Largest Party Research Articles

Diffusion Processes and Discussion Networks: An Analysis of the Propensity to Vote for the 5 Star Movement in the 2013 Italian Election

The article aims to analyze the development of the propensity to vote for a new populist party, Movimento 5 Stelle (the 5 Star Movement, M5S), during the campaign for the 2013 Italian general election. The party, headed by a former comedian, Beppe Grillo, gained 25% of valid votes in the election, thus becoming the largest party in the Italian political landscape. Using rolling cross-sectional, pre-election data from the Italian National Election Study (ITANES), we show that the propensity to vote for the M5S is boosted by voters’ exposure to discussions on political matters with discussants from non-cohesive social groups (especially acquaintances). We also show that, together with the spread of support for this party, this effect increases during the campaign.

The Effects of Malapportionment on Cabinet Inclusion: Subnational Evidence from India

Malapportionment doubly penalizes people from relatively large electoral districts or constituencies by under-representing them in the legislature and in the political executive or cabinet. The latter effect has not been studied. This article develops theoretical reasons for large constituency disadvantage in the cabinet formation process, and tests them using a new repeated cross-sectional dataset on elections and cabinet formation in India’s states, from 1977–2007. A one-standard-deviation increase in relative constituency size is associated with a 22 per cent fall in the probability of a constituency’s representative being in the cabinet. Malapportionment affects cabinet inclusion by causing large parties to focus on winning relatively small constituencies. These effects are likely to hold in parliamentary systems, and in other contexts where the legislature influences cabinet inclusion.

Influences on Citizens' Electoral System Preferences: A Comparative Study of Britain and New Zealand

Choosing electoral systems is no longer a task confined to political elites, as evidenced by the increasing number of popular referendums on electoral reform. While previous works that discussed determinants of citizens' electoral system preference have mostly relied on single case studies, this study examines this topic from a comparative perspective, analysing data from Britain and New Zealand in search of common factors that influence referendum vote. In addition to partisanship (large or small party identifier; supporter of major centre-right or centre-left party), satisfaction with democracy and cabinet type preference (single-party or coalition), results show that opinions on the key economic issues which have traditionally structured the ideological spectrum also exert a substantial impact.

Situation of AIMIM in Indian Politics

This work tries to focus on AIMIM’s Political performance in India and especially in Maharashtra Politics. In the 2014 Telangana Legislative Assembly elections, the AIMIM won seven seats and received recognition as a ‘state party’ by the Election Commission of India. After that the party leaders attracted in Maharashtra and they won by two seats in Maharashtra Assembly Election 2014. In April 2015, it emerged as the second largest party in Aurangabad Municipal elections.

Political Party Finance in Thailand Today: Evolution, Reform, and Control

ABSTRACTThis study examines the evolution of political party finance in Thailand, which has been crucial for party development. The nature of party finance cannot be examined separately from the country's democratization given that the military early on dominated political parties. At the same time, such financing traditionally depended upon either regional factions (for larger parties) or party leaders (for micro-parties), while state funding for parties was nonexistent. The 1998 and 2007 Organic Acts on Political Parties contained finance reforms to strengthen parties, making them more transparent and accountable. Yet these reforms have only been partly successful. Today party leaders, faction leaders, and the military continue to influence party finance. This study addresses the issue of party finance in Thailand by scrutinizing its historical evolution from the dawn of Thai parties and party laws in the 1950s to the present. The authors conclude, first, that the limited nature of party finance laws in the pre-1998 period legitimized military-backed parties while facilitating intra-party factionalism. Second, they contend that despite reforms in party finance laws in Thailand major flaws remain to be corrected.

Fees, fairness and the National Scholarship Programme: Higher education policy in England and the Coalition Government

Conservative and Liberal Democrat policies for higher education funding in the 2010 general election campaign offered voters a stark choice – with one party willing to consider raising the cap on undergraduate fees, while the other publicly committed to removing any student contribution. It is not surprising therefore that this was an area in which they found it impossible to agree a firm position as part of their coalition agreement (Cabinet Office, 2010). When parliament later voted on higher education funding, the view of the larger party prevailed and the cap on fees almost trebled to £9,000. The Liberal Democrat Deputy Prime Minister took responsibility for launching a National Scholarship Programme (NSP), providing financial support to undergraduates from lower-income backgrounds, to be introduced at the same time as the increase in fees. While this may have offered limited political credibility to his party, the structure of the scheme was criticized from the outset, and it ceased to operate after just three cohorts of students. This paper identifies the political and policy drivers behind the NSP. It explores the need for compromise in the context of the Coalition Government and the drive to embed a dimension of 'fairness' into policy change. From an analysis of the NSP's implementation, evolution, and ultimate closure, we consider the extent to which fairness can, and cannot, successfully be promoted through the design of undergraduate fees and financial support, an objective that was espoused by politicians responsible for the introduction of £1,000, £3,000 and, ultimately, £9,000 fees.

The Results: How Britain Voted

Between 2005 and 2010, despite some ‘random shocks’ caused by the emergence of new party leaders, the trends in party support suggested a return to the traditional inter-election cycle. During the election campaign, however, there were dramatic changes as the popularity of Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg, increased sharply. In terms of votes, the Conservatives emerged as the largest party but this was not enough to obtain a majority of seats. Scotland was unusual in seeing a rise in Labour support and a decline for the Liberal Democrats. The pattern of party support for the major parties across constituencies was much the same as before, but UKIP and the BNP had distinctive areas of relative strength and weakness. Turnout increased but not by as much as might have been expected given the closeness of the contest. The ‘win’ for the Conservatives was probably mainly due to the electorates preference and greater liking for David Cameron over Gordon Brown, but voters still harboured doubts about the ability of the Tories to deliver effective policies and that is why they did not win more emphatically.

Austrian Public Debt Growth: A Public Choice Perspective

This paper analyzes whether Austrian fiscal policies have been sustainable during the last five decades, concentrating on the federal (central state) level. Tests indicate that Austrian fiscal policies were sustainable, though with a decreasing weight attached to this goal. Starting in 1975, the unemployment rate played a significant role in the sense of a counter-cyclical orientation of Austrian fiscal policy as part of the concept of “Austrokeynesianism.” The development of public debt in Austria seems to be driven primarily not by ideology, but by structural causes and a shift of the budgetary policy paradigm. We find empirical evidence that governments in Austria dominated solely by one party run higher deficits than coalitions of the two large parties or the two conservative parties. There are no indications of a political business cycle.

General Election 2014: Will BJP’s Gains Polarize Assam Further?

The emergence of BJP as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha elections 2014 has important implications for realignments of social groups in the country. It has firmly established its foothold in many states thereby emerging as a national party, in the literal sense of the term. Its performance of 7 out of 14 seats in a state like Assam, which had been a Congress stronghold since independence, is no mean feat. The Congress, as elsewhere, managed to do poorly with only three seats and many party heavyweights have been routed out this time. The article argues that this election has sealed the process of disintegration of the ‘catch-all’ nature of the Congress party in Assam, the unravelling of which had already begun in 1985 when Asom Gana Parishad won the assembly elections with a landslide victory. A major reason for this is the realignment of social groups with political parties leading to both ethnic polarization and ethnic accommodation in the state. This breakdown has been expedited on account of growing dissidence and factionalism within the Congress party as well as increasingly shifting loyalties of its core constituencies to other emerging loci of power in the state. Furthermore, the article argues that the emerging political constellation constituting parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party and All India United Democratic Front have a potential to further polarize a much fragmented and fragile Assam.

The roles of Eurosceptic Members of the European Parliament and their implications for the EU

The 2014 European elections demonstrated the scale and success of the EU’s opponents. Radical and populist parties topped the polls in some countries while others gained parliamentary representation for the first time. At the same time, Euroscepticism has entered the mainstream, with an increase of anti-EU rhetoric among government parties and the European Conservative and Reformist group becoming the third largest party in the European Parliament. In this context, this article aims at analysing the strategies developed by Eurosceptics from the left, the right and the mainstream once elected to parliament but also at providing food for thought regarding the implications of an (increased) presence of Eurosceptic MEPs. It provides a typology of four roles played by Eurosceptics, showing the diversity of their strategies. It then argues that the presence of these dissenting voices might be an asset for the EU’s legitimacy.

The Influence of Changes in Taiwan’s Legislative Electoral System on the Democratic Progressive Party (2008-2012)

Elections to the Legislative Yuan in Taiwan are crucial to the exercise of national legislative power, and an important mechanism for popular participation in decision making through representative politics. This study looks at the historical consequences of the political demands for a “single member, dual ballot” electoral system and “halving of legislative seats” during Taiwan’s democratization process, and the resultant path dependence for Taiwan’s legislative elections, from which the mixed-member system with two ballots in single member constituencies emerged as the direction for constitutional reform. This constitutional amendment project driven by cooperation between the two major parties in Taiwan ultimately produced a disproportional outcome, under which the Kuomintang (KMT) as the largest party has enjoyed a dominant position due to over-representation, while the number of seats won by other parties was reduced. This may not have been the result originally anticipated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). However, changes in the electoral system occur in the context of path dependent dilemmas. Only a new wave of constitutional revisions can correct the large difference between legislative representation and the structure of the electorate, and bring the system closer to the basic principles of representative politics under democracy.

Majorization comparison of closed list electoral systems through a matrix theorem

Let $${\mathcal {M}}$$ be the space of all the $$\tau \times n$$ matrices with pairwise distinct entries and with both rows and columns sorted in descending order. If $$X=(x_{ij})\in {\mathcal {M}}$$ and $$X_{n}$$ is the set of the $$n$$ greatest entries of $$X$$ , we denote by $$\psi _{j}$$ the number of elements of $$X_{n}$$ in the column $$j$$ of $$X$$ and by $$\psi ^{i}$$ the number of elements of $$X_{n}$$ in the row $$i$$ of $$X$$ . If a new matrix $$X^{\prime }=(x_{ij}^{\prime })\in {\mathcal {M}}$$ is obtained from $$X$$ in such a way that $$X^{\prime }$$ yields to $$X$$ (as defined in the paper), then there is a relation of majorization between $$(\psi ^{1},\psi ^{2},\ldots ,\psi ^{\tau })$$ and the corresponding $$(\psi ^{\prime 1},\psi ^{\prime 2},\ldots ,\psi ^{\prime \tau })$$ of $$X^{\prime }$$ , and between $$(\psi _{1}^{\prime },\psi _{2}^{\prime },\ldots ,\psi _{n}^{\prime })$$ of $$X^{\prime }$$ and $$(\psi _{1},\psi _{2},\ldots ,\psi _{n})$$ . This result can be applied to the comparison of closed list electoral systems, providing a unified proof of the standard hierarchy of these electoral systems according to whether they are more or less favourable to larger parties.

‘There's Just No Point Having a Token Woman’: Gender and Representation in the Democratic Unionist Party in Post-Agreement Northern Ireland

Politics in Northern Ireland suffers from a dearth of female representation, a problem that has traditionally been more acute within unionist parties than their nationalist counterparts (Galligan and Wilford, 1999, ‘Women and Politics’. In Mitchell, P. and Wilford, R. (eds) Politics in Northern Ireland, Oxford, Oxford University Press). This is despite the aim of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement to establish equality provisions for women. This article draws upon substantive and unique access to data gathered from an extensive membership study of Northern Ireland's largest party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) (Tonge, J., Braniff, M., Hennessey, T., McAuley, J., and Whiting, S. (2014) The Democratic Unionist Party: From Protest to Power, Oxford, Oxford University Press) to explore how attitudes towards female representation impact upon inequalities in gender representation in Northern Ireland. Exploring how women have fared in the ‘new’ Northern Ireland since 1998, this article examines the position of women within party politics and utilises interview and survey material on the DUP. The article identifies a more progressive cohort within the party membership that wants to see more gender equality. Yet, the legacy of the peace process has meant positive discrimination remains anathema to the vast majority within Northern Ireland's largest political party.

Urinary C-peptide levels in male bonobos (Pan paniscus) are related to party size and rank but not to mate competition

Within- and between-species variation in male mating strategies has been attributed to a multitude of factors including male competitive ability and the distribution of fertile females across space and time. Differences in energy balance across and within males allow for the identification of some of the trade-offs associated with certain social and mating strategies. Bonobos live in groups with a high degree of fission–fusion dynamics, there is co-dominance between the sexes and a linear dominance hierarchy among males. Males compete over access to females, breeding is aseasonal, and females exhibit sexual swellings over extended time periods. In this study we use urinary C-peptide (UCP) levels in male bonobos (Pan paniscus) obtained from 260 urine samples from a wild bonobo community, to quantify male energy balance during mate competition and levels of gregariousness in the species. Although high ranking males are more aggressive, spend more time in proximity to maximally tumescent females, and have higher mating frequencies, we found no indication that mate guarding or mate competition affected male energy balance. Our results showed a positive correlation between monthly mean UCP levels and mean party size. When traveling in large parties, high ranking males had higher UCP levels than those of the low ranking males. These results support the hypothesis that patterns of fission–fusion dynamics in bonobos are either linked to energy availability in the environment or to the energetic costs of foraging. The finding of a rank-bias in UCP levels in larger parties could also reflect an increase in contest competition among males over access to food.

Dinheiro, profissão e partido: a vitória na eleição para deputado federal no Brasil em 2010

A partir de banco de dados com 4.124 candidatos à Câmara dos Deputados nas eleições de 2010, este artigo avalia o peso das variáveis "ocupação", "tipo de partido político" e "financiamento das campanhas" no desempenho eleitoral dos competidores a uma cadeira no legislativo federal. O artigo conclui que pertencer a partidos políticos grandes e organizados, ter experiência política prévia (especialmente na própria Câmara dos Deputados) e possuir alta capacidade de arrecadação de recursos financeiros são condições fundamentais para determinar o sucesso eleitoral do candidato. Tais dados apontam para a profissionalização dos quadros eleitos no Brasil e para a crescente institucionalização do universo político nacional.

Understanding Pre-electoral Coalitions in Central and Eastern Europe

While pre-electoral coalitions have important effects on the functioning of democracy, their formation has only been systematically examined in the context of established democracies. This study examines the patterns and factors of electoral alliance formation in eleven democracies in Central and Eastern Europe by focusing on joint candidate lists. It finds that electoral coalitions are more frequent in newer democracies than in established democracies. The formation of alliances is systematically related to their potential costs and benefits. On the one hand, coalitions can provide small parties with legislative representation and larger parties with important government coalition partners. On the other hand, parties face costs related to their electoral compatibility and the sharing of election candidacies and office positions.

The Achilles Heel of Plurality Systems: Geography and Representation in Multiparty Democracies

Building on the unfinished research program of Gudgin and Taylor (1979), we analytically derive the linkage between a party's territorial distribution of support and the basic features of its vote‐seat curve. We then demonstrate the usefulness of the corresponding empirical model with an analysis of elections in postwar Great Britain, focusing in particular on the transformation of the Liberals from a territorially concentrated to a dispersed party in the 1970s. We show that majoritarian biases increase with the number of parties, and majoritarian systems harm small parties when their vote is more dispersed than average, and large parties when their vote is more concentrated than average. Moreover, the evolving experiences of Labour and Conservatives demonstrate how a party's territorial support, and hence its expected seat premium or penalty, changes with its electoral fortunes. This model has a wide variety of applications in multiparty majoritarian democracies around the world.

Assessing the Mechanical and Psychological Effects of District Magnitude

District magnitude is a central aspect of the institutional context in PR elections, and it influences parties’ and voters’ strategies. The incentives for strategic behaviour are stronger in smaller districts, as only large parties are likely to be viable. This article investigates how much the vote is affected by this characteristic of the electoral context, focusing on the 2005 and 2009 Portuguese elections. Portugal is one of the countries with the largest degree of variation in district magnitude and represents thus an ideal case for analysing district magnitude effects. Relying on data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, this study shows a strong mechanical effect of district magnitude and a limited psychological effect.

Differentiated party response: The effect of Euroskeptic public opinion on party positions

Do parties respond to voters’ preferences on European integration in elections to the European Parliament? In this article, we argue that political parties do respond to voters’ Euroskeptic attitudes, but that party type conditions responsiveness. In particular, we posit that larger parties are more responsive and that governing parties are less responsive to aggregate Euroskepticism. To test our theoretical expectations, we use data from the Euromanifestos Project and European Election Study from 1989 to 2009 for 252 parties across 26 European Union Member States. Our findings have important implications for understanding democratic representation in the European Union and the second-order nature of elections to the European Parliament.

EXCHANGING ONE UNION FOR ANOTHER? THE FORMATION AND ASCENT OF THE SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY

With increasing frequency, long-established multinational states in Western Europe are fracturing under the centrifugal pressures generated by the desire of ethnonational groups to achieve self-government. In Europe, the EU increasingly serves as a potential ally for ethno-national political movements (perhaps even a potential replacement) to what are perceived as the constrictions of the nation-state. In Britain, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) began to achieve significant electoral competitiveness during the 1960s. It has now reached the point where it was the official opposition in the Scottish Parliament from 1999-2007,then became the largest party in the parliament and formed a minority government following elections on 3'd May 2007. The aim of this article is to survey the genealogy of nationalist mobilisation in Scotland as well as to identifY the factors that have fuelled the party's trajectory from that of a fractured pressure group in the 1930s and 1940s to that of a credible political actor today. Importantly, the article will elaborate on the party's oscilating attitudes to European integration since the 1930s and evaluate whether the Party will in fact be able, as it claims, to trade membership of the United Kingdom for membership as an independent state within the EU. Keywords: Minority Nationalism, Scottish National Party, European Integration, United Kingdom.