Large Trade Research Articles

The return predictability of technological links: evidence from the Chinese STAR Market

ABSTRACT This paper examines the predictive power of technology-linked returns in the Chinese Science and Technology Innovation Market (STAR Market). Using a sample from August 2019 to June 2023, we construct technology-linked returns based on patent portfolio similarities among firms. Our findings indicate that these returns significantly predict future stock returns, with a long-short strategy yielding weekly excess returns between 0.50% and 0.53%. Analysis of trade sizes reveals that institutional investors are more likely to drive this predictability, as the direction of large trades aligns with technology-linked returns. This study explores how technology-peer information affects stock returns in an emerging, technology-intensive market, highlighting the significant role of traders with large capital in leveraging technology-peer information.

Social media attention and retail investor behavior: Evidence from r/wallstreetbets

This paper studies the influence of Reddit social media attention on investor risk-taking and welfare using individual trading data from a large trading platform. We show that attention generated on the subreddit r/wallstreetbets (WSB) spurs uninformed trading, also in short positions. WSB attention increases overall risk levels as investors trade riskier stocks and allocate larger portfolio shares to new positions. WSB attention significantly reduces holding period returns (HPRs). Positions created when WSB attention is at its highest realize -8.5% HPRs, while the average HPR across all investments is positive. Investment decisions of retail investors are more likely to be based on emotional responses to angry and disgusted user contributions on Reddit rather than analyst investment advice.

Improvement of Livestock Product Delivery Services Using Design Thinking

PT. Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, the largest livestock company in Indonesia, was established in 1972 as PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Animal Feedmil Co. Limited. Today, the company is expanding with a focus on livestock activities such as broiler breeding, poultry slaughterhouses, and packing, processing of meat and poultry products, cultivation of broiler chickens, and a large trade in live animals and chicken meat. This study aims to identify the obstacles that occur in the process of shipping chickens, both experienced by farmers and by chicken expedition companies. In addition, this research also aims to improve livestock product delivery services by applying the Design Thinking approach. In the context of the livestock industry, the delivery of products such as live DOC chickens requires special handling, especially related to temperature and humidity, considering the vulnerability of DOC chickens to environmental changes. With a focus on partner logistics companies PT. Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, namely CV. Joint Work. The researcher included the Design Thinking method. The results of this research are expected to make a significant contribution to improving the quality of livestock product delivery services, improving operational efficiency, and providing a better experience for stakeholders.

Carbon price prediction in China based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and machine learning algorithms.

The carbon emission trading market is crucial for reducing emissions, conserving energy, and enhancing the climate and environment. Studying carbon price forecasting can encourage China's involvement in international carbon financial instruments trading and promote the development of China's pilot carbon markets. This study employs ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEDM) to convert the initial carbon price, which is a non-stationary signal, into several intrinsic mode functions and residual terms. Subsequently, hybrid machine learning methods are used to estimate the carbon price. For empirical analysis, the three main carbon markets with large trading volumes, Guangdong, Hubei, and Shenzhen, are selected from the eight pilot carbon markets. To achieve short-term carbon price prediction, a hybrid model combining a genetic algorithm (GA) and back propagation (BP) neural network is used. This model effectively addresses the issue of neural networks falling into local optimization. The results indicate that the hybrid algorithm is significantly superior to other algorithms for short-term prediction. Additionally, another hybrid model, combining the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms, is employed to reduce forecast error while minimizing search parameters, which is not possible with traditional neural network models.

Tackling nonlinear price impact with linear strategies

AbstractEmpirical studies in various contexts find that the price impact of large trades approximately follows a power law with exponent between 0.4 and 0.7. Yet, tractable formulas for the portfolios that trade off predictive trading signals, risk, and trading costs in an optimal manner are only available for quadratic costs corresponding to linear price impact. In this paper, we show that the resulting linear strategies allow to achieve virtually optimal performance also for realistic nonlinear price impact, if the “effective” quadratic cost parameter is chosen appropriately. To wit, for a wide range of risk levels, this leads to performance losses below 2% compared to a numerical algorithm proposed by Kolm and Ritter, run at very high accuracy. The effective quadratic cost depends on the portfolio risk and concavity of the impact function, but can be computed without any sophisticated numerics by simply maximizing an explicit scalar function.

Research on the Influencing Factors of Rental House Prices

Since the 1990s, China's real estate market has gradually recovered, and has developed into a large and mature trading market today, as the housing price increase, the demand of housing rental also increases a lot. Based on this this article aims to identify the factors that have an impact on rental price. The method of multi-linear regression is used to analyze the factors with over 10,000 samples in Guangzhou from May 2020 to June 2020 from the website of LianJia, one of the biggest real estate agencies in China. The dataset contains 10 variables in total, this research uses VIF, Pearson correlation coefficient to narrow the variables down to District, Rent Type, Area, Elevator Flag and Buld Floor these five variables and considered that they have a significant linear relationship with rental price. By focusing on these variables this study provides a view of the relationship of demand and supply of China’s renting market.

The Influence of Audit Tenure, Audit Rotation, Public Accounting Firm Size, and Audit Opinion on Audit Quality (Study of Large Trading Companies Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange)

The purpose of this study was to examine the Influence of audit tenure, audit rotation, size of the public accounting firm (KAP), and audit opinion on audit quality. This research data analysis method uses quantitative analysis techniques and purposive sampling, namely determining the research sample using 20 out of 47 samples of large trading companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) in the period 2020 to 2022. The method used is logistic regression. Data analysis to test the hypothesis was done by using multiple regression tests. The results of the logistic regression test show that (1) audit tenure has no significant influence on audit quality. (2) audit rotation has no significant influence on audit quality, (3) the size of the public accounting firm has no significant influence on audit quality. (4) audit opinion positively and significantly influences audit quality.

Determinan Yang Memengaruhi Pemilihan Saluran Pemasaran Kopi Robusta Di Kabupaten Malang

The demand for coffee in Malang Regency by determining the quantity of commodities is very dependent on the marketing subsystem. Robusta coffee marketing channels in Malang Regency include marketing institutions, namely small traders, sub-district collectors and large traders. Coffee marketing is dominated by small traders. This research aims to analyze the determinants that influence the choice of marketing channels for Robusta coffee in Malang Regency. The location of this research was carried out in two villages, namely Srimulyo Village and Sukodono Village, Kec. Dampit, Kab. Poor. The respondents in this research were Robusta coffee farmers in two villages in a total of 60 respondents. Marketing agency respondents were then determined using snowball sampling techniques. Snowball sampling method by collecting data based on information from previous respondents based on existing marketing patterns in Malang Regency. This research uses multinomial logit analysis by determining efficient marketing channels as a reference variable. Based on the results of marketing channel analysis, it was found that there are 5 marketing channel patterns. Marketing channel 1 consists of 27 farmers and the largest channel choice is 45%, while the results of the marketing efficiency analysis show that channel 5, namely direct farmers to wholesalers, is the most efficient. Marketing channel 5 consists of 11 farmers with a percentage of 18.3%. The results of the research show that 3 variables influence the choice of marketing channels, namely production volume, farming experience, and education level. Suggestions from research for extension workers and local governments need to assist farmers regarding financing and coffee market information so that marketing channel choices are more varied.

Pegged exchange rate regime and its impact on inflation in BRICS nations: Country-wise evidence

During the 1990s and 2000s, many developing nations accepted fixed exchange rate regimes to sustain price stability. By pegging their currencies to an anchor currency (i.e. US dollar), developing countries could bring credibility and confidence into their economies. The study tries to analyse the impact of the pegged exchange rate regime on inflation in BRICS countries for the period spanning from 2003 to 2022. The result points to the loss of monetary policy autonomy due to the ‘impossible trinity’ coming into play with a steady increase in capital inflows. The country’s large trade surpluses and extensive trade relationships may buffer the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices, as changes in the exchange rate may be absorbed by changes in trade volumes or pricing strategies. Other factors like demographic trends or government interventions in markets could overshadow the influence of the exchange rate regime on inflation. The impact of changes in the exchange rate regimes on inflation may operate with lags, meaning that any effects may not be immediately observable in the data. The analysis in this study proposes that exchange rate regimes choice and money supply influence the inflation dynamics in the BRICS countries. It merely reflects the success of the central bank in neutralizing its very effort of maintaining the pegged rate, which gives rise to inflationary growth of the money supply.

Phenomenological Study of the Simirah Information System in Addressing Cooking Oil Scarcity (2021-2023)

Abstract This research explores the government policy regarding the surge in cooking oil prices in 2022, a topic of ongoing debate among stakeholders. The findings reveal that the direct cash assistance (BLT) program’s regulatory impact assessment underscores lower-class economic principles’ volatility and the challenges of simplifying government policies, often perceived as unfeasible. On the other hand, the monitoring of bulk cooking oil (MGCR) producers benefits entrepreneurs and does not directly alleviate poverty. However, the practical implementation of the Simirah application system, a significant tool in this context, presents substantial and urgent hurdles for small-scale vendors. Their limited understanding of the system, coupled with their lack of technological knowledge and insufficient socialisation about the monitoring procedures related to cooking oil distribution, severely impede their effective use of the system. Large traders and distributors of cooking oil, with their relatively good technological knowledge, often step in as support and representatives for these small-scale vendors.

Absolute and size‐adjusted trade flows: An analysis of RTAs and GATT/WTO membership

AbstractThis paper contributes to the debate on whether membership of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organisation (GATT/WTO) promotes greater levels of international trade. A size‐adjusted measure of trade flows vis‐á‐vis absolute trade flows (the traditional dependent variable) is used. The size‐adjusted trade flows dependent variable reduces the importance of bilateral trade with larger countries yielding a greater balance between large and small trade partners and provides an opportunity to test the importance of membership of the GATT/WTO relative to the numerous regional trade agreements (RTAs) which have grown exponentially over the years. In keeping with the recent literature, a structural gravity model of trade framework is used with a Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator and high dimensional fixed effects. Furthermore, the data set consists of both international and intra‐national (domestic) trade flows. In the case of both approaches (size‐adjusted and absolute trade flows) the results are statistically significant and positive as regards the impact of GATT/WTO membership and RTAs on trade flows. Furthermore, the estimates resulting from size‐adjusted trade flows maintain the greater importance of GATT/WTO membership relative to RTAs.

Institutional Brokerage Networks: Facilitating Liquidity Provision

Abstract We argue that institutional brokerage networks facilitate liquidity provision and mitigate the price impact of large non-information-motivated trades. Using commissions, we map trading networks of mutual funds (institutions) and their brokers. Central funds (institutions) tend to outperform their peripheral counterparts in terms of return gap (execution shortfall). This outperformance is more pronounced when funds experience large outflows and for large trades in less liquid stocks. Central brokers can deliver superior trade execution compared to peripheral brokers, but mainly for central institutions. We use the collapse of Lehman Brothers as a quasi-natural experiment to establish the likely causality of our findings.

The Role Played by the Merchants of al-Qasim in the Coffee Trade across the Arabian Gulf, 1870–1950

Abstract This article traces the coffee bean trade from its spread in central Arabia, focusing particularly on two groups of merchants in al-Qasim. The first group includes those who migrated and settled in countries of the Arabian Gulf, Iraq, India, or elsewhere and engaged in the trade in food, including in coffee. They amassed wealth and established large trading networks in the Hijaz, the Gulf coasts, Iraq, and India. The second group comprises traders who traveled from al-Qasim to the ports of the Arabian Gulf to purchase foodstuffs and export them to al-Qasim and other regions of central Arabia. The article emphasizes the strong relationships among these traders, how they were linked by the coffee trade, and how this trade also symbolized the connection between Najd and the wider world, contributing to its integration into the global economy.

Опасность фрагментации глобальной экономики нарастает

The article examines the reasons for the fragmentation of the world economy and global trade at the beginning of the21st century. The author explores two aspects of this fragmentation. The first relates to the weakening of the World TradeOrganization (WTO) and its rule-making function, which has intensified regionalization, as manifested in the emergence ofmega trade agreements. Further progress of the latter, while the WTO remains relatively weak, may contribute to the futurefragmentation of world trade, from which small developing countries will primarily lose. The second aspect is largely due tothe consequences of the financial crisis of 2008–09, which resulted in the desire of key players to create more autonomousnational economies and ensure economic security to avoid excessive costs in the event of future crises. This gave rise to talkabout strengthening deglobalization trends. The second aspect also includes the U.S. – China trade war with technologicaldecoupling between them, the influence of geopolitical factors on trade, and the impact of industrial policies of large stateson trade. The final part of the article provides a brief analysis of the negative impact of fragmentation on the global economyand trade. The author concludes that geo-economic fragmentation poses a real threat to the global economy.

Competitiveness Strategy of South Korean Cosmetic Brands: Current Practices and Opportunities for Russian Cosmetic Brands

This study analyzes place, trends and competitiveness of the South Korean cosmetics brands to identify opportunities for the Russian cosmetics brands, whose country has suffered from a large trade deficit in the cosmetics industry despite the government’s vigorous attempts in implementing import substitution policies. We constructed the econometric models (with ordinary least square, weighted least square and robust least square estimators) of the cosmetics brands’ competitiveness by employing the endogenous factors of Porter’s diamond model, which are comprised of firm factor conditions, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, and strategy, structure and rivalry. From the regression analysis, it is revealed that the brand diversification, expansion of e-commerce sales and improvement of governance quality are factors that drive up sales revenues of a cosmetic company. The follow-up comparative analysis between Russian and South Korean companies allowed us to substantiate that the main factors causing the gap between Russian and South Korean cosmetic brands are e-commerce strategies and the efficiency of the governmental system. Russian cosmetic companies should construct stable global and domestic supply chain and expand contact points with foreign customers through big data analysis and development of customized product portfolio. Furthermore, the government is recommended to implement digital services and construct a data-sharing ecosystem to enhance efficiencies of the business process.

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE FLOOD DISASTER ON THE EXISTENCE OF COMMUNITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE

ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE FLOOD DISASTER ON THE EXISTENCE OF COMMUNITY SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE

Capital Market Reaction to the Strengthening of the Rupiah Exchange Rate against the US Dollar Exchange Rate

The purpose of this study is to analyze the response of Indonesian capital markets to differences in average abnormal returns and average trading volume activity before and after the strengthening of the IDR/USD exchange rate. This study is a quantitative study using the event study method. The sample used consists of the stocks included in the LQ45 index. the most active stocks with a large daily trading volume. Hypothesis testing and paired t-test. The results of the hypothesis test show that: there is no significant difference in the average abnormal returns before and after the strengthening of the rupiah against the US dollar because are sig. (2-tailed) value of 0.417 > 0.05; there is no significant difference in the average trading volume activity before and after the strengthening of the rupiah against the US dollar because sig. (2-tailed) value of 0.080 >0.05. Keyword: Market Reaction; Event Study; Abnormal Return; Trading Volume Activity; Exchange Rate

Financial development and central bank bilateral currency swaps: Is there trade effect?

Purpose ― This paper aims to empirically investigate the impact of currency swaps on international trade, given China's differential level of financial development and its currency swap partners. Methods ― The study employes an empirical structural gravity model using datasets encompassing financial development, trade, and intuitive gravity equation variables for 27 countries from 1980 to 2013. The level of financial development and swaps was captured by the interaction term of the disaggregated measure of financial development, such as access, depth, and efficiency, each interacting with currency swaps.Findings ― The findings suggest that currency swaps are essential for trade and exhibit a large trade effect, especially for countries with relatively low levels of financial development. The paper substantiates empirical evidence indicating disparities in financial development across countries, and such differences are important in determining trade patterns. Implication ― Strong financial systems promote trade in advanced economies, whereas the opposite holds true for developing countries. The examination of the influence of financial systems on trade through empirical tests remains important on the research agenda of policymakers and researchers, especially those looking at industry-level import and export data.Originality ― The study delves into the nexus between financial development and trade within the framework of the Central Bank bilateral currency swap network by highlighting the role of financial institutions and market size (depth), activity (access), and efficiency. In addition, it addresses the drawbacks of previous empirical research that largely focuses on the private credit-to-GDP ratio as a key proxy for financial development.

Virtual Water Embodied in Interregional Energy Trade in China: A City-Level Analysis.

Large volumes of water are used in energy production for both primary (e.g., fuel extraction) and secondary energy (e.g., electricity). In countries such as China, with a large internal trade in fuels and long-distance transmission grids, this can result in considerable water inequalities. Previous research focused on the water impacts of energy production at the national and provincial levels, which is too coarse to identify the spatial differences and make specific case studies. Here, we take the next step toward a spatially explicit economically integrated water-use for energy assessment by combining a bottom-up assessment approach with a city-level multiregional input-output model. Specifically, we examine the water consumption of energy production in China, distinguishing between water for primary and secondary energy at the level of coal mines, oil and gas fields, and power plants for the first time. Of the total energy-related freshwater consumption of 4.9 Gm3 in 2017, primary energy accounted for 19% (940 Mm3) and secondary energy accounted for 81% (3955 Mm3). Coal was the largest water consumer for both primary and secondary energy (540 and 3880 Mm3, respectively), with both oil (361, and 0.5 Mm3, respectively) and gas (7 and 69 Mm3, respectively) also consuming large amounts. Intercity virtual water, that is, water embodied in energy trade across cities, reached 54% (2.6 Gm3) of energy-related freshwater consumption. Across China, 32% of cities see a bilateral trade in secondary- and primary-energy-related virtual water (e.g., Daqing city exports virtual water embodied in primary fuel to other cities that is then used to produce electricity in those cities, part of which is used back in Daqing via transmission). For these 32% of cities, 73% export more virtual water than import and 27% import more virtual water than export. This study reveals significant differences in city-level virtual water patterns (e.g., scale and direction) between primary and secondary energy to provide information for cities about their virtual water inflow and outflow and the potential collaboration partners for water management.

Au-delà de la traversée : The Transatlantic Slave Trade within Prerevolutionary Saint Domingue

Abstract: Prior to the 1791 revolution, three-quarters of a million captive Africans were dragged to Saint Domingue through the transatlantic slave trade. Re-creating these Africans' pathways of forced migration after their arrival in the island reveals the existence of a large, sophisticated, and well-organized intracolonial slave trade on Saint Domingue that has largely escaped the attention of historians. Slave ship captains steered their vessels to different locations within the colony depending on the age, health, ethnicity, and gender of their captives, determining where in the island enslaved people would likely spend the remainder of their lives. Colonial slave traders then organized sales that were designed to sort physically diverse captives and distribute them to socially and racially diverse colonial buyers. Africans moved away from such sales to remarkably varied fates: many were marched to sugar, coffee, indigo or cotton plantations; others were forced to work as servants or apprentices in port cities; and still more were held in urban barracoons and later resold, sometimes hundreds of miles away. Enslaved people were thus forced through an intracolonial slave trade that powerfully determined their often-divergent fates and began to acclimatize them to the brutalities of colonial life.