Trends are a commodity. You are one Google search from discovering hundreds of forecasts, trend lists, and predictions for your industry. Unfortunately, so are all of your competitors. Innovating against these known trends is table stakes. You need to do it just to stay in the game, but doing so will likely yield only market-rate growth unless your company already has a particular advantage. To grow at above-market rates and achieve truly transformational innovation, companies need to create a proprietary understanding about the future. This enables them to focus innovation, acquisitions, and other activities to build unique capability in tomorrow's growth areas. One way to achieve proprietary understanding of the future is through ethnographic foresight. This research method combines customer ethnography techniques with foresight tools to anticipate future customer demand and build new capabilities ahead of competitors. Ethnographic foresight has a rich history: futurist Arnold Mitchell created the VALS (Values, Attitudes, and Lifestyles) instrument as a foresight tool to understand how society might develop in the future for a 1978 study at SRI International; it became one of the first foresight-related tools used by business (Yankelovich and Meer 2006), and it's still in use today. VALS identified specific groups of consumers who shared unique values that were expressed through behavior and consumption. Companies were then able to develop products and services aimed at those values and begin to anticipate how those groups might behave in different potential futures. Today the use of ethnography for business that VALS helped engender is very sophisticated; it underpins the marketing activities of many companies. Ironically, though, ethnography is not commonly used as VALS was originally intended, to understand the broader future of society. Rather, business ethnography often focuses on understanding customers as they are now. Ethnographic foresight combines business ethnography with foresight tools such as scenario planning, systems thinking, and forecasting to unearth unique insights into the future. There are three main ways to do ethnographic foresight: * Incasting--placing your current customers into new futures and evaluating how they might respond, * Forecasting--identifying new consumer behaviors and looking for how they might be creating unique futures, and * Co-evolution--recognizing that people both shape and are shaped by the future and developing ways to monitor this co-evolution over time. An example ripe for ethnographic foresight is playing out right now with the rise of the Millennial generation. Connected technologies, a parental focus on safety and security, and a slow economy are shaping the values and behavior of Millennials. Applying the tools of future ethnography can yield a rich harvest of insight to drive product, service, and business model innovation: * Using incasting, we can ask how the expression of Millennial values might change in different futures or contexts. For instance, as the financial hangover from the Great Recession finally dissipates, the United States, with its large, highly trained workforce, could be poised for a sustained period of above average financial growth. How might Millennials react to this economic boom scenario, which would be unfamiliar to them? How would their desire for access, as opposed to ownership, be expressed? How would their need for virtual experiences and companionship change or be enhanced by increased disposable income? * Using forecasting, we can look for affluent Millennials, use ethnographic techniques to discover behaviors or desires that differentiate them from the rest of their generational Christian Crews has over 15 years of experience applying foresight to innovation and strategy for large corporations, nonprofits, and government agencies. He designed and Implemented the IRI2038 project for IRI in 2012-2013 and is a leading practitioner and innovator in scenario planning methods. …