Large Transport Infrastructure Projects Research Articles

Uticaj transevropskih saobracajnih koridora na regionalni razvoj i aglomeracione sisteme - iskustva Evropskih zemalja

The trans-European transport network has different effects at inter-regional, macro-regional and mezzo-regional level, and its effectiveness rises at the lower regional levels. Possible approaches to the trans-European transport network impact and effect survey and policy options have been pointed out. In that respect the brief review of surveys, strategic framework and policies in the European Union has been given. The importance of increased accessibility and mobility for regional expansion and for a more balanced and polycentric system of city networks has been underlined. The question is how the new major transport infrastructure affects the development of functional complementarity between cities and regions. The new trans-European or major transport infrastructure does not per se create regional and urban system network development, although it can affect the conditions for the processes that create growth and development. The effects can be reinforced by co-ordination of measures of regional and urban policy, land use, transport and other policies. The necessary measure is the introduction of spatial impact assessment as an instrument for spatial assessment of large transport infrastructure projects.

Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects

Little research has been carried out on before-and-after studies of traffic and costs in large transport infrastructure projects. The few studies made all show a tendency for forecasts of construction costs to be underestimated, and for traffic forecasts to be overestimated. An examination of construction costs and traffic in seven large Danish bridge and tunnel projects shows that construction costs have been underestimated and traffic has been overestimated in the initial phases of planning. This pattern is also found in studies from other countries of large transport infrastructure projects. When the results of the Danish and the other projects are pooled together, the main lesson to be learnt is that cost overruns of 50–100% are common and overruns above 100% are not uncommon. Traffic forecasts that are incorrect by 20–60% compared with actual development are common in large transport infrastructure projects. The result of this overoptimism in the initial phases of planning is that decisions are based on misleading forecasts that may lead to a misallocation of funds and underperforming projects.

Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates on Large Transportation Projects

Little research has been carried out on before-and-after studies of traffic and construction costs in large transportation infrastructure projects. The few studies that do exist show that forecasts of construction costs tend to be underestimated and those of traffic, overestimated. An examination of construction costs and traffic in seven large Danish bridge and tunnel projects indicates that, on average, construction costs were underestimated and traffic was overestimated in the initial phases of planning. This pattern is also found for similar projects in other countries. When the results of all the projects are pooled, it is seen that cost overruns of 50 to 100 percent are common and that overruns above 100 percent are not uncommon. Traffic forecasts that are off by 20 to 60 percent when compared with actual development are frequent in large transportation infrastructure projects. The result of this overoptimism in the initial planning phases is that decisions are based on misleading forecasts that may...

Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates on Large Transportation Projects

Little research has been carried out on before-and-after studies of traffic and construction costs in large transportation infrastructure projects. The few studies that do exist show that forecasts of construction costs tend to be underestimated and those of traffic, overestimated. An examination of construction costs and traffic in seven large Danish bridge and tunnel projects indicates that, on average, construction costs were underestimated and traffic was overestimated in the initial phases of planning. This pattern is also found for similar projects in other countries. When the results of all the projects are pooled, it is seen that cost overruns of 50 to 100 percent are common and that overruns above 100 percent are not uncommon. Traffic forecasts that are off by 20 to 60 percent when compared with actual development are frequent in large transportation infrastructure projects. The result of this overoptimism in the initial planning phases is that decisions are based on misleading forecasts that may lead to a misallocation of funds and underperforming projects.