–2022 Period in Greece

This paper addresses the riverine flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 136 years (i.e., during the 1886–2022 period), focusing, amongst others, on the case of urban floods. The flood record of various sites of the country has been collected and analyzed to determine their spatial and temporal distribution. Greece is a country where flood data and records are very scarce. Therefore, as there is not an integrated catalog of Greek floods spanning from the 19th century to recently, this is the first attempt to create an integrated catalog for Greece. The sources used include published papers, local and regional newspapers and public bodies (mainly the Ministry of Environment and Energy and the official websites of Greek municipalities). Additionally, the main factors responsible for their occurrence have been issued, regarding the country’s climatic, geological and geomorphological setting, as well as human interventions. In addition, the atmospheric circulation driving factors of floods are assessed via an unsupervised neural network approach (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps). Based on the results of this research, an online GIS-based database has been created, depicting the areas that have been struck by riverine floods in Greece. By clicking a flood event in the online database, one can view several characteristics, depending on data availability, such as duration and height of the rainfall that caused them and number of fatalities. Long-term trends of mean and extremes seasonal precipitation also linked to the spatial distribution of floods. Our analysis shows that urban floods are a very large portion of the overall flood record, and they mainly occur in the two large urban centers, Athens and Thessaloniki, as well as near large rivers such as Pineios. Autumn months and mainly November are the periods with higher flood hazards, based on past records and cyclonic atmospheric circulation constitutes the principal driving factor. Our results indicate that a flood catalog at national level is of fundamental importance, as it can provide valuable statistical insights regarding seasonality, spatial distribution of floods, etc., while it can also be used by stakeholders and researchers for flood management and flood risk analysis and modelling.

Study of Recent Deformations in the Bogotá Savanna and the City of Bogotá (Colombia) Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Radar Interferometry

Bogotá, the largest urban center and capital city of Colombia, is located within the Bogotá savanna, which originated as a lake in the central part of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera. Over time, the lake transformed into a gently undulating plain with horizontally deposited sediments that formed around five million years ago. Over the last few decades, the region has undergone significant population growth and rapid urban development, largely driven by migration from rural areas. This development has substantially impacted the subsidence observed in the city, primarily due to the extraction of groundwater. A previous study by the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC) utilized data from GNSS stations and synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) with TerraSAR-X SAR between 2011 and 2017 to identify a subsidence pattern in the central region of Bogotá. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the risks and potential disasters associated with the subsidence phenomenon. Our study investigates both the subsidence in Bogotá, previously studied, as well as the rural savanna area, which is currently undergoing significant residential and industrial development. We utilized multi-temporal InSAR (MT-InSAR) techniques with Sentinel-1 SAR images from 2014 to 2021. The analysis results indicate that the outer regions of the city display the most significant subsidence, extending from the center to the north. The subsidence velocities in these areas reach approximately 5–6 cm/year.

Flexibility of land use plans: Between supporting development and opportunism. Evidence from Poland

The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the flexibility of spatial planning at the local level and the natural and socio-economic development indicators of municipalities. Seventy municipalities located around the most dynamically developing large urban centers in Poland (Krakow, Poznań, Tri-City, Warsaw, and Wrocław) were selected for the study, in which the records of 1131 local spatial plans enacted in 2017–2019 were analyzed in detail in terms of indicators including, but not limited to, characterizing the average area of the plans, the duration of the development procedure, and the intensity of residential development, the biologically active area. Development characteristics were identified through 30 indicators in six thematic groups (demographic, socio-professional, economic and settlement structures, natural environment, and spatial planning). The relationships between the two groups of indicators were analyzed using factor analysis. On this basis, three clusters were identified, explaining 32.9% of the variation. Such a relatively low result may indicate that the spatial policy pursued by local governments is highly individualized. It may also be concluded that the flexibility of spatial planning in general is weakly related to the characteristics of development, including natural and socio-economic development, and therefore its absence should not be an obstacle to it.