Large Urban Development Research Articles

TREND IMPACT ANALYSIS AND SCENARIO WRITING : STRATEGIES FOR THE SPECIFICATION OF DECISION ALTERNATIVES IN EDUCATIONAL PLANNING

Futures research and long‐range planning in an urban school district involve the use of a methodology having no direct answers or precise rules in terms of experimental and design alternatives. While some design options can be found in operations research and management science, futures research projects in education are more likely to follow the directions for policy analysis initially suggested by Yehezkel Dror and re‐examined in Aaron Wildavsky. They note in policy analysis, 1. Much attention would be paid to the political aspects of public decision‐making and public policy‐making (instead of ignoring or condescendingly regarding political aspects) … 2. A broad conception of decision‐making and policy‐making would be involved (instead of viewing all decision‐making as mainly a resources allocation) … 3. A main emphasis would be on creativity and search for new policy alternatives, with explicit attention to encouragement of innovative thinking … 4. There would be extensive reliance on … qualitative methods … 5. There would be much more emphasis on futuristic thinking … 6. The approach would be looser and less rigid, but nevertheless systematic, one which would recognise the complexity of means‐ends interdependence, the multiplicity of relevant criteria of decision, and the partial and tentative nature of every analysis … (Wildavsky, Aaron, “Rescuing Policy Analysis from PPBS” Public Administration Review 29. 1969. pp. 189–202. Wildavsky's reference is to Dror's “Policy Analysts : A New Professional Role in Government Service” Public Administration Review. 27. 1967. pp.200–201). The intent is to describe a single futures research project conducted in a large urban school district staff development program. It is reported here as a means to outline a general approach to policy planning that might be used or adapted by other administrators who share an interest in futures research.

Problems in Municipal Finance

METROPOLITAN GOVERNMENT and its attendant problems are the subject of considerable recent publication.' Demographic and empirical findings justify this volume of publication which is concerned mainly with the pattern of urbanization and suburbanization now occurring in the United States. Each new census confirms the trend toward an increased urbanization so that today by Census Bureau definition, over two out of three Americans are urban, or only one out of every eight individuals is classified as ruralfarm. The drama of bigness in the metropolitan phenomenon overshadows the less dramatic existence of the small and medium sized city and its problems. The fact remains, however, that incorporated cities of less than 50,000 population accounted for over 50 million or 28.2 per cent of the total population in 1960 as compared with over 64 million or 36.2 per cent living in cities of over 50,000. If cities up to 100,000 population are considered as a group, 35.9 per cent of the population is accounted for as compared with 28.5 per cent in cities of over 100,000 people.3 Though many of the smaller cities are within the metropolitan complexes and as such are a part of the problem of the metropolitan areas, there are still millions of urban Americans living in cities in which problems of the magnitude of those identified with the larger metropolitan centers do not exist. The problems confronting these smaller and medium sized cities, however, often are as difficult to solve, given the available resources as compared with the larger cities. The fact is that the social, economic, demographic, and technological changes that are having so profound an effect on our great urban centers also leave their mark on the smaller cities and communities. The problems of the large and small urban development are more a matter of degree. Where the metropolitan city may be involved in many area and regional-wide problems in services, planning, decision-making, financing, and a host of other matters,4 the smaller city, existing